Political Environment and Congressional Breakdown Charts August 23, 217
Presidential Job Approval: Gallup Polling Gallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 6 Approve Disapprove Trump 216 Win Percentage (46.1%) 58% Disapprove 5 4 37% Approve 3 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 Net (% Approval - % Disapproval) -8-16 -21% -24 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 Net Gallop Presidential Approval Ratings, Aug 21, 217
Gallup Presidential Job Approval by Party Gallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 1 Republicans Independents Democrats 8 79% Republican Approval 6 4 % Independent Approval 2 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 8% Democratic Approval Zoom on Independents 42 35 28 Jan 2-, 217 Jan 3-Feb 5 Feb 6-12 Feb 13-19 Feb 2-26 Feb 27-Mar 5 Mar 6-12 Mar 13-19 Mar 2-26 Mar 27-Apr 2 Apr 3-9 Apr 1-16 Apr 17-23 Apr 24-3 May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May -Jun 4 Jun 5-11 Jun 12-18 Jun 19-25 Jun 26-Jul 2 Jul 3-9 Jul 1-16 Jul 17-23 Jul 24-3 Jul -Aug 6 Aug 7-13 Aug 14-2 % Independent Approval Gallop Presidential Approval Ratings, August 21, 217
Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to Watch *NBC asks Positive/Negative FOX July 16-18 217 12 Registered Voters NBC/WSJ* June 17-2, 217 8 Adults CBS August 3-6, 217 1,111 Adults CNN/ORC August 3-6, 217 1,18 Registered Voters ABC/WP [NEW] August 16-2, 217 1,14 Adults c+41+53 41% 53% Approve -12 c+4+55 4% 55% Approve -15 c+36+58 36% 58% Approve -22 c+4+56 4% 56% Approve -16 c+39+58 39% 58% Approve -19
Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1966 Senate and House Current Trump Approval 37% Gallup August 14-2, 217 Job Approval Avg. Change House Avg. Change Senate Over 6% +3 Seats -2 Seats 5%-6% -12 Seats - 1 Seat Under 5% -4 Seats - 5 Seats House Seats Presidential Approval 7 49% 57% 47% 52% 43% 63% 58% 46% 66% 63% 39% 45% 42% 5 8-12 -15-5 -8-13 -26-3 -48-48 -54-7 1966 197 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 26 21 214-63 Gallop Presidential Approval Ratings, August 21, 217
Direction of the Country NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Right Direction/Wrong Track Polling All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track? 1% 75% Right Direction Undecided Wrong Track 59% Off on the wrong track 5% 25% % % Jan 212 Apr 212 Jun 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Nov 212 Jan 213 Apr 213 Jul 213 Oct 213 Dec 213 Mar 214 Jun 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Dec 214 March 215 June 215 Sept 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 June 216 Aug 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Headed in the right direction Net (% Right Direction - % Wrong Direction) -25-25% Net -5-75 Jan 212 Apr 212 Jun 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Nov 212 Jan 213 Apr 213 Jul 213 Oct 213 Dec 213 Mar 214 Jun 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Dec 214 March 215 June 215 Sept 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 June 216 Aug 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Hart Research Associates (D) Public Opinion Stratagies (R) NBC/WSJ, April 17-2, 217
Party Identification Gallup Polling: Party Affiliation 25 5 75 1 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 28 26 26 25 28 27 27 28 28 3 32 32 3 28 3 3 3 41 42 43 42 4 4 38 37 35 39 36 35 35 38 37 37 36 39 38 38 37 36 3 36 32 32 35 35 36 Democrat Independent Republican 28% Republicans 41% Independents % Democrats -1-7.5-5 -2.5 2.5 5 7.5 1 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-5 -2-2 2-5 -5-2 -1-4 -5-5 -6-4 -1 1 1-4 -5-8 -7-2 -4-3 -6-4 -3-1 Net (% Republican - % Democrat) -1% Net
Party Favorable/Unfavorable Democratic % Favorable Republican % Favorable *NBC asks Positive/Negative NBC/WSJ* April 17-2, 217 9 Adults Pew April 5-11, 217 1,51 Adults CNN March 1-4, 217 1,6 Registered Voters FOX Jan 15-18, 217 1,52 Adults Bloomberg/Selzer Dec 2 - Dec 5, 216 999 Adults c+44+42 % % Democrats +2 c+45+4 45% 4% Democrats +5 c+44+42 44% 42% Democrats +2 c+47+41 47% 41% Democrats +6 c+42+44 42% 44% Republicans +2
The Economy: Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment I. Last six years (21 Present) 125 1 Conference Board Consumer Confidence University of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment 121.1 Consumer Confidence 97.6 Consumer Sentiment 75 5 25 Jan '1 Mar '1 May '1 July '1 Sept '1 Nov '1 Jan '11 Mar '11 May '11 July '11 Sept '11 Nov '11 Jan '12 Mar '12 May '12 July '12 Sept '12 Nov '12 Jan '13 Mar '13 May '13 July '13 Sept '13 Nov '13 Jan '14 Mar '14 May '14 July '14 Sept '14 Nov '14 Jan '15 Mar '15 May '15 Sept '15 Nov '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 July '16 Sept '16 Nov '16 Jan '17 Mar '17 May '17 July '17 II. 198 Present 16 125 9 55 2 Jan '8 Oct '8 July '81 Apr '82 Jan '83 Oct '83 July '84 Apr '85 Jan '86 Oct '86 July '87 Apr '88 Jan '89 Oct '89 July '9 Apr '91 Jan '92 Oct '92 July '93 Apr '94 Jan '95 Oct '95 July '96 Apr '97 Jan '98 Oct '98 July '99 Apr ' Jan '1 Oct '1 July '2 Apr '3 Jan '4 Oct '4 July '5 Apr '6 Jan '7 Oct '7 July '8 Apr '9 Jan '1 Oct '1 July '11 Apr '12 Jan '13 Oct '13 July '14 July '15 June '16 Mar '17 Consumer Confidence Survey July 217 Consumer Sentiment August 217
Obamacare: Tracking Public Attitudes The Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 21. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it? (Rotated - Participants then asked to choose between very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable) Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don t know/refused Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable 1 75 39% Negative 5 25 52% Positive 3/13 4/13 6/13 8/13 9/13 1/13 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 9/14 1/14 11/14 12/14 1/15 3/15 4/15 6/9/15 6//15 8/15 9/15 1/15 11/15 12/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 1/16 11/16 12/16 2/17 3/17 4/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 1 Net (% Positive - % Negative) +13% Net -1-2 3/13 4/13 6/13 8/13 9/13 1/13 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 9/14 1/14 11/14 12/14 1/15 3/15 4/15 6/9/15 6//15 8/15 9/15 1/15 11/15 12/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 1/16 11/16 12/16 2/17 3/17 4/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: August 217
ACHA: Tracking Public Attitudes The Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll As you may know, congress is discussing a health care plan that would repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Given what you know, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it? Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don t know/refused Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable 1 75 5 61% Negative 25 5/17 6/17 7/17 27% Positive Kaiser Health Tracking Poll July 217
What it Takes: 218 Senate Math Can Democrats take the Senate Majority in 218? Current Senate Breakdown by Party Democrats Republicans 48 52 Two Independents - King (ME) and Sanders (VT) caucus with the Democrats 1 Cook Political Report Senate Math for 218 23 12 6 4 4 1 7 43 Democrat-Held Seats Not on Ballot Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican Republican Held Seats Not on Ballot 1 Bottom Line: Democrats need at least three seats to take the the Senate. To do that they need to hold all 25 of their seats up for reelection, win one Republican-held seat in Toss Up, win the seat in Lean Republican column and take one of the seven seats in Solid Republican. Last Ratings Change: August 17, 218
What it Takes: 218 House Math Can Democrats take the House in 218? Current House Breakdown by Party Democrats Republicans 194 24 18.75 217.5 326.25 435 Cook Political Report House Math for 218 175 1 7 1 21 25 187 Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican 435 Bottom Line: Democrats need at least 24 seats. To do that they need win all seats in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic columns. They also need to win all nine seats in Toss Up and 16 of the 21 seats in Lean Republican. Last Ratings Change: August 4, 218