Hofstra University Model United Nations Conference

Hofstra University Model United Nations Conference War for Resources, 2030 Future Crisis Committee Imran Ansari Chairperson

1 Letter from the Chair Dear Delegates, Welcome to HUMUNC 2013 s Future Crisis committee. I have chosen a topic that I find pressing and thought-provoking. In today s international affairs, it is evident that many actions taken by major nations revolve around a constant battle for resources. Regardless of political affiliations, we all acknowledge that there will come a day when we will run out of fossil fuels. This fundamental problem leads major nations to look to alternative sources of energy. The necessity to find energy and fossil fuels will frame our crisis committee. I am expecting great things from all of you during our time together. The crisis staff and I will prepare some great scenarios for you to resolve. This committee will be a challenge for any delegate, and I cannot wait to see all of you rise up and showcase great debate and innovation. I am looking forward to meeting all of you at the conference! Sincerely, Imran Ansari Chair, Future Crisis: War for Resources 2030 iansar1@pride.hofstra.edu

2 Introduction to the Committee The Future Crisis Committee will be conducted as any other Security Council crisis committee. However, because of the committee s nature, there will be a greater dependence on the crisis staff to provide information and research to our delegates. Research will still be critical your success as a delegate, and it is important to start your preparations with this background guide. Below, critical issues regarding the Arctic region and the race for resources are presented. There is also a timeline of events 2013-2030 that create the conditions for the scenario you will encounter during your time at HUMUNC and a section on the international environment of 2030. While this background guide is intended to help prepare you for the conference, it is not a replacement for you own additional research on the topics discussed below and your country s position on these topics. Additional research will be vital to your success on the committee. Position papers are optional. If you decide to write one, such papers should address possible scenarios that generally revolve around potential future conflicts and positions on resources from your state s perspective. As delegates of a future crisis committee, however, be prepared to completely change direction at any point. Crisis committees can often seem overwhelming to even the most experienced delegate. The key is to utilize all the resources available to you. While research is extremely valuable, the crisis staff may prove to be even more so. Delegates should not hesitate to send notes to our crisis staff requesting information. Also, the delegates that stand out will be the ones that initiate a crisis. Any time a delegate would like to create a crisis situation, they must simply send a note. However, as chair I reserve the right to block some crisis initiations if I feel they would derail the progress of the committee. I fully expect to have the best committee at HUMUNC 2013, and I

3 look forward to all of you challenging me and my staff with your thoughtful and innovative positions and approaches to the resource problems of the future. Background: The Race for the Arctic Arctic Resources: Even before 2013, the world has witnessed an extensive push by global powers to explore the Arctic region for its resources. Due to rising global temperatures and the melting of the polar ice caps, areas previously inhospitable to energy exploration may become more viable energy producing regions. The Artic region could be especially important in this regard as it is thought to contain enormous energy resources. Moreover, the Artic could also provide a new major transportation corridor if the melting of the ice caps continues as predicted. The seeming inevitability of previously inaccessible resources becoming accessible and the opening of a major new cost-saving transport route has already driven states to reconsider their positions on the Arctic region and begin preparations for a global race to claim the riches of the North. The U.S. Geological Survey currently estimates that up to eighty-four percent of the world s resources are offshore. The Arctic region has a particular abundance of resources, with an estimated twenty-two percent of the world s overall energy resources located in the region. Specifically, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that thirteen percent of the world s undiscovered oil and thirty percent of the world s undiscovered natural gas is located in the Arctic. 1 This abundance of resources has already led states to increase their presence and capabilities in the region and could eventually contribute to disputes. 2

4 Under international maritime law, countries are able to pursue economic activity out to 200 miles from their shore. These 200 miles are referred to as a country s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Countries are able to fully control economic activities in this area. They are able to regulate, tax, or prohibit any economic activity in their EEZ. This would explicitly allow countries to exclusively drill and search for natural resources within this 200 mile range. Through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), this EEZ can be extended to 350 miles from shore if it can be shown that the continental shelf extends that far. As of 2012, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Russia have all submitted territorial claims in the Arctic under the EEZ 350 mile extension provision in UNCLOS. The United States, not part of UNCLOS, is unable to submit any territorial claims in the region and is not part of the negotiation processes to settle territorial claims currently under way. 3 As of 2012, Russia controls about half of all resources within the Arctic. Of the available oil and natural gas, for example, Russia claims thirteen percent and eighty-seven percent, respectively. 4 To protect and possibly even increase its Arctic claims, Russia has taken provocative steps in the past. For example, on August 2, 2007 a Russian expedition to the North Pole planted a Russian flag at the resource-rich Lomonosov Ridge. While planting a flag has no meaning under international law, this symbolic gesture did alarm competitor states in the Arctic, especially Canada and Denmark that also have made claims to the ridge. 5 While states found ways to de-escalate tensions and find ways to settle territorial and resource disputes peacefully thus far, much disagreement remains and states like Russia will not easily give up their claims in the Arctic. Thus, the potential for future conflict is real. Militarization of the Arctic: The militarization of the Arctic has already begun. Although the region is less militarized than many around the globe, by Arctic standards, the region is already

5 buzzing with military activity, and experts believe that will increase significantly in the years ahead. 6 For example, after Russia announced it would deploy troops in the Arctic to defend its interests in the region in 2011, Canada conducted an exercise involving 1,200 troops and multiple fighter and transport aircraft. 7 This 2011 exercise was Canada s largest military exercise in the region to date, but certainly not its first as in recent years it has frequently conducted exercise of this nature in the Arctic. Finland, Norway, and Sweden, among other states, have conducted similar unilateral exercises. Multilateral military exercises have also occurred in the region. In 2012, Norway led exercise called Cold Response that involved 16,300 troops from fourteen different NATO member-nations, including the U.S., Canada, France, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. 8 The exercise, which pointedly did not include Russia, was intended to test state capabilities in the harsh conditions of the Arctic for high intensity warfare, terrorism, and other potential threat. 9 Long-term multilateral planning for regional security issues is also well under way, with the seven major Arctic powers gathering in May 2012 to discuss ways of ensuring peace in the Arctic. 10 Diplomatic Activity: While militarization of the Arctic continues and is unlikely to abate in the future, there have been diplomatic efforts to ease the possible tensions in the region that result from competing territorial claims and the militarization of the region. For example, a process of negotiation that began in the 1970s led to a treaty between Russia and Norway that clearly defined an agreed upon boundary between the states in the Barents Sea. This was a positive step, as the Barents Sea is rich with resources and an important southern gateway to the Arctic region. 11

6 In addition to bilateral efforts, there have been small steps toward multilateral arrangements to cope with potential problems resulting from competition in the Arctic region. Stemming from increasing concern about the ecological and other concerns in the Arctic, the Arctic Protection Strategy was created as a cooperative framework for major Arctic nations to coordinate policy to protect the region s environment. This framework provided the basis for the creation of the Arctic Council, formed in 1996 with the Ottawa Declaration. A high-level intergovernmental forum, many states with interests in the region have joined this council with the intention of fostering cooperation, coordination, and interaction among Arctic nations. Member states of the council include Canada, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. 12 Northwest Passage: Another pivotal factor in international relations related to the Arctic revolves around the Northwest Passage, which is located in the north of Canada and passes between Alaska and Russia. With Arctic ice melting, the passage is becoming more open to shipping. Satellite photos show the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is shrinking by about 3%-4% each decade, says John Falkingham, chief of ice forecasting for the Canadian Ice Service. 13 The melting has accelerated, he says, to a rate of about 8% per decade since 2000. As a result of the multi-national voyages that have occurred in the passage, the United States considers it to be an international strait. However, in 1973 Canada proclaimed it to be an internal waterway. 14 Though the United States has agreed to disagree over the years, Canada has considered this to be an issue of national sovereignty. In 2006, Prime Minister Harper vowed to increase defense spending specifically with regard to the passage by, at least in part, building three armed icebreaking ships. The economic tumult of recent years forced Canada to scale back on defense spending, but it still

7 plans to add to their Northwest Passage capabilities with eight ice-capable Arctic Patrol Ships (AOPS). 15 The Northwest Passage will be crucial in future years for trade. In 2006, there was only one month of the year when the ice would melt enough for ice-strengthened vessels to pass through the passage. As the ice-caps continue to melt, much more of a typical year will see ice in the passage recede enough so that regular shipping vessels will be able to pass. If this occurs, the Northwest Passage would make shipping from Europe to Asia significantly cheaper. Using the Panama Canal, this trip would be 12,600 nautical miles, while it would only be 7,900 miles using the Northwest Passage. 16 Summary of the Issue up to 2013: Clearly competition over the Arctic, both in terms of resources as well as in transport, has heated up in recent years. There have been efforts to peacefully settle competing claims in the region as well as international forums created to help ease tensions among states with interests in the Arctic. However, as U.S. Admiral James Stavridis claimed in 2010 while he was the highest-ranking NATO office in Europe, for now, disputes in the north have been dealt with peacefully, but climate change could alter that equilibrium. 17 That is, as Arctic ice continues to melt and more of the region is open to resource exploitation, states may drive harder and harder to claim their share of the riches found in the north. As political scientist Rob Huebert claims, We have an entire ocean region that had previously been closed to the world now opening up there are numerous factors coming together that are mutually reinforcing themselves, causing a buildup of military capabilities in the region this is only going to increase as time goes on. 18

8 2013-2030 Timeline In 2013, with Canada as the chair of the Arctic Council, debate intensifies over the issue of opening up membership in the council to Asian states. 19 In 2016, after years of this intense debate, China, India, and Japan become permanent observers of the Arctic Council. In 2016, Canada s Arctic naval facility at Nanisivik opens and will serve as a re-fueling station for its arctic patrol ships. In 2017, Canada makes a statement condemning the United States and all other nations for attempting to use the Northwest Passage. In 2017, seasonal ice recedes to the point that the Northwest Passage can be utilized as a trade route. 20 In 2019, after being plagued by delays, Canada s eight ice capable arctic patrol ships enter into service. 21 In 2020, Germany and Norway launch a joint military exercise along Norway s northern border with the Arctic. As international tensions regarding the Arctic become more and more evident, the German Prime Minister is quoted as saying that this exercise is aimed at fostering positive relations between German and Norway and is not an aggressive act. In 2025, Russia reaches an agreement with China to expand trade relations. In this agreement, Russia grants China partial access to their Arctic resources in exchange for the removal of all non-tariff trade barriers. In 2028, Japan sends an ice-breaking shipping vessel through the Northwest Passage to Europe, without consent of Canadian government. In 2029, Canada and Japan meet to discuss usage of the Northwest Passage. Canada agrees to be more open to letting ships from Japan and other states use the passage, thus establishing a precedent for potential negotiations over the rights to and usage of the Northwest Passage.

9 The World in 2030: An Altered Geopolitical Landscape In 2030, the geopolitical landscape of the world has changed drastically. Populations have continued to urbanize, with nearly sixty percent of people worldwide living in urban centers. Most of this urban growth is in Africa, with Asia not far behind. Urban centers are the most significant generators of economic activity, responsible for nearly eighty percent of the world s economic growth. 22 While this growth has benefited many and there has been a rise in overall affluence that has generated a larger middle class worldwide, this type of growth has put even more strain on the world s shrinking pool of all kinds of available resources. For example, the sustained economic growth that has allowed an explosion in affluent urban populations around the world has led to a fifty percent increase in demand for food over 2013 levels. 23 Global climate change has added to this problem, as changing weather patterns have altered global food production and created regions that are much less productive in the agricultural sector than in previous eras. This has disproportionately hit developing states, especially parts of the Middle East and sub-saharan Africa. As a result of these developments, in 2030 as many as thirty-six states with a total population of 1.4 billion people face dire situations regarding access to water and land for agricultural purposes. 24 Worldwide demand for energy has also increase substantially. Due to significant increases in global population combined with an expanding middle class, demand for energy has grown fifty percent over 2013 levels. 25 There has also been a shift in energy production, with traditional importers of energy become net exporters due to new technologies that allow previously inaccessible sources of energy to be tapped. This new production from a few states, however, does not meet overall world demand.

10 The 2030 international distribution of power among states is significantly different than in 2013. Asia has surpassed North America and Europe as the global center of power, displayed in terms of the size of Asian economies, populations, overall military spending, and technological investment. 26 While the United States is still clearly a leading state, China has surpassed it in terms of size of the economy. Brazil and India have conditioned to rise as major powers, and Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, Turkey, and other states have become even more important regional powers. European states, Japan, and Russia all still key players in international politics have all experience relative decline. 27 As technology has diffused throughout the international system, even smaller, economically constrained states have been able to invest in weapons that have the potential to destabilize entire regions. Terrorism continues to be an international problem, with some terrorist organizations capitalizing on the discontent associated with shifts in international power, resource scarcity, climate change, and other factors to continue to recruit new members. Country Positions United States: The U.S. is heavily involved in the Arctic. Relations between the U.S. and Canada have become tenser after years of dispute over the Northwest Passage. Militarily, the U.S. remains one of the most capable states in the international system. To protect its longstanding interest in maintaining open sea-lanes for the purposes of international trade, the U.S. has maintained a particularly strong navy. China: With the world s largest economy and population, China is a global superpower. As such, it has become assertive in the Arctic region. Since joining the Arctic Council as an

11 observer and establishing its pact with Russia, China has become significantly more relevant in all Arctic actions moving forward. Russia: Russia controls a large portion of resources in the Arctic region. This gives the Russian government significant leverage when dealing with other countries with interests in the region. Russia has long-held claims in the Arctic region, displayed with the 2007 statement by Artur Chilingarov, the leading Russian polar explorer, that the Arctic has always been Russian. 28 France: France, which has been somewhat active in the Arctic region, has played the role of mediator in many of these discussions regarding the Arctic. As a permanent member of the Security Council, it will be their job to advise and aid other countries in these discussions. UK: Similar to France, the United Kingdom has played the role of mediator in discussions over issues in the Arctic. With its fiscal strength, significant naval capabilities, and permanent member status, the UK will also aid and advise countries in all discussions that occur regarding the Arctic. Ukraine: Ukraine s relations in the Arctic are primarily tied to their cooperation with Denmark. In 2009 and then again in 2011, the two militaries came together to carry out Operation Northern Force in the Arctic Circle. These operations continue to occur in the years leading up to 2030. Canada: Canada has been one of the more aggressive countries with regard to Arctic issues. In 2011, Canada conducted one of the largest military exercises the Arctic had seen at that point. Canada has been assertive in protecting their claim to sovereignty over the Northwest Passage. Canadian actions in the Arctic region have, at times, led to a great deal of hostility towards Canada from countries.

12 Norway: Norway has been active in the Arctic region. As described above, Russia and Norway had a long-standing territorial dispute in the Barents Sea. Although this was settled with a 2010 agreement, this or another similar dispute may escalate in the future. Norway has bolstered its relations with Germany through their joint military exercise in 2020. This relationship will be pivotal in the Arctic. Venezuela: Venezuela has maintained its position as an oil exporting country through the years. It has also partnered with Russia in an effort to better utilize indigenous oil deposits. In 2013, a Russian oil company, Rosneft, began to invest more than seventeen billion dollars in the Venezuelan oil industry. 29 Mexico: Though Mexico was once one of the largest oil producers and exporters, its oil production peaked in 2008 and has steadily declined since. 30 Because of this decline, Mexico will attempt to become a more active player in the Arctic region to make up for its declining domestic energy resources. Pakistan: For Pakistan, the dominant foreign policy issue is always its relations with India. Moreover, Pakistan is potentially vulnerable to many of the problems associated with the economic, development, food, and other resource conditions of the 2030 world. Japan: Japan became an observer in the Arctic Council in 2016, giving it more say in Arctic discussions. Japan has also sent ships through the Northwest Passage. Though Canada and Japan came to a resolution regarding the passage of that ship, it is clear that Japan is attempting to show relevance in Arctic relations.

13 India: India has become a permanent observer in the Arctic Council. As a fairly wealthy but still developing state that requires tremendous resources for its continued growth, India is aiming to become active in discussions with those states that control Arctic resources. Libya: Libya has long been a major oil exporter. Much of the oil received by the European Union comes from Libya. Libya will continue to be crucial in the supply of oil to major power. As such, it will play an interesting role in the context of the race for resources in the Arctic. Nigeria: As of 2010, Nigeria had the largest oil production in Africa and the sixth largest in the world. Like Libya, Nigeria will continue to play a major role in the world resource market because of its significant oil production and could play an interesting role as the race for resources heats up in the Arctic.

14 1 Holland, Andrew. "Race for Arctic Energy Resources Shows Need for U.S. to Ratify Law of the Sea Treaty." Consumer Energy Report, 14 May 2012, http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2012/05/14/race-for-arctic-energy-resources-shows-needfor-u-s-to-ratify-law-of-the-sea-treaty/. 2 "World's armies circle as Arctic warms to reveal untapped supplies of oil and gas." NBCNews.com, 16 April 2012, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/16/11222215- worlds-armies-circle-as-arctic-warms-to-reveal-untapped-supplies-of-oil-and-gas?lite. 3 Holland, Andrew. "Race for Arctic Energy Resources Shows Need for U.S. to Ratify Law of the Sea Treaty." Consumer Energy Report, 14 May 2012, http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2012/05/14/race-for-arctic-energy-resources-shows-needfor-u-s-to-ratify-law-of-the-sea-treaty/ 4 "Oil and Gas," The Arctic: Russian Geographical Society, http://arctic.ru/natural-resources/oiland-gas. 5 "Too much to fight over." The Economist, 16 June 2012. Web. http://www.economist.com/node/21556797. 6 "World's armies circle as Arctic warms to reveal untapped supplies of oil and gas." NBCNews.com, 16 April 2012, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/16/11222215- worlds-armies-circle-as-arctic-warms-to-reveal-untapped-supplies-of-oil-and-gas?lite. 7 "Too much to fight over." The Economist, 16 June 2012. Web. http://www.economist.com/node/21556797. 8 NATO Exercise Cold Response 2012: A Crisis Response Operation or Provocation to Russia? Natowatch.org, http://www.natowatch.org/node/635. 9 "World's armies circle as Arctic warms to reveal untapped supplies of oil and gas." NBCNews.com, 16 April 2012, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/16/11222215- worlds-armies-circle-as-arctic-warms-to-reveal-untapped-supplies-of-oil-and-gas?lite. 10 Ibid. 11 The Treaty on Maritime Delimitation between Norway and Russia. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/campaigns/delimitation.html?id=614002. 12 The Arctic Council, http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/about-us.

15 13 Dube, Rebecca. "As ice melts, debate over Northwest Passage heats." USA Today, 4 April 2006, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-04-03-nwpassage-debate_x.htm. 14 Ibid. 15 Fillingham, Zachary. "Canada s Arctic Defense Policy: Grand Theory, Stunted Practice." Geopolitical Monitor, 18 June 2012, http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/canadas-arcticdefense-policy-grand-theory-stunted-practice-4691/. 16 Dube, Rebecca. "As ice melts, debate over Northwest Passage heats." USA Today, 4 April 2006, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-04-03-nwpassage-debate_x.htm. 17 "Too much to fight over." The Economist, 16 June 2012. Web. http://www.economist.com/node/21556797. 18 "World's armies circle as Arctic warms to reveal untapped supplies of oil and gas." NBCNews.com, 16 April 2012, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/16/11222215- worlds-armies-circle-as-arctic-warms-to-reveal-untapped-supplies-of-oil-and-gas?lite. 19 Murthy, Raja. "China, India enter heating-up Arctic race." Asia Times. 25 Jan. 2012, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/south_asia/na25df01.html. 20 Fillingham, Zachary. "Canada s Arctic Defense Policy: Grand Theory, Stunted Practice." Geopolitical Monitor, 18 June 2012, http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/canadas-arcticdefense-policy-grand-theory-stunted-practice-4691/. 21 Ibid. 22 Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. The National Intelligence Council, 2012, http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends. 23 Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed. The National Intelligence Council, 2008, http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-world. 24 Ibid. 25 Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. The National Intelligence Council, 2012, http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends. 26 Ibid.

16 27 Ibid. 28 "Too much to fight over." The Economist, 16 June 2012. Web. http://www.economist.com/node/21556797 29 Frolova, Maria. "Russia to develop Venezuelan oil and gas." The Voice of Russia. 31 January 2013, http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_01_31/russia-to-develop-venezuelan-oil-and-gas/. 30 Hargreaves, Steve. "Mexico's big oil problem." CNN Money, CNN.com, 17 August 2012, http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/17/news/economy/mexico-oil/index.html.