North Africa s Arab Spring Political and Social Changes

North Africa s Arab Spring Political and Social Changes INTERNATIONAL BANKING FORUM 2013 Brescia, 13-14 th June 2013 Francesco Anghelone Scientific Coordinator Istituto di Studi Politici S. Pio V

Presentation Overview 1. Arab Spring Causes 2. Arab Spring Characteristics, Main Actors and Results 3. Case Studies 1. Morocco 2. Tunisia 3. Egypt 4. Libya 4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring 5. Conclusions 2

Arab Spring - Causes 1. Economic factors 2. Political factors 3. Social factors 4. Technological factors 4

Arab Spring - Causes Economic Factors 1. Unemployment - Underemployment especially among young people 20% across the region and 30% in Libya in 2011 2. Poverty 3. Rising of food prices (in 2008 food riots took place in the region) 4. Huge and unsustainable demographic expansion (the population of the region doubled since 1980 with 60% under 25 years old) 5. Economic mismanagement 5

Arab Spring - Causes Political Factors 1. Authoritarian regimes 2. Denied freedom of expression 3. Limited opportunities for participation in political and civil life 4. Long standing emergency laws 5. Malfunctioning or absent justice system 6. Repressive security state apparatus 7. Human rights abuses 8. Lack of democracy 6

Arab Spring - Causes Social Factors 1. Lack of social mobility 2. Widening inequality 3. Visible evidences of corruption 4. Enrichment of elites 5. Rising education levels and literacy rates (young people) 6. Lack of dignity 7

Arab Spring - Causes Technological factors 1. Internet spread (especially between young people) 2. Use of social networks 3. New forms of communication 4. Internet helped young people to be part of the globalization process 5. Internet and social networks were a platform used to organize the protest movements 8

Arab Spring - Causes Economic, Political, Social and Technological Factors Can help us to understand why North African populations and especially young people became aware of their Relative Deprivation They wanted an alternative to their repressive and authoritarian governments 9

Arab Spring - Causes Relative Deprivation Theory In sociology, relative deprivation theory is a view of social change and movements, according to which people take action for social change in order to acquire something (for example, opportunities, status, or wealth) that others possess and which they believe they should have, too. Some sociologists believe relative deprivation theory explains why people join social movements or advocate social change. The comprehension of the causes of the Arab Spring movements can help us to understand their characteristics 10

Arab Spring - Characteristics, Main Actors and Results Characteristics of the Arab Spring Movements 1. Protests were not ideological 2. Protests did not seek to impose a particular set of beliefs or order 3. Protests united discontent citizens with different political, economic and religious views 4. No central planning 5. No major leaders or organization capacity 6. Arab Spring movements repudiated the idea that Arab societies and cultures were incompatible with democracy 12

Arab Spring - Characteristics, Main Actors and Results Main Actors of the Arab Spring Movements 1st Phase 1. Young people 2. Citizens from different social classes 3. Unemployed people 4. Secular parties or organizations 2nd Phase 1. Young people 2. Citizens from different social classes 3. Unemployed people 4. Secular parties or organizations 5. Islamic parties and organizations 13

Arab Spring - Characteristics, Main Actors and Results Results of the Arab Spring Movements The main result is the victory of the Islamic parties Main reasons: 1. Organization capacity 2. Widespread presence around the countries 3. Experience in political and social activities 4. Welfare services offered 5. Strong set of values 14

Case studies Context M o r o c c o Protests Results Strong national identity Monarchy as an element of national unity Constitutional stability Multiparty system Political elections Historical ties with Europe Good Economic Performances Limited (February 20 th Movement) King Mohammed VI responded quickly and proposed reforms King Mohammed VI initiatives gave the idea of a transformation of the Monarchy into a constitutional one Political elections anticipated by one year Victory of the Justice and Development Party Political integration of Islamic forces in the constitutional framework Substantial Political Stability Good Economic environment 16

Case studies Context Tu n i s i a Protests Results Strong national identity Suicide of Mohammed Bouazizi Well integrated society Start of the Arab Spring uprisings High performances on human Strong repression by police forces resource indicators Widespread revolts in the country Historical ties with Europe Army decided to remain neutral Well-educated and literate End of the Ben Ali government population Election of the Constituent Assembly Authoritarian regime Moncef Marzouki elected President No political freedom No good economic performances Ben Ali President (Rassemblement Constitutionnel Démocratique) Majority to the Ennahda Party Integration of political Islam in the constitutional framework Uncertain political stability (Murder of Chokri Belaid, leader of the opposition) Economic uncertainty 17

Case studies Context E g y p t Protests Results Important centre of the Islamic culture Strong national identity Well integrated society Long political and social traditions Authoritarian regime No political freedom No good economic performances Mubarak President (National Democratic Party) Muslim Brotherhood is the only organised alternative Started in January 2011 Mubarak changed the Prime minister Police repression Army maintained neutral position Mubarak resignation Military took power Political Elections Freedom and Justice Party 47% (MB) Al Nour 24% - (Salafi) Presidential Elections Elected Mohamed Morsi (MB) Islamic forces in power Role of the military still important Uncertain political stability Difficult relations between Muslim Brotherhood and secular parties Economic uncertainty 18

Case studies Context L i b y a Protests Results No national identity (Cyrenaica, Tripolitania, Fezzan) Authoritarian and personalistic political regime Low level of institutionalization No multiparty system Tribes are the most important social institutions Economy in the hands of the government Day of Rage In Cyrenaica we had the strongest opposition against Gheddafi s government Strong repression ordered by Gheddafi Division in the armed forces Mercenaries used by Gheddafi Unified Protector - NATO mission (23 rd March 2011) Gheddafi is killed (20 th October 2011) Elections Unstable Political situation Divisions in the country No security Presence of radical Islamic forces Economic instability 19

Case studies After the Arab Spring Power of political Islam increased Important social and political changes Economic problems unsolved Democratization process started 20

EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring The Arab Spring started a democratization process Historic opportunity for NA countries and for EU EU political and economic support is important for the success of the process Rethinking EU approach to North African region Europe should: Support the economic development of the region Foster a new impulse to intra-regional integration Support the nation-building process in the North African countries Support private investments in the region 22

EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring Democratic Transition Process needs Improvement of the economic conditions Decrease of unemployment/underemployment Economic growth Improvement of the political context Political freedom Multiparty systems Improvement of the social context Freedom of expression Better welfare services 23

EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring Europe should play a more active role in the North African area EU Mediterranean countries should support a new political and economic approach to the NA countries China Africa s largest trading partner Model for NA countries Persian Gulf countries In Tunisia Qatar has the leading position in terms of country originating highest FDI flows New challenges for the UE - New players in the area Important investments in Morocco Turkey Model for NA countries New relationships with governments led by the Islamic parties 24

Conclusions If the North African countries transition to democracy will not be completed: Political and social instability in the area Difficult economic development in the North African countries Rising of radical Islam Growing demographic pressure on EU countries Rising of security threats in the Mediterranean area 26

Conclusions If the North African countries transition to democracy will be completed: Advantages for North African countries Political and social stability Economic Development Attraction of Foreign Private Investments Possibility of intra-regional integration Advantages for EU countries Decrease of demographic pressure on EU countries More security in the Mediterranean area Access to energy supplies Economic opportunities for European enterprises New markets for European products Better relations with the wider Muslim world 27