Two Holiday Gifts Boost Bush: Saddam, and the Economy Too

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: BUSH/ 04 ELECTION 12/21/03 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 8 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Monday Dec. 22, 2003 Two Holiday Gifts Boost Bush: Saddam, and the Economy Too More than the capture of Saddam Hussein is brightening George W. Bush s holidays: Economic discontent has eased as well, lifting the president with the 2004 campaign looming in what s been one of his most vulnerable areas. The double-pump of better news on the economy and in Iraq alike boosts the president over a mid-fall slump to a stronger political position than he s seen in months. Fiftyseven percent of Americans are satisfied with his administration s policies, and he tromps Howard Dean, the front-running but still little-known Democrat, by a wide margin. Some weaknesses remain including continued sub-par ratings for Bush s work on health insurance, prescription drugs, Medicare and the budget deficit, as well as views that he favors corporate interests (58 percent say so) and has damaged the United States image in the world (59 percent). But just 12 percent of Americans express anger at the administration s policies, a subject of some recent news coverage. Nearly six in 10 say he s done more to unite the country than to divide it. And while 23 percent strongly disapprove of his work in office, more, 39 percent, strongly approve. 70% Feelings Toward Bush's Policies ABC News/Washington Post poll 60% 57% 50% 40% 30% 20% Satisfied 41% 42% Dissatisfied 29% 10% 0% Enthusiastic 16% Positive Angry 12% Negative

Bush s overall job approval rating, 59 percent, is its best since August and up six points since early this month. His approval rating specifically for handling terrorism is up seven points since October to a very high 70 percent. On the Democratic side, Dean has vaulted to 31 percent support nationally for his party s presidential nomination, with for the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls all eight rivals in single digits. Perceptions of Dean as too liberal are no worse than perceptions of Bush as too conservative. But vast majorities of Democrats and the general public alike remain unfamiliar with his positions and personal qualities. Another result raises questions about Dean s efficacy as an anti-war candidate: Fiftyseven percent of Americans say they re more likely to vote for someone who supported the Iraq war than someone who opposed it. Among Democrats, 58 percent prefer a war opponent. But independents and Republicans prefer a supporter of the war, by 57 percent and 86 percent, respectively. ECONOMY While Saddam s capture clearly was welcome news, views of the economy possess more political clout. The economy and jobs are far and away the top issue in the presidential election, cited by 37 percent. (Fourteen percent say the campaign against terrorism is the most important issue in their vote, nine percent, the war in Iraq.) And Bush s economic footing, while far from ideal, has improved. More Americans now approve than disapprove of his work on the economy a first since April. Disapproval is down by 12 points from its mid-september high 56 percent then, 44 percent now. Bush's Handling of the Economy ABC News/Washington Post poll 80% 70% Approve 60% 50% Disapprove 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4/22/01 7/30/01 11/6/01 1/27/02 7/15/02 9/8/02 10/27/02 1/5/03 1/27/03 2/1/03 4/30/03 8/11/03 9/13/03 10/29/03 12/21/03

Positive ratings of the economy s condition, though still not robust, have improved by 12 points, from 30 percent on Sept. 13 to 42 percent now. And while 40 percent still say most Americans are worse off now than they were before Bush took office, that s down from a high of 52 percent three months ago. None of these economic ratings is what it could be; just 17 percent say Americans have gotten better off financially under Bush, and 57 percent rate the economy negatively. But their trajectory has improved. IRAQ Similarly, Bush s ratings are better, if not perfect, on Iraq. On the downside, the public splits evenly, 48-47 percent, on whether the administration has a clear plan for handling the situation there; and 60 percent call the level of casualties unacceptable. However, this is the first time in polls dating to August that fewer than half said the administration lacked a clear plan. It s the first time since October that concern about casualties hasn t increased. And other ratings are up: Fifty-nine percent say the war was worth fighting, up seven points from last month, before Saddam s capture; and 60 percent approve of Bush s work on the situation there, up 12 points. Most Americans also continue to give the administration a bye on finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq; 63 percent say the war can be justified even if none are found, same as it was last summer. 80% 70% Has the War Contributed to the Security of the U.S.? ABC News/Washington Post poll 62% 60% 50% Somewhat 29% 40% 34% 30% 20% Great Deal 34% 10% 0% Yes No In terms of the war s broadest justification, 62 percent say the war has contributed to the long-term security of the United States a key point for Bush, and one questioned by

Dean. But fewer, 34 percent, say the war has contributed a great deal to long-term U.S. security suggesting there s still room for debate on this fundamental question. Huge partisan differences remain on Iraq, and there s a substantial gender gap on some of these questions. Women are 10 points less likely than men to say the war was worth fighting, 14 points less likely to believe the administration has a clear plan, and 18 points less likely to say the level of U.S. casualties there is acceptable. Lastly on Iraq, more than two-thirds say the United States should give the United Nations and other countries a larger role in stabilizing and reconstructing the country; that may well reflect a desire for greater burden-sharing in the costs involved. MEDICARE If the economy and Iraq are looking up for Bush, his efforts to revamp Medicare deliver less. Forty-eight percent of Americans disapprove of his work on Medicare, compared with 40 percent who approve; and his approval rating for handling prescription drug benefits for the elderly is flat, at just 36 percent approval. It s hard to tell now if this reflects disapproval of the Medicare legislation Bush signed, or unfamiliarity with its terms. Given what they know about it, 37 percent of Americans approve of the legislation, 42 percent disapprove, and a substantial 21 percent have no opinion. That s not substantively different than it was earlier this month. But some ominous signs remain: Disapproval of the Medicare changes peaks at 50 percent among senior citizens, and even higher, at 63 percent, among the one in six Americans who are following the issue most closely (disproportionately, seniors). As previously, people who are paying the most attention to this legislation like it least. ELECTION If the election were today, 50 percent of Americans say they d support Bush for president, 41 percent the Democratic nominee. (Among registered voters it s about the same, 51-41 percent.) That s Bush s best in this generic match-up since spring, up from a 48-47 percent dead heat in late October. There s a substantial gender gap men prefer Bush by 55-36 percent, while women, who are more apt to be Democrats, divide about evenly, 45-46 percent. Independents, the quintessential swing voters, favor Bush by 50-38 percent; white Catholics, another key swing voter group, favor him by 53-36 percent. Bush does better still against Dean: In a head to head match-up it s 55-37 percent (again a similar 56-38 percent among registered voters). That s essentially the base Democratic vote; it s hard to go much lower. Dean does best in traditional Democratic strongholds, among groups such as liberals, union households, lower-income and non-white Americans. And he s very strong among war critics. But 22 percent of Democrats say they d support Bush over Dean (just six percent of Republicans defect in the other direction). And Bush earns 56 percent support among independents vs Dean s 35 percent.

DEAN Things can change; Dean s running now for the Democratic nomination, which is different from a general election campaign. And as noted, he s not at all well known. Few Americans feel they know a great deal or good amount about either his personal qualities (14 percent) or his position on the issues (17 percent). More than eight in 10 say they know only some about him, or less than that. That, of course, presents opportunity and risk alike an opportunity for Dean to fill the knowledge gap with an appealing message; and the risk that the Bush campaign will get there first and define him in a negative light. 80% Trust to Handle Issues: Bush or Dean? ABC News/Washington Post poll 70% 60% 67% Bush Dean 50% 50% 40% 39% 30% 20% 21% 10% 0% National security issues Domestic issues One clear point of combat, certainly if the Bush campaign has anything to say about it, will be on the issue of national security, where the president s approval is strongest. Americans by a huge 67-21 percent trust Bush over Dean to handle national security and the war on terrorism. Even among Democrats, Bush leads in this measure, 46-39 percent. Bush s lead is less overwhelming, but still meaningful, on domestic issues such as Social Security, health care and education. Fifty-percent trust Bush more, 39 percent, Dean. DEMS Dean s much stronger in the race he s running now. Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, 31 percent say they d support Dean if their state s primary or caucus were today. None of his eight opponents tops nine percent. Dean s support has doubled since mid-september; he s also soared in polls in several states, including New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

A fascinating aspect of Dean s support is that even Democrats even Democrats who support him aren t yet well informed about him. Among his own supporters for the nomination, just 28 percent say they know a great deal or good amount about his personal qualities, and a third say they know that much about his positions on the issues. At the same time, Dean supporters are more apt than other Democrats to say they re satisfied with the choice of candidates, 62 percent to 52 percent. Dean s support peaks among liberal Democrats (37 percent). But despite conventional wisdom, it s not higher among young Democrats than it is among their elders; nor is it better among mainstream Democrats than among Democratic-leaning independents (if anything, the reverse). He also does as well among non-whites as among whites. INTERNET The Internet thing, too, looks a tad oversold: Dean wins 33 percent support from people who use the internet for political news and information (just over a third of leaned Democrats); but he also wins 27 percent support among those who don t. Looking at it another way, among Dean supporters, four in 10 use the Internet for political news and information; but among all other Democratic candidates supporters, it s 36 percent about the same. It s a similar story among all Americans, not just Democrats. Bush s approval rating is 59 percent among people who don t use the Internet for news and political information and 58 percent among those who do. And a Bush-Dean match-up is 55-37 percent among non-internet users and 56-38 percent, again about the same, in the online crowd. All told, 37 percent of Americans say they use the Internet for political news and information, including 15 percent who use it a great deal. Sixty-three percent don t use it much, or at all, for political information. Use peaks among young adults (50 percent), the most-educated Americans (56 percent), and to some extent among those who take more extreme views of Bush s policies those who are either enthusiastic about his administration, at one end of the scale, or angry about it, at the other. CULTURE WARS A final, very interesting result pertains to the so-called culture wars the clash of moral and religious views as they relate to politics. In this survey a majority of Americans, 54 percent, say a president should not rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions; 40 percent say he should. There are many sharp divisions on this question: Republicans by nearly 2-1, 61-34 percent, say a president should rely on his religious beliefs in policy matters; among conservatives it s a similar 59-36 percent; among evangelical white Protestants, 69-27 percent. By contrast, non-evangelical white Protestants say by 59-36 percent that a president should not rely on religious beliefs in policymaking; so do more than six in 10 Democrats and independents alike; six in 10 moderates; two-thirds of young adults, and seven in 10 liberals.

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% % Saying Presidents Should Rely on Religious Beliefs ABC News/Washington Post poll 61% 59% 69% 50% 40% 30% 40% 30% 43% 28% 34% 24% 34% 36% 20% 10% 0% All 18-29 30+ Democrats Independents Republicans Liberals Moderates Conservatives White Prot: Non-Evang. White Prot: Evangelical There are regional differences as well; in the East and West, six in 10 or more say religion should stay out of a president s decision-making; that drops to about half in the Midwest and the South. Should a president rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions? Yes No All 40% 54 Republicans 61 34 Independents 34 62 Democrats 28 64 Conservatives 59 36 Moderates 34 61 Liberals 24 72 Evangelical white Protestants 69 27 Non-evangelical white Protestants 36 59 White Catholics 37 60 No religion 9 86 South 46 47 Midwest 45 51 West 35 60 East 28 65

Naturally these views cut strongly to political preferences. Among those who say religion should guide presidential policy decisions, 78 percent approve of Bush s work as president, and 70 percent prefer him against the generic Democratic nominee for president. Among those who say religion should stay out of it, by contrast, just 47 percent approve of Bush, and just 36 percent would vote to re-elect him. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 18-21 2003, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: <http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/pollvault/pollvault.html> Media contacts: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-6190. Results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 12/21/03 59 39 21 38 23 15 3 12/14/03 57 37 20 39 29 10 5 12/7/03 53 32 21 40 27 13 7 11/16/03 57 34 23 39 28 11 4 10/29/03 56 30 26 42 29 13 2 10/13/03 53 33 20 43 29 13 4 9/30/03 54 34 20 44 29 15 2 9/13/03 58 35 23 40 27 14 2 9/7/03 56 34 22 41 28 13 4 8/11/03 59 37 22 37 23 14 4 7/10/03 59 35 24 38 25 13 3 6/22/03 68 45 23 29 18 11 4 4/30/03 71 50 22 26 9 17 3 4/16/03 74 52 22 23 14 9 3 4/9/03 77 58 19 20 14 6 4 4/3/03 71 54 16 25 19 7 4 3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/03 62 38 23 35 22 13 4 2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/03 64 42 21 34 20 14 3 2/1/03 62 41 21 34 22 13 4 1/28/03 62 43 19 36 23 13 2 1/27/03 59 39 21 37 22 15 4 1/20/03 59 36 23 38 22 16 2 12/15/02 66 37 28 32 20 12 2 11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 20 12 1

11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 20 12 1 11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 23 9 1 10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 16 13 4 10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 16 14 3 9/26/02 67 42 25 30 18 12 3 9/8/02 71 42 28 27 15 12 3 7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3 7/15/02 72 42 31 25 13 12 2 6/17/02 74 42 32 22 13 9 4 6/9/02 77 41 36 20 11 9 3 5/19/02 76 48 28 22 13 8 3 4/21/02 78 47 31 20 10 9 2 3/28/02 79 49 30 18 10 8 3 3/10/02 82 52 30 16 7 9 2 1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3 12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2 11/27/01 89 69 21 9 5 4 1 11/6/01 89 65 24 9 4 5 2 10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1 9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4 9/13/01 86 63 23 12 6 5 2 9/9/01 55 26 29 41 22 20 3 8/12/01 61 28 33 31 17 14 8 7/30/01 59 28 30 38 22 17 3 6/3/01 55 27 28 40 22 18 6 4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5 3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (READ ITEM)? 12/21/03 - Summary Table* Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy 51 44 5 b. The situation in Iraq 60 39 2 c. Education 47 37 15 d. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 36 46 18 e. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 34 56 10 f. The federal budget deficit 37 52 10 g. The US campaign against terrorism 70 28 2 h. Medicare 40 48 12 *Half sample asked items a-f, other half asked g-k. Trend: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 51 44 5 11/16/03 48 49 3 10/29/03 45 53 2 10/13/03 45 52 2 9/13/03 42 56 3 9/7/03 44 51 5 8/11/03 45 51 5 7/10/03 47 49 4 4/30/03 52 45 3 2/9/03 47 49 4

2/1/03 44 52 4 1/28/03 46 49 4 1/27/03 47 47 5 1/20/03 43 53 4 1/5/03 50 43 7 12/15/02 50 46 4 11/4/02 LV 53 45 2 11/3/02 LV 52 46 2 11/2/02 LV 55 43 2 10/27/02 51 43 6 10/27/02 LV 53 44 3 9/26/02 51 47 3 9/8/02 57 40 4 7/28/02 57 39 4 7/15/02 58 38 3 4/21/02 64 33 3 1/27/02 62 34 4 12/19/01 67 27 6 11/6/01 72 23 5 9/9/01 48 48 4 7/30/01 52 45 3 6/3/01 53 41 6 4/22/01 55 38 7 3/25/01 50 42 8 b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 60 39 2 12/14/03 58 38 4 11/16/03 48 48 4 10/29/03 47 51 2 10/13/03 51 47 2 9/29/03 50 47 3 9/13/03 52 46 2 9/7/03 49 47 4 8/24/03 56 37 7 8/11/03 56 41 3 7/10/03 58 41 2 6/22/03 67 30 2 4/30/03 75 22 2 Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein 3/27/03 69 26 5 3/23/03 71 26 3 3/20/03 65 29 5 3/17/03 64 29 7 3/9/03 55 38 8 2/23/03 55 39 6 2/9/03 61 37 2 2/5/03 61 32 7 2/1/03 61 35 3 1/28/03 58 38 4 1/27/03 57 40 3 1/20/03 50 46 4 12/15/02 58 37 5 11/4/02 LV 56 40 4 11/3/02 LV 57 40 4 11/2/02 LV 56 41 3 10/27/02 57 38 5 9/26/02 58 39 3 9/14/02 65 31 4 8/29/02 52 36 12

c. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 47 37 15 10/29/03 55 38 7 9/13/03 56 39 6 4/30/03 59 34 7 12/15/02 62 30 8 9/26/02 61 32 7 7/15/02 62 31 6 1/27/02 71 21 8 9/9/01 61 32 7 7/30/01 63 31 5 6/3/01 57 35 8 4/22/01 60 28 12 d. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 36 46 18 10/29/03 36 46 18 10/13/03 34 43 22 9/13/03 35 54 11 4/30/03 44 40 17 2/1/03 46 35 19 e. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 34 56 10 10/29/03 28 63 9 10/13/03 30 60 10 9/13/03 32 61 7 4/30/03 34 57 9 1/28/03 40 47 13 1/20/03 36 51 13 12/15/02 33 58 9 f. The federal budget deficit Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 37 52 10 10/29/03 32 61 7 Compare to: The federal budget 9/13/03 38 57 4 8/11/03 41 50 9 4/30/03 43 50 6 2/9/03 45 45 10 2/1/03 47 46 8 1/20/03 43 47 10 7/15/02 50 42 8 1/27/02 59 30 12 9/9/01 46 48 6 7/30/01 53 42 5 g. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 70 28 2 10/29/03 63 35 2 10/13/03 66 30 4

9/13/03 70 27 3 9/7/03 67 28 5 4/30/03 79 19 2 2/9/03 74 23 4 2/1/03 75 21 3 1/27/03 72 26 2 1/20/03 71 25 4 12/15/02 79 20 1 11/4/02 LV 76 22 1 11/3/02 LV 77 22 3 11/2/02 LV 78 21 2 10/27/02 All 74 23 4 10/27/02 LV 78 20 2 9/26/02 70 28 2 9/8/02 74 24 2 7/28/02 81 17 2 7/15/02 83 15 2 5/19/02* 79 19 3 4/21/02* 81 18 2 3/10/02* 88 10 2 1/27/02 88 10 2 12/19/01* 89 9 2 10/15/01* 92 5 3 *Asked very/somewhat follow-up h. Medicare Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/21/03 40 48 12 2/1/03 44 41 16 3. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic nominee for president)? Net Leaned Vote: Democratic Other Neither Would No Bush nominee (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 12/21/03 All 50 41 1 2 2 3 RV 51 41 2 2 1 3 10/29/03 All 48 47 1 1 1 2 RV 48 47 1 1 1 2 10/13/03 All 45 48 1 2 1 3 RV 45 49 1 2 1 3 9/13/03 49 44 1 2 2 2 8/11/03 48 40 2 1 1 7 4/30/03 53 40 * 2 1 3 4. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Howard Dean, the Democrat), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote: Other Neither Would No Bush Dean (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 12/21/03 All 55 37 1 3 2 2 RV 56 38 1 3 1 2 10/29/03 All 54 39 1 3 1 2 RV 53 39 * 3 1 3 9/13/03 56 36 1 3 2 2

5. Which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president next year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (Health care), (Medicare and prescription drugs), (Social Security) or something else? Econ./ Educ- Health Mdcare/ Soc. No Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care drugs Sec. Oth. op. 12/21/03 14 9 37 12 8 6 7 6 2 6. Are you more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who (supported) going to war with Iraq, or for a candidate who (opposed) going to war with Iraq? No difference No Supported Opposed (vol.) opin. 12/21/03 57 35 6 2 7. Are you more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who wants to (keep the recent federal tax cuts in place), or for a candidate who wants to (reduce or repeal the recent federal tax cuts)? No difference No Keep Reduce (vol.) opin. 12/21/03 49 41 5 5 8. On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Worth Not worth No fighting fighting opinion 12/21/03 59 39 2 12/14/03 53 42 5 11/16/03 52 44 4 10/29/03 54 44 2 10/13/03 54 44 2 9/13/03 61 37 2 9/7/03 54 42 4 8/24/03 57 37 5 8/11/03 61 35 4 7/10/03 57 40 3 6/22/03 64 33 3 4/30/03 70 27 4 Gulf War: 2/2/92* 66 32 2 7/28/91 67 30 3 6/2/91 70 26 3 3/4/91 86 13 1 *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 9. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq? Acceptable Unacceptable No opinion 12/21/03 37 60 4 11/16/03 33 64 3

10/29/03 35 62 3 10/13/03 37 60 3 9/13/03 43 55 2 9/7/03 38 57 5 8/11/03 42 53 5 7/10/03 44 52 3 6/22/03 51 44 5 4/9/03 66 28 6 4/3/03 62 32 5 3/27/03 58 34 9 10. Do you think the Bush Administration does or does not have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq? Does Does not No opinion 12/21/03 48 47 5 10/13/03 42 53 5 9/13/03 42 55 2 8/26/03* 44 54 2 *Gallup. 11. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States? If yes: Has it contributed to the long-term security of the United States a great deal or somewhat? ----------Contributed---------- Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 12/21/03 62 34 29 34 4 7/10/03* 62 33 29 35 3 *"did or did not" 12. Do you think the United States can justify the war only if it finds weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or biological weapons, in Iraq; or do you think the United States can justify the war for other reasons, even if it does not find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Justify only Justify even Neither/No No if find WMD if no WMD justification opinion 12/21/03 20 63 14 3 6/22/03* 23 63 11 3 4/3/03 22 69 6 3 3/20/03 35 53 7 6 *"this war" 13. Do you think the Bush administration should or should not give the United Nations and other countries a larger role in stabilizing and reconstructing Iraq? Should Should not No opin. 12/21/03 68 28 4 14. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 12/21/03 42 4 39 57 41 16 1 10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 *

9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 * 8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 * 4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 * 2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 * 1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1 12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1 11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1 11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1 11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 * 9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 * 7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1 2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 * 1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 * 9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2 9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 * 7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 * 4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 * 1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1 10/27/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 * 10/26/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 * 6/11/00 74 17 57 26 19 6 * 2/27/00 80 25 55 20 14 5 * 10/31/99 74 18 56 26 18 7 1 9/2/99 76 19 57 23 16 6 1 3/14/99 80 22 58 19 15 4 1 11/1/98 73 12 61 26 21 5 1 11/1/98 LV 78 13 65 22 19 3 * 10/13/97 61 12 49 39 27 11 * 15. Over the next year do you think your own family s financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Better Worse Same No opin. 12/21/03 38 11 51 1 16. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 12/21/03 17 40 41 2 10/29/03 9 49 41 1 9/13/03 9 52 38 1 4/30/03 10 48 42 1 George H. W. Bush 8/9/92 6 61 31 1 10/21/91 7 48 41 4 3/4/91 7 35 56 2 1/16/89 33 26 38 3 17. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Bush or not. 12/21/03 - Summary Table Yes No No opin. a. He understands the problems of people like you 45 53 2 b. He is a strong leader 67 32 2

c. He has brought needed change to Washington 47 48 5 Trend: a. He understands the problems of people like you Yes No No opin. 12/21/03 45 53 2 10/29/03 40 58 2 9/13/03 48 51 1 4/30/03 51 48 1 12/15/02 51 47 2 7/15/02 57 41 2 1/27/02 61 37 2 7/30/01 45 54 2 4/22/01 47 51 2 11/4/00 LV 49 46 5 10/24/00 LV 50 46 3 10/15/00 RV 46 46 7 10/9/00 RV 50 44 6 9/6/00 RV 47 49 4 8/20/00 RV 50 46 5 7/23/00 RV 44 51 5 7/23/00 44 51 5 6/11/00 48 47 5 4/2/00 48 46 6 3/11/00 47 47 6 2/27/00 43 51 6 2/6/00 43 52 5 1/16/00 46 49 6 12/15/99 47 46 7 10/31/99 54 39 7 9/2/99 50 39 11 3/14/99 52 27 21 b. He is a strong leader Yes No No opin. 12/21/03 67 32 2 10/29/03 62 37 1 9/13/03 66 34 * 4/30/03 74 25 * 12/15/02 75 23 2 7/15/02 75 24 1 7/30/01 55 43 2 4/22/01 53 42 5 10/9/00 RV 62 33 5 9/6/00 RV 65 28 7 8/20/00 RV 65 29 5 8/10/00 RV 67 29 5 7/23/00 RV 61 33 6 7/23/00 62 32 5 6/11/00 65 30 6 4/2/00 68 27 5 3/11/00 63 31 6 2/27/00 62 32 6 2/6/00 65 30 7 1/16/00 65 28 7 12/15/99 67 26 7 10/31/99 77 18 5 9/2/99 70 18 12 3/14/99 68 13 20

c. He has brought needed change to Washington Yes No No opin. 12/21/03 47 48 5 9/13/03 49 48 4 12/15/02 53 44 3 7/30/01 50 47 3 9/6/00 RV* 55 41 5 7/23/00 RV 50 46 4 7/23/00 51 44 5 4/2/00 54 39 7 3/11/00 50 43 7 2/27/00 46 50 4 2/6/00 48 46 6 1/16/00 49 43 8 12/15/99 52 40 8 10/31/99 61 32 7 9/2/99 56 32 12 *9/6/00 and previous: "He would bring needed change to Washington" 18. How do you personally feel about the Bush administration s policies (enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry)? ---------Positive--------- --------Negative--------- No NET Enthus. Satis. NET Dissat. Angry opin. 12/21/03 57 16 41 42 29 12 1 19. Do you think Bush cares more about protecting the interests of (ordinary working people) or cares more about protecting the interests of (large business corporations)? Ordinary Large Both Neither No people corporations (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/21/03 29 58 7 3 3 7/15/02 37 50 8 1 4 4/22/01 28 60 5 1 5 3/25/01 31 61 3 1 4 20. Overall do you think Bush has done more to (unite the country), or has done more to (divide the country)? Unite Divide No opin. 12/21/03 58 36 6 21. Under Bush, do you think America's image in the rest of the world has gotten better or gotten worse? Better Worse Same (vol.) No opin. 12/21/03 32 59 6 3 998. (and 999) (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Joseph Lieberman, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, or Wesley Clark), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote: Wldn't No Lieb. Gep. Ker. Ed. Dean Clark Shar. Braun Kuc. Oth. None vote op. 12/21/03 All 8 8 8 6 29 7 4 5 2 1 7 2 13 RV 8 9 8 5 31 7 4 4 2 1 5 1 14 12/14/03 All 12 6 8 2 18 6 10 4 1 * 12 3 19 RV 12 6 7 2 20 7 7 3 2 * 12 2 20 10/29/03 All 13 13 8 5 16 12 7 5 2 1 7 2 11 RV 13 14 8 5 17 14 7 3 2 * 5 1 10 10/13/03 All 10 13 11 3 17 12 4 5 2 * 8 1 15 RV 10 14 11 2 17 14 3 4 2 * 9 1 13 9/13/03 All 22 14 14 3 14 6 5 4 2 5* 3 2 7 RV 21 14 14 3 15 6 5 4 2 3* 3 2 8 7/10/03 All 13 10 12 6 8 NA 6 4 2 5* 13 7 16 6/1/03 All 14 10 7 6 3 NA 2 1 1 41** 3 2 11 4/30/03 All 29 19 14 4 3 NA 3 6 2 4* 1 0 14 RV 30 20 14 3 3 NA 4 7 1 4* 2 0 13 1/20/03 All 27 14 10 11 3 NA 7 NA NA 1 4 0 24 7/15/02 All 10 5 6 3 1 NA NA NA NA 57*** * 0 18 *Other: Graham/Other **Other: H.R. Clinton, 37; Graham, 4; Other, * ***Other: Gore, 46; Daschle, 8; Other, 3 22. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the choice of Democratic candidates for president? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opin. 12/21/03 52 39 10 23. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) What's the most important issue to you in deciding your vote for the Democratic candidate for president? Is it: (the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, the health care system, education, the environment), or something else? War on War in Economy/ Health Educ- Envir- Smthg. No terrorism Iraq jobs care ation onment. else op. 12/21/03 4 6 51 13 13 3 8 2 10/29/03 5 6 54 12 11 3 7 2 24. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) What will be most important to your vote: (a candidate's stand on (ISSUE FROM Q23/ THE ISSUES ), or (your feelings about the importance of beating Bush)? 12/21/03 Candidate Importance of No stand on issue beating Bush opin. ALL ISSUES NET 73 25 2 25. How much do you feel you know about Howard Dean s personal qualities, such as experience and leadership ability - a great deal, a good amount, only some, or hardly anything? Great deal/ --Some/Hardly anything/nothing- ---Good amount--- Nothing No NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op. 12/21/03 All 14 4 10 86 31 45 10 * 12/21/03 Dems 14 4 11 85 30 49 6 * 10/29/03* 20 5 15 79 27 41 11 1 *Asked of Leaned Democrats.

26. How much do you feel you know about Dean s positions on specific issues - a great deal, a good amount, only some, or hardly anything? Great deal/ --Some/Hardly anything/nothing- ---Good amount--- Nothing No NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op. 12/21/03 All 17 4 13 83 32 43 8 1 12/21/03 Dems 17 4 14 82 33 42 7 1 10/29/03* 19 4 15 79 25 43 11 2 *Asked of Leaned Democrats. 27. Who do you trust more to handle national security and the war on terrorism, (Bush) or (Dean)? Both Neither No Bush Dean (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/21/03 67 21 1 7 5 28. Who do you trust more to handle domestic issues such as Social Security, health care and education, (Bush) or (Dean)? Both Neither No Bush Dean (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/21/03 50 39 * 5 5 29. Do you think Bush's views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opin. 12/21/03 14 29 52 5 6/3/01 15 32 50 4 4/22/01 10 31 55 3 9/6/00 RV 12 31 51 6 7/23/00 RV 12 29 52 7 7/23/00 12 28 52 8 3/11/00 12 28 52 8 2/27/00 10 33 51 5 2/24/00 12 33 43 12 2/6/00 12 30 49 8 9/2/99 10 20 58 13 3/14/99 7 20 53 20 30. Do you think Dean's views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opin. 12/21/03 28 7 36 28 31. On another subject, as you may know, Medicare is the government health insurance program for people 65 and over. How closely have you been following news about the changes in the Medicare program that were voted on by Congress last month - very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely or not closely at all? ------Closely------ -------Not closely------

NET Very Somewhat NET Not too Not at all No opin. 12/21/03 51 18 33 49 25 23 * 12/7/03 52 17 35 47 23 24 * 32. Given what you know about it, do you approve or disapprove of the Medicare changes voted on by Congress last month? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 12/21/03 37 NA NA 42 NA NA 21 12/7/03 32 7 25 38 19 19 30 33. On another subject, do you think a president should or should not rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions? Should Should not Depends (vol.) No opin. 12/21/03 40 54 5 1 34. How much do you use the internet to get news or information about political candidates - a great deal, somewhat, not much or not at all? ---Great deal/somewhat--- -----Not much/at all----- No NET Grt. deal Smwt. NET Not much At all opin. 12/21/03 37 15 22 63 21 42 * ***END***