Published on South Asia Analysis Group (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org) Home > BJP: Vajpayee s ascendancy and BJP s decline: An analysis. BJP: Vajpayee s ascendancy and BJP s decline: An analysis. Submitted by zenno on Fri, 09/28/2012-06:07 Note No. 100 A pattern of sharp contradiction between the national acceptability of Vajpayee and decline in the electoral acceptability of his party is emerging. This shows that the coalition experiment at the centre may keep the BJP in power under his leadership, but it may not succeed in achieving its ideological goal for which the party has been striving for last fifty years. The electoral performance of the party right from the Lok Sabha election in 1999 has not kept pace with the growing popularity of Prime minister Vajpayee. The outcome of the State Assembly elections in February this year followed by the Rajya Sabha as well as State Legislative Council elections and the just concluded by-elections indicate that the Vajpayee factor has hardly made any contribution to the growth of the BJP. In 1980,.Vajpayee had called the BJP, " a party with difference." ( L.K.Advani in BJP TODAY, the party organ in its issue dated June 1-15 2000 ) People gradually found merit in his claim and ultimately sent the BJP in Lok Sabha as the single largest party in 1996 election. The historical speech of Vajpayee during the confidence vote of his thirteen-day government made him a political martyr and this further added to the growth of the BJP in 1998 election. Though he was voted to power again in 1999, his popularity did not bring electoral dividends to the BJP. If the on going electoral trend is any indication the growth charts of Vajpayee and BJP are going in
opposite directions. Electoral achievements of the BJP have in the past been due to the active support of about 4000 full timers, 40,000 Shakhas and a large number of front organisations of the RSS. A general impression is gaining ground among the RSS cadres that alliancepartners -friendly to Vajpayee are not that friendly or responsive to them. The perceptual differences between the RSS leadership and the Prime Minister on several issues are known to have made the Sangh cadres slacken in working for the electoral success of the BJP. The Insurance Bill, Lahore Bus journey, Religious places Bill in UP, Deepa Mehta s filming of Water, handling of Indian Airlines hijacking, new economic policies, cabinet approval of Sankhya Vahini project are issues on which the RSS expressed its strong reservations. The Sangh leadership continues to nurse a feeling that Vajpayee Government in the name of globalisation is becoming unmindful of the Swadeshi interests. The Prime Minister however, is not ready to implement the RSS concept of development. His main concern is the stability of the NDA Government and to ensure that it completes its full five- year term. Despite the hiccups, Vajpayee faces no threat to his government from within and on the other hand is treated as one of the shining stars of Sangh Parivar. But it is not a question of survival of Vajpayee as Prime minister. It is a question of survival of BJP as a party in power and for this, the support of RSS is essential for its future electoral performance. Vajpayee government for the present totally depends on the support of its allies and the main focus of the Prime Minister is to keep them in good humour. The allies on the other hand do not reciprocate similar treatment to the state units of the BJP in their states. Though they are in one sense junior partners in central government, they get full advantage of being in power, but the BJP workers and the State leaders do not enjoy similar position in the States. The temperamental Trinamool Congress leader, Mamata Banerjee, the over ambitious Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam Party, Navin Patnayak of Biju Janata Dal, Karunanidhi of DMK, O.P. Chautala of Lok Dal and Nitish Kumar of Samata Party have on many occasions said that if the BJP is leading the government at centre with their help, it should reciprocate and help them to rule in the States.
Confrontation between the state units of the BJP and their regional allies in states from time to time is due to clash of political interests. Each and every time the Prime Minister intervenes to resolve such problems it has been mostly at the cost of the regional units of the BJP. This has had a demoralising effect on party cadres. Thus while on one hand, Vajpayee has emerged as an unquestionable leader in the party and on the other the state units are gradually losing their acceptability among the people. So the party workers ask-. If the state units of the party are not allowed to get more political space for appeasement of the allies, how can they be expected to deliver goods in elections? Even after placating the regional allies by sacrificing the interest of his party, the Prime minister has been getting only issuebased support from them. In Gujarat, when BJP Government lifted the ban imposed by earlier Congress Government on its employee s participation in RSS, the Prime minister had to succumb to the pressure of the opposition, as his coalition partners were not solidly behind him on this issue. The Gujarat Government was compelled to withdraw the order much to the discomfiture of the cadres of Sangh Parivar. The recent Cabinet approval of Sankhya Vahini project with unusual speed reportedly on the pressure of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu has offended the RSS leadership which has expressed strong reservations against the project due to security reasons. No one would deny that by pursuing the new economic policy, the Vajpayee Government has succeeded in improving Indo-US relations, which indirectly has built up pressure on Pakistan as well as on China. On the domestic front, it has silenced the Congress on this issue. But if the electoral performance of the BJP in recent past is any indication, the common people do not seem to have endorsed it! The failure of the BJP leadership to contain the growing trend of I and Mine culture of the party contrary to its ideological We and Our culture, is another factor responsible for the decline of its national acceptability. Jana Krishnamurthi, senior Vice- President of the BJP has in an article published in party organ BJP TODAY dated June 1-15 pointed out:- " It is no longer a secret that the health of the organisation will have to be restored and once again the people should get the impression that the party does not any longer look sickly but has returned to pink of its health. " The growing intra- party friction, factionalism and indiscipline in the state units of the party are clear signals that the BJP is no more a party with difference. The objective of the party "to strengthen the NDA, which means strengthening the BJP" did not convince the voters of Bihar, Orissa, and Haryana in the State Assembly elections. The Allies could en cash on the popular image of the Prime Minister in these elections, but the BJP lost. L.K.Advani, has been trying to convince the party workers the compulsions of coalition politics and strongly supported the line of Vajpayee in Chennai declaration of the BJP. As a National President of the BJP, he described "Hindutva as an ideological
mascot of the party " but now as a Union Home Minister, he is not so categorical on this issue. Addressing the newly elected party MPs in central training institute of the BJP at Jhinjoli in Haryana after the conclusion of the budget session of parliament, he said:- " The party originated out of the need to represent the cultural and moral ethos of Indian society..cultural nationalism transcended all religious barriers. If others named cultural nationalism of the BJP as Hindutva then the party had no objection provided the concept of so-called Hindutva was clearly understood by the users of the term" ( BJP TODAY June 1-15 ) His new explanation of the "ideological mascot" of the BJP gives an impression that the party leadership is now feeling shy in using the term Hindutva. This changed approach of the party also gives credence to the theory that the BJP is moving towards its Congressisation. The DMK president Karunanidhi s statement ( Chennai June 4 in Hindu dated June 5 ) that "the DMK s presence in National Democratic Alliance has moderated the BJP s (ideological) speed" also supports the views of those in the party who maintain that the party has drifted from its ideology. The introduction of 88 th constitutional amendment Bill 1999 in parliament by the NDA Government to reduce the eligibility criteria for the Dalits and ensure their entry in the backlog vacancies for them might be a tactical move of Vajpayee Government to attract Dalit votes in their favour. But this appeasement policy against which the BJP always took a lead may be a futile attempt to bring the Dalits under the influence of the BJP. On the other hand it may alienate the upper castes, presently known as the vote bank of the party. The biggest challenge before the BJP is the assembly elections in UP and in some other states, which are due in 2001. The growing disenchantment in RSS leadership with Vajpayee, disappointment of the party s aspirants for ministerial berths in Union Cabinet, humiliation of the party leaders of state units to satisfy the allies and the prevailing factionalism in state units are the real problems facing the party. Vajpayee as a Prime minister is expected by the party cadres to share greater responsibility in restoring the health of the party. But can he? R.Upadhyay 5.6.2000 E-mail ramashray60 @yahoo.com Category:
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