Third International IPR-MENA Social Policy Conference on: A new social contract for MENA countries: Experiences from Development and Social Policies Jordan s experience with social and labour market policy reforms Prof. Nidal Katamine 5-6 December 2016 1
Arab spring 2 of 29 2
Content Socio economic indicators Labour market indicators National Employment strategy: Coherence between Economic Policies Poverty alleviation (satellite units) Active labour market programs (ALMP) and supporting institutions Self employment Migrant Policies Syrian Crisis Other socio-economic labour market related policies 3 of 29 3
Jordan: Some Macroeconomic indicators 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Foreign Direct Investment in Jordan (JD Million) 1055 1074 1281 1427 981 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3000 2950 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 Per Capita GDP at Current Market Prices (JD) 2928 2958 2940 2889 2795 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12.00 10.00 8.00 Population (In Millions) 8.80 8.11 6.99 7.43 9.53 10.0 8.0 Change in Nominal GDP at Market Prices 9.1 7.3 8.6 6.6 6.00 6.0 4.7 4.00 4.0 2.00 2.0 0.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4 of 29 Source: CBJ 4
Some socio-economic indicators Indicators Population (In Million) GDP at Current Market Prices value 9.5 26,637 Ref. Year 2015 2015 Unemployment rate (Q2 2016) 14.7% Q2-2016 Inflation rate Illiteracy Rate (Population Age15+) 1.4% females (9.8%) and Males (3.7%). July 2016 2014 Students in Basic Education females (49.2%) Males (50.8%). 2014 5 of 29 5
Jordan Syria Iraq Palestine yemen Indonesia Pakistan Banglsdish Turkey srilanka Phillipine India Sudan Somalia Libya Egypt Morroco USA Others 0.13 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.63 0.64 1.27 Millions 6.61 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Population in Jordan according to Nationality Non- Jordanian 31% Jordanian 69% 2.0 1.0 0.0 6 of 29 Source: DoS 6
Distribution of all population, 2015 Male Female Distribution of Jordanian population, 2015 Females to males around 50%:50% Male Female 7 of 29 Source: DoS
Labour market Indicators Unemployment rates 2014-2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Female Total Male Unemployment rates 10 years ago.. Q2 8 of 29 Q2 Annual Average 8
Labour Market Indicators Unemployed 2015 )209,569( Labour Force 2015 )1,607,599( Employed 2015 )1,398,030( 50.4% Tawjihi دون and توج ه فما below. 63.9% 9.3% دبلوم متوسط Diploma 9.7% 60.0% 40.3% 40.0% 20.0% Bachelor بكالور وس فأعلى and Above 0.0% 26.5% 0.0% 20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0% 0.31 إناث Females 16.0% 0.69 ذكور Males 84.0% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9 0f 29 Dos, NCHRD
Economic Growth and Created Jobs Economic Growth jobs 3.1% 2014 42,000 2.8% 2013 48,571 2.7% 2012 48,068 2.6% 2011 52,888 2.3% 2010 2010 62,813 6.6% 2009 76,316 7.2% 2008 69,092 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 New entrants to the labour market are estimated at 120, 000 per annum. 10 of 29 Dos and CBJ
Economic growth and Employment 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00-0.01 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Despite variation, the employment output elasticity is 0.4-0.5 Employment-output elasticity, 2000-2014, (employment lagged by one year, two year moving average). 0.0 Employment Growth of Jordanians Economic Growth Rate 11 of 29 Calculated based On Dos, CBJ and NCHRD
50 40 30 20 10 Vocational and Technical Training Job Polarization, EU 2010-2010 % changes in labor supply/skills upgrade (ISCED) and labor demand for skills/tasks (ISCO) (Maselli, 2012) Supply Demand 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Net Employment Creation by Sex and Nationality 2007-2013 0 Similarly the middle is missing in Jordan 0 Low-Skilled Medium-Skilled Hgh-Skilled -10-20 J Non-J Male Female The Middles is missing 12 of 29 NES review report
National Employment Strategy (NES) NES has been launched under the patronage of His Majesty in 2012, to concentrate on Employment policies, enhancing the Standard of livings and increase employability, wages and Correct mismatch and enhance SMES Restructure the Economy and increase productivity productivity. Steering committee and technical ones have been established. Reduce unemploym ent 13 of 29 NES Horizons
NES Policies and Economic Growth Spur investment Economic empowerment for females Economic growth Human capital Enhance business environment 14 of 29
Prioritizing sectors: Where to concentrate :value added, trade and/or employment L e v e l o f Skill Level Education The size of the bubble indicts the sector s share of employment Telecommunications Financial and insurance services IT Bubble size = share of employment Air transport Medicine industries s k i l l s Construction electricity and water Health Restaurants and hotels Trade Agriculture Mining Transformative Industries Commercial trading 15 of 29 22/31 International trade
280,263 279,798 286,197 298,342 315,045 324,410 335,707 Migrant Workers and Replacement policies Legal Migrant workers 340,000 330,000 320,000 310,000 300,000 290,000 280,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 More than 60% are Egyptians. 16 of 29 MOL
Jordanians Vs. Migrants..Replacement is the tool Legal Migrants 4% 0% 315,045 Employed 1,398,030 %26 96% %10 %64 Illegal Migrants 0%4% **300,000 unemployed 209,569 40% 51% 96% 9% 17 of 29 Tawjihi and below Bachelor and above Diploma DOS, MOL
Thousands Labour market indicators 2015 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100-893 106 302 توجيهي فما دون Training and replacement 136 19 دبلوم متوسط Correct Mismatch 370 84 12 1 Jordanians المشتغلون Employed االردن ون المتعطلون Unemployed االردن ون Jordanians العمالة Migrants الوافدة بكالوريوس فأعلى Tawjihi and below Diploma Bachelor and above Replacement policies How?? Vocational and technical training 18 of 29
Replacement scenarios 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 Employed (Tawjihi and below) estimates 1,044,340 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Unemployment scenarios 13.0% 12.8% 12.7% 11.9% 10.6% 10.3% 10.1% 9.2% 950,000 900,000 893,341 923,541 938,641 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 850,000 0.0% 800,000 0% 10% 15% 50% 0% 10% 15% 50% البطالةOverall االجمالية (توجيهي below فماand دونTawjihi )البطالة 19 of 29 MOL estimates
Created Jobs and Demand the Evidence 120.0 Created Jobs as according to qualifications 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 28.5 1.3 34.3 0.4 36.0 38.5 0.8 40.9 0.9 1.5 20.0 0.0 65.1 60.7 57.7 50.2 48.4 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 28.5 34.3 36.0 38.5 40.9 بكالور وس فأعلى 5.1 4.5 5.4 10.5 9.2 دبلوم تلمذه مهن ة 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.5 65.1 60.7 57.7 50.2 48.4 ثانوي فما دون 20 of 29 Sorce: DoS
Active Labour Market Programs (ALMP) Employment fairs Micro finance Employment Tools Satellite Units Training and Employment programs 21 of 29 21
808 1446 9535 7427 11252 10350 1944 2266 8940 12309 8358 8388 Ministry of Labour and supporting institutions 15000 10000 5000 0 VTC Training عدد الملتحق ن Trainees المنتظم ن عدد الخر ج ن Graduates 2014 2015 DEF indicators] NET_ Construction sector 15000 10000 5000 0 22 of 29 3000 2000 1000 0 عدد المشتغل ن بفرص عدد الملتحق ن بالتدر ب time دائمة Full ف قطاع االنشاءات Trainees عمل 2014 2015 workers عدد فرص العمل عدد المشار ع Projects الممولة Jobs المولدة created 2014 2015 63% of the beneficiaries are females Source: MOL, VTC, NET, DEF
Satellite Units 23 of 29 23
MoL Procedures toward mitigating the impact of the Syrian crisis Finalizing Jordan Compact The Rule of origin (RoO) instructions to encourage investments. The Target for 2016 around 50,000 work permits. Encouraging Employment intensive programs (EIP) (KfW, ILO, GIZ) to create more jobs. Stop recruitment of new Migrants Grace periods for issuing work permits for Syrians Contact unions and cooperatives to issue work permits in agriculture and construction sectors. Relaxed inspection campaigns. Daily work permits are increasing sharply. 24 of 29 24
Registered Syrians on UNHCR data base 25 of 29 UNHCR
14,531 12,262 5,883 5,328 4,543 3,481 3,076 2,451 2,101 2,067 1,782 1,643 1,555 1,377 1,146 1,102 1,093 1,008 84,067 The Distribution of Registered Syrians on UNHCR data base Education level (18 years and above) profession 515,887 Refugees have reported their educational status 79,500 Refugees have reported having no education 66,951 Refugees have not provided any data 233,500 Adults above and equal age 18 170,915 Adults reported on the current or previous occupation 62,585 Adults reported no occupation 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-26 of 29 ACCOUNTANTS ELECTRONICS SECONDARY MOTOR VEHICLE BLACKSMITHS AND PRIMARY EDUCATION BAKERS, PASTRY - HAIRDRESSERS, BARB COOKS CARPENTERS AND TAILORS, DRESSMAKE GENERAL MANAGERS SALES SALESPERSONS CAR, TAXI AND VAN FARMERS (CROP AND BUILDERS FARM-HANDS & HOUSEKEEPERS UNHCR
Number of Syrian Work permits 35000 30000 27045 27,783 28,543 29975 31864 32451 25000 20000 15000 11715 10000 6468 5000 3000 3150 3200 3800 0 27 of 29
Other Socio-Economic Labour market related policies Minimum wage Tripartite committee to revise the minimum wage taking into consideration: Standard of livings, inflation rate, competiveness of the economy, cost of production..etc. Child labour Enforce the labour law Anti-Human trafficking Detailed inspection Enforce law Follow international standards. 28 of 29 28
Thank you Q & A 29