Iceland and the European Union Wave 2. Analytical report

Flash Eurobarometer European Commission Iceland and the European Union Wave 2 Analytical report Fieldwork: August 2011 Report: October 2011 Flash Eurobarometer 327 The Gallup Organization This survey was requested by the Directorate-General for Enlargement and coordinated by Directorate-General Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. page 1

Flash EB Series #327 Iceland and the European Union Wave 2 Survey conducted by The Gallup Organization, Hungary upon the request of Directorate- General for Enlargement Coordinated by Directorate-General Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report Table of contents Table of contents... 3 Presentation... 4 Main findings... 5 1. Familiarity with the EU... 8 2. Support for EU membership... 13 3. Iceland s relations with other countries... 21 3.1 Countries close to Iceland... 21 3.2 Countries Icelanders visited in the past five years... 23 3.3 Icelanders use of foreign media... 25 I. Annex tables... 31 II. Survey details... 59 III. Questionnaire... 61 page 3

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Presentation Iceland has been a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) since 1970 and has had a bilateral Free Trade Agreement with the EEC since 1972; two-thirds of Iceland s foreign trade is with EU Member States. Iceland also enjoys a high degree of integration with the EU through its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994, as well as the Schengen area, which allows its citizens to travel and work freely throughout the EU 1. Through the EEA, Iceland participates in the single market and contributes financially towards social and economic cohesion in Europe. A significant proportion of the EU s laws are applied in Iceland today. Iceland also participates, albeit with no voting rights, in a number of EU agencies and programmes, covering areas including enterprise, environment, education and research. Steps towards EU membership Iceland submitted its application for EU membership to the Council in July 2009. On 17 June 2010, the European Council decided to open accession negotiations with the country. The first intergovernmental conference on the accession of Iceland to the EU was held in Brussels on 27 July 2010, formally opening accession negotiations with the country. Flash Eurobarometer Iceland and the European Union The objective of Flash Eurobarometer Iceland and the European Union (N o 327) was to measure Icelanders views on their country s relationship with the EU. In detail, the topics covered in the survey included: familiarity with the EU and knowledge of several facts about EU membership views about Iceland s current integration with the EU attitudes towards EU membership and support for adopting the euro views about the potential consequences of EU membership countries seen as models for Iceland and countries that respondents felt closest to travel habits and countries visited in the past five years favourite channels used to stay informed about current affairs and use of foreign news media. The fieldwork of the survey was carried out in Iceland between 22 and 26 August 2011. Roughly 1,000 randomly selected citizens aged 15 and older were interviewed via fixed-line telephone. To correct for sampling disparities, a post-stratification weighting of results was implemented based on key socio-demographic variables. Flash Eurobarometer Iceland and the European Union (N o 327) is part of a trend survey; the fieldwork of the first wave Flash Eurobarometer N o 302 was carried out between 5 and 9 December 2010 2. The current report presents comparative data between the two waves. 1 For more details, see: http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/candidate-countries/iceland/relation/index_en.htm 2 For more details, see: http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_302_en.pdf page 4

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report Main findings Familiarity with the EU Almost 6 in 10 Icelanders disagreed with the statement, I feel familiar with the EU (40 said they somewhat disagreed and 17 strongly disagreed); nonetheless, the current level of disagreement was somewhat lower than the one observed in December 2010. Less than a tenth (7) of respondents strongly agreed, while 33 somewhat agreed, that they felt familiar with the EU. This feeling of a lack of familiarity with the EU could also be seen when looking at other statements; for example, although Icelandic would become one of the official languages of the EU if Iceland entered the EU, a majority of respondents had doubts about this fact (34 strongly disagreed and 24 somewhat disagreed). Men (49), 25-54 year-olds (44-47), full-time students and respondents with the highest level of education (43-46), metropolitan residents (46), employees and self-employed respondents (42-46) were more likely than their counterparts to agree that they felt familiar with the EU. Icelanders and EU citizens share the same values As in the previous wave of this survey, more than 6 in 10 Icelanders agreed with the statement, Icelanders and EU citizens share the same values, such as democracy and equality (14 strongly agreed and 48 somewhat agreed). Almost a quarter (23) of respondents disagreed with the statement and 16 decided not to express an opinion. Iceland s membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen area About two-thirds of Icelanders agreed that Iceland followed much of the EU s legislation without participating in the actual decision making (26 strongly agreed and 42 somewhat agreed). Icelanders were divided whether their country s participation in the Schengen Agreement was positive: 38 of respondents agreed that membership of the Schengen Agreement was positive, and nearly as many respondents (35) disagreed. The current results are less positive than those observed in December 2010, when respondents who expressed agreement outnumbered those who disagreed. Support for EU membership Public support for EU membership remains low in Iceland: 12 of Icelanders strongly agreed, and 16 somewhat agreed, that their country s future should be as part of the EU. Almost 4 in 10 (37) respondents strongly disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the Union, and a further 18 somewhat disagreed. A considerable proportion (18) of respondents had either not yet formed an opinion about this topic, or did not want to share their opinion. As was seen in December 2010, respondents who felt familiar with the EU were more likely to agree that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU (38 vs. 20 for those unfamiliar with the EU). Nonetheless, even among those feeling familiar with the EU, a considerable proportion strongly disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the Union; the proportion of strongly disagree responses was equal (36-37) regardless of the level of familiarity. Overall the highest levels of support for Iceland s membership of the EU were measured among respondents with the highest level of education (33) and metropolitan residents (32). Other groups that were more likely than their counterparts to agree that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU were 25-54 year-olds (29 vs. 25 of respondents in other age groups) and employees (29 vs. 24-26 across other occupational groups). page 5

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Support for the euro About a third of Icelanders agreed that Iceland s adoption of the euro would help its economy (12 strongly agreed and 20 somewhat agreed); the overall level of support for Iceland s adoption of the euro had decreased by seven percentage points since December 2010. About half of interviewees disagreed that the euro s introduction would be positive (30 strongly disagreed and 21 somewhat disagreed). About one in six (16) respondents did not answer. In December 2010, the overall level of support for Iceland s adoption of the euro appeared to have been higher than the level of support for Iceland s membership of the EU (39 euro vs. 30 EU membership ). In the current wave, however, it was noted that the gap between support for Iceland s adoption of the euro and support for Iceland s membership of the EU has narrowed (32 euro vs. 28 EU membership ). Consequences of EU membership About two-thirds (66; +4 points since December 2010) of Icelanders agreed that their country s interests would be harmed by the EU s fishery policy and a lower proportion (59) believed that whaling would be prohibited when Iceland joined the EU. Icelanders were also concerned that their country would lose control over its natural resources: a slim majority (54) of respondents disagreed that Iceland would be able to keep control over its natural resources. More than 8 in 10 (83) Icelanders agreed that food producers in their country would face more competition from those in other EU countries. The proportion who thought that there would be a decrease in food prices after joining the EU, however, was considerably lower (48; -9 points since December 2010). A slim majority (53; -6 points since December 2010) of respondents agreed that tourism in Iceland would develop significantly after the country joined the EU and about 3 in 10 (31) respondents agreed that EU support for regional development would benefit their country s citizens (note: many respondents found it difficult to formulate their opinion on the topic of EU regional support). Countries close to Iceland More than 4 in 10 (45; -6 percentage points since December 2010) Icelanders chose Norway as a country that could be seen as a model for their country. Norway was followed by Sweden and Denmark (both selected by 22 of respondents). About 6 in 10 (59) Icelanders also chose Norway as the country that they felt closest to. The proportion naming Denmark as the country they felt closest to was higher than the proportion selecting Sweden (43 vs. 31). Combining the above-mentioned results, 80 of Icelanders mentioned at least one EU country either as a model for Iceland or as the country they felt closest to (or both). A majority (60) of Icelanders said they felt closer to the EU than to the US; about one in six (16) held an opposite view they felt closer to the US than to the EU. Icelanders use of foreign media Respondents who regularly read foreign news media were more familiar with the EU and had different views about the Union. Some members of this group were among the most supportive of the EU, while others appeared to be more Euro-sceptic. A majority (60) of Icelanders said they read, watched and/or listened to news media other than Icelandic media. Out of these respondents who consulted foreign media, 43 said they read, watched or listened to foreign news media on a daily basis and another 45 consulted these media sources at least once a week. page 6

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report Compared to December 2010, the current results not only represent an increase in the proportion of respondents who said they watched or listened to foreign news media (from 53 to 60; +7 percentage points), but also in the proportion of respondents who consulted foreign news media, and who said they did so on a daily basis (from 35 to 43; +8 points). UK news media were by far the most popular source for foreign news; 75 of respondents who read, watched or listened to foreign news media said these media were UK-based. Media from the US were selected by 45 of respondents and media from Denmark by 28. page 7

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) 1. Familiarity with the EU Almost 6 in 10 Icelanders disagreed with the statement, I feel familiar with the EU (40 said they somewhat disagreed and 17 strongly disagreed); nonetheless, the current level of disagreement was somewhat lower than the one observed in December 2010. Among those who felt familiar with the EU, a minority expressed strong agreement; 7 of all respondents strongly agreed (+2 percentage points since December 2010), while 33 somewhat agreed (+2 points), that they felt familiar with the EU. Familiarity with the EU I feel familiar with the EU Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) 17 2 7 Strongly agree 20 3 5 33 Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 31 40 Strongly disagree 41 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents Large differences in familiarity with the EU were observed when looking across various sociodemographic groups. The largest difference in familiarity with the Union was seen when comparing respondents with the lowest level of education 3 and those with the highest level of education: 22 of the former, compared to 46 of the latter, agreed that they felt familiar with the EU; the corresponding proportions for respondents with an average level of education and for full-time students were, respectively, 31 and 43. Men were also more likely to feel familiar with the EU: 49 of men agreed with the statement, compared to 30 of women. Similarly, while 35 of 15-24 year-olds and the same number of over 54 year-olds said they felt familiar with the EU, this figure increased to 44 for 40-54 yearolds and 47 for 25-39 year-olds. 3 In certain socio-demographic segments (such as respondents with the lowest level of education and manual workers), less than 50 respondents were interviewed; caution should be exercised when interpreting the results of these groups. page 8 Familiarity with the EU TOTAL GENDER Male Female AGE 15-24 25-39 40-54 55+ EDUCATION (END OF) * -15 16-20 20+ Still in education URBANISATION Metropolitan Urban Rural OCCUPATION Self-employed Employees * Manual workers Not working I feel familiar with the EU Agree Disagree 22 30 40 35 35 31 29 36 49 47 44 46 43 46 46 42 39 35 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree: Note: * <50 respondents, Base: all respondents 6 2 2 3 2 4 3 3 0 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 68 72 58 63 61 68 68 48 51 55 61 52 54 52 53 56 61 62

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report Roughly a third (35) of non-working respondents agreed that they felt familiar with the EU, compared to 42 of employees and 46 of self-employed respondents; the corresponding proportion for manual workers was 39. Finally, the level of agreement for respondents who described their place of residence as metropolitan was 46, compared to 36 of urban residents and 29 of rural residents 4. While 65 of respondents who regularly read foreign news media, and 43 of those who occasionally read such media, agreed that they felt familiar with the EU, the figure decreased to 23 among those who said they never read foreign news media. Moreover, for the latter group of respondents, the survey found that about three-quarters (74) did not feel familiar with the EU. (For more details about the proportions of Icelanders who read foreign news media see section 3.3.) Travelling abroad also appeared to generate a greater feeling of familiarity with the EU: 43 of those who had regularly travelled abroad in the past five years agreed that they felt familiar with the EU, compared to 27 of those who had not travelled or who had not made more than one trip abroad in that time frame. It should, however, be kept in mind that the latter type of respondents were more likely to be older than 54, not working and have a low level of education. (For more information about the characteristics of those who had not travelled abroad, see section 3.2.) Facts about EU Membership This overall feeling of a lack of familiarity with the EU could also be seen when looking at the results for the next two statements: Icelanders will be able to keep their national passports and Icelandic will become one of the official languages of the EU. When asked whether Icelanders would be able to keep their national passports after joining the EU, less than 4 in 10 (38) respondents strongly agreed. About a third (34) of respondents somewhat agreed with the statement in other words, they considered it likely that they would be able to keep their passports, but nonetheless expressed some doubt about that. Furthermore, 18 of respondents said they did not know and 10 disagreed that they would be able to keep their national passports when Iceland joined the EU. These results were practically unchanged compared to the previous wave of this survey. Similarly, although Icelandic would become one of the EU s official languages when Iceland entered the EU, about a third (34) of interviewees strongly disagreed with the statement explaining this fact, 24 somewhat disagreed and 12 said they did not know. Nonetheless, the proportion of Icelanders who agreed with this statement has slightly increased since December 2010, from 27 to 30 (+3 percentage points). Familiarity with the EU Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) Icelanders will be able to keep their national passports 38 34 6 4 18 37 35 6 3 19 Icelandic will become one of the official languages of the EU 12 18 24 34 12 14 13 25 37 12 Icelanders will be able to keep their national passports Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Q2. Now, imagine that Iceland becomes a member of the EU. Would you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each the following statements about the consequences of the membership of Iceland to the EU?, Base: all respondents 4 The variable subjective urbanisation was based on respondents answers to the following question: Would you say you live in a metropolitan zone, other town/urban centre, or a rural zone?. page 9

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) One in two respondents who felt familiar with the EU strongly agreed that Icelanders would be able to keep their national passports after joining the EU, compared to just 30 of those who did not feel familiar with the Union. Among the latter respondents, 21 gave a don t know response, while the corresponding proportion for those feeling familiar with the EU was 13. Moreover, respondents who did not feel familiar with the EU were more likely to strongly disagree that, when Iceland entered the EU, Icelandic would be added to the EU s existing 23 official languages (39 vs. 29 of those feeling familiar with the EU). Nonetheless, even among those feeling familiar with the EU, not more than half accepted this statement: 19 strongly agreed and 21 somewhat agreed that Icelandic would be added to the official languages of the EU. In accordance with the results discussed in the previous section, socio-demographic groups that were identified as being less likely to feel familiar with the EU were more likely to give a don t know response or to disagree when asked whether Icelanders would be able to keep their passports and whether Icelandic would become one of the EU s official languages after joining the EU. For example, 23 of respondents with the lowest level of education said they did not know whether they would be able to keep their national passports when Iceland joined the EU, this proportion decreased 15 for respondents with the highest level of education. Similarly, 63 of women, as opposed to 54 of men, disagreed that Icelandic would become one of the EU s official languages when Iceland entered the EU. Icelanders and EU citizens share the same values As in the previous wave of this survey, more than 6 in 10 Icelanders agreed with the statement, Icelanders and EU citizens share the same values, such as democracy and equality (14 said they strongly agreed with the statement and 48 somewhat agreed). Almost a quarter (23) of respondents disagreed with the statement and 16 decided not to express an opinion. Sharing the same values Icelanders and EU citizens share the same values, such as democracy and equality Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) 16 14 Strongly agree 18 15 6 Somewhat agree 6 17 48 Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 15 47 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents Respondents who felt familiar with the EU were more likely than those not feeling familiar with the Union to agree that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values (75 vs. 51). Among respondents who did not feel familiar with the EU, 27 disagreed that the same values were shared by Icelanders and EU citizens and 22 gave a don t know response; the corresponding figures for those feeling familiar with the Union were 18 and 8, respectively. page 10

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report About two-thirds (68) of men agreed that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values, vs. 53 of women. The latter were more likely not to give an opinion about this topic (22 vs. 10 of men) and were somewhat more likely to express disagreement (25 vs. 21). The over 54 year-olds were also more likely to disagree that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values (28 vs. 19-21 of 15-39 year-olds). Additionally, 25-39 year-olds were the most likely to agree with this proposition (69 vs. 48 of 15-24 year-olds) and 15-24 year-olds were most likely to give a don t know response (30 vs. 13 of 25-39 year-olds and 11 of 40-54 year-olds). While 69 of respondents with the highest level of education agreed that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values, among respondents with the lowest level of education only half as many (34) accepted this proposition. Members of the latter group were more likely to give a don t know response (25 vs. 11 of the most educated) or to express disagreement (41 vs. 20, respectively). A lower level of agreement was also measured among non-working respondents (51, compared to 65-75 across other occupational Sharing the same values Icelanders and EU citizens share the same values TOTAL GENDER groups). More than a quarter of non-working respondents disagreed that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values (27, compared to, for example, 21 of employees) and more than a fifth gave a don t know response (22, compared to 9-15 across other occupational groups). The proportion of respondents who agreed that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values ranged from 52 in urban areas and 54 in rural areas to 66 in metropolitan areas. The proportion of respondents who disagreed with this statement was rather similar in metropolitan and urban areas (20-23), but was higher in rural areas (29). Finally, 25 of respondents in urban areas gave a don t know response, compared 14-17 in other areas. Almost three-quarters (73) of respondents who frequently read foreign news media and 61 of those who occasionally read such media agreed that the same values were shared by Icelanders and EU citizens; the level of agreement dropped to 54 for those who never read foreign news media. Members of the latter group were more likely not to give an opinion (21 vs. 8 of frequent readers and 15 of occasional readers). More than 6 in 10 (63) respondents who had regularly travelled abroad in the past five years agreed that Icelanders and EU citizens shared the same values, while 22 of them disagreed with this proposition. The corresponding proportions for those who had not travelled in the past five years or who had not made more than one trip abroad in that time frame were 55 and 29, respectively. Male Female AGE 15-24 25-39 40-54 55+ EDUCATION (END OF) * -15 16-20 20+ Still in education URBANISATION Metropolitan Urban Rural OCCUPATION Self-employed Employees * Manual workers Not working Agree Disagree 34 53 48 61 58 54 52 68 69 65 59 54 51 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree: Note: * <50 respondents, Base: all respondents 69 66 68 65 75 25 22 30 14 21 25 17 22 16 10 11 19 13 11 14 9 14 41 15 23 21 25 21 19 24 28 25 29 20 21 20 23 24 21 27 10 page 11

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Iceland s membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen area As noted in the introduction of this report, Iceland already enjoys a high degree of integration with the EU through its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), as well as the Schengen Agreement. Furthermore, a significant proportion of the EU s laws are already applied in Iceland. In accordance with the finding of an overall low level of familiarity with the EU, a considerable number of respondents did not express an opinion when presented with statements about EU laws currently being applied in Iceland (19 don t know responses) and the Schengen Agreement (27). Roughly a quarter (26) of Icelanders strongly agreed that Iceland followed much of the EU s legislation without participating in the actual decision making, and a further 42 somewhat agreed. About one in seven (14) respondents disagreed with the statement. The results of this statement were practically unchanged compared to December 2010. Icelanders were divided whether their country s participation in the Schengen Agreement was positive: 38 of respondents agreed that membership of the Schengen Agreement was positive for Iceland, and nearly as many respondents (35) held an opposite view i.e. they disagreed with the statement. The current results are less positive than those observed in December 2010, when respondents who expressed agreement significantly outnumbered those who said they disagreed (41 agreed vs. 31 who disagreed). Membership of the European Economic Area and the Schengen area Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) Iceland follows much of the EU s legislation without participating in the actual decision making 26 42 9 5 19 27 41 8 5 19 Iceland s participation in the Schengen Agreement is positive 9 29 21 14 27 12 29 17 14 29 Icelanders will be able to keep their national passports Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents A more detailed look at the proportions not expressing an opinion about the above-mentioned statements showed that certain groups such as women, 15-24 year-olds and full-time students were more likely to give such a don t know response. For example, 48 of 15-24 year-olds did not answer when asked whether Iceland s participation in the Schengen Agreement was positive, this proportion decreased to 17 for 40-54 year-olds. Other groups who felt less familiar with the EU, such as respondents with a low level of education and non-working respondents, were also more likely not to express an opinion when presented with statements about EU legislation or the Schengen Agreement; however, they also more frequently disagreed with these statements. For example, 34 of non-working respondents, compared to 24 of employees, said they did not know when asked to evaluate Iceland s participation in the Schengen Agreement; however, a similar number of both groups disagreed with this statement (32-34). Men (42 vs. 34 of women), younger respondents (40-42 of 15-54 year-olds vs. 32 of over 54 year-olds), respondents with the highest level of education and full-time students (43 vs. 26-32 across other educational groups), metropolitan residents (41 vs. 34-35 of rural and urban residents), employees and self-employed respondents (42-45 vs. 34 of non-working respondents) were more likely to agree that membership of the Schengen Agreement was positive for Iceland. It should, however, also be noted that self-employed respondents were not only among the most likely to agree that their country s membership of the Schengen area was positive, they were also among the most likely to disagree (44 vs. 34 of employees). page 12

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report 2. Support for EU membership Public support for EU membership remains low in Iceland: 12 of Icelanders strongly agreed, and 16 somewhat agreed, that their country s future should be as part of the EU. Almost 4 in 10 (37) respondents strongly disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU, and a further 18 somewhat disagreed. A considerable proportion (18) of respondents had either not yet formed an opinion about this topic, or did not want to share their opinion. Support for EU membership Iceland s future should be as part of the EU Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) 12 18 Strongly agree 16 14 16 Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 16 37 18 Strongly disagree 35 19 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents As was seen in December 2010, respondents who felt familiar with the EU were more likely to agree that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU (38 vs. 20 for those feeling not familiar with the EU). Nonetheless, even among those feeling familiar with the EU, a considerable proportion strongly disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the Union; the proportion of strongly disagree responses was equal (36-37) regardless of the level of familiarity. It is also worth noting that, among respondents who felt familiar with the EU, the proportion agreeing that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU has decreased from 43 in December 2010 to 38 in August 2011 (-5 percentage points). Support for EU membership Iceland s future should be as part of the EU Respondents who feel familiar with the EU Respondents who do not feel familiar with the EU Fl327 (08/2011) 21 17 14 36 12 6 14 20 37 23 Fl302 (12/2010) 24 19 14 35 8 8 14 23 35 20 Icelanders will be able to keep their national passports Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents page 13

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Across almost all socio-demographic segments, a majority of respondents disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU; the total level of disagreement ranged from 47 for 25-39 yearolds and metropolitan residents to 72 for respondents with the lowest level of education. Support for EU membership Iceland s future should be as part of the EU TOTAL GENDER Male Female AGE 15-24 25-39 40-54 55+ EDUCATION (END OF) * -15 16-20 20+ Still in education URBANISATION Metropolitan Urban Rural OCCUPATION Self-employed Employees * Manual workers Not working Agree Disagree 28 27 28 25 29 29 25 22 20 26 20 21 24 33 32 29 24 26 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree: Note: * <50 respondents 6 15 18 15 14 20 12 13 22 21 16 24 25 18 18 23 20 21 72 54 58 61 65 67 51 54 55 60 63 47 50 49 47 52 53 54, Base: all respondents Overall the highest levels of support for Iceland s membership of the EU were measured among respondents with the highest level of education (33 vs. 20-22 of respondents with a low or average level of education) and metropolitan residents (32 vs. 21-22 of rural and urban residents). Other groups that were more likely than their counterparts to agree that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU were 25-54 year-olds (29 vs. 25 of respondents in other age groups) and employees (29 vs. 24-26 across other occupational groups). About a quarter of 25-39 year-olds (24) and full-time students (25) were undecided in their assessment of EU membership or preferred not to give their opinion; this proportion was considerably lower for the over 54 year-olds, respondents with a low or average level of education, rural residents and selfemployed respondents members of these groups most frequently disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU. For example, 67 of rural residents disagreed with the statement, compared to 60 of urban residents and 67 of metropolitan residents. Respondents who regularly read foreign news media were also more likely to support EU membership: 37 agreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU, compared to 22 of respondents who never consulted foreign news media; the corresponding proportion for respondents who occasionally read foreign media was 27. Having travelled abroad not only appeared to be related to a feeling of familiarity with the EU, but also with support for EU membership: 29 of interviewees who had regularly travelled abroad in the past five years agreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU, compared to 22 of those who had not travelled abroad or who had not made more than one trip abroad in that time frame. As noted before, however, it should be kept in mind that the latter respondents were more likely to be older than 54, not working and have a low level of education. page 14

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report Support for Iceland s adoption of the euro About a third of Icelanders agreed that Iceland s adoption of the euro would help its economy (12 strongly agreed and 20 somewhat agreed); the overall level of support for Iceland s adoption of the euro had decreased by seven percentage points since December 2010. About half of interviewees disagreed that the euro s introduction would be positive (30 strongly disagreed and 21 somewhat disagreed). About one in six (16) respondents were undecided in their assessment of the euro s introduction or preferred not to give their opinion. Support for the euro Iceland s adoption of the euro will help its economy Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) 12 16 Strongly agree 14 15 30 20 Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 23 24 21 23 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents In December 2010, the overall level of support for Iceland s adoption of the euro appeared to have been higher than the level of support for Iceland s membership of the EU (39 euro vs. 30 EU membership ). In the current wave, however, it was noted that the gap between support for Iceland s adoption of the euro and support for Iceland s membership of the EU has narrowed (32 euro vs. 28 EU membership ). Among respondents feeling familiar with the EU, 19 strongly agreed, and 22 somewhat agreed, that Iceland s adoption of the euro would help the economy. The corresponding figures for those who did not feel familiar with the EU were lower: 7 strongly agreed and 20 somewhat agreed. Focusing on the proportions that strongly disagreed with the statement showed once more that, across both groups, a similar share of interviewees expressed strong disagreement (30-31). Support for the euro Iceland s adoption of the euro will help its economy Respondents who feel familiar with the EU Respondents who do not feel familiar with the EU Fl327 (08/2011) 19 22 16 31 12 7 20 25 30 19 Fl302 (12/2010) 23 25 19 24 9 11 24 25 23 17 Icelanders will be able to keep their national passports Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents page 15

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) A comparison with the December 2010 results shows a decrease in the overall level of support for Iceland s adoption of the euro not only among those feeling familiar with the EU (from 48 to 41; -7 percentage points), but also among those not feeling familiar with the Union (from 35 to 27; -7 points). Differences in the levels of support for the introduction of the euro were similar to those observed for support for EU membership. For example, 35-36 of 25-54 year-olds agreed that Iceland s adoption of the euro would help its economy, compared to 30 of 15-24 year-olds and 27 of over 54 yearolds. Similarly, while just 17 of respondents with the lowest level of education agreed that adopting the euro would be good for Iceland s economy, this proportion increased to 35 for respondents with the highest level of education; the corresponding proportion for full-time students was 34. Support for the euro Iceland s adoption of the euro will help its economy TOTAL GENDER Male Female AGE 15-24 25-39 40-54 55+ EDUCATION (END OF) * -15 16-20 20+ Still in education URBANISATION Metropolitan Urban Rural OCCUPATION Self-employed Employees * Manual workers Not working Agree Disagree 17 32 27 21 30 27 37 35 29 36 35 34 37 37 33 28 27 35 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree: Note: * <50 respondents, Base: all respondents 23 17 19 14 16 17 14 13 19 18 14 20 14 16 18 15 16 21 52 49 54 53 59 59 57 63 44 50 49 49 48 54 49 53 55 42 Overall the highest proportions of respondents who disagreed that adopting the euro would be good for their country s economy were measured among the over 54 year-olds (59 vs. 44 for 25-39 year-olds), respondents with a low or average level of education (57-59 vs. 49 of respondents with the highest level of education) and rural residents (63 vs. 42 of urban residents and 48 of metropolitan residents). About a third (34) of respondents who had travelled abroad several times in the past five years agreed that Iceland s adoption of the euro would help its economy, this figure dropped to 24 for those who had not travelled or who had not made more than one trip abroad in that time frame. Comparing respondents who did, and those who did not read foreign news media, it was noted that 42 of frequent readers of such media agreed that Iceland s adoption of the euro would help its economy, compared to 25 of those who never consulted foreign media sources; the corresponding figure for those who said they occasionally read foreign news media was 34. Support for EU membership and familiarity with the EU It was noted in the beginning of this chapter that respondents who did not feel familiar with the EU were more likely to disagree that Iceland s future was as part of the Union. Combining responses for the question about familiarity with the EU and support for EU membership, it was noted that 34 of all respondents said they did not feel familiar with the EU and also did not support Iceland s membership of the Union. Somewhat more than a tenth (12) of respondents did not feel familiar with the EU, but did support Iceland s membership of the Union. Furthermore, as noted previously, among those feeling familiar with the EU, a considerable proportion strongly disagreed that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU. In fact, even among respondents who felt familiar with the EU, those who did not support Iceland s membership of the Union outnumbered those who did (21 and 16, respectively, of all respondents). Note: in December 2010, page 16

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report almost equal proportions of respondents who felt familiar with the EU, either supported or did not support EU membership (16 vs. 18). About a sixth (18) of respondents did not know whether they would support Iceland s EU membership or not (or they could not say whether they felt familiar with the EU or not). Informed support for EU membership Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) 18 16 Familiar with the EU/support for EU membership Familiar with the EU/no support for EU membership 18 16 21 Not familiar with the EU/support for EU membership 18 34 12 Not familiar with the EU/no support for EU membership No opinion about EU membership (or other "don't know" response) 35 14 Q1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree:, Base: all respondents Consequences of EU membership About two-thirds of Icelanders agreed that their country s interests would be harmed by the EU s fishery policy (39 strongly agreed and 27 somewhat agreed) and a lower proportion believed that whaling would be prohibited when Iceland joined the EU (26 strongly agreed and 33 somewhat agreed). Icelanders were also concerned that their country would lose control over its natural resources after joining the EU: a slim majority of respondents disagreed that Iceland would be able to keep control over its natural resources (27 strongly disagreed and 27 somewhat disagreed). More than 8 in 10 Icelanders agreed that food producers in their country would face more competition from those in other EU countries after their country joined the EU (35 strongly agreed and 48 somewhat agreed). The proportion who thought that there would be a decrease in food prices after joining the EU, however, was considerably lower (15 strongly agreed and 33 somewhat agreed). A slim majority of respondents agreed that tourism in Iceland would develop significantly after the country joined the EU (16 strongly agreed and 37 somewhat agreed) and about 3 in 10 respondents agreed that EU support for regional development would benefit their country s citizens (9 strongly agreed and 22 somewhat agreed). It should, however, be noted that many respondents found it difficult to formulate their opinion on the topic of EU regional support (31 don t know responses). A comparison across the two waves of the survey showed mostly minor changes in the levels of (dis)agreement for the statements about potential consequences of EU membership. The largest change in agreement was observed for the statement about expected changes in food prices after joining the EU: in December 2010, 57 of respondents agreed, and 30 disagreed, that food prices would go down when Iceland joined the EU; in August 2010, however, just 48 of respondents agreed (-9 percentage points), while 37 disagreed (+7 points) with this statement. page 17

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Consequences of Iceland s EU membership Fl327 (08/2011) Fl302 (12/2010) Icelandic food producers will face more competition from those in other EU countries 35 48 7 3 6 36 48 7 3 7 Iceland s interests will be harmed by the EU s fishery policy 39 27 14 6 14 35 27 15 7 16 Whaling will be prohibited 26 33 15 12 15 26 31 13 14 16 Tourism in Iceland will develop significantly 16 37 23 7 16 17 42 19 6 16 Food prices will go down in Iceland 15 33 25 12 14 21 36 20 10 14 Iceland will be able to keep control of its natural resources 14 24 27 27 8 17 22 24 28 8 EU support for regional development will benefit Iceland s citizens 9 22 20 18 31 10 22 22 17 29 Icelandic Strongly food producers agree will Somewhat face more competition agree Somewhat 36disagree Strongly 48disagree 7 3 7 Q2. Now, imagine that Iceland becomes a member of the EU. Would you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each the following statements about the consequences of the membership of Iceland to the EU?, Base: all respondents Not surprisingly, respondents who thought that Iceland s future should be as part of the EU were considerably more likely to agree with the positively-formulated statements about potential consequences of the EU (e.g. tourism in Iceland will develop significantly ) and considerably less likely to agree with the negatively-formulated statements (e.g. Iceland s interests will be harmed by the EU s fishery policy ). Some of the largest differences in agreement/disagreement for the statements about the potential consequences of EU membership were seen when comparing interviewees who felt familiar with the EU and supported membership of the Union and those who felt familiar with the EU, but did not support EU membership. For example, among those respondents feeling familiar with the EU and who were supportive of EU membership, 83 agreed, and 12 disagreed, that Iceland would be able to keep control over its natural resources after joining the EU. Among those feeling familiar with the EU but being more critical about EU membership, 15 agreed, and 81 disagreed, with the statement. Looking at the results for those who did not feel familiar with the EU, but who supported membership of the Union, respondents who agreed also largely outnumbered those who disagreed that Iceland would be able to keep control over its natural resources (72 vs. 22); however, their level of agreement was lower than for their counterparts feeling familiar with the EU (72 vs. 83). Similarly, among those who did not feel familiar with the EU and also did not support membership of the Union, respondents who disagreed largely outnumbered those who agreed (72 vs. 21). These respondents, however, were less likely than their counterparts who felt familiar with the EU to disagree that Iceland would be able to keep control over its natural resources (72 vs. 81). Among those who did not know whether they would support Iceland s EU membership or not (or who could not say whether they felt familiar with the EU or not), large proportions of interviewees gave a don t know response when presented with the statements about potential consequences of EU membership (between 13 and 63). page 18

Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Analytical report Consequences of Iceland s EU membership Support for EU membership Familiar with the EU No support for EU membership No support for EU membership Not familiar with the EU Support for EU membership No opinion about EU membership (or other don t know ) Icelandic food producers will face more competition from those in other EU countries 91 73 86 104 79 15 6 91 45 79 7 13 Food prices will go down in Iceland 87 58 35 57 9 30 54 16 75 17 8 50 28 22 Tourism in Iceland will develop significantly 83 611 36 52 12 45 37 18 74 14 12 53 26 21 Whaling will be prohibited 55 30 16 69 20 11 61 30 9 45 42 14 63 14 24 Iceland s interests will be harmed by the EU s fishery policy 33 49 18 89 57 83 107 38 50 12 54 12 34 Iceland will be able to keep control of its natural resources 83 125 15 81 5 21 72 7 72 22 6 36 44 21 EU support for regional development will benefit Iceland s citizens 77 5 18 19 64 17 11 62 28 61 11 28 25 12 63 Icelandic food producers Agree will face more competition from Disagree 36 7 7 Q2. Now, imagine that Iceland becomes a member of the EU. Would you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each the following statements about the consequences of the membership of Iceland to the EU?, Base: all respondents Across almost all socio-demographic groups, about 80 or more of interviewees agreed that Icelandic food producers would face more competition from those in other EU countries. The largest differences in agreement for this statement were observed across educational groups: 89 of respondents with the highest level of education agreed that there would be more competition among food producers, this proportion decreased to 63 for respondents with the lowest level of education. As for the (average) results for the whole sample, across all segments, respondents were less likely to agree that food prices would go down when Iceland entered the EU. For example, while 79 of over 54 year-olds agreed that there would be more competition among food producers, only about half as many (41) agreed that food prices would go down after joining the EU. Respondents most likely to agree with this statement were mostly men (54), 15-24 year-olds and full-time students (54-55), metropolitan residents (53) and frequent readers of foreign news media (57). Respondents in rural areas were most likely to think that Iceland s interests would be harmed by the EU s fishery policy (73 agreed ). Respondents living in metropolitan areas, 25-39 year-olds and full-time students were among the least likely to agree with this statement (60-63). Across most segments, a majority of respondents also agreed that whaling would be prohibited when Iceland joined the EU. For example, 55 of over 54 year-olds, 58 of those with an average level of education, 60 of metropolitan residents and 63 of self-employed respondents agreed with this proposition. Variation was also seen in the proportions of respondents who believed that, when joining the EU, tourism in Iceland would develop significantly. For example, the level of agreement for this statement ranged from 50 in rural areas to 56 in metropolitan areas. Across almost all socio-demographic segments, at least 50 of respondents agreed with the statements about the potential consequences of EU membership discussed so far; however, this was not the case for the last two statements for the first of these two statements, many respondents found it difficult to give their opinion (i.e. they gave a don t know response); for the other statement, on the other hand, a larger proportion expressed disagreement. page 19

Analytical report Flash EB N o 327 Iceland and the European Union (Wave 2) Many respondents said they did not know when asked whether they agreed, or disagreed, with the statement that EU support for regional development would benefit Iceland s citizens; the proportions of such don t know responses were highest among 15-24 year-olds and full-time students (47 and 42, respectively). The self-employed and frequent readers of foreign news media were among the most likely to answer this question; their opinions on the topic, however, were different. Among the self-employed, 30 agreed, and 48 disagreed, that EU regional support would benefit their country s citizens; however, among frequent readers of foreign news media, 45 agreed, and 32 disagreed with the statement. In sharp contrast, a large majority of respondents expressed their opinion when asked whether they thought that their country would be able to keep control over its natural resources when joining the EU. Moreover, across most socio-demographic segments, respondents who disagreed with this statement outnumbered those who agreed. For example, 65 of rural residents disagreed with the statement compared to 29 who expressed agreement. The most important exception were once again those respondents frequently reading foreign news media; among the members of this group, 43 disagreed, while 50 agreed, that Iceland would be able to keep control over its natural resources. page 20