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Queen s Global Markets A PREMIER UNDERGRADUATE THINK-TANK The U.S. Should Remain in the UN A Debate: Should the U.S. Leave the UN? Ethan Vera, Jeremy Li, Jordan Abramsky 01.25.2018

Agenda What we will be discussing today 1 Introduction 2 Costs of Leaving the UN 2A 2B 2C Undermine a Platform that Benefits Global Development Diminish U.S. Global Leadership Loss of a Useful Political Tool 3 Benefits of Leaving the UN 4 Recommendation: Cost-Benefit Analysis 2

Introduction Overarching Recommendation The United States should remain in the UN, using it as a tool to further national interest and global development Costs of Leaving the United Nations 1 Global Development Leaving would undermine UN s effort to nation-build 2 International Leadership The U.S. would lose its position as the global leader 3 Political Tool The U.S. would no longer be able to use UN sanctions and peace keeping missions as a diplomatic tool Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 3

Purpose of the UN The United Nations has an ambitious and moral charter Four Main Purposes of The United Nations To maintain worldwide peace and security Developing relations among nations Fostering cooperation between nations in order to solve economic, social, cultural, and humanitarian international problems Providing a forum for bringing countries together to meet the UN's purposes and goals Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 5

Deaths (Thousands) The UN Has Been Successful at Nation-Building Nation-building is beneficial for the U.S. The Success of UN-Led Nation-Building Efforts The UN, while subject to failures, has been a greatly positive force in nation building A 2005 RAND Corporation study found the UN to be successful in two out Subtopic of three peacekeeping efforts The Human Security Report (2006) documented a decline in the number of wars, genocides and human rights abuses since the end of the Cold War, and presented evidence that international activism mostly spearheaded by the UN has been the main cause of the decline in armed conflict since the end of the Cold War Importance of Nation Building There are two main reasons nation building is important, particularly to the US: 250 Global Deaths From Civil Conflict 1 The underlying morality of helping those in need (developing nations) 200 150 2 Building other nations supports U.S. development and growth 100 By pulling out of the UN the U.S. would significantly hinder the UN s ability to nation-build 50 Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 0 1990 2003 6

Without the U.S. the UN Wouldn t be Effective Now more than ever is a time for the world to work together against issues US Involvement is Crucial For UN Legitimacy Without the support of US, the UN loses its legitimacy and effectiveness to a great extent International politics on the whole gets affected by the withdrawal of US from multilateralism Weakening of the UN makes smaller states unsafe and vulnerable Protection of their sovereign rights and ensuring their existence as independent states A Time For Unity % of Agency's Revenue Funded By U.S. New technologies will play a critical role in global crises Fiery talk can now lead to unfathomably fatal misunderstandings UN Secretary-General António Guterres (September 2017) From the imminent threat of drone capabilities in the hands of terrorists, to genetically modified pandemic threats and nuclear warfare, the UN is now more important than ever in ensuring global stability Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% US Provides 28% of UN Peacekeeping Budget US Provides 22% of UN General Budget 7

Remaining in the UN is Crucial For a Global Leader There is no viable alternative to U.S. leadership Timeline of United States Intervention 1917: Joins WW1 1942: Joins WW2 1950: Korean War 1960-1970s: Escalation of Vietnam War 1990: Gulf War Subtopic 2011: Libya War 2017: Strike on Syria Pre WW1: Period of Isolationism 1930s: Period of Isolationism 1945: The UN is formed 1960-1970s: Involvement in South America 2003: Iraq War 2014: War on ISIS 2018: Overthrow Venezuelan Government Consequence of Leaving the UN In analyzing numerous case studies there are two ways a global power can lose its power: 1 2 Through the loss of a war or a heavy cost incurred that collapses the country s economy Shifting focus to short-term isolationist policies, slowly withdrawing from the global community By pulling out of the UN the U.S. would begin the second process of losing power Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations Potential Alternatives We must promote trade and investment, liberalization and facilitation through opening up and say no to protectionism Xi JinPing, 2017 Although China has recently supported globalism, in reality they are still a communist dictatorship. The U.S. is better positioned to be a global leader as they are a relatively stable democracy, with decades of experience in global intervention, defending human rights and free trade 9

Years Years The World has Benefited From U.S. Leadership Without the U.S. pushing capitalism and free trade the world would be worse off $60,000 $45,000 $30,000 GDP per Capita Growth United States World American Inventions Benefits All Subtopic $15,000 $0 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 80 75 Life Expectancy 60 Infant Mortality United States World 70 65 60 45 30 55 50 United States World 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 15 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 10

Effective Sanctions Against U.S. Targets International cooperation is far more impactful than individual countries Sanctions Against Iran July 2006 UNSC Resolution 1696 December 2006 UNSC Resolution 1737 March 2007 UNSC Resolution 1747 March 2008 UNSC Resolution 1803 September 2008 UNSC Resolution 1835 June 2010 UNSC Resolution 1929 June 2011 UNSC Resolution 1984 June 2012 UNSC Resolution 2049 July 2015 UNSC Resolution 2231 Sanctions Against North Korea October 2006 UNSC Resolution 1718 Subtopic June 2009 UNSC Resolution 1874 January 2013 UNSC Resolution 2087 March 2013 UNSC Resolution 2094 March 2016 UNSC Resolution 2270 November 2016 UNSC Resolution 2321 August 2017 UNSC Resolution 2371 September 2017 UNSC Resolution 2375 Banned supply of nuclear-related materials and technology, froze assets of key individuals and companies, arms embargo, inspect Iranian banks, ships, and aircrafts... Banned majority of North Korean exports, arms embargo, limited international money transfers, limited imports, clarified a state s right to inspect and destroy suspected related cargo to North Korea... 12

Negotiating with World Powers The ability to veto avoids direct conflicts between the Permanent 5 members of the UNSC When Russia Vetoed Resolution S/2016/846 Russian Foreign Ministry: The text of the document, which was obviously drawn up with Washington's encouragement directly after the United States refused to observe the Russian-US agreements on the Syrian settlement, flagrantly misrepresented the actual state of affairs and had a politically-charged and unbalanced character. The French-proposed document indiscriminately laid the blame for the escalation of tensions in the Syrian Arab Republic solely on the country's authorities and plainly attempted, through a ban on military flights over the city of Aleppo, to afford protection to Jabhat al-nusra terrorists and the militants that have merged with it, despite the UN member states' obligation to fight the terrorist threat with all available means. At the same time, the document ignored the need to promptly initiate an intra-syrian political process, which is being sabotaged by the same Syrian opposition members who are supported and covered by the West in every possible way. 13

Who Uses the Veto Anyways? U.S. has significantly benefited from its veto power since the Cold War During the Cold War USSR: 68 Vetoes, USA: 61 Vetoes Resolution Veto Examples USSR On assistance to Hungary following the 1956 revolt Blocked Japan s application to the UN until 1965 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia 1989 invasion of Afghanistan U.S.A. Blocked Vietnam s application to the UN after 1975 On its activities in support of Contra rebels in Nicaragua, found illegal in 1986 by the International Court of Justice 1983 invasion of Grenada Number of Vetoes by the P-5 UNSC Members 1946-2017 Russia/USSR (106) United States (79) United Kingdom (29) France (16) China (11) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1946-1969 1970-1991 1992-2017 14

Sanctions Without the UN Individual efforts by countries and pacts are far less effective Rounds of Sanctions Against Russia During the Crimean Crisis Time March/April 2014 Countries US, Canada, EU, Australia, Albania, Iceland, Montenegro April 2014 US and EU extends sanctions 2014 - Present Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine, Japan; US, EU, Canada, Australia extends sanctions 15

U.S. Freedom Not Limited by the UN The U.S. has and will continue to sidestep obstacles to desired actions Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Landmark international treaty by 190 countries Agreement to ban development of nuclear weapons and to disarm nuclear arsenals Original nuclear powers abstained: U.S., Russia, UK, France, China Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty U.S. and USSR agreement to limit use of antiballistic missile defense Subtopic system President George W. Bush withdrew in 2001-2002 First time in recent history that the U.S. has withdrawn from a major international arms treaty Invasion of Iraq International Criminal Court Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the UN: I have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN Charter. From our point of view, from the Charter point of view, it was illegal. September 16, 2004 Has the jurisdiction to prosecute individuals for war crimes, international crimes of genocide, and crimes against humanity 124 countries are members, missing India, Indonesia, China U.S. formally withdrew on May 6, 2002 16

Countries Benefits of Leaving the UN Monetary Costs U.S. contributes $8bn a year to the UN Of which $3bn goes to peacekeeping budget Costs the average American 2 cups of coffee a year Empower Enemies Ineffective Actions Rwanda Genocide: 1994 0.5 1mm civilians murdered Cambodian Genocide: 1975-1979 1.7 2mm civilians murdered Restrictive 150 100 UN Jerusalem Resolution 50 0 In Favour Against Abstention Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations During the Korean War the UN pushed to limit General MacArthur's powers. Some claim this led to losing the war Similarly in other conflicts such as Rwanda there has been times were the bureaucracy of the UN has held the U.S. back 18

Recommendation: Cost-Benefit Analysis The United States should remain in the UN, using it as a tool to further national interest and global development The cost of leaving the UN is high The benefit of leaving the UN is low The UN plays a vital role in the world. It both benefits the U.S. and benefits from U.S. membership The UN is not expensive to fund, it is not very restrictive, and still has some value I can predict with absolute certainty that within another generation there will be another world war if the nations of the world do not concert the method by which to prevent it. Woodrow Wilson, 1919 Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 20

Appendix Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 21

Appendix Undermine a Platform that Benefits Global Development USA Pays Less Than It s Contribution To Global GNI Output USA Japan China Germany France United Kingdom Italy Russia Canada South Korea India 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % of UN Budget % of World's GNI Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Bank 22