Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, 23, tact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick MISSOURI: NECK AND NECK FOR PREZ; BLUNT HAS SMALL SENATE LEAD ocrat leads in governor s race West Long Branch, NJ The presidential race in Missouri couldn t be closer according to the Monmouth University Poll, with Donald Trump holding an insignificant single point lead over Hillary Clinton. ublican senator Roy Blunt has a small 5 point edge in his bid for a second term, while ocrat Chris Koster holds a sizable 11 point lead in the race to succeed Jay Nixon as governor. Among Missouri voters likely to cast ballots in vember s presidential election, 4 currently support Trump and 4 back Clinton. Another intend to vote for ertarian Gary Johnson, name another candidate, and are undecided. Trump does as well as Clinton in getting the backing of fellow partisans, with 8 of ublicans supporting their party s nominee and 8 of ocrats backing their standard bearer. ependents are divided at 4 for Trump and 3 for Clinton, with 1 supporting Johnson. Clinton leads by 65 points among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (7 to 1), while Trump leads by 13 points among white voters (5 to 3). In 2012, Barack Obama won non-white voters by 73 points, while Mitt Romney took the white vote by a commanding 33 points. Trump is currently doing better among white women (5 to 3) in Missouri than he is among white men (4 to 3). This gender gap is the opposite of what the Monmouth University Poll has been finding among white voters in other states as well as its national polls where Trump has been doing better with men than women. The race was a squeaker the last time there was a vacancy in the Oval Office. In that respect, this year looks more like 2008 than 2012 when Romney won the state by ten points, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. 1
Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/23/16 Missouri voters give nearly identical ratings to the two major party nominees. Just 3 have a favorable opinion of Trump and 5 have an unfavorable view, while 3 have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 5 have an unfavorable view. The findings are similar when it comes to looking out for the little guy. Only 3 say Trump would do a good job at this while 5 say he would do a bad job. Likewise, just 4 say Clinton would do a good job looking out for the little guy while 5 say she would do a bad job. Clinton does have an advantage, though, when it comes to handling race relations an issue that is particularly salient in Missouri after the events in Ferguson two years ago. A majority of voters (5) say Clinton would do a better job at this compared to 3 who prefer Trump on the issue of race relations. Both white (4 to 3) and non-white (8 to 1) voters prefer Clinton over Trump to handle race relations in the country. Turning to the U.S. Senate race, GOP incumbent Roy Blunt holds a 4 to 4 lead over his ocratic challenger, Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. Another say they will vote for ertarian Jonathan Dine and are undecided. Blunt has the support of 8 of ublicans while Kander has the backing of 8 of ocrats. ependents prefer Blunt by 4 to 3. Blunt earns a positive job rating from Missouri voters 4 approve and 3 disapprove, with 1-in-5 (2) having no opinion of his performance. Voters are more divided, though, on their personal opinion of Blunt 3 have a favorable view and 2 hold an unfavorable opinion, with 4 who have no real opinion of him. The challenger Kander is less well-known, earning a 2 favorable and unfavorable personal rating, with 6 who have formed no opinion of him. Blunt is one of the first-termers that ocrats have targeted in their bid to retake the Senate. While he currently holds a small lead, ublican weakness elsewhere on the ballot provides the challenger with an opening, said Murray. In the contest just below U.S. Senate on the ballot, ocratic Attorney General Chris Koster holds a significant 5 to 4 lead over political newcomer and former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens in the race for governor. Another say they will vote for ertarian Cisse Spragins and are undecided. Koster has stronger support among ocratic voters (9) than Greitens does among ublicans (8). The GOP nominee won a sharply contested primary with little more than one-third of the vote. ependents currently prefer Koster by a sizable 4 to 3. Even though Koster holds statewide office, neither candidate is a household name. Just over a third (3) have a favorable opinion of Koster and 1 have an unfavorable view, with 4 expressing no opinion of him. For Greitens, 3 have a favorable opinion and 1 have an unfavorable view, with 5 having no opinion of him personally. 2
Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/23/16 Koster has an edge over Greitens (3 to 2) when it comes to handling the hot-button issue of race relations in Missouri, although trust neither candidate to deal with this issue and 3 are not sure which candidate would do a better job. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from 19 to 22 with 401 Missouri residents likely to vote in the vember election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the ublican, Hillary Clinton the ocrat, or Gary Johnson the ertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Donald Trump 4 Hillary Clinton 4 Gary Johnson (VOL) candidate (VOL) Undecided 3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Roy Blunt the ublican, Jason Kander the ocrat, or Jonathan Dine the ertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Roy Blunt or Jason Kander?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Roy Blunt 4 Jason Kander 4 Jonathan Dine (VOL) Undecided 4. If the election for governor was today, would you vote for Eric Greitens the ublican, Chris Koster the ocrat, or Cisse Spragins the ertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Eric Greitens or Chris Koster?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Eric Greitens 4 Chris Koster 5 Cisse Spragins (VOL) candidate < (VOL) Undecided 3
Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/23/16 Regardless of who you may support for president [QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED] 5. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 5 opinion 1 6. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 5 opinion 1 [QUESTIONS 7 & 8 WERE ROTATED] 7. Do you think Donald Trump as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy? Good job 3 Bad job 5 (VOL) Don t know 8. Do you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy? Good job 4 Bad job 5 (VOL) Don t know 9. Who would do a better job handling race relations in the country Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Donald Trump 3 Hillary Clinton 5 (VOL) Neither (VOL) Don t know Turning to the Senate race [QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED] 10. Is your general impression of Roy Blunt favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 2 opinion 4 4
Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/23/16 11. Is your general impression of Jason Kander favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 2 Unfavorable opinion 6 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Roy Blunt is doing as U.S. senator? Approve 4 Disapprove 3 (VOL) opinion 2 Turning to the governor s race [QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED] 13. Is your general impression of Eric Greitens favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 1 opinion 5 14. Is your general impression of Chris Koster favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 1 opinion 4 15. Who would do a better job handling race relations in Missouri Eric Greitens or Chris Koster? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Eric Greitens 2 Chris Koster 3 (VOL) Neither (VOL) Don t know 3 5
Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/23/16 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from 19 to 22, with a random sample of 401 likely Missouri voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-orted 3 ublican 3 ependent 3 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female 2 18-34 2 35-49 3 50-64 2 65+ 8 White 1 Black Hispanic MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) LIKELY VOTER Total 401 4. SELF-REPORTED ublican 122 8. ependent 150 8. ocrat 122 8. IDEOLOGY servative 165 7. erate 146 8. eral 72 11. Male 192 7. Female 209 6. AGE 18-49 175 7. 50+ 226 6. Hispanic 333 5. 62 12. 241 6. 157 7. 150 8. 124 8. 86 10. ### 6
Monmouth University Poll -- MISSOURI -- 8/23/16 Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson [VOL] cand Undecided 4 4 8 4 3 1 1 8 7 2 1 5 8 1 4 3 1 4 4 4 4 1 Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson [VOL] cand Undecided 4 4 5 3 1 7 4 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 1 4 3 1 Q3. SEN VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Blunt Kander DIne Undecided 4 4 8 4 3 1 8 7 3 1 1 5 7 4 4 4 4 4 3 Q3. SEN VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Blunt Kander DIne Undecided 4 4 5 3 1 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 3 Page 1
Monmouth University Poll -- MISSOURI -- 8/23/16 Q4. GOV VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Greitens Koster Spragins [VOL] cand Undecided 4 5 8 3 4 9 6 2 2 6 8 4 5 4 4 3 5 Q4. GOV VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Greitens Koster Spragins [VOL] cand Undecided 4 5 4 4 1 7 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 6 3 5 2 1 3 2 2 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 2 5 8 3 6 8 5 5 5 opinion of him? opinion 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 5 7 4 6 5 5 5 opinion of him? opinion 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Page 2
Monmouth University Poll -- MISSOURI -- 8/23/16 Q6. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 2 7 3 7 3 3 2 Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 9 6 1 8 4 2 5 5 6 opinion of her? opinion 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Q6. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 2 6 3 3 3 2 2 Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 6 2 5 5 4 6 6 opinion of her? opinion 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Q7. Do you think Donald Trump Good job 3 7 3 6 2 3 3 as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job 5 1 5 9 2 6 9 5 5 little guy? (VOL) Dont know_refused 1 1 1 18-49 50+ Hispanic Q7. Do you think Donald Trump Good job 3 4 4 1 4 3 2 4 4 as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job 5 5 5 7 5 5 5 5 4 little guy? (VOL) Dont know_refused 1 Male Male Q8. Do you think Hillary Clinton Good job 4 3 7 1 5 6 3 4 as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job 5 8 5 1 8 4 2 5 4 little guy? (VOL) Dont know_refused 1 18-49 50+ Hispanic Q8. Do you think Hillary Clinton Good job 3 4 3 6 3 4 4 3 3 as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job 5 5 5 2 5 5 4 6 5 little guy? (VOL) Dont know_refused 1 1 1 Female Female Page 3
Monmouth University Poll -- MISSOURI -- 8/23/16 Q9. Who would do a better job handling race relations in the country, (Rotate) Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Donald Trump Hillary Clinton (VOL) Neither (VOL) Dont know_refused 3 5 6 1 1 3 5 8 5 2 2 6 9 1 Male Female 3 3 5 5 Q9. Who would do a better job handling race relations in the country, (Rotate) Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Donald Trump Hillary Clinton (VOL) Neither (VOL) Dont know_refused 18-49 50+ Hispanic 3 3 3 1 5 5 4 8 3 3 5 5 2 6 3 5 3 4 Q10. Is your general impression Favorable 3 5 3 1 5 2 1 3 3 2 of Roy Blunt favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 1 3 4 1 3 4 2 2 2 opinion of him? opinion 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 Q10. Is your general impression Favorable 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 of Roy Blunt favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 opinion of him? opinion 3 3 5 4 3 5 3 3 Q11. Is your general impression Favorable 2 1 2 4 1 3 5 3 2 2 of Jason Kander favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 1 1 opinion of him? opinion 6 7 6 4 7 6 3 5 6 6 Page 4
Monmouth University Poll -- MISSOURI -- 8/23/16 Q11. Is your general impression Favorable 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 of Jason Kander favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 1 1 opinion of him? opinion 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Roy Blunt is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove (VOL) Neither_ opinion_dont Know_Refused 4 3 2 6 1 1 4 4 1 2 5 2 6 4 1 1 4 6 2 1 1 Male Female 4 4 3 3 1 2 Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Roy Blunt is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove (VOL) Neither_ opinion_dont Know_Refused 18-49 50+ Hispanic 4 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 2 2 1 3 4 4 3 3 1 2 4 3 2 Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Roy Blunt is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove (VOL) Neither_ opinion_dont Know_Refused 4 3 1 4 3 1 Q13. Is your general impression Favorable 3 5 3 1 4 2 3 2 2 of Eric Greitens favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 opinion of him? opinion 5 4 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 Page 5
Monmouth University Poll -- MISSOURI -- 8/23/16 Q13. Is your general impression Favorable 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 of Eric Greitens favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 opinion of him? opinion 4 5 6 6 4 6 5 5 Q14. Is your general impression Favorable 3 1 3 5 2 4 4 3 3 2 of Chris Koster favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 opinion of him? opinion 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 Q14. Is your general impression Favorable 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 of Chris Koster favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 1 1 1 1 1 opinion of him? opinion 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 3 Q15. Who would do a better job handling race relations in Missouri, (Rotate) Eric Greitens or Chris Koster? Eric Greitens Chris Koster (VOL) Neither (VOL) Dont know_refused 2 3 3 5 1 3 2 3 3 6 2 4 2 1 4 6 3 3 2 Male Female 2 2 4 3 2 3 Q15. Who would do a better job handling race relations in Missouri, (Rotate) Eric Greitens or Chris Koster? Eric Greitens Chris Koster (VOL) Neither (VOL) Dont know_refused 18-49 50+ Hispanic 2 2 2 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Page 6