Workshop on Migration Temporary versus Permanent Migration Amparo González-Ferrer September, 16th, 2015 Brussels
Unclear concepts Unmesurable realities Impossible evidence-based policy Lack of common and measurable definitions Return migration Temporary migration Circular migration Impossibility of evidence-based migration policy Impossibility of proper assessment of progress made in relation to GAMM s goals
A. Circular Migration Difficulties apply to both EU and non-eu mobility Bad or none registration of country of destination (repeated vs. circular) No clear definition of length of stays betw. moves Short-term movements (<1 year) almost never registered Incidence of circular migration remains low: even for intra-eu mobility (Swe, Nor, It) Exception: Germans to Switz, stays< 1year Circulation concentrates in first years after arrival (selection?)
A.1. Reasons for low incidence of circulation For non-eu citizens: Lack of incentives for non-eu nationals to return in immigration legislation of most EU countries No guarantees of further right to entry and work after leaving (even for seasonal workers) Fear to lose rights previously cumulated/acquired For EU citizens: Maybe miss-measurement (short moves) Maybe a recent phenomenon
A.2. Incidence of Repeated/Circular Migration Period Definition All Emig/Immig Length of Stay Country of Destination Foreignborn Germans Sweden 1969-2009 Norway 1971-2011 Italy 2005-2013 Switz 2002-2007 3 or more crossing of Swedish border 1 year + 2 or + emigrations out of Norway 1 year + 2 or + emigrations out of Italy 1 year + 2 or more immigrations to Switz. 5 months + Not considered 1.1 % 6.1 % Not considered 13% 9% Not considered 34.000 9.000 Not considered 23% Source: International Workshop on Methodological Challenges for the Study of Return and Circular Migration- TEMPER Project Jan.2015
B. Temporary Migration Lack of a definition of temporary migration Non-seasonal temporary work is undefined, yet it accounts for a significant part of EU labour markets Most easily defined by what it is not: not high skilled, not seasonal, not permanent Lack of common definition damages the quality & comparability of Eurostat immigration statistics Duration of 1 st permit is not good indicator of temporary: from 6 months to 3 years Each country classifies figures according to its own legislation, not to Eurostat labels Seasonal includes different types of activities, workers and permits in each EU country, which are not even seasonal and/or temporary in some cases Non-seasonal & Non-high skilled with <1 year duration in Eurostat does not mean Temporary low-mid skilled Very few admission categories in most EU countries are truly temporary (they allow for transitions/routes to permanency) in Spain: only seasonal and short-term contracts In Italy: none
C. Skills as admission criterion In many countries, admission policies hardly distinguish according to migrants skills. Skills of occupations offered, or skills of migrants (huge missmatch waste of skills). The general approach to defining skills based on education has been overcome in all countries, and experience starts to be a new criterion. In some EU countries, like UK, most entries intend to be temporary and high-skilled but in practice they are not (irregularity) Temporariness declines with higher skills, which increases the feeling of countries of origin that EU policies, in practice, favour brain drain (against discourses)
Over-qualification in TEMPER EU countries by origin & sex Percentage of employed workers over-qualified (education above level required in their jobs) Source: EU-LFS 2008.
C.1. High-skilled migration policies Only UK and France have taken a decisive step in developing supply driven policy schemes, while Spain and Italy remains strictly attached to a demand-driven model The United Kingdom is the single most attractive TEMPER destination for the most educated migrants considering: the profile of migrants attracted And that it minimizes the disadvantage of more educated migrants in terms of risk of unemployment, temporality and over-qualification France lags rather behind the UK, somewhere close to Italy and Spain, in spite of older and much more sophisticated policies to attract talent.
Level of education of stock of immigrants, 2012
Numeracy Score of adult migrants, by destination & cohort of arrival Source: PIACC
D. Impacts of returnees on development Widely extended concern about brain drain (Workshop at ITC-ILO in Torino) among origin countries representatives However, TEMPER (and others) preliminary evidence suggests positive skills selection into return migration Moroccans from Spain and France Sub-Saharan Africans in France, It and Spain, Particularly high among those who came either as students or for study-related reasons But doubts on their successful economic reintegration and, thus, their full capacity to contribute to development of origin areas.
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