Inclusive Tourism for Sustainable Development in a Fast-Changing World Seán Cleary INVESTING IN TOURISM FOR AN INCLUSIVE FUTURE Petra, October 26 th, 2016
Message from UNWTO, EBRD and Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities of Kingdom of Jordan Inclusive and sustainable tourism development in Southern & Eastern Mediterranean can help enable advancement to benefit of all, including future generations. Generate new/better jobs, stimulate economy, and safeguard sensitive ecosystems services. But no trivial task: Needs sound investments in human and natural capital quality training and employment, particularly for youth and women, responsible use and efficient management of natural resources. Public-private cooperation needed for a competitive, inclusive and sustainable sector.
Sustainable development balancing the fulfillment of human needs with the protection of the natural environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but in the indefinite future Brundtland Commission: development that "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" Four dimensions: social, economic, environmental and institutional First three - key principles of sustainability; fourth - institutional policy & capacity Inclusiveness: including many different types of people and treating them all fairly and equally [Cambridge] What do we mean by inclusive tourism? Inputs (training, engagement MSMEs ) Participation (national/regional; accessible to all?) 3
The Tourism-Climate Nexus: Davos Process Source: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Tourism Sector, UNWTO 2009 - http://cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/docpdf/adaptationtoclimatechangeonthetourisms ector08-01-2009.pdf
Four categories of climate change impacts affecting tourism
Climate change impacts on tourist destinations Source: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Tourism Sector, UNWTO 2009 - http://cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/docpdf/adaptationtoclimatechangeonthetourisms ector08-01-2009.pdf
Relative adaptive capacity
Air connectivity
10 Internet connectivity
IMF Global Growth
Parmenides Foundation 12
IMF Assessment 2016 Global recovery weakened: Low commodity prices: Commodity exporters suffered. Moderate AE recovery - weak demand & low growth. U.S. Growth flat; $ strength. -area: Low investment, high unemployment, weak balance sheets, lower demand from EMs depressing growth. Japan: Growth/ inflation/private consumption weak. EM/DEs slowing further deep recessions in Brazil & Russia,, PRC rebalancing, and tighter financial conditions. China: Vision 2030 shift will slow growth, but make sustainable. India bright- rising real incomes and domestic demand. ASEAN-5 - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam - growing strongly; Mexico & Turkey moderately. DE s face weak external conditions. Risks to financial stability: Market volatility/risk aversion higher, tightening financial conditions. Rising vulnerabilities in EMs, nonperforming loans in AEs and weak systemic liquidity. Durable recovery elusive: Unemployment, high debt. low investment, long-term decline in productivity growth. Trade growth slowed. Geopolitical conflicts, terrorism, refugee flows, potential BREXIT, all weaken. Actions required : Reinforce monetary policy Use fiscal policy where possible - especially for infrastructure. Need structural reforms to boost productivity/ output. Strengthen financial sector: Fix private sector balance sheets. Complete EU Banking Union with common deposit guarantee scheme. Complete global regulatory reforms; transform shadow banking into stable source of finance, and strengthen resilience of market liquidity. Need joint decisive action: National policies must enable joint monetary, fiscal and structural actions
so, in the face of fragility, what does the future portend?
Secular Demographic and Economic Trends Population growth 7.3bn 9.4bn Accelerating urbanization 54% to 67%: an increase of 2.5 billion urban dwellers; 90% in Asia and Africa Aging - 60 +: 11.7% (of 7.2bn) 842.4 million in 2013; to 21.1% (of 9.3bn) 1 962.3 million in 2050 Digitization and innovation transformative and disruptive, but with unpredictable impacts
Global Trends to 2030 Continuation of geoeconomic trends Higher returns to capital; falling returns to labour Disruptive congruent technologies Return of geopolitics Weakening of representative democracy Jobless growth social dislocation Gaia in the Anthropocene Forced migration
Geo-economic trends continue the unwinding of an era
Shifting Geo-economics Global GDP 2000: US 31% Japan 14% EU 26% China 3.7% ASEAN 1.5% LAC 6.6% US $18tn <3%/a; PRC $13tn >6%/a Global GDP 2018 Globalization and World Order, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, May 2014 US 21.6% Japan 6% EU 20% China 15.3% ASEAN 3.3% LAC 8.3%
Source: Parag Khanna, Connectography, 2016
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund New Development Bank - BRICS
One Belt one Road
Higher returns to capital; falling returns to labour and rising inequality
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 % of national income Rising inequality Rising wealth/income 350 bottom 20% top 5% top 1% 500% World capital to income ratio 300 250 200 150 450% 400% 350% 100 300% 50 250% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 200% Rising leverage % Falling interest rates 10-year Yield 20-year Yield Wealth, Debt, Inequality and Low Interest Rates: Four big trends and some implications, Adair Turner, 26.03.2014 24
[In]equality and Social Pathology Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett (University of York) - The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better: high measures of income inequality strongly correlated with dangerous social pathology in all societies greater equality of income correlates with better social indicators across the range. Based on a global analysis, as well as across all 50 states in the USA Data cover physical and mental health, educational performance, child well-being, trust and community life and social mobility, teenage births, obesity, drug abuse, violence and imprisonment Even the privileged in unequal societies suffer higher pathologies than their peers in more equal societies
Breakthroughs in disruptive congruent technologies reinforcing returns to capital
Economic landscape changing Composites, robotics, 3D and 4D-printing, driverless/electric cars, renewable energy, gene therapies, internet of things: Close to tipping point! Acceleration in CPU capabilities, big data and data analytics drive automation of repetitive actions - manual (assembly), or mental (accounting/audit, legal discovery/precedent search; medicine Disruptive technology breakthroughs in energy, agriculture, communications, health, - new unforeseen shifts in employment patterns and opportunities Concentration/acceleration of innovation - falling cost/rising investment in info-, bio-, nano and cognotech further enhance returns to capital (RoI/RoTechnology ownership) rather than labour
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/japanese-ai-writes-novelpasses-first-round-nationanl-literary-prize/
Barack Obama: Now Is the Greatest Time to Be Alive Wired, Final Frontiers October12, 2016 one reason why I m so optimistic about the future: the constant churn of scientific progress. Think about the changes we ve seen just during my presidency. When I came into office, I broke new ground by pecking away at a Black- Berry. Today I read my briefings on an ipad and explore national parks through a virtual-reality headset. Who knows what kind of changes are in store for our next president and the ones who follow?
Political systems transforming Weakening of paradigm of representative democracy Reversion [in some areas] to more-primitive identities Onset of post-westphalian order Rise in migratory flows
past the peak of representative democracy? Social media empowered millennials - 76% own smartphone; most online >6 hours/day but 52% say their country s political system doesn t represent their values/beliefs: >60% in Europe and LatAm, 53% in USA, 44% in Asia, 41% in the ME/Africa. Family (85%), school (61%) and friends (56%) (technology 30%) have shaped their outlooks, government influenced only 8% Most important way to make a difference in the world : 42% access to [quality] education ; 41% protecting the environment (+24% promoting sustainable energy ; 39% eliminating poverty (+ 24% providing basic food/shelter to people ) 62% believe can impact, as individuals, on local issues; only 45% believe possible through the political system. Very high percentages believe digital networking is effective in influencing outcomes; 40% believing they can have a global impact but Facebook and Twitter haven t built organizations or leaders
Bangkok, Rio, Kiev and Hong Kong
A democratic polity doesn t fall from the sky Democracy not just overthrow of an autocrat, or even popular elections: It Involves constitutional entrenchment of: fundamental human rights, including rights of assembly and political organisation; the rule of law and equality before the law the separation of powers; and free elections, usually based on adult suffrage Elected representatives exercise power subject to the law, under a constitution protecting the rights and freedoms of individuals and limiting the right of the majority to override minority interests Liberal democracy requires all parties to accept: legitimacy of the state and the political system the principle of sovereignty of the people equal rights to participate in society and the economy, and political competition Personal and economic freedoms associated with the middle class and a broad-based civil society, probably essential deferment of immediate gratification Free elections alone don t bring transition from autocracy to democracy. A wider shift in political culture and establishment and entrenchment of institutions of democratic government are needed.
Populism and anarchy
A privileged Anglo-Irishman Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. W,B. Yeats, The Second Coming, 1929
and an Italian neo-marxist La crisi consiste appunto nel fatto che il vecchio muore, e il nuovo non può nascere: in questo interregno si verificano i fenomeni morbosi piú svariati. The crisis arises from the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum many morbid symptoms appear. [Antonio Gramsci, writig from prison in 1930, Quaderni del carcere, Ondata di materialismo e crisi di autorità, vol. I, quaderno 3, p. 311]. I am a pessimist by dint of reason, but an optimist by force of will (Gramsci, 1929)
Gaia in the anthropocene Rising pressure on planetary boundaries Increasing incidence of extreme weather events
Urbanization accelerating: 2015: 55% of 7.3 bn in urban areas. 67% of 9.4bn by 2050 - increase of 2.5 bn. <90% of increase in Asia and Africa. By 2030-41 mega-cities >10 million inhabitants.
Solar energy could be top source of electricity by 2050, due to plummeting costs, International Energy Agency, October 6, 2014 China s scale enables solar PV breakthroughs solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could generate up to 16% of the world s electricity by 2050; while solar thermal electricity (STE) - from concentrating solar power plants - could provide a further 11%
Disruptive technology, capital and business models New CIT - big data, ubiquitous sensors, and mobile connectivity creating new economies of scope and scale due to massive cheap, granular, and actionable information Energy tech. integration: Across RE, EVs (PIGS* to SEALS**) smart grids, and storage - creating new performance standards and synergies Capital innovation: Sophisticated investors shifting capital flows and lowering cost of capital Disruptive business models: New business models in disruptive companies (e.g. Uber, Tesla, SolarCity, Nest, Crowley Carbon) creating value and fostering innovation Mobility as a System Corporate innovation: Google and Apple in mobility, Apple and Walmart in RE, and Cargill in shipping - are rattling incumbents. Cities and regions: leading in regulatory reform for climate mitigation; much innovation at Adapted from Rocky Mountain Institute, February 2015 smaller scales *PIGS: Personally-owned, independently used, gasoline, steel vehicles **SEALS: Shared, environmentally-aligned, autonomous, lightweight vehicles
The Challenge and Opportunity for Tourism Source: Connectography Parag Khanna, 2016 Tourism is fast-growing socio-economic sector. In 2015, international tourist arrivals were nearly 1.2 bn, with 1.8 bn expected by 2030 Now >10% of global GDP, 30% of global trade in services, and 9% of jobs - powerhouse capable of improving livelihoods everywhere also in this region But need three things: Socially inclusive: Investment in needed skills provide businesses with a larger & better workforce and offer economic opportunities to youth & women Economically inclusive: Smart backward & forward linkages can fully engage local MSMEs in tourism value chain Environmentally sustainable: Emerging best practices in energy and resource efficiency, climate resilience and building sustainability to ensure benefits in future
Tourism as a complex [adaptive] system Complex systems (Kastens et al., 2009): Many strongly interdependent variables, with many inputs contributing to observed outputs attribution of causality difficult Feedback loops, where change in a variable, results either in amplification or dampening of the change Chaotic behaviour: extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, fractal geometry, and self-organizing criticality Multiple (meta)stable states, where a small change in conditions may precipitate a major change in the system Non-Gaussian distribution of outputs Complex adaptive systems: dynamic systems able to evolve with changing environments - closely linked with other related systems, making up an ecosystem. Change is co-evolution of all related systems, not adaptation to a separate environment.
Societal harmony Necessary for society to survive Humanity depends on ecosystem for survival Essential for innovation, creativity and progress PERSONAL FREEDOM Balances vary, but recognised in Abrahamic faith traditions, Buddhism, the Bhagavad-Gita and other Mukhya Upanishads, the Tao Te ching, Confucian ren & li, and Aristotelian Golden Mean.