1 RUSSIA S SYRIAN MILITARY SURPRISE: STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS FROM A WIKISTRAT WARGAME President Putin s decision to begin the withdrawal of most of his forces from Syria is sensible. Having stabilized the Assad regime and reestablished Moscow s role as a player in the Middle East, this move also reduces the danger that the Russians could suffer a politically disastrous defeat or else are dragged more deeply into the conflict. Between March 8 and 11, 60 Wikistrat analysts wargamed a scenario positing a violent regime change in Syria and exploring the likelihood and consequences of Russia s increased commitment therein. The overall conclusion of more than 150 policy options created by Wikistrat s analysts was that while Russia could hardly sit out such a red-line event (regime change), an increased presence in Syria would represent both a political and military risk that Putin is not likely to take. While Russia has the ability to project more force into the war (and in the process appear to have a dramatic impact on the immediate tactical situation on the battlefield), the longer-term risks in such a move seem to outweigh the opportunities. Any such move would leave Moscow dangerously exposed: The main factions are all strong enough to not be easily defeated, but are not individually strong enough to win. The initial Russian intervention had been to prevent momentum swinging decisively against Assad, and has been successful in reversing that process. However, any thought of a military victory overall is still wholly premature. Moscow thus had to identify a good enough interim position at which to begin to withdraw from the conflict or double down on an openended commitment which would require escalation. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2016, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
2 This is a conflict in which influence is bought by blood and treasure: By its willingness to commit its forces directly into Syria, Moscow has become a more significant player than the U.S., which is much more limited in its role. However, more commitment also means more vulnerability. The wargame explored ways in which the Russian contingent in Syria was vulnerable to both conventional military reverses and terrorist attacks. Given his public persona and private inclinations, had the Russians suffered a severe reversal in Syria, Putin would likely have been tempted to intervene more deeply, not to withdraw. Even if in the long term this was to Russia s detriment, his unwillingness to look weak would push him this way. Thus, it is a sensible measure on his part to scale back the Syrian commitment before this dilemma presents itself; one of the findings of the wargame was that the Kremlin s political impulses could outweigh the priorities of commanders on the ground. Russia s greatest challenge was from the first to find the right and delicate balance between supporting Assad and not being so deeply mired in the conflict that withdrawal would become impossible. The Wikistrat wargame demonstrated that any escalation of the Russian role in Syria might be able to generate tactical successes on the battlefield but would not bring any lasting victory, would force Russia into a spiral of deeper engagement, and carried with it serious geopolitical costs. The Kremlin s move was never just or even primarily about Assad and his future, or even necessarily about Russia s position in Syria. It was also about forcing the West to abandon its efforts to diplomatically isolate Moscow, reopening dialogue over Ukraine and distracting a restive Russian public. All of these aims have been accomplished. Thus, just as his decision to intervene was a surprise game-changer that wrongfooted the West and revised the situation on the ground, so too Putin s equally surprise decision to partially withdraw seems a sensible and even statesmanlike move. The findings of the Wikistrat wargame demonstrated why Putin s decision to withdraw forces from Syria was a sensible thing to do. The caution exhibited by the Russia team with regard to its deeper involvement in the Syrian conflict even in such an extreme scenario as violent regime change was a clear indication that absent major shocks, the reverse (a decreasing presence) was the more likely path for Russia to take.
3 Among the 60 analysts who participated in the simulation, almost 50 percent hold a PhD on a relevant topic. Furthermore, 36 participants were ranked as Experts or Senior Analysts, bringing in extensive academic and professional experience in their respective fields of expertise. MILITARY AND COUNTERTERRORISM 23.3% MIDDLE EAST 18.3% RUSSIA 21.7% EUROPE 6.7% NORTH AMERICA 5% OTHER (economy, technological trends, energy security, demographics, etc.) 25% Analysts were divided into four teams which responded to the requirements of each cycle of the wargame by creating policy options aimed at improving the position of the actor they were representing. An impressive 163 policy proposals were created in the four days of the exercise. At the end of every cycle, analysts voted for their preferred policies; only those policy proposals which got the most endorsements from team members were taken into account by the Control Team in preparing the next cycle of the game. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2016, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
4 RUSSIA S SYRIAN MILITARY SURPRISE WARGAME OVERVIEW MARCH 8 11, 2016 ANALYTIC TEAM: 60 M CONTROL TEAM: 4 Russia and Assad Loyalists Iran/Hezbollah- Backed Groups Anti-Damascus/ Western-Backed Rebels ISIS WARGAME LAUNCH ROUND 1 24 HOURS AFTER LAUNCH ROUND 2 48 HOURS AFTER LAUNCH ROUND 3 72 HOURS AFTER LAUNCH ROUND 4 RESULT: 163 POLICY OPTIONS
5 ABOUT US Wikistrat is the world s first crowdsourced consultancy. It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a patent-pending Collaborative Competition methodology to provide a variety of analytic services. Scenario generation, policy planning, risk assessment and red-teaming exercises are conducted by Wikistrat on a real-time, interactive online platform. DISCLAIMER This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, economic, financial planning, trading or any other advice. You should consult with a competent independent financial advisor before making any investment or other decisions and should independently verify information on which you rely. The report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. Without limitation, although we have prepared this report based on sources we believe to be reliable, legally derived, and unbiased, we can provide no assurance with respect to the objectivity or any other aspect of its content. In addition and without limitation, this report may contain predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking or predictive. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We assume no obligation to update the report or any part thereof or to correct any inaccurate or outdated information and reserve the right to remove or modify the report, in each case without notice to you or any other party. Without limitation, this report is subject to the Terms of Service posted on our internet website at www.wikistrat.com. ATTRIBUTIONS [COVER] Встреча с Президентом Сирии Башаром Асадом by Kremlin.ru, licensed under the licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2016, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
RUSSIA S SYRIAN MILITARY SURPRISE: STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS FROM A WIKISTRAT WARGAME For more information on Wikistrat s crowdsourced solutions and systems, contact: info@wikistrat.com www.wikistrat.com