Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and International Students Casey Warman Dalhousie University, Department of Economics October 7, 2016 1/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Quick overview of Economic Outcomes of Immigrants Immigrants have tended to do worse in terms of economic outcomes for more recent cohorts Falling entry earnings and generally the earnings assimilation has not been fast enough to catch up to the average earnings of the Canadian born... wide range of estimates of the Fiscial Burden... Policy changes for better selection. 2/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Earnings by Immigrant Cohort conditioning on Education, Males ( Females ).6.5.4.3.2.1 0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Years since migration 1960 64 1965 69 1970 74 1975 79 1980 84 1985 89 1990 94 1995 99 2000 04 Warman, C. and Worswick, C. Canadian Journal of Economics (2015); Data: 1991-2006 Census 3/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Important differences depending on Province/Region 4/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Weekly Earnings (e β 1) by Cohort and Prov., Males. ( Females ).4.2 0.2.4.4.2 0.2.4 BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Cohort 1965 69 1970 74 1975 79 1980 84 1985 89 1990 94 1995 99 2000 04 Ontario Quebec Atlantic 0 5 10152025303540 0 5 10152025303540 0 5 10152025303540 Years since migration Source: Warman, 2014; Data 1991-2006 Census 5/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Occupational Analytical Requirements by Cohort and Prov., Males. 1.5 0.5 1 1.5 0.5 1 BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Cohort imm 1970 74 1975 79 1980 84 1985 89 1990 94 1995 99 2000 04 Source: Warman, 2014; Data 1991-2006 Census 6/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Occupational Physical Strength Requirements by Cohort and Prov., Males..4.2 0.2.4.6.4.2 0.2.4.6 BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Cohort imm 1970 74 1975 79 1980 84 1985 89 1990 94 1995 99 2000 04 Source: Warman, 2014; Data 1991-2006 Census 7/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Traditionally: Likely only to come and stay in Atlantic Provinces if going to be successful economically. 8/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Immigration rate Pandey and Townsend, 2011 9/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Retention rates: Atlantic Provinces Pandey and Townsend, 2011 10/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
How to choose immigrants who will integrate economically? Canadian Experience Class type programme successful applicant has Canadian work experience / education double selection process 11/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Earnings by Admission Category, Males ( Females ) Family Skilled Worker S/D Business PA Business S/D Prov Nominee PA Prov Nominee S/D CEC PA CEC SD Refugee.4.2 0.2.4.6 Percent Difference versus Skilled Workers PA Warman, C. and Worswick, C. (2016); Data: IMDB 1990-2012 12/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Reason s for CEC TFWs not experience the same difficulty with the portability of their human capital skills have already been recognized by at least one Canadian employer International students obtained their education in Canada should receive a normal return to their education presumably their language skills and Canada-specific knowledge should be appropriate to the Canadian labour market 13/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
TFW better outcomes than recent immigrants (Warman 2010) Former TFWs better early outcomes than other Economic Immigrants (Sweetman and Warman (2014) and Hou and Bonikowska (2015)) Mixed outcomes for Former International Students, but still early... 14/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Returns to Experience, Full Sample VM NVM Warman (2010) The Portability of Human Capital of Male Temporary Foreign Workers in Canadian Immigration: Economic Evidence for a Dynamic Policy Environment, Chapter 8 15/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Post-secondary Education Large number of international students (good pool of potential immigrants...) Potential considerations: Language skills acquired by immigrants in schools where large proportion of students do not speak English(/French)... little emphasis placed on writing skills Impacts how education is delivered and how students are assessed. Also have an impact on quality of education of domestic students 16/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Other considerations/future needed research: What is the required Age at arrival and Economic Success? Net contributor... Need to earn a certain income to be a net contributor (cover own social services) Lifecycle cover retirement (may look good in a cross-section...) Immigration has only a negligible impact on average age of population ( although impact likely larger in Atlantic/Rural areas.) 17/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Other Considerations/Tough Decisions... continued Sending immigrants to places with out migration... Locals can t find jobs... Sending immigrants there always make sense?... language ability issues, credential issues, lack of knowledge of local job market... immigrants having problems integrating economically, why expect them to be successful in places the domestic born are not? Cost of servicing small and rural areas is very expensive Cost of water, schooling, roads, hospitals etc... 18/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
NEWS ECONOMY ECONOMY TRENDING Loonie Housing Market Gold CPP Why Canadians are being offered cash to abandon their homes JOSH WINGROVE, BLOOMBERG NEWS September 22, 2016 Last Updated: Sep 22 3:08 PM ET More from Bloomberg News A world away from Canada s glamorous, global cities, a bitter feud divides Little Bay Islands, Newfoundland, a tiny, dying island that has come to represent the grim underbelly of Canada's economic outlook. Josh Wingrove/Bloomberg On the far eastern edge of Canada sits Little Bay Islands, a beautiful, dying village divided by crisis. The fish plant was shuttered half a decade ago, and most supporting businesses as well as the school have closed with it. Perry Locke is among the tiny population that s left. He served as the mayor, the fire chief and now runs the power-generating station. His son was the last student enrolled in town. Fishing villages like this one built Newfoundland and Labrador, a coastal province sent into a tailspin by a fishery collapse, oil-price slump and mounting debt that left it with Canada s most severe fiscal and demographic crisis. The provincial government now is pushing to close places like Little Bay Islands altogether rather than service them, offering Locke and his neighbors at least $250,000 (US$189,000) each to leave and spurring a bitter, three-year fight over whether to cash out or endure. 19/19 It s Casey like a disease. Warman Once Dalhousiea community University gets infected, there s Economic cure outcomes: for it Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Conclusions? TFW & International Students can be a good pool to draw immigrants from Challenges making sure they are successful and are net economic contributors 20/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Earnings by Immigrant Cohort conditioning on Education, Females( Males ).6.5.4.3.2.1 0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Years since migration 1960 64 1965 69 1970 74 1975 79 1980 84 1985 89 1990 94 1995 99 2000 04 Warman, C. and Worswick, C. Canadian Journal of Economics (2015); Data: 1991-2006 Census 21/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Weekly Earnings (e β 1) by Cohort and Prov., Females.( Males ).4.2 0.2.4.4.2 0.2.4 BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Cohort 1965 69 1970 74 1975 79 1980 84 1985 89 1990 94 1995 99 2000 04 Ontario Quebec Atlantic 0 5 10152025303540 0 5 10152025303540 0 5 10152025303540 Years since migration Source: Warman, 2014; Data 1991-2006 Census 22/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Earnings by Admission Category, Females( Males ) Family Skilled Worker S/D Business PA Business S/D Prov Nominee PA Prov Nominee S/D CEC PA CEC SD Refugee.4.2 0.2.4.6 Percent Difference versus Skilled Workers PA Warman, C. and Worswick, C. (2016); Data: IMDB 1990-2012 23/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Visible Minorities with Neither English/French as Mother Tongue from Non-Western Countries( FullSamp ) Warman (2010) The Portability of Human Capital of Male Temporary Foreign Workers in Canadian Immigration: Economic Evidence for a Dynamic Policy Environment, Chapter 8 24/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio
Non-Visible Minorities with Either English/French as Their Mother Tongue from Western Countries( FullSamp ) Warman (2010) The Portability of Human Capital of Male Temporary Foreign Workers in Canadian Immigration: Economic Evidence for a Dynamic Policy Environment, Chapter 8 25/19 Casey Warman Dalhousie University Economic outcomes: Temporary Foreign Workers and Internatio