The Local Elections Media Briefing Wednesday 18 th April
English Local Elections 2012 Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher The Elections Centre University of Plymouth
2011 Outcome 1 Con Lab LD 2007 National Equiv Vote 40 26 24 2011 forecast 35 38 17 2011 National Equiv Vote 38 37 16 Change -2 +11-8 Error in forecast 3 1 1
National equivalent vote 1979-2011 50 90 45 80 40 70 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0
2011 Outcome 2 Con Lab LD 2011 seat forecast -1,000 +1,300-400 2011 outcome +60 +850-800 Error in forecast 1060 450 400
Change in share 2007-11 and party competition *Three-party contests in both 2007 and 2011. N = 2,130 Con Lab LD Con first; Lab second Con first; LD second -5.2 9.4-3.6-2.7 8.3-7.6 Lab first; Con second Lab first; LD second -3.3 8.7-4.6 0.9 14.7-14.9 LD first; Con second LD first; Lab second 1.0 9.7-11.4 0.1 17.5-17.8
Seat change by region Con Lab LD North -70 +370-250 Midlands -70 +330-190 South +200 +180-410
National equivalent vote 1997-2011 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Con 43 Lab 24 LD 23
By-elections forecast 2012 40 34 (-9) 37 (+13) 30 20 18 (-5) 10 0 Con Lab LD
Councils up in 2012 (England) Con Lab LD Other NOC Met Boroughs 3 24 - - 9 Unitaries 6 6 1-5 Districts 43 8 6-17 Total 52 38 7-31
Seats up in 2012 (England) Con Lab LD Other Met Boroughs 245 312 204 54 Unitaries 166 108 73 20 Districts 717 159 250 75 Total 1128 579 527 149
Contestation Year Con Lab LD England 2012 97.1% 95.5% 70.5% 2008 95.6% 89.1% 78.9% 2004 86.6% 91.3% 72.1% Wales 2012 46.7% 72.5% 28.0% 2008 40.5% 69.0% 34.4% 2004 27.6% 73.9% 33.6% Source: 2012 figures Conservative Party
Six English councils to watch Birmingham (NOC) Stockport (NOC) Plymouth (Con) Southampton (Con) Cambridge (LD) Carlisle (NOC)
Birmingham (NOC) Labour need five gains to take overall control for the first time since 2002. A 3% swing from the Lib Dems in wards such as Aston, Bordesley Green, and Springfield will suffice. Labour gained all these and many more in 2011.
Stockport (NOC) The Lib Dems lost their overall majority for the first time since 2002 last year. This is the only remaining metropolitan borough where they continue to run the council. That status could be threatened by further losses now.
Plymouth (Con) Labour need four gains to take control directly from the Conservatives. A swing of up to 5% since 2008 in Moor View, Southway, St Budeaux and St Peter wards will do the trick. The party won all four last year.
Southampton (Con) Conservatives gained overall control in 2008. They failed to win either of the city s seats at the general election, and their council majority is now under threat too. They are vulnerable to the loss of 3 seats to Labour on a swing of 3% since 2008 in the Bargate, Coxford, and Redbridge wards.
Cambridge (LD) A symbolically important council (and constituency) for the Lib Dems. Labour won 3 of the wards the LDs are defending in last year s contest; if a seat in any additional wards slips away then so does their overall majority. There are no Conservative councillors in either Oxford nor Cambridge.
Carlisle (NOC) Finely balanced between Labour and the Conservatives. Labour needs 3 gains for control with a 2% swing from both Conservatives and Lib Dems since 2008. It comfortably won each of the key wards Belle Vue, Morton, and Yewdale- last year.
Benchmarking the outcomes Three 2-party battles: Lab/Lib Dem mainly in Mets. LD lost 150 seats there alone in 2011. Lab/Con the traditional contest. Con could lose up to 300 seats to Lab in England and nearly 100 in Wales Con/Lib Dem. Saved the Tories in 2011; potentially up to 100 Con gains this time too
Seat change (England and Wales) Labour 700 gains to justify poll/by-election lead BUT Scenario 1 continuing tactical unwind favouring Tories in south. Con -250; LD -350 Scenario 2 LD do better than last year in seats being defended. Con -350; LD -250
Mayoral referendums & voting
41 Mayoral referendums First in May 1998; Salford on January 2012 15 Yes; 26 No 21 conducted all-postal 10 held synchronous with general/local elections (six No; 4 Yes)
Referendum mandates 15 Yes vote Yes vote ranges 51-84% 26 No vote No vote ranges 53-77% or to put it another way Between 9-36% of electorate determined the outcome of the Yes decisions Between 5-47% of electorate determined the outcome of the No decisions.
Variability in mayoral referendum turnout 70 60 50 Turnout (%) 40 30 20 10 0 general election local election postal voting in-person voting
Mayoral voting First Second Conservative 6 15 Labour 15 14 LD 5 6 Independent 14 5 English Dem 1 - Respect - 1
SV does not mean majority winner Winner's share 17% 22% 15% Absolute maj Abs maj after 2nd count > 40% of first votes 40% or less 46%
Rank order of mayoral win share (% of first votes cast)
% eligible second votes cast for first two Mean 38.2% Max 68.3% Min 16.4%
Turnout & other elections
Scotland A Different Country? John Curtice Strathclyde University
Key Differences and Changes Proportional representation STV in 3 & 4 member wards Nearly all councils hung SNP still riding high and Labour low? 1 st local elections since 1995 not to take place on same day as another election Seats last fought 2007
Turnout at Recent Scottish Local Elections % valid vote 70 60 50 40 45.9 41.4 45.1 44.9 59.4 50.1 52.9 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1995 1999 2003 2007
Everyone gets to play! 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 No. of Councils in Administration 13 12 11 11 12 0 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Ind
Local and Holyrood 2007 35 30 25 28.1 32.2 27.9 32.9 20 15 10 15.616.6 12.7 16.2 10.9 5 4.9 2.1 0 Con Lab LD SNP Ind Others Local Holyrood
Split Ticket Voting % split ticket 35 30 25 25 26 29 20 15 10 5 0 1999 2003 2007
How Voters Used STV in 2007 70 60 57 60 50 40 41 30 20 22 10 0 1 preference 1 party Straight ticket Alphabetical
The Transfer Pattern in 2007 1 st Pref Con Lab LD SNP Ind/Other None Con (%) - 15 27 11 15 32 Lab (%) 5-22 15 10 46 LD (%) 6 19-23 19 31 SNP (%) 4 21 21-17 37
Recent Holyrood Vote Intentions 60 50 40 30 32 23 29 36 44 49 50 40 20 10 13 13 14 12 7 10 4 8 0 Con Lab LD SNP YouGov - Jan MORI Panelbase YouGov - Feb
Implied Change since 2007 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-4 17 16 11 4 0 Con Lab LD SNP -3-3 -4-5 -6-8 -9-9 7 YouGov - Jan MORI Panelbase YouGov - Feb -15-12
The By-Election Record 15 10 Mean change in % vote since 2007 12.1 5 0 1 3.8 Con Lab LD SNP -5-10 -8.8
Ones to Watch? - 1 SNP Might Gain Dundee Midlothian Perth Angus? Lab at Risk Glasgow North Lanarks?
Ones to Watch? 2 Lib Dem Woes? Edinburgh Aberdeenshire Aberdeen Fife Erosion of Independents? Highland Plenty of post-polling day bargaining!
The Local Election in Wales Richard Wyn Jones Wales Governance Centre Cardiff University wynjonesr@cf.ac.uk 07734 679 421
The Local Elections in Wales: Presentation The 2008 results and subsequent developments Wales 2012: The British perspective Wales 2012: The Welsh perspective The runners and riders The ones to watch and some predictions
General: Local Government in Wales Local elections in Wales still (so far?) First Past the Post Independents still very important in rural Wales (but for how long?) 9 councils with over 60 councillors (cf. NAW) Elections to be held in 21 out of the 22 Welsh unitary authorities The exception is Ynys Môn/Anglesey where elections have been delayed for a year as the authority continues under special measures While Ynys Môn has specific problems, island s plight illustrative of deep structural problems that bedevil Welsh local government deriving from botched reorganisation of the early 1990s (current boundaries in effect since 1996). Unfortunately (for those of us who hail from the island), cross-party consensus across Welsh politics on two points: 1. present structure of Welsh local government is dysfunctional; 2. but reorganisation too expensive/politically difficult. Hence (predictably unsuccessful) attempts to encourage cooperation
The 2008 results The 2008 elections awful for Labour (lost overall control of Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Flintshire, Merthyr, Newport and Torfaen; disastrous night in Cardiff (3 rd ), etc. Good for the Tories and WelshLDs; decent for Plaid (but NB Gwynedd) 2008 Result (net loss/gain) Labour 342 (-124) Plaid 205 (+41) Conservatives 172 (+64) LDs 162 (+20) Independents/Others 373 (+11)
Electoral Politics in Wales since 2008 The story since then may be summarised as follows: Labour s loss in the UK general election provided a big boost to the electoral fortunes of Welsh Labour The Tories have been doing relatively well N.B. 2009 triumph! Coming 2 nd for first time in the 2011 Assembly election Joining the UK coalition government has been bad news for the Welsh LDs perilously close to annihilation in 2011. Despite a reasonably successful period in Government from 2007-11 Plaid s electoral performance poor
Wales: 2010 Westminster election and 2011 Assembly Election (const. only) % (net loss/gain from previous equivalent) 2010 WESTMINSTER 2011 NAW Labour 36.2 (-6.5) 42.3 (+10.1) Conservatives 26.1 (+4.7) 25 (+2.6) Plaid 11.3 (-1.3) 19.3 (-3.1) WelshLDs 20.1 (+1.7) 10.6 (-4.2) Others 6.2 2.8 (-5.4)
Wales 2012: The British perspective The main focus will be the performance of the Liberal Democrats. Cardiff is the party s biggest single defence of the night across the UK; Swansea the second. WelshLDs in power in Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham. Cardiff is very much the jewel in the crown and, as underlined by the hammer blow of losing the Welsh LD bastion of Cardiff Central to Labour in the Assembly election, is clearly vulnerable. More generally, Wales may (yet again) provide Labour with their one, genuine good news story of this round of elections.
Wales 2012: The Welsh perspective Two of the Welsh parties have new leaders. Inevitably, the performance of their respective parties will be interpreted as a reflection on their performance. Andrew R.T. Davies replaced Nick Bourne as Conservative Assembly group leader in the NAW. Despite initial status as strong favourite, he won only the most grudging of mandates from Conservative members. Already strong rumblings about his subsequent performance. Disappointing Tory result particularly in his home area of the Vale of Glamorgan (Con gain 2008) may well precipitate putsch. Leanne Wood recently won a decisive victory in the contest to replace Ieuan Wyn Jones as Plaid leader. Even if it is very early days, a poor performance especially in the Labour heartlands that the party hopes to target via Wood might well tarnish that victory. Note, no matter how poorly the WelshLDs perform there is no question of Kirsty Williams position being up for discussion.
The runners and riders The political unit at the BBC in Cardiff estimate the following numbers of candidates (and bear in mind that only 21 of the LAs will hold elections) Affiliated candidates 2012 (2008 in brackets) Labour 887 (876) Conservatives 571 (514) Plaid 558 (517) WelshLDs 341 (436) Others 651 (600) WelshLDs some 25% down on 2008: retreating to their core areas
Ones to watch Some individual contests worth bearing in mind are: Cardiff: Labour hope to claim the scalp of current LibDem Council Leader Rodney Berman; Plaid may well be in a position to threaten the re-election of controversial former Labour leader Russell Goodway. Bedwas: Former Labour Secretary of State Ron Davies will be seeking re-election as a Plaid councillor. Will Labour be damaged by negative publicity that tends to surround Rhondda Cynon Taf? Will Conservatives be damaged by the latest expenses story around Alun Cairns MP (Vale of Glamorgan)?
Predictions There seem to be two certainties: Labour will perform better than they did in 2008 and the WelshLDs are in for a difficult night. Suspect difficult night also for Plaid. Conservatives in for a good night? Labour: Anything less than 450 disappointing Expect to regain all the councils lost in 2008. The big question: how far up the beach can they push the boat? Plaid: To come back at around 200 would constitute a very good night. 180 more likely? Big question: can they continue with 2008 progress outside traditional heartlands? Will again likely suffer by comparison with SNP. Conservatives: To maintain around 170 would constitute a good night. Could well lose ground though Vale of Glamorgan key battleground (keep an eye out as well for Conwy and Denbighshire where Tories currently constitute largest groups). Could end up second largest party across Wales repeating 2011 NAW election WelshLDs: Expectations are low (and NB expectation management ) and it is quite feasible that the party could drop to around 100. Certainly expect heavy losses in Swansea? Also Wrexham and other areas where organisation is weak or lacking in depth. Party will draw comfort if they manage to remain largest group in Cardiff to lose that status big blow to morale. NB Carwyn Jones predicting Labour will win majority in Cardiff!
Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru Wales Governance Centre www.cf.ac.uk/wgc wgc@cardiff.ac.uk