Changing Forces, Changing City By Kim Walesh, City of San Jose
The world is becoming more urban 10% 50% 75% 1900 2008 2050
We face critical decisions about the kind of city San Jose should become in the future
We know the next 30 years will be fundamentally different than the last
We need to plan for San Jose to succeed in an uncertain future
Consider how we can anticipate and harness forces of change Demographic Economic Environmental
Demographics: Dramatic Shifts
Growth shifts to seniors, young adults
What Will Aging Boomers Want? Dan May
Young professionals are key to prosperity
Live First/Work Second is their mantra
Young professionals prefer central city locations 1980: 10% more likely 2000: 33% more likely
USC Demographic Futures Project Immigrants are essential for workforce growth!! Immigrants and children of immigrants!! 100% of net additions to CA workforce
Increased workforce reliance on children of immigrants 1980-2005 +8.1 million 2005-2030 +6.0 million
A community of newcomers: ranked #1 nationally 36.4% Foreign-Born 10.2% Arrived Since 2000
Global brain circulation accelerates innovation
Cities that can t attract young professionals and immigrants will shrink!
Household structure will shift
Households without children become the strong majority 1960 2000 2030 Households with children Households without children --single person households 48% 33% 27% 52% 67% 73% 13% 26% 29%
Rapid growth in single households, especially women
Significant Change in Housing Demand Projected Nationally!! Nationally, households without children will account for close to 90% of new housing demand to 2030; singleperson households will account for 33%!! Demand for attached and small-lot housing will exceed current supply by 35 million units, while demand for large-lot housing will actually be less than current supply!! Growing preference for compact, walkable neighborhoods among single adults, empty nesters, and couples w/out children
Today, SJ Has Slightly Lower Share of Households Without Children Households with children Households without children --single person households San Jose 2007 Nation 2007 37% 31% 63% 69% 22% 27% Households without children are still a strong majority in San Jose; one in five is a single household.
Changed SJ Housing Demand to 2030: 87% New Household Growth Is 55+
After 2030, Growth in Family-Age Households Resumes
Economics: Cities Compete on Global Stage
The world is competitive and connected
Economic power is shifting to Asia, growth is in emerging economies
City-regions compete; Many other innovation leaders Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, Richard Florida
Demand will rise for educated workers
Growing demand for collegeeducated workers
Shortages predicted; California is not prepared
Wide Gender Gap in College Graduation
Economic returns to education will increase, widening income gap Late 1970s Today 20% 85%
Creativity fuels innovation Insert triangle: creativity innovation
Right Brain is becoming as important as Left Brain Logical Mathematical Linear Sequential Verbal Rational Intuitive Artistic Nonlinear Simultaneous Visual Emotional
Business: New Ways to Work Emerge
More Entrepreneurs and Free Agents
The mobile, networked office is here
Office space is dramatically underutilized Insert photo of empty cubicles
Everyone doesn t need an office, everyday Fully Mobile Home/ Third Place Internally Mobile Anchor
Mobility cuts costs, lowers carbon footprint, benefits employees Decreases Decreases
Quality places are even more important in age of creativity, mobility
Innovation requires interaction, face-to-face
There is greater reliance on shared amenities and public space Support Services Restaurants Recreation/Fitness Cafes, Coffee
The shift from industrial parks to innovation districts is widespread
Environment: Cities Viewed as Solution
San Jose at Forefront: Grow in Environmentally Sustainable Way
High gas prices are altering the real estate landscape
Growth of suburban housing and outlying communities was predicated on cheap gas
Nationally, home price decline is correlated with auto dependence
Cities will be designed for less driving
On per capita basis, denser cities have less environmental impact
Green dividends will accrue to smart cities
Less driving saves money for families and sparks the economy Portland $2.3 billion Chicago $3.2 billion
We can harness forces of change to be a model city Demographic Economic Environmental
What Do You Think? Kim Walesh Chief Strategist City of San Jose kim.walesh@sanjoseca.gov