THE INDEPENDENT lind NOI\! ~)i\fnis/\i\j SLIF~\!E'( OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTJ\BUSHED :i\1 1?4 7 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL U'i MERVIN FIELD 550 Kearny Street, SUite ~j()i) San FrancIsco, CII 94!Od~)i<) (415) 781-4921 FAX. i41::i! 4:0 1 ;:I,I! COPYRIGlIT 1994 BY THE FIELD INSTI1UIE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #1730 Release Date: Friday, September 23,1994 WILSON MOVES AHEAD IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast OF BROWN IN takes place before release date or if contents are GOVERNOR'S RACE~ divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field prior to release time. assn 0195-4520) The Republican Pete Wilson, who less than one year ago was running seventeen points behind Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown in the governor's race, has now pulled ahead to the front-runner position. Among registered voters Wilson leads Brown 46% to 43% with 11 % undecided. Among voters deemed to be most likely to vote in November Wilson's lead is larger - 48% to 41% and 11% undecided. fmdings represent a dramatic turnaround in preferences during this long political campaign. In four measurements taken last year, Brown led Wilson by margins ranging from 13 to 23 points among registered voters. In four 1994 surveys prior to this one, Brown was still maintaining a lead of from five to eleven points. Now Wilson for the first time in nine Field Poll surveys has pulled ahead of his Democratic rival. Table 1 Trend of general election preferences for Governor Wilson Brown Undecided Likely voters - Sept. '94 48% 41 11 Re&istered voters September '94 46% 43 11 July '94 39% 44 17 May '94 42% 50 8 April '94 39% 51 10 January '94 38% 46 16 October '93 33% 50 17 August '93 37% 50 13 May '93 30% 53 17 February '93 37% 53 10 (likely voters are those who indicated they were absolutely orfairly certain to vote in the November election and voted in at least one statewide election since 1990.) The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and Impartial public opinion news service The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of.publlc opinion and behavior on social and political issues The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the Widest possible dissemination of Its survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, government, media, and private sources.
.. The Field Poll #1730 Friday, September 23,1994 Page 2 Sub-eroup differences An examination of how voter preferences split across the various demographic and geographic subgroups of the electorate provides some detail and explanation as to why Wilson is now leading Brown. In Southern California, the area where the majority of voters live, Wilson holds a seventeen point lead among likely voters. In Northern California, Brown leads by a narrow 48% to 43% margin. Wilson attracts greater cross-party support than his Democratic opponent The Governor is preferred by 27% of rank-and-file Democrats, while Brown garners just 16% of the GOP voters. ' Gender continues to playa significant role in this race, but appears now to benefit Wilson more than Brown. Among women Brown holds an eight point advantage over Wilson, 49% to 41 %. However, Wilson's margin over Brown among men is twenty-one points (55% to 34%). Wilson's strongest constituency are Republican men, who support the incumbent 83% to 11%. By contrast, Brown's strongest supporters, Democratic women, favor her by a smaller 68% to 23% margin. Conservatives are also one-sided in their support of Wilson (80% to 13%), while Brown is favored 84% to 14% among liberals. However, 33% of voters classify themselves as conservative to some degree while just 22% style themselves as liberals. Wilson at 43% and Brown at 40% are evenly dividing the critical middle-of-the-road ideological group (44% of all voters). Brown leads among the youngest voters (age 18-29) by a margin of 53% to 37%. However, among the larger group of voters age 60 and older Wilson leads 60% to 36%. About 25% of likely voters are 60 and over, while just 13% are in the 18-29 age group. Among the voters in the 30 to 59 year old range, Wilson leads by a narrow margin. There are also wide differences between homeowners and renters in gubernatorial preferences. Among the approximately two-thirds of the likely electorate who are homeowners, Wilson is preferred 54% to 35%. Conversely, among renters Brown is favored by a 54% to 37% margin.
Preferences The Field Poll #1730 Friday, September 23, 1994 Page 3 Table 2 for Governor by subgroup (among likely voters) Wilson Brown Undecided Statewide 48% 41 11 Re~ion Southern California 53% 36 11 Northern California 43% 48 9 fw Democrats 27% 64 9 Republicans 77% 16 7 Others ** 43% 37 20 Gender Women 41% 49 10 Men 55% 34 11 GenderlPany Democratic women 23% 68 9 Democratic men 31% 58 11 Republican women 69% 21 10 Republican men 83% 11 6 Political ideo1qgy Conservative 80% 13 7 Middle-of-the-road 43% 40 17 tiberal 14% 84 2 Tenure Homeowner 37% 54 9 Renter 54% 35 11 ~ 18-29** 37% 53 10 30-39 48% 43 9 40-49 48% 40 12 50-59 ** 42% 39 19 60 or older 60% 36 4 **Reltitively small sample Reasons for Iikin&!dislikin& the candidates When voters are asked what they like about Wilson the two most frequent volunteered responses are that he is "tough on crime" (19%) and that he "wants to get tough on illegal immigration" (18%). '. The two most often cited positive comments about Brown are more general: "she will bring about change I she has new ideas" (15%) and "she is honest I has integrity I is sincere" (12%).
The Field Poll Friday, September 23,1994 #1730 Page 4 On the negative side, when asked what they dislike about Wilson, 12% of voters cite "immigrant bashing! he's dividing people against one another". Another 10% believe he "hasn't done enough for schools" and 9% say he "hasn't done enough to improve the state's economy". The highest ranking dislike expressed about Brown is "don't like her views on the death penalty" (12%). Another 9% say that Brown is "too liberal! would open up social spending" and a similar proportion volunteers that she is "not tough enough on crime". Table 3 Things LIKED about Wilson - volunteered comments Tough on crime. 19% Wants to get tough on illegal immigration 18 Honest I forthright I has integrity 9 Hard-working I committed I doing well in tough situation 8 Like his ideas on the economy 7 Is a Republican 7 Looking out for the state's interests 3 Handled crises, the L.A earthquake well 3 Is looking out for the taxpayer 2 Has political experience I a long record 2 Has been a good Governor 2 Like his ideas on welfare 2 Not too conservative 2 Like his views on education 2 Other comments (each less than 2%) 11 Nothing liked 23 No answer I can't offer anything specific 17 Table 4 Things LIKED about Brown - volunteered comments Will bring change I has new ideas 15% Honest I has integrity I sincere 12 Will do more for the schools 10 Like her family I was raised into politics 9 Would like a woman Governor 7 Has experience as Treasurer I understands the financial side of government 5 Will do more to improve the economy 4 Hardworking I committed I motivated 4 Will do more to reduce crime 4 Like her (generally) 4 Like her position on illegal immigration 2 Cares about people I listens 2 Other mentions (each less than 2%) 15 Nothing liked 15 No answer I can't offer anything specific 24 (Tables add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions)
The Field Poll Friday, September 23, 1994 #1730 Page 6 Wilson's job perfonnance ratillj:s Despite Wilson's newly established front runner status, more voters continue to view his job performance negatively than positively. Thirty-five percent of registered voters think Wilson is doing a poor or very poor job as Governor while 29% believe that he is doing a very good or good job. Although this is a slight improvement from Wilson's July job ratings, the proportion of voters rating the Governor negatively has exceeded the proportion who rate him positively in each of the last fifteen Field Poll measurements taken since September 1991. Table 7 Trend of Wilsoq's job perfonnance ratings as Governor Verygoodl Poorl No Good. Fair veiypoor opinion September 1994 29% 33 35 3 July 1994 25% 32 41 2 May 1994 29% 36 33 2 April1994 27% 34 36 3 Jan. 1994 25% 32 40 3 October 1993 22% 32 44 2 August 1993 23% 38 35 4 May 1993 15% 35 45 5 February 1993 24% 28 46 2 September 1992 18% 27 52 3 July 1992 20% 28 48 4 May 1992 30% 33 36 1 March 1992 23% 37 36 4 January 1992 28% 33 35 4 September 1991 29% 32 33 6 June 1991 37% 33 23 7 February 1991 36% 31 12 21 Brown's job perfonnance ratines Kathleen Brown was elected in 1990 as State Treasurer, an office with much less visibility and importance than that of Governor. While somewhat larger proportions of voters are unable to rate her job performance as can rate Wilson's, those that do give her rather positive appraisals. Currently, 40% of voters feel Brown is doing a good or very good job as Treasurer, 30% rate her perfonnance fair and 15% give her a poor or very poor appraisal.
The Field Poll #1730 Friday, September 23,1994 PageS Nothing Table 5 Things DISLIKED about Wilson - volunteered comments Dislike his immigrant bashing! dividing people against one another 12% Hasn't done enough for the schools 10 Hasn't done enough to improve state's economy 9 Hasn't balanced the budget' has created a budget deficit 7 Hasn't provided strong leadership 6 Has raised taxes 6 Don't agree with his views (generally) 5 Not believable' hasn't kept.his campaign promises 5 Hasn't been effective in reducing crime 4 Too interested in what's good for big business, lobbyists 4 Don't like his personality 3 Don't like his views on abortion 3 Don't like his welfare policies 3 He's a Republican 2 He's inflexible' stubborn 2 Other mentions (less than 2%) 20 disliked 15 No answer' can't offer anything specific 17 Table 6 Things DISLIKED about Brown - volunteered comments Don't like her views on the death penalty 12% Too liberal! would open up social spending 9 Not tough enough on crime 9 Is not believable' not trustworthy 8 Don't like her family' her brother 8 Not tough enough on illegal immigration 7 Not experienced enough! wouldn't be effective 6 Don't like her attacks on Wilson 3 Fear that she might raise taxes 3 Other mentions (each less than 2%) 14 Nothing disliked 18 No answer' can't offer anything specific 30 (Tables add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions)
The Field Poll Friday, September 23,1994 #1730 Page 7 ill Table 8 Trend of Brown's job perfonnance ratings as State Treasurer Very goodl Poor! No ~ EBk yerypoor opinion September 1994 40% 30 15 15 July 1994 34% 30 12 24 August 1993 33% 27 11 29 February 1993 33% 26 11 30 May 1992 24% 23 9 44 January 1992 26% 28 10 36 September 1991 25% 22 8 45 Wilson and Brown's ima:e BPpraisals. Apart from job performance ratings, another dimension as to how voters appraise candidates is their degree of favorable and unfavorable views. During his years as U. S. Senator, voters consistently viewed Wilson much more favorably than unfavorably. However, his more recent appraisals as Governor are much more polarized. Brown's case, the proportion of the public which views her unfavorably has increased steadily during this year's campaign, although her overall image among voters remains more positive than negative. Wilson September '94 April '94 January '94 June '91 October '90 February '90 October '89 July '88 August '86 February '85 Brown September '94 April '94 January '94 Table 9 Trend in Wilson's and Brown's image ratings Fayorable 49% 49% 43% 53% 55% 67% 65% 57% 57% 58% 48% 43% 40% -30 Unfavorable 45 45 48 34 35 23 20 16 15 13 35 24 15 No qpinion 6 6 9 13 10 10 15 27 28 29,17 33 45
The Field Poll Friday, September 23, 1994 #1730 Page 8 Sample Details Information About the Survey The results in this report are based on a survey of 855 Californians conducted September 13-18, 1994, including a representative statewide sample of 574 registered voters. The survey was completed by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible respondent fatigue, the overall sample was divided into subsamples of approximately 150 voters each when asking the like and dislikes about each candidate. The sample sizes of the likely voter subgroups reported in this release are as follows: total likely voters (511), Southern California (287), Northern Californians (224), Democrats (247), Republicans (204), others (60), conservative (167), middle-of-the-road (229), liberal (115), women (258), men (253), Democratic women (137), Democratic men (111), Republican women (96), Republican men (108), 18-29 (68), 30-39 (124), 40-49 (115), 50 59 (77), and 60 or older (129), homeowners (348) and renters (161). Estimates ofsampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% of the time fmdings from the overall registered voter sample have a sampling error range of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Sampling error of fmdings from voter subsamples would be larger. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors or omission in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such errors. Questions Asked What kind ofjob do you think Pete Wilson is doing as Governor ofcalifornia - a very good, good, fair, poor or very poor job? What kind of job do you think: Kathleen Brown is doing as State Treasurer - good, fair, poor or very poor job? a very good, There will be an election this year for Governor and U.S. Senate and some prominent Democrats and Republicans are running. I am going to read the names of these people to you. For each, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of (Pete Wilson, Governor)(Kathleen Brown, State Treasurer) favorable or unfavorable? In the race for Governor, Republican Pete Wilson is running against Democrat Kathleen Brown. If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote for Governor Pete Wilson or Kathleen Brown? Regardless of whether you plan to vote for (pete Wilson)(Kathleen Brown) for Governor, what are some of the things you like about (Wilson)(Brown)? (PROBE) Anything else? And what are some of the things you dislike about (Wilson)(Brown)? (PROBE) Anything else?