ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: WAR AND PEACE 4/16/03 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 8 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Thursday, April 17, 2003 Concern About Peacekeeping Grows, But More Also See a Benefit of the War A growing number of Americans express concern the United States will get bogged down in a drawn-out and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq. But more also see a long-term benefit to the war reducing the risk of terrorism at home. Nearly three-quarters, 73 percent, are now concerned about a difficult peacekeeping task ahead, up 11 points since the fall of Baghdad likely reflecting the civil unrest that s followed. Nearly a third are now very concerned, up from a quarter. Still, the public by 2-1 approves of the level of U.S. efforts to restore order thus far. The war retains its broad support 78 percent, with six in 10 strongly supporting it. And there s been a 10-point increase in the number of Americans who think that in the long term the war will reduce the risk of further terrorism in the United States rising from 48 percent before the fighting began to 58 percent now. Concerned About U.S. Getting Bogged Down In a Long and Difficult Peackeeping Role ABC News/Washington Post polls 73% 90% 80% 70% 62% 60% 50% 40% 9-Apr 16-Apr 30% 4/16 4/9 Change
Concerned the U.S. may get bogged down in a long and difficult peacekeeping role 73% 62 +11 4/16 3/17 Change Think the war will reduce the risk of further terrorism in the U.S. 58% 48 +10 Indeed three-quarters of Americans see the war with Iraq as part of the broader war against terrorism, and that s a critical factor in support for the conflict. Among people who say the war with Iraq is part of the war on terrorism, 90 percent support it. Among those who say it s separate from the war on terrorism, support dives to 42 percent. ELSEWHERE The appetite is not great for regime change elsewhere. Nearly nine in 10 Americans favor non-military approaches diplomatic or economic pressure to problems with Syria or North Korea. Just over four in 10 say they d support military action short of war; about a third say they d support war to remove these governments from power. Many more see North Korea as a serious threat than Syria, as befits Pyongyang s suspected nuclear weapons program. Nearly eight in 10 call North Korea a threat to the United States, and 55 percent call it a serious threat. By contrast 65 percent call Syria a threat, and 36 percent call it a serious one. The United States, China and North Korea plan talks in Beijing as early as next week. 90% 80% 70% 79% Threat Perception: North Korea, Syria ABC News/Washington Post poll Threat "Serious" threat 65% 60% 55% 50% 40% 36% 30% 20% 10% 0% North Korea Syria Syria North Korea Threat to the U.S. 65% 79
Serious threat 36 55 AID - In terms of U.S. priorities in Iraq, the public gives primacy to providing humanitarian aid 62 percent call this absolutely essential for the United States to accomplish. Next on the list, 51 percent call it essential to restore civil order; 47 percent, to help establish a new government, and to locate chemical or biological weapons. Lower priorities in the public s view are capturing or killing Saddam Hussein (41 percent call it essential) and rebuilding Iraq s infrastructure (34 percent). Essential for the U.S. to do Provide humanitarian aid 62% Restore civil order 51 Help establish new gov t 47 Find bio. or chem. weapons 47 Capture/kill Saddam 41 Rebuild infrastructure 34 U.N. In contrast to the Bush Administration s apparent desire to control the rebuilding of Iraq, substantial numbers of Americans would put the United Nations in charge. When it comes to helping establish a new government, the public by 55-39 percent prefers U.N. control. And in awarding contracts to companies for rebuilding Iraq s infrastructure, 51 percent would put the United Nations in command, 41 percent the United States. On a third task, maintaining civil order, 49 percent say the United Nations should be in control; 45 percent, the United States. There are sharp political divisions in these views. In each task, majorities of Republicans want the United States in charge, and majorities of Democrats would give control to the United Nations. It looks like a matter of trust: Preference for U.N. control peaks among those who disapprove, or only weakly approve, of Bush s job performance. BUSH and the WAR Bush, for his part, maintains a very high job approval rating, 74 percent; it had slipped to 59 percent in January. The chief source of Bush s strength has been his response to terrorism since Sept. 11, 2001, and, as noted, three-quarters of Americans see the war with Iraq as part of the broader war against terrorism. For a Republican president, Bush s approval rating is high among Democrats 61 percent but not strong. Twenty-six percent of Democrats approve strongly of his work in office, as do 46 percent of independents a number that soars to 86 percent of Republicans. Bush s job performance Reps. Inds. Dems. Approve 92% 71 61 Approve strongly 86 46 26
Support for the war, similarly, while still partisan, is somewhat less so than at times in the past. Nearly all Republicans (95 percent) support the war, as do three-quarters of independents and two-thirds of Democrats. But strong support, again, is disproportionately higher among Republicans. Other factors influence support for the war. For example, support peaks among people who think the war will decrease the risk of terrorism in the United States. And it declines among those who worry about a long and difficult peacekeeping role ahead. METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 16, 2003, among a random national sample of 504 adults. The results have a 4.5- point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: <http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/pollvault/pollvault.html> Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 Results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 4/16/03 74 52 22 23 14 9 3 4/9/03 77 58 19 20 14 6 4 4/3/03 71 54 16 25 19 7 4 3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/03 62 38 23 35 22 13 4 2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/03 64 42 21 34 20 14 3 2/1/03 62 41 21 34 22 13 4 1/28/03 62 43 19 36 23 13 2 1/27/03 59 39 21 37 22 15 4 1/20/03 59 36 23 38 22 16 2 12/15/02 66 37 28 32 20 12 2 11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 20 12 1 11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 20 12 1 11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 23 9 1 10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 16 13 4 10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 16 14 3 9/26/02 67 42 25 30 18 12 3 9/8/02 71 42 28 27 15 12 3 7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3 7/15/02 72 42 31 25 13 12 2 6/17/02 74 42 32 22 13 9 4 6/9/02 77 41 36 20 11 9 3 5/19/02 76 48 28 22 13 8 3 4/21/02 78 47 31 20 10 9 2 3/28/02 79 49 30 18 10 8 3 3/10/02 82 52 30 16 7 9 2 1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3 12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2
11/27/01 89 69 21 9 5 4 1 11/6/01 89 65 24 9 4 5 2 10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1 9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4 9/13/01 86 63 23 12 6 5 2 9/9/01 55 26 29 41 22 20 3 8/12/01 61 28 33 31 17 14 8 7/30/01 59 28 30 38 22 17 3 6/3/01 55 27 28 40 22 18 6 4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5 3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 2. Do you support or oppose the United States having gone to war with Iraq? Do you support/oppose it strongly or only somewhat? ---------Support--------- ----------Oppose--------- NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat No op. 4/16/03 78 61 17 20 13 7 2 4/9/03 80 63 17 17 12 6 3 4/6/03 77 57 20 16 10 7 7 4/3/03 73 58 15 24 16 8 4 3/27/03 73 58 16 24 16 8 3 3/23/03 72 55 17 26 16 10 2 3/20/03 72 53 19 26 18 8 2 3/17/03* 71 54 16 27 19 8 3 3/9/03 59 40 19 35 21 14 6 *3/17/03 and previous: Would you support or oppose the United States going to war with Iraq? 3. Would you say the United States is doing enough to restore civil order in Iraq, or do you think it should be doing more? Doing Should No enough do more opinion 4/16/03 65 31 4 4. How important is it for the United States to (READ ITEM) - would you say it s absolutely essential, very important but not essential, or less important than that? Absolutely Important/ Less No essential not essential important op. a. Capture or kill Saddam Hussein 41 43 14 2 b. Find biological or chemical weapons in Iraq 47 37 13 2 c. Restore civil order in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq 51 41 7 1 d. Provide humanitarian aid like food, water and medical supplies to Iraq 62 33 5 0 e. Rebuild the infrastructure in Iraq, like damaged roads, power plants and schools 34 43 22 1 f. Help establish a new government in Iraq 47 42 10 * 5. For each item I name, please tell me who you think should be in charge of that - the United States or the United Nations?
United United Both Neither No States Nations (vol.) (vol.) op. a. awarding contracts to companies for rebuilding the infrastructure in Iraq 41 51 3 3 2 b. helping establish a new government in Iraq 39 55 4 1 1 c. maintaining civil order in Iraq until a new government is established 45 49 4 1 1 6. Do you think of the war with Iraq as part of the war against terrorism, or as separate from the war against terrorism? Part Separate No opinion 4/16/03 77 22 1 7. In the long term, do you think having gone to war with Iraq will increase or decrease the risk of further terrorism in the United States? No difference No Increase Decrease (vol.) opinion 4/16/03 29 58 10 3 3/17/03* 39 48 6 6 * going to war 8. How do you feel about the possibility that the United States will get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq? Would you say you're very concerned about that, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all? -----Concerned------ ------Not concerned----- No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opin. 4/16/03 73 31 42 26 19 7 1 4/9/03 62 24 39 35 24 11 3 9. On another subject: For each country I name, please tell me whether you think it does or does not pose a threat to the United States. IF YES: Would you say it s a serious threat, or not serious? ---------Yes--------- No No NET Serious Not threat opinion a. Syria 65 36 29 31 4 b. North Korea 79 55 24 18 3 10. Syria and North Korea are among the countries the Bush administration has accused of developing weapons of mass destruction and supporting terrorists. The U.S. also says Syria may be sheltering some Iraqi officials who are wanted by the United States. When it comes to resolving its problems with Syria, would you support or oppose the United States: Support Oppose No opinion a. Using diplomatic or economic pressure 88 9 3 b. Using military force 45 51 4 c. Going to war to remove the Syrian government from power 34 60 6
11. How about when it comes to resolving its problems with North Korea? Would you support or oppose the United States: Support Oppose No opinion a. Using diplomatic or economic pressure 88 9 3 b. Using military force 43 53 4 c. Going to war to remove the North Korean government from power 35 61 4 ***END***