Regional prospects: Western Asia Project LINK Meeting 2016 Yasuhisa Yamamoto October 20, 2016
Western Asia: Major influencing factors Continuing armed violence/conflicts in the region Low oil prices Fed s policy interest rate hike Slowing down of global growth centers such as China Improved terms-oftrade for non-oil exporters Market USD interest rates remain low. Very Low inflationary pressures Strong growth performance of South Asian economies Note: This presentation focuses on Arab economies in the Western Asia, which are: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (GCC countries); Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen. The view expressed in this presentation does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United Nations and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).
Oil, geopolitics, economies, expectations 20.00 Stock Market Index Change over 1Q to 3Q, 2016 (%) 10.00 0.00-10.00-20.00 Change% -30.00-40.00-50.00 Dubai Qatar Saudi Arabia Bahrain Abu Dhabi Oman Lebanon Kuwait Jordan Palestine Iraq Syria Exchange rate-adjusted for Iraq, Kuwait and Syria Sources: Bloomberg, Damascus Stock Exchange, Iraq Stock Exchange
Stagnating GDP growths 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017-10.0% -15.0% Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria UAE Yemen Sources: National sources and ESCWA estimates/forecasts; Note: Yemmen s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 34.6 percent in 2015 (off the scale of the graph)
Fiscal balances (percentage of nominal GDP) 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2014-10.0% 2015 2016 2017-20.0% -30.0% -40.0% Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Yemen Sources: ESCWA staff estimates/forecasts as of October 2016, based on national sources
Current account balances (percentage of nominal GDP) 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017-10.0% -20.0% -30.0% Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Sources: ESCWA staff estimates/forecasts based on International Financial Statistics (International Monetary Fund) and national sources
Current account balance External/Fiscal balances: patterns 10.0% Kuwait 2015 Qatar 2015 5.0% 0.0% Kuwait 2016 UAE 2016 Iraq 2016 UAE 2015 Iraq 2015 Qatar 2016-5.0% Bahrain 2015-10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Saudi Arabia 2015 Bahrain 2016 Saudi Arabia 2016 Oman 2015 Lebanon 2016 Lebanon 2015 Oman 2016 Jordan 2016 Jordan 2015 Palestine 2016 Palestine 2015-25.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Fiscal balance
Inflation Outlook Consumer price inflation rate annual average 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.0% -10.0% Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria UAE Yemen Sources: National sources. Figures for 2016 and 2017 are forecasts as of October 2016. Figures for Yemen are ESCWA staff estimates.
Food Consumer price inflation: patterns 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Kuwait 2015 Bahrain 2016 Bahrain 2015 Palestine 2015 Saudi Arabia 2015 Kuwait 2016 1.0% Jordan 2015 UAE 2016 Qatar 2015 UAE 2015 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Lebanon 2015 Lebanon 2016 Palestine 2016 Oman 2015 Oman 2016 Qatar 2016 Saudi Arabia 2016-3.0% Jordan 2016-4.0% -5.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% General
3-months Money Market Rates USD LIBOR Jordan UAE Kuwait Saudi Arabia 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), 3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), based on U.S. Dollar [USD3MTD156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Association of Banks in Jordan, Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, Central Bank of Kuwait, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
Monetary transmissions Saudi Arabia (Foreign reserves at the end of 1H 2016: 28 months of imports) United Arab Emirates (Foreign reserves at the end of 1H 2016: 4 months of imports) Total Reserves excluding Gold (USD million: Right Scale) Total Reserves excluding Gold (USD million: Right Scale) Broad money (y-o-y growth %: Left Scale) Broad money (y-o-y growth %: Left Scale) 25% 800000 25% 100000 20% 15% 700000 600000 500000 20% 15% 90000 80000 70000 60000 10% 400000 10% 50000 5% 0% 300000 200000 100000 5% 0% 40000 30000 20000 10000-5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0-5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 Sources: International Financial Statistics (International Monetary Fund); Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Central Bank of UAE
Points to consider Geopolitical risks/armed violence Recovery of oil prices Recovery of oil export revenues Positive spillover from South Asian economies The impacts of future US interest rate hikes Crowding out of private investments Economic reform measures
Thank you.