COUNTRY REPORT /afghanistan Parliamentary Elections in Afghanistan Democracy without Parties? For Afghanistan the election year 2010 is the bloodiest year since the Taliban regime was expelled from power. In spite of the eroding security situation Afghanistan will elect a new parliament on September 18, 2010. For this reason, the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung and the National Centre for Policy Research (NCPR) of the Kabul University have carried out a survey which reflects the opinion trends of the Afghan society. Since 2008, this study is the third of its kind. It provides information on the attitude of the Afghan people towards topics like politics and security as well as the future role of the Taliban. The first section of this report introduces the survey results. In the second section, the overall conditions are described in detail. The third section discusses future prospects and gives policy recommendations. In the period from August 30 to September 6, 2010 5,000 people in five provinces of Afghanistan (Kabul: 1,000, Herat: 1,000, Nangarhar: 1,000, Khost: 1,000 and Balkh: 1,000) were interviewed. Each of them was asked to answer 12 twelve Yes / No questions. The provinces were selected because they represent the North, the South, the East and the West of the country. Moreover, they have university structures which were involved in the survey. Therefore, the opinion poll is not genuinely representative. However, it still grants an insight into present opinion trends in Afghanistan. Democracy Development (+2 PP) In the survey, 58% of the interviewees indicated to be contented with the democratic developments in Afghanistan, whereas 42% are discontented with the developments. This shows a modest improvement of two percentage points compared with the prior year. However, there are huge differences regarding the perception. In North and West Afghanistan the interviewees seem to judge the development substantially more positively than in the East of the country. In the province of Nangarhar, for example, only 24% of the interviewees indicated to be contented with the democracy development. Performance of Government (+1 PP) According to the survey results the assessment of the performance of the Afghan government does not differ compared to the prior year. The overall assessment still turns out dissatisfactory, but at least 35% of the interviewees indicated to be satisfied with the government performance. This shows an improvement of 15 percentage points compared to 2008. It is remarkable that in this year s survey particularly many interviewees in the capital of Kabul expressed their annoyance about the government s work. Only 19% classify the performance of the government as good. This is probably due to the crisis of the Kabul Bank and the proved involvement of family members of the Afghan president and vice president.
2 /afghanistan Performance of Parliament (-2 PP) A similar trend can be observed in the assessment of the performance of the Afghan Parliament. In 2008, only 25% of the interviewees responded to the question positively, in 2009 the percentage increased to 32%. In this year's survey this figure declined to 30%. Political Parties (-3 PP) In this year s opinion poll, 37% answered Yes to the question if political parties play a role in Afghanistan. In 2008, this view was expressed by 48% of the survey participants, in 2009 this figure dropped to 40%. Given the low number of candidates for the upcoming parliamentary election who are organised in parties, this figure seems to be plausible. Parliamentary Elections 2010 (-7 PP) A total of 70% of the interviewees indicated to exercise their right to vote in the parliamentary elections in, whereas 30% do not want to go to the polls. In 2009 77% answered the question positively and 23% negatively. The figures indicate that in Afghanistan there is still a major interest in sovereignty of the people, the right of self-determination. ISAF a Guarantor for Security? (+9 PP) Unlike in the previous year, the survey participants seem to perceive the ISAF increasingly as a guarantor for security in Afghanistan. In 2009 36% of the interviewees stated that the ISAF is a guarantor for security and peace. In this year's opinion poll this figure rose to 46%. This means an increase of nine percentage points compared to the previous year. Moreover, the current survey reveals considerable variations between the North and the East of Afghanistan. For example, in the province of Balkh located in the North of the country, in which the armed forces are represented very strongly, the question was answered positively by 59% of the interviewees. This is 13 percentage points over the average number. On the other hand, in the province of Nangarhar which is situated in the East of the country only 14% of the interviewees perceived the ISAF as a guarantor for security. Therefore, in the view of the survey participants the North still seems to be relatively stable. Compared to the province of Nangarhar, the difference even adds up to 45 percent points. Bilateral Relations with Pakistan (+/-0 PP) The bilateral relations with Pakistan play an ambivalent role in the Afghan history. Since the beginning of 2008, the bilateral relations of the two neighbouring states improved significantly. This is in accord with the interests of the interviewees: As in the previous year, 79% of the survey participants say that it is important to intensify the bilateral relations with Pakistan. Especially the provinces in the border region, Nangarhar (91%), Khost (86%) and Kabul (80%) assess this development as good. The interest in the Western province of Herat (66%) and the Northern province of Balkh (70%) seems to be pronounced as well, although not as strong. Security Situation (+3 PP) 69% of the interviewees assessed the present security situation as nonsatisfying. Only 31% judge the security situation in the country as good. In comparison to the previous year this is an improvement of 3 percentage points despite the increasing number of civilian casualties. Commitment of the International Community (+/-0 PP) 2,252 of the 5,000 survey participants assessed the commitment of the international community in Afghanistan as positive; this is about 45%. On the other hand, 55% of the interviewees were discontented. The current trend value equals the previous year s results. However, the answers to this question differ widely by region: In the province of Balkh 54% of the survey participants assessed the commitment posi-
3 /afghanistan tively, in Khost 53%, in Nangarhar 41%, in Herat 48% and in Kabul 28%. Future Role of the Taliban (+4 PP) As a short-term military success against the Taliban seems unlikely, many Afghans perceive themselves increasingly as victims caught between the fronts of an escalating conflict. Moreover, the political pragmatism of the civil wartime seems to have returned. This is at least suggested by the results of the opinion poll: 74% of the interviewees are in favour of taking up talks with the armed opposition in Afghanistan. In the provinces of Nangarhar and Khost situated in the East even 90% or 88% wish for this, whereas in the Western province of Herat it is only 61% of the interviewees, in Kabul 62% and in Balkh 67%. The question whether the political power should be shared with the Taliban was answered very differently in the provinces. Overall, 61% of the interviewees said Yes, whereas 39% said No. Once more there is a wide gap between the East of the country and the remaining provinces. In Khost and Nangarhar 86% and 84% respectively prefer this solution. In Kabul 47% agreed to this, in Balkh 53% and in Herat only 35%. Transparent Elections (+4 PP) Only 36% of the survey participants are expecting transparent elections, whereas 64% fear a lack of transparency which, among other things, includes vote rigging. Especially in the province of Kabul this impression seems to prevail increasingly: 80% are anticipating irregularities in the parliamentary election 2010. This is 16 percentage points more than the average. of all seats are reserved. Moreover, 10 seats are reserved for the Kuchi, the Afghan nomads. To become a candidate, certain requirements have to be fulfilled: A candidate must be at least 25 years old, he has to show at least 1,000 support signatures, and he has to deposit a security of an equivalent of 520 Euros. Furthermore, one has to run through the voter registration. In addition, no criminal offences may have been committed by the candidate. Since weeks metropolises like Kabul, Herat, Kandahar and Mazar-e-Sharif are overrun by an impressive flood of posters. Even in small villages a run on strategically favourably situated advertising spaces started. The poster and stickers show the politicians often in Western clothes or in the national dress, depending on where the electoral advertisement is placed. In rural areas portraits of the candidates with full beard, turban, Shalwar Kameez and waistcoat predominate. In the cities the candidates prefer to appear in a modern suit, elegant tie and fashionably trimmed walrus moustache or clean-shaven. Women mostly prefer to be photographed in the conservative Hijab. Some of them suggest emancipated self-confidence, flirting with some strands of hair sticking out from under the headscarf. In general, it can be stated that the posters play a key role they are clearly of more interest than party programmes or public events. The former are not read the latter are too dangerous. Hence, in the election campaign the following golden rule of thumb applies: The posters have to effectively communicate precise messages to mobilise the political clientele. Improved Ballots OVERALL CONDITIONS According to the regulations of the Independent Election Commission (IEC), the election campaign in Afghanistan started on June 23, 2010. A total of 2,556 candidates run for election for 249 seats of the House of the People (Wolesi Jirga), the lower chamber of Afghanistan s bicameral parliament. 406 of them are women, for whom according to the Afghan constitution 1/4 A high recognition value pays off immensely on the election day when the voters go to the polls. In fact, casting a ballot can turn out to be quite complicated. For example, the ballot for the province Kabul consists of 12 pages and encloses 664 candidates. Overall, the province has the lion s share with at least 33 seats in the parliament, including nine women s reserved seats. Kabul is directly followed by the Western province of Herat with 17 seats to be assigned. On
4 /afghanistan the ballot, a photograph of each candidate appears as well as his name, his symbol and the name of the political party one belongs to, if doing so. The candidate s symbol is a specific feature in Afghanistan: It was established to help the illiterate voters to identify the desired candidate on the ballot more easily. Although it was assumed that 17.5 million eligible voters exist during the presidential elections in 2009 which were clouded by manipulations, only 12.5 million ballots were printed for the parliamentary elections in 2010. Therefore, it can be stated that the army of three to four millions fake voters is actively fought. To limit electoral fraud, ballots with special watermarks and serial numbers were distributed to the 34 provinces as well as the Kuchi nomads. Hence, committing fraud has generally become more difficult. Nevertheless, deceit can not be excluded. Moreover, there is de facto no comprehensive international election observation. One of the huge shortcomings, says Hamidullah Noor Ebad, Directore of the National Centre for Policy Research (NCPR). According to his opinion, the elections will not be free and fair. Noor Ebad who has studied in Germany further points out that due to the current basic conditions in Afghanistan it can not be assumed that the turnout will be around 70 percent like in the German parliamentary elections in 2009. He rather expects a voter participation of 40 to 45 percent. Shukria Barakzai, Member of Parliament and a well-known Afghan journalist and famous feminist, generally agrees with his estimation. At most every second eligible voter will actually go to the polls. Mohammad Haroun Mir who heads the analysis organisation Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Studies in Kabul and also runs for election to the House of People assumes an even lower turnout. Although it is as good as certain that the voter participation will differ widely among the provinces, the average turnout will be less than 30 percent, estimates Mir who was a close confidant of the mujaheddin Ahmed Shah Masoud known as the Lion of Panjshir in the civil wartime. However, the parliamentarian Shin Karokhail is of a different opinion. The 48-year-old doctor is convinced that the parliamentary elections will be partly fair and that as a result of the election campaign the voter turnout will be high. Political Parties are Scarce Goods Political parties seem to play no decisive role in the second parliamentary election of Afghanistan s still-young democracy. Although a total of 84 political parties are registered with the Ministry of the Interior, they hardly make an appearance. Only 32 out of 2,556 candidates have their party affiliation printed on the ballot. This is a total of 1.2 percent which is alarmingly low. Merely in 13 provinces 1, party members run for election. On the other hand, in 21 provinces the politicians running for election state to be independent candidates. The motivation of a candidate to declare himself as independent is high. Firstly, this is due to the fact that as a consequence of the civil war along with the regime changes involved all traditional parties seem discredited in Afghanistan. Secondly, as an independent candidate one does not have to toe the party line. In fact, without a party membership strategic alliances which are typical for Afghanistan can be formed far more easily. These alliances are often short-lived and of pragmatic nature. The Pashtun parliamentarian Barakzai considers the political party weakness as the biggest obstacle of the last legislative period. Afghanistan needs a party democracy, is her credo. Barakzai knows what she speaks of, she was elected as a representative of the Afghan people in 2005. Democracy will not gain a foothold in Afghanistan without parties, explains Barakzai who enters the parliamentary elections with the symbol of a rose. Noor Ebad, having been a minister in the nineties and heading the NCPR since 2007, agrees with her: Without implementing laws more 1 Kabul, Wardak, Ghazni, Paktika, Badakshan, Baghlan, Samanghan, Balkh, Herat, Kandahar, Ghor, Bamyan and Daikundi.
5 /afghanistan strictly, the rule of law will never be established in Afghanistan and without political parties we will not be able to complete the democratisation process successfully. This opinion is shared by Kabir Ranjbar, Chairman of the Central Audit and Oversight of Implementation of the Law Committee of the parliament. Ranjbar, heading the Afghan Lawyers Association for some years, identifies the so-called Single Non Transferable Vote System (SNTV) as the root of all evil. 2 It marginalises the parties de facto, they do not play any role. A democracy without political parties is like a reservoir without water. Therefore, in the run-up to the parliamentary elections some people in Kabul already speak of a democratic stillbirth. Especially so, because quite a few parliamentarians will be focused merely on representing individual interests or on entering strategic alliances. Establishing successful political opposition or setting up a parliamentary fraction are thus prevented. Hence, in the coming legislative period the Afghan president will very likely have to face less resistance regarding the cabinetconfirmation as well as the legislative process than in the past due to an absent opposition, says Noor Ebad. According to rumours, Karzai strives for a third term as president, enabled by a constitutional amendment. In the run-up to the elections it becomes already more and more apparent that the democratic potential of the country has failed to live up to expectations and that Afghanistan increasingly seems to depart from being a party democracy. 2 The Single Non Transferable Vote System is an electoral system which is used for legislative elections only in Jordan, Afghanistan and in a few small and insular states. The members of parliament are elected directly, the number of seats is proportional to the population of the respective province. The party which wins the majority of votes does not necessarily win the majority of seats. This fact prevents the establishment of stable political parties. Election Campaign at the Risk of One s Life In many parts of the country, the security situation prevents a western-style election campaign let alone conducting elections. At the present time, the security situation in Afghanistan is instable to such an extent that quite a few candidates and election campaign teams take an above-average risk. 16 incidents have been reported so far, 3 candidates and 13 campaign workers were murdered, another 15 were injured. Some parliamentarians are visiting their constituencies at the risk of their lives. On September 7, 2010, the IEC announced that in 25 provinces 938 out of a total of 6.835 polling stations (14%) will remain closed for safety reasons. Further, the IEC proclaimed that in the province of Nangarhar due to the bad security situation 81 out of 458 polling stations (18%) cannot be opened for voting. Overall these general conditions have to be described as suboptimal. The German special envoy for the region, Ambassador Michael Steiner, announced recently that European standards cannot be maintained and that the elections would become difficult. FUTURE PROSPECTS After thirty conflict-riddled years it cannot be expected from the Afghan people to set up a democracy that meets Western standards within a short period of time. On the other hand, one should not abstain from minimum requirements. Without political parties and legitimate elections a lasting democracy will not gain foothold in Afghanistan. Political parties are an essential and inherent part of democracy and perform important integration and leadership functions. They are responsible for the conveying of values and serve as a link between the civil society and the institutions of the democratic state. 3 In the best of cases, such a party democracy is characterized by low party-political 3 KAS Democracy Report 2007, http:///wf/de/33.11263/
6 /afghanistan fragmentation, high levels of party identification and party memberships as well as a high voter turnout in elections. Afghanistan is far away from this scenario, the country is rather in a state of a "defective democracy". Such a defective democracy shows signs of a representative democracy, and the ruling political elite has itself legitimized through elections. Nevertheless, serious defects do exist in the implementation of the rule of law, in horizontal and vertical control mechanisms and in the state s exercise of power in many areas. Moreover, the respect for human rights or even the rule of law cannot be guaranteed always. In short: A box does not always contain what the label says this is especially true when it comes to the Afghan democracy. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is a classical hybrid state that on the one hand shows characteristics of a democratic rule and on the other hand has adopted and maintains existing autocratic structures. This thesis is supported by the following indicators: The regained strength of warlords and drug lords, the increasing and widespread nepotism and cronyism, and the party system which has been castrated due to several laws. An old Afghan proverb says that a building will collapse sooner or later if the first stone is misplaced. This knowledge is not only upto-date, it also seems to apply more and more to the development of the Afghan democracy. In the interest of Afghanistan and the international community, the following points require an urgent need for action: Firstly, a new voter registration in Afghanistan appears to be appropriate, since in the last presidential elections it became evident that in Afghanistan manipulation is the most effective electoral assistant. This also applies for the parliamentary elections. Due to multiple same-name or fake voter registrations, the range of possibilities to deceive offers nearly limitless access to the ballot box. Numerous candidates without an actual electorate will become members of parliament with the help of these ghost votes. With a view to future elections, this development can only be stopped by a newly established, serious voter registration. Secondly, the political parties in Afghanistan should be strengthened. After the parliamentary elections the next window of opportunity will open to make up for failures and to learn from mistakes. For example, in the presidential elections in 2009 only 16% of the candidates were members of a political party. In the parliamentary elections the figure drops to 1.2%. Most of the candidates run for the election as independent. One option for Afghanistan would be to develop and later on pass a political party law similar to the one in Germany by which political parties are at least partly funded by the state. The amount allocated to each party should respectively be based on the extent to which they are rooted in the society. This can be determined by the voter turnout in elections, the number of members of the political party, the total amount of contributions of members as well as donations. The amount a party is granted by the state should be limited and not exceed the party s income from sources such as membership fees or donations. 4 Thirdly, medium- to long-term a change of the electoral system should be taken into consideration. The Single Non Transferable Vote System has proved a failure in the parliamentary elections in 2005 and is further responsible for the political party debacle of this year's election. The current electoral system does not provide for any representative element and therefore does not reflect the will of the electorate appropriately. The resulting weakness of political parties limits the participation of the Afghan people considerably and can be interpreted as a risk for the entire democratic development process. Moreover, the scheduled number of elections seems practically impossible to realize: For the next 25 years, more than 30 national and regional elections are planned in Afghanistan. No elections would be held merely in three years till 2035. Fazal Ahmad 4 Analogous to the German political party law the funds for the respective parties could be calculated as follows: 40 Afghani (70 Cent) for each valid vote casted for the party.
7 /afghanistan Manavi, the Chairman of the Independent Election Commission, will introduce the final results of the parliamentary elections on October 30, 2010. This will be the starting signal for a new legislative period with many chances and risks. The next four years will show whether the domestic political crop damage in Afghanistan will end up in a facade democracy that threatens to collapse or it is managed to correct failures in time. Survey 2010 YES NO 1 Are you satisfied with the democratic developments in Afghanistan? 58 42 2 Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the government? 35 65 3 Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the parliament? 30 70 4 In your opinion, do political parties play a role in Afghanistan? 37 63 5 Are you going to cast your vote in the parliamentary election planned 70 30 for 2010? 6 Do you perceive the ISAF as a guarantor for security in Afghanistan? 45 55 7 Do you think it is important to intensify the bilateral relations with the 79 21 Islamic Republic of Pakistan? 8 Altogether, are you satisfied with the security situation in Afghanistan? 31 69 9 Are you satisfied with the commitment of the international community in Afghanistan? 45 55 10 Should the government have talks with the Taliban? 74 26 11 Should the political power be shared with the Taliban? 61 39 12 Do you expect that the next elections will be transparent? 36 64