Food Security & Nutrition Working Group

Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region Agenda February 20, 2014 Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO 09:30-10:30 Presentation: Future Trends in Commercial Agriculture in East Africa Monsanto 10:30-11:30 Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, JRC, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP

January Presentation Background: FSNWG 2014/15 Whose Resilience? Appreciate diversity where there once was homogeneity seeing diverse conditions, opportunities, problems and aspirations: urban-rural, adultyouth, subsistence commercial and where the legacy of tradition remains Solutions supporting and responding to diverse developmental pathways Not just problem analysis Can we invest in solutions to better manage times of crisis? Presentation: Future Trends in Commercial Agriculture in East Africa and stories of those doing business as part of that trend Elizabeth Mranda, Monsanto elizabeth.mranda@monsanto.com The reason people are doing agriculture is changing, in the same way who is farming is also changing. There are enormous opportunities and an important role in the short and long term to exploit these opportunities. Equally, evolving rural conditions, communication, infrastructure and markets enhance these opportunities.

Current Conditions: Regional Highlights Most of the region continues with stable or improving seasonal conditions while large proportions of CAR and South Sudan are in crisis or emergency

Current Conditions Regional Highlights Kenya KFSG FEWSNET FAO Generally stable now but likely to worsen if the long rains onset delays Grain availability and prices following seasonal norms livestock prices also following seasonal norms (decreasing post-short rains) Acute malnutrition at seasonal norms Seasonal deterioration Above-normal in Turkana and Wajir (IPC Phase 3) cause unclear. Assessment deployed to Turkana in early Feb Conflict in Marsabit/Moyale Very poor harvets Coast/Taita Taveta / Makueni/ Kitui

Current Conditions Regional Highlights Rwanda FAO WFP IPC Phase 1 Good season A harvest Rural markets functioning normally cereal and livestock prices seasonally favourable prices remain higher than last year (poor B season 2013) not expected to cause deterioration into IPC Phase 2 Rural labour available, government safety net programme for areas of high unemployment DRC refugees arriving going to UNHCR camps. Outlook relatively positive.

Current Conditions Regional Highlights Somalia FEWSNET FAO Most of the country in IPC Phase 2 Near normal rains in late 2013, stable grain prices (imported), stable security conditions, labour opportunities and trade flows Good livestock body condition, good milk production/availability, increased restocking, good livestock export prices Insecurity relatively stable in South but remains a threat. Middle Juba and central and northeastern coastal areas classified Crisis (IPC 3) 603,000 people in IPC humanitarian phases with 60% being IDPs Numbers in Phase 3 & 4 are expected to increase in coming months as acute malnutrition and dry-season hardship peak

Current Conditions Regional Highlights South Sudan FEWSNET FAO ISS CEWARN An average to below-average harvest is expected, mainly due to disruptions caused by conflict. Causes of the conflict are embedded in political issues which are likely to prolong the crisis Trade from Uganda continues but at diminished levels due to decreased access into conflict zones. Trade with Sudan is slow/unofficial. As trade into conflict-affected areas has halted, prices are likely to rise significantly in the coming months. Food deficits is also expected in markets whose access is reduced due to conflict. Impacts of the crisis are likely to extend well past the end of the conflict. Currently, large parts of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with pockets of emergency (IPC Phase 4) in areas with no access. The remainder of the country is reports minimal or stressed (IPC 1 or 2) food security conditions, with some pockets of seasonal crisis (IPC 3).

Current Conditions Regional Highlights Sudan GTT FAO JRC Relatively good conditions nationally 2013/14 cereal harvest was 65-70% of the 5-year average Atypical food price increases Conflict in South Sudan and insecurity in Darfur and South Kordofan affecting trade routes prices in Nyala are highest in the country reduced labour opportunities Early start to lean period expected due to reduced household stocks and rising food prices On-going insecurity in Darfur and South Kordofan = decreased harvest, reduced trade, depleted households assets and restricted humanitarian assistance - South Kordofan (IPC Phase 3)

Current Conditions Regional Highlights Ethiopia FEWSNET Large parts of the country in IPC Phase 1 Several regions of typically chronic food insecurity now at IPC Phase 2 (pastoral and agropastoral areas) Meher harvest up 26% on the five-year average, esp. good in Amhara, Tigray, Oromia and SNNPR. Agricultural labour is available Slight reduction of food prices but prices still above 5-year average due to high underlying inflation

Hotspots Current Conditions: Hotspots & Watch HOTSPOTS CAR (Conflict, Displacement, Access) violence and displacement continues. A below average 2013/14 harvest. Poor prospects for the March-May planting season South Sudan (Conflict, Displacement) Conflict reducing in areas and political accommodation being sought but tensions remain high. High levels of displacement / refugees.

Current Conditions Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Country Trend Population in IPC Phase 3 & 4 Source Burundi 1,402,517 GTT Aug 13 CAR 929,313 GTT Nov 13 Djibouti 70,000 GTT Oct 12 DRC 6,700,000 GTT Dec 13 Ethiopia 2,400,000 (require food aid) GoE Mar 13 Kenya 0 KFFSG IPC Mar 13 Somalia 603,000 FSNAU Feb14 South Sudan 3,239,357 LAF Jan 14 Sudan 4,236,000 TWG Aug13 Uganda 392,000 FSSG Jun 13 Total 19,972,187 Table: FSNWG Slight decrease reported in Somalia. Seasonal increases anticipated through the dry season of 2014

Displacement Registered Refugees/Asylum Seekers & IDPs Country Refugees / Asylum Seekers IDPs Burundi 50,641 78,948 CAR 20,336 206,000 Djibouti 23,412 0 DRC 184,472 2,607,407 Eritrea 3,457 0 Ethiopia 409,017 0 Kenya 600,148 0 Rwanda 73,405 0 Somalia 11,270 1,122,559 South Sudan 223,687 401,433 Sudan 163,937 1,873,300 Tanzania 103,179 0 Uganda 215,857 0 TOTAL 2,082,818 6,289,647 Source: UNHCR Stable numbers from January 2014

Refugees Registered Refugees / Asylum seekers (31st Dec 2013)

Refugees South Sudan emergency (as of 7 th February)

Refugees South Sudan emergency Outflow Number of refugees crossing into Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda increased to more than 140,000 since the start of the crisis. IDPs While it is reported that the number of internally displaced has grown to 740,000, UNMISS reported a drop in the number of people seeking protection in its bases; As of 6 February, WFP reported reaching 227,000 displaced; Emergency Food Security Assessments (EFSA) are planned in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states. Security Generally calm but unpredictable, and tense; Humanitarian access, prepositioning and looting of food stocks are key operational concerns. Fundraising Joint UNHCR/WFP donor debrief held on 4 th of February.

Refugees CAR Population of concern (PoC) 833,000 IDPs and 17,865 refugees (of which 12,546 DRC) in CAR; 268,779 CAR refugees in Cameroon, Chad, DRC. Security Increased violence from 5 th December 2013 has resulted in increased displacement. The situation remains volatile. Food security Food and funding concerns to ensure continued food distribution to all PoC; Access constraints in the provinces outside Bangui because of insecurity. Joint mission The new elected president of transition, Ms. Catherine Samba-Panza, visited 3 IDP sites on 1 st of February together with IOM, OCHA, UNFPA, UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP.

Refugees Nutrition/Food security issues South Sudan (230,000 refugees total) LEVEL 3 Humanitarian System-Wide Emergency Declared General increase in acute malnutrition in Maban camps; Table: Under 5 MUAC screening results, Maban, January 2014 Might be related to increase in morbidity and disrupted food distribution system (e.g. no milling vouchers distributed) 8,600 refugees now moved to Ajoung Thok from Yida Prepositioning to Unity began, Upper Nile delayed. Time is running out. Measles vaccination campaign began on 10 th of January. Sudan WFP distributing food to new arrivals and food rations for 25,000 people have been prepositioned; In agreement with UNHCR and COR, WFP started full implementation of food vouchers since January for targeted refugee households in East Sudan.

Refugees Nutrition/Food security issues Uganda (68,081 since 15th December) 17 out of 222 (7.6%) of under five children screened in Arua between 20-26 January were found acutely malnourished. UNICEF is providing therapeutic feeding, but there is need for supplementary feeding also; Water is a major concern affecting food preparation in Adjumani; Joint nutrition survey with UNICEF in Adjumani; Measles confirmed in all three locations. Meningitis suspected. Ethiopia (42,366 since 15th December) Rate of new arrivals considerable reduced Additional land for new camps being negotiated Food has been prepositioned for efficient delivery and distribution Test run of two 25 MT trucks with soap for Upper Nile- currently stuck in Ethiopia. Food passage needs to be formally negotiated Mass measles campaign underway

Refugees Nutrition/Food security issues Kenya (16,690 since 15th December) 99 cases of measles identified. Mass vaccination underway; WFP provides supplementary nutritional products to all children under 2 at reception centres, as well as malnourished children under 5 and pregnant and breastfeeding women in camps; Registration using biometric data put in place during February and will contribute to efficient and accurate distributions; Rate of arrivals between 200-300/day; Negotiations underway for land for new camp. Djibouti JAM report should be presented to donors asap as shortfalls predict a pipeline break in March and refugees are entirely dependent on the food ration.

Nutrition Nutrition DRC: MoH Save SAM/GAM (SMART) Urban Kinshasa 3.7-6.1 / 0.3-1.8 Kasai Orientale 11-18 / 4.7 8 Katanga 6.6 / 0.8 Somalia: FSNAU 203,000 children <5 yrs are estimated to be acutely malnourished (approximately the same number as Gu 2013). 68% are in South-central 51,000 children under 5 suffering from severe acute malnutrition a slightly higher proportion (25 %) in Deyr 2013/4 compared to 20 % in Gu 2013 or 21% in Deyr 2012/13 Seasonal Crisis of Acute Malnutrition

Nutrition Nutrition Kenya: MoH UNICEF TURKANA: The overall nutrition situation in the county has slightly deteriorated, however the deterioration currently seems to be within normal season trends. There is a high likelihood of the situation deteriorating further and rapidly should the Long Rains seasonal performance be below average Seasonal Crisis of Acute Malnutrition

Climate Temperatures Land Surface Temp (LST) Anomalies: Dec 2013 SPI for Dec 2013 Jan. 2014 USGS/FEWS NET USGS/FEWS NET Hotter-than-Normal dry season with concerns for pastoral areas.

Climate Tropical Storm Fobane Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm, February 17-24, 2014 Fobane The current intensified rains associated with the quasi-stationary tropical storm, Fobane over the Mozambique channel. Rain beneficial in areas of concern and could potential mark an early/timely onset of the Belg rains in parts of Ethiopia.

Climate Vegetation USGS/FEWS NET Large areas of below average vegetation/crop conditions in response to the poor late 13 rainfall performance and Hotter-than-Normal dry season current rains may improve rangeland conditions and may trigger earlier than-normal crop planting in Belg and long-rains dependent areas

Climate Outlook Climatic Drivers: ENSO Neutral conditions through March May 2014. With increasing probabilities for El-Nino towards May June July period and over 50% probabilities towards the end of 2014. The March to May 2014 Gu/long rains in the eastern Horn of Africa in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are expected to be near normal to below normal in terms of total rainfall. The season is likely to start on time (depending on tropical cyclone activity?). The long rains in western Kenya/the first season rains in bimodal areas in Uganda/the Season B rains in Rwanda and Burundi, and the Belg rains in Ethiopia from February/March/April to May/June/July are expected to start at seasonally normal times and be near normal in terms of total rainfall. However, the Belg rains are likely to be below normal over the northeastern highlands in Ethiopia Abnormally high land surface temperatures, up to about one degree above normal, are likely between February and March in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, western Uganda, and central and northern Tanzania. SOURCE: FEWSNET

Prices Border Monitor points in Eastern Africa (as of December 2013)

Prices Commodities Exported COMMODITY QTY (MT) Maize 724,155 Rice 572,510 Bean 441,139 Sorghum 345,537 Sugar 276,670 Maize flour 232,566 Wheat flour 213,110 Sesame 166,740 Wheat 145,890 TOTAL 3,118,317 Maize, rice, beans and sorghum most widely traded and account for nearly 75% of recorded informal trade in the region

Prices - Origin of Exports Uganda is the main exporter, followed by Tanzania and Ethiopia. Good agroclimatic conditions, conducive trade policy regime and proximity to perennially deficit countries contribute to the high exports from Uganda.

Prices Summary & Conclusion 3.1 million mt staple food commodities traded informally in eastern Africa in 2013. Maize, rice, beans and sorghum accounted for more than two-thirds of this informal trade. Uganda was the largest exporter in 2013 (with 72 percent share of total exports), followed by Tanzania and Ethiopia. South Sudan was the largest importer (with 57 percent share of imports), followed by Kenya and Rwanda (15 and 11 percent, respectively). Re-exports of rice and wheat flour from Somalia into eastern Ethiopia and Kenya declined due to conflict-related restrictions and tighter enforcement of customs by Ethiopia and Kenya. Informal cross-border increased significantly in 2013, promoting movement of staple food from surplus to deficit countries and thereby contributed to mitigating food insecurity in the region

Outlook Outlook: February to April 2014 Stable seasonal deterioration Dryer than normal dry season Generally stable and seasonal price fluctuation Nutritional deterioration until April-June (seasonal spike in acute malnutrition) These outcomes are not expected to change current phase classifications (normal, seasonal variation) Gu/long rains/belg across most of East Africa expected at normal times and near normal rain fall South Sudan Concern over up-coming planting season being interrupted t Concern where seasonal migration interrupted CAR Current assumptions of unseasonal hardship during dry season Concern over lack of seeds for up-coming planting season Seasonally stable for most of the region. Crisis in conflict affected areas

Upcoming Events Next FSNWG Meeting: ISS, Nairobi Thursday, March 20, 2014 Climate Climate Outlook Forum Feb 26-28 Early Warning Systems KFSM - Short-rains Report Feb 27 IPC Level II (Francophone) March 3-5 Response Analysis Tanzania Feb 10-13 Burundi Mar? TBC Nutrition Integrating Nutrition & Food Security Feb 25 27 Integrating Nut & FS (ToT) Feb 24 Mar 1 Livestock/Pastoral Nairobi, Kenya Feb 25 UNISDR Africa Regional Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction May 5-8

AOB Get Involved Food Security Briefs March Save the Children April WFP May OXFAM Response Options Working group Begin work in March Technology & Innovation of FSNWG members work Brief (2 to 3 min) each month of how FSNWG members are innovating with technology to improve their work 10 slots for 2014! Contact co-chairs