Voting and Elections Chapter 8
Who will guard the guardians? The idea of being qualified to vote raises problems Our answer to this question has changed a lot over time
Restrictions on Franchise Colonial times (1620-1780s) No women Few Catholics, Jews, native Americans, or free Black people i.e., some white, Protestant men could vote
Not all white, Protestant men could vote. Each colony had a property qualification Why?
Early Americans wanted to guarantee that voters were virtuous and independent Impact of Calvinism
That becomes the essence of the Protestant Ethic Worldly success is a sign of personal salvation
Revolutionary War (1776-1787) No taxation without representation! By 1830s, white male suffrage
Women Q: If all white men are qualified to vote, why not white women? A: Women s rights get tangled up in racial issues
What changed? Politics. The dominant party (Republicans) came to believe women voting would help them. - Prohibition
African-Americans By the 1880s, Black male suffrage in the North By 1900, the Jim Crow (segregation) system was entrenched in the South
In 1965, Congress passes the Voting Rights Act Federal government to supervise elections in the South Southern states forced to create majority-minority electoral districts
Young people (18-20 years old) 26 th Amendment (1971) lowers voting age Impact?
Given all of these struggles
In 2000, a majority of Americans chose NOT to vote Many blamed: Lazy young people Peace & prosperity Media effects
BUT: Voter turnout was up to 60.7% in 2004 2008 turnout was expected to be very, very high Obama/Palin effects?
Reality: 2008 turnout rate about 62% African-American turnout very high in the South 18-29 year old turnout ~ 51%
Moral: A lot of what people know about elections is wrong! Many ask, Why do so many people stay home on election day?
The better question to ask is: Why does anybody bother to vote in the first place?
Over 400 people are hit by lightning in the US every year
This guy has been hit by lightning 3 times!
In 2008, 131,257,328 votes were cast for President My vote was 1 out of the total. So was yours. One vote weighs 1 / 131,257,328 = 0.000000007618 % of the total 7 ten-millionths of 1%!
In 2008, SC cast 1,920,969 votes for Pres. My 1 made up 0.00000052057% of the total 5 millionths of 1%
The odds of 1 vote deciding an election are very, very, very small. People who say, My vote doesn t count have a bit of a point
There s also a flipside: For millions of people, just going out to vote can be a challenge
This is all to say something important: Millions of people see good reasons not to vote
Here s the point: Going out to vote produces benefits We can group those benefits into 2 categories:
Instrumental Benefit A vote is a means to an end It s support for a candidate, a party, an idea
BUT: A vote is one out of millions So, each vote has very little chance of affecting the election Therefore, the instrumental benefit of voting is very small!
Expressive Benefits Yet, millions of people vote Are they irrational? No. Many feel that it is important to vote Civic Duty Responsibility Want to have my say
Since the instrumental benefit of voting is always low: Most voters are motivated by expressive benefits But, not everyone responds to those psychological benefits
Civics classes and campaigns like VoD try to get young people to develop expressive benefits of voting. Do they work? Not much evidence they do, and they are expensive!
Costs of Voting The benefits of voting are, at best, mostly psychological The costs of voting are felt much more directly 2 types of cost:
Opportunity Cost Def: Time spent on one thing when you d rather do something else The time spent actually going out to cast a ballot Travel time, standing in line, lost income, etc.
Information Cost Def: Time spent figuring out who to vote for and why
An individual will vote when: P(B v ) C v 0 WTF?
Individual Factors Affecting Turnout 4 most relevant: 1. Age 2. Education 3. Region of the country 4. Race
Age Single best predictor of individual turnout Around age 30, likelihood of voting increases Until around age 80 Costs & benefits
Education Statistical effects of 1 year+ of college: Live about 8 years longer than high school dropouts Earn about $600,000 more over the course of one s life 20% more likely to vote
Why? Increasing education builds efficacy Def: A belief that one s choices / opinions matter
In terms of politics, efficacy takes 2 forms: Internal efficacy Increased ability to make sense of political info External efficacy Belief that one s choices have an impact
Southerners Residents of former Confederate states Residents of states bordering the South
Non-white African-Americans & Latinos Each about 6% less likely to vote than Caucasians & Asian-Americans
Problem All of these factors add up: Older, white, educated, northerner is almost 75% more likely to vote than a young, loweducation, non-white Southerner
Institutional Factors also affect turnout The way we do elections give people reasons not to vote
Voter registration US is the only democracy that makes citizens register to vote Most states require registration 30+ days before election
Solutions Motor-Voter Act (1993) Can register to vote anywhere a driver s license can be obtained Same-day registration 9 states let people register on election day 10-12% increase in turnout
Election Day is itself a problem Workday Limited hours Limited polling places Lots of different elections Federal, state, county, city, local, blah blah blah
Solutions: 1. Multiple days to vote 2. Election Day holiday 3. Mail-in or Internet voting 4. Compulsory Voting
The Question All these factors produce voters who: Are disproportionately older, white, and educated But is this something we should be concerned about?
Low Turnout is Bad 3 Arguments 1. Voters don t represent the nation as a whole.
2. Low turnout is caused by phony politics.
3. Nonvoters are more isolated, more selfish, more ignorant of the world around them.
Low Turnout, No Problem 1. Low turnout means voter satisfaction.
2. Increasing turnout means mobilizing the less educated & less interested.
3. Elections are a farce, anyway. Big money always wins.