Bush s Cancelled Visit a Purposeful Rebuke to Ottawa; Landry s Defeat Because of PQ Weakness and Charest s Acumen, Chretien Gets No Credit CIBC/Chamber Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post for Publication April 21, 2003 COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research
Introduction This week s web-survey of business leaders and CEOs explored two recent political events President Bush cancellation of his trip to Canada and the Quebec election. Coming during a week of American media attacks on perceived anti- Americanism in Canada 1, the cancellation of the Bush visit is seen by Canadian business leaders as a purposeful rebuke to this anti-americanism. The White House meanwhile is biding its time until Jean Chretien s successor takes office, say Canada s business leaders. Canada s business leaders are somewhat divided about how to go about repairing the Canada-U.S. relationship. In descending order of opinion, they are inclined to believe that fences would be mended if Paul Martin became Prime Minister, Canada sent aid to post-saddam Iraq, Bush were defeated by a Democrat, and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. On the topic of Quebec s election of Jean Charest, most business leaders attribute the win to either the PQ s losing steam or Charest s acumen. Fewer than 1 of respondents are prepared to give credit to the Prime Minister for weakening the separatist movement. These are the key findings from the COMPAS/Financial Post business leader survey conducted under the sponsorship of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Explaining Why Bush s Visit Was Cancelled A Rebuff to Anti- Americanism and Biding Time til Chretien s Departure, Not Because Bush Is Pre-Occupied with Iraq There has been widespread speculation as to which precise event or action precipitated President Bush s cancellation of his long-planned trip to Canada. Almost 58 of respondents believe that Anti-American remarks by Liberal MPs and Cabinet-level officials prompted Bush s cancellation. Meanwhile 17 believe that the White House cancellation was triggered by Ottawa s instruction to the Canadian navy in the Gulf not to turn over to the Americans any Iraqi Baathists they might capture. As many as 22 of respondents are undecided about why the trip was cancelled. This is partly because they see each of several anti- American actions as contributing to the cancellation (see table 1). 1 See the column, We Stand on Guard for Thee, by the immensely popular U.S. Fox News broadcaster, Bill O Reilly, and the column, While Jean Chretien Golfs, by Michelle Malkin. 2
Table 1: (Q1) There's debate about what prompted cancellation of U.S. President Bush's long planned visit to Canada. Which of the following is the best explanation? Anti-American remarks by Liberal MPs and Cabinet-level 58 officials The fact that Ottawa ordered Canada's navy in the Persian Gulf not to turn over Iraqi leaders to U.S. 17 authorities The fact that Cabinet Minister Herb Dhaliwal was not obliged to apologize for declaring that the President had 4 failed as an international statesman DNK/REFUSED 22 In a follow-up question, respondents were asked to choose from among three possible explanations for the cancellation, including a diplomatic explanation proffered by White House spokesperson Ari Fleischer. Business leaders agree overwhelmingly that the cancellation was not a benign result of the President s hectic schedule. Few business leaders believe Ari Fleischer s explanation that "the postponement [was] due to the president's ongoing obligations to help the people of Iraq build a nation that is whole, free and at peace." Respondents are divided as to whether the cancellation was a direct reaction against anti-american invective from Canadian politicians or whether the White House was simply biding its time until Chretien s successor takes office (see table 2). 3
Table 2: (Q2) Which of the following explanations do you think is closest to the truth? Liberal Chair of the Commons Defence Committee, David Pratt: "I think this [the cancellation] is because of 45 the unhelpful comments that were made by various people" Carleton University Professor Norman Hillmer: "The White House is now just waiting for Chrétien to leave 40 and for Paul Martin to come down the pike" White House Spokesperson Ari Fleischer: "The postponement is due to the president's ongoing 12 obligations to help the people of Iraq build a nation that is whole, free and at peace" DNK/REFUSED 3 As with previous COMPAS studies on Canada-US relations, respondents are vocal about this situation: This Government from the Prime Minister on down has not done anything right to keep the American trust and friendship during the Iraq crisis/war. You don't turn your back on your neighbour! We will suffer a huge loss due to Chretien s gutless response to requests for help from us. He and his anti-american cronies should be held responsible for the damage they've done to US-Canada relations. Chretien has got to go - he's an embarrassment to this country. We are lucky to have our American friends and neighbours to the south. Let's hope we can repair the damage done by our prime minister having both feet and hands in his mouth at the same time! If a country insulted Canada, constantly berated us and questioned our integrity and then said they would not pick up escaping criminals from our country, do you think it would be possible for Chretien to go and visit them? Business Leaders are not confident that they know what should be done to repair Canada s relationship with the United States. As shown in table 3, 35 believe that having Paul Martin as Prime Minister would help. Others believe that the best contributions to the relationship would be if Canada sent aid to post- 4
Saddam Iraq, if a Democrat were the next U.S. President, or if Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. Table 3: (Q3) Which of the following events would be most helpful in repairing Canada's relationship with the U.S.? If Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister 35 If Canada sends police and civilian assistance to Iraq 24 If in 2004 the United States elects a Democratic President 16 If Canada elects Stephen Harper as Prime Minister 14 DNK/REFUSED 11 Explaining Landry s Defeat PQ Weakness and Charest s Acumen, Not Jean Chretien Turning to a significant achievement for National Unity, business leaders were asked about what led to the Liberal win in the Quebec Provincial election. Most business leaders attributed to the victory to PQ weakness or Charest s acumen. A few attributed the Liberal victory to the rise of pro-canadian sentiment in Quebec. Almost none were prepared to give Prime Minister Chretien credit. Table 4: (Q4) Turning to Quebec, as you know, Liberal leader Jean Charest was just elected Premier of the province. Which of the following best describes why Jean Charest was successful against the PQ? The Parti Quebecois was losing steam as a result of an ineffective leader and poor campaign 43 Jean Charest ran an excellent campaign 30 Quebecers increasingly recognize the value of national unity 22 Prime Minister Chretien has been especially successful at weakening the sovereignist movement 1 DNK/REFUSED 4 5
Methodology The National Post/COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small, medium, and large corporations and among executives of the local and national Chambers of Commerce was conducted April 15-17 2003. Respondents constitute an essentially hand-picked panel. Because medium and small companies are more numerous in the economy and hence among Chamber membership, the actual respondents in this consultative panel are drawn more from these strata than from the stratum of the largest companies. Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of n=161 are deemed accurate to within approximately 8 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal and co-investigator on this study are Conrad Winn, Ph.D and Tamara Gottlieb. 6