Challenges to the Welfare State:

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A Challenges to the Welfare State: Internal and External Dynamics for Change Edited by Henry Cavanna Director, Forum International des Sciences Humaines, Paris, France Edward Elgar Cheltenham, UK Northampton, MA, USA

List of figures List of tables List of contributors Introduction Acknowledgements ix x xi xii xiv 1 Challenges to the welfare state 1 Sir Samuel Brittan 1.1 Main challenges 1 1.2 Two kinds of claim 2 1.3 Minimum income guarantee 3 1.4 Relevance of globalization 4 2 The American welfare state: exceptional no longer? 7 Nathan Glazer 2.1 Federalism and its significance 9 2.2 Diversity, ethnicity, race 12 2.3 The voluntary and private sector 17 2.4 The present moment in the American welfare state 19 3 The waning of solidarity? Securing work and income and welfare statism at present 21 Hans Keman 3.1 Introduction: crisis and growth of welfare statism 21 3.2 Models of welfare statism 23 3.2.1 The logic of capitalism, industrialism and modernization 23 3.2.2 The impact of'objective conditions' on welfare statism 24 3.3 Politics, ideology and political movements 33 3.3.1 Does politics matter? 33 3.3.2 The impact of Christian democracy and social democracy 34 3.3.3 The impact of parties in government on welfare statism 37 3.4 Political institutions as crucial mechanisms for the welfare state? 39 3.4.1 Policy features and welfare statism 40 3.5 Rates of welfare statism and securing work and income 43

4 Political reconstruction of the European welfare states 49 Stein Kuhnle 4.1 Introduction 49 4.2 Status of European welfare states 50 4.3 Common European welfare challenges 54 4.4 Towards a European social security system? 58 4.5 Whither the Scandinavian (or Nordic) welfare model? 60 4.6 Reshaping welfare in different institutional contexts 63 4.6.1 United Kingdom: minimum security with targeted tampering at the margins 63 4.6.2 Germany: status maintenance with minor curtailments and consolidated expansion 64 4.6.3 Sweden: generous universal welfare model under heavy pressure 66 4.6.4 Norway: cautious fine-tuning of a sustainable model in an oil economy 68 4.6.5 Poland: in search of a new concept of social protection 69 4.7 The future European welfare state: (again) a model for the world? 71 5 Welfare state and welfare mix in a new labour market 78 Peter Scherer 5.1 Employment distribution 78 5.1.1 Adults 83 5.1.2 Youth 88 5.1.3 Older workers 90 5.2 Demand for labour 91 5.3 Household employment patterns 92 5.4 Social policy implications 96 6 The welfare state backlash and the tax revolt 98 Kenneth Newton 6.1 A tax revolt and welfare state backlash of the middle mass? 100 6.2 Government overload? 103 6.3 A legitimacy crisis? 106 6.4 A rational choice revolt? 107 6.5 A new political agenda? 108 6.6 Subtlety and sophistication: citizens are not fools 110 6.7 A tax revolt? Ill 6.8 The West European pattern 118 6.9 Conclusions 119 VI

1 Welfare reform in Southern Europe: institutional constraints and opportunities 123 Maurizio Ferrera 7.1 A distinct model? Some common traits of the South European welfare states 123 7.2 The institutional predicament of the Southern model 127 7.3 Reform or disintegration? The uncertain prospects of the Italian welfare state 130 8 From the Communist welfare state to social benefits of market economy: the determinants of the transition process in Central Europe 138 Vladimir Rys 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 Summary Introduction Early orientations in social reform The lessons of experience Dismantling the Communist welfare state - or how to walk on a tightrope The rise and fall of unemployment benefits Social reform and political ideology 8.7.1 The Czech Republic 8.7.2 Hungary 8.7.3 Poland Conclusions 138 138 140 141 142 143 146 146 149 150 151 9 The crisis of the welfare state: a game-theoretic interpretation 154 Egon Matzner 9.1 The guiding idea: during epochs of change, fiscal crises manifest themselves also as crises in applying old methods 154 9.2 Origins of the state and of state activity 155 9.2.1 External sources 155 9.2.2 Internal sources 157 9.2.3 Symbiosis of external and internal sources 157 9.2.4 Reasons for the growth of public expenditures - ways out of crisis 158 9.3 The new socio-economic context 160 9.3.1 From systems rivalry to competition among locations and national currencies 161 vu

9.3.2 International monetary order and deregulation of capital markets 162 9.3.3 Surplus of private savings, public debt and the erosion of the multiplier effect of public expenditures 163 9.3.4 The creation of the European economic and monetary union 165 9.3.5 The revival of laissez-faire ideology 166 9.3.6 The new socio-economic context 167 9.4 On the prospering and decline of institutions 168 9.4.1 Which institutions survive? 168 9.4.2 An (unconventional) attempt in the light of game theory 170 9.4.3 Inter-war period. World War II. Cold war. The end of the post-war period? 173 9.5 The predominance of monetary stability targets as main danger to the welfare state 176 9.6 The staging of positive-sum games as primary objective in politics 178 9.6.1 Assigning new tasks to politics, economics and society 178 9.6.2 A new agenda of public tasks 178 9.6.3 Five difficulties in introducing the co-operation mode 179 9.6.4 Contours of a socio-economic context encouraging co-operation 182 9.6.5 How to continue from here? 183 10 Doing good without the idea of Good: on policies for 'the fight against poverty' 188 Philippe Beneton Index 195 vm