FIVE KEY TRENDS STRUCTURING L.A. S FUTURE AND WHY 2GEN MAKES SENSE 05/29/2015 MANUEL PASTOR @Prof_MPastor FUTURE-CASTING LOS ANGELES 1. 2. 3. 4. Slowing Demographic Change at Macro-level The Action: Micro-level Changes in Demography Low-wage Work and Income Inequality Workforce Not Ready For Jobs of Future 1
Changing Demographics California, 1980 2040 100% 90% 80% 5% 9% 19% 26% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 11% 13% 14% 14% 14% Other Native American 70% 60% 8% 7% 32% 38% 41% 43% 45% Asian/Pacific Islander 50% 6% Latino 40% 30% 20% 67% 57% 47% 6% 40% 6% 5% 5% 37% 34% 32% Black White 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2
Changing Demographics Los Angeles County, 1980 2040 100% 90% 6% 10% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 12% 14% 14% 14% 14% Other 80% 70% 28% 37% Asian/Pacific Islander 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 12% 53% 11% 41% 45% 9% 31% 48% 51% 54% 56% 8% 8% 8% 7% 28% 25% 22% 20% Latino Black White 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR 50% A Leveling Off: Immigrant Share of Total Population California, Los Angeles, and the U.S. Los Angeles 40% 30% California 20% United States 10% 0% 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 3
THE LEGACY THAT REMAINS Undocumented residents are: 1 million residents; 10% of the county, 12% of adults, and 15% of our workforce; and 30% of the construction industry, and nearly 20% of industries such as personal services, retail trade, and manufacturing UNDOCUMENTED ANGELENOS..are a settled population; Nearly half of all undocumented Angelenos have been here more than 10 years, and Nearly 1 in 8 undocumented heads of household are homeowners. Roughly 1 in 5 children have at least one undocumented parent 4
5
6
YOUTH POPULATION, SOUTH LA 200,000 Black Latino 173,183 177,618 150,000 140,399 133,117 100,000 102,445 83,171 63,625 58,236 50,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 7
8
Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full Time Workers 25 64 ($2010) U.S. and Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA Metro, 1980 2010* Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA United States 17% 19% 8% 7% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile 8% 6% 6% 10% 21% 22% 9
Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA Metro 1990 2006 2010 42% 38% 32% 32% 23% 24% 23% 26% 13% 16% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All L.A.: JOBS REQUIRING ONLY A HIGH SCHOOL DEGREE 10
L.A.: JOBS REQUIRING A B.A. OR BETTER FAMILIES OF THE FUTURE? U.S. PROFILE Living Arrangements for Children by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 100% 80% 3% 4% 16% 8% 3% 4% 2% 1% 3% 9% 26% 6% 4% 29% Other 60% 51% Father only 40% 77% 67% 87% 62% Mother only 20% 38% Two Parents 0% Non-Hispanic White Black Latino Asian Other 11
FUTURE-CASTING LOS ANGELES 5. When Good News Goes Bad: Displacement L.A. S AFFORDABILITY CRISIS Not only are low-wage jobs far away from affordable homes: wages are going down as rents are going up Source: California Housing Partnership Corporation. May 2014. How Los Angeles County s Housing Market is Failing to Meet the Needs of Low-Income Families. http://www.chpc.net/dnld/housing_need_la_final_060414.pdf 12
L.A. S AFFORDABILITY CRISIS and so L.A. County has the largest shortfall of affordable homes in California made worse by state and federal disinvestment in housing. Source: California Housing Partnership Corporation. May 2014. How Los Angeles County s Housing Market is Failing to Meet the Needs of Low-Income Families. http://www.chpc.net/dnld/housing_need_la_final_060414.pdf DAPA AND DACA: A 2GEN EXAMPLE DACA - Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Initiated 2012, but expanded 2014 Must have immigrated before 16 years of age Now no age caps; arrival date from 2007 to 2010 DAPA - Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) Both eligible for authorized work permits for three years Must be the parent of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident Have continuously lived in U.S. since Jan. 1, 2010 13
DACA VS. DACA: WHICH TARGETS KIDS? In the U.S.: There are nearly 300,000 immigrants who benefit from DACA expansion and threefourths are above the age of 30 On the other hand, there are approximately 3.7 million parents eligible for DAPA. In California: 1.1 million parents qualify for DAPA, and they have nearly 1.6 million minor children 93% of whom are U.S. citizens. 350,000 300,000 Parents that will be eligible under deferred action (DAPA) because of citizen and LPR children 365,000 Estimates (March 2015) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 59,000 33,000 31,000 101,000 126,000 22,000 75,000 62,000 25,000 14
Persons who will be eligible under expanded DACA (includes those currently eligible prior to executive action) 350,000 300,000 Estimates (March 2015) 250,000 200,000 150,000 152,000 100,000 50,000 23,000 14,000 12,000 45,000 50,000 9,000 32,000 23,000 7,000 Minor Children with Parents Eligible for DAPA 519,647 Estimates March 2015 191,404 141,836 76,990 53,012 50,792 30,576 100,193 86,316 Alameda/Contra Costa Fresno Kern Los Angeles Orange Riverside/San Bernardino Sacramento San Diego San Mateo/Santa Clara 15
WHY IT MATTERS FOR THE KIDS Negative effects measured in educational achievement, cognitive development and emotional stability for DAPA children Being the child of an undocumented parent is associated with heightened symptoms of anxiety and depression But the research also shows that these negative effects can be reversed MOVING FORWARD Bridge generations & geographies in your approach 16
FOR MORE... Visit http://dornsife.usc.edu/pere & http://csii.usc.edu @Prof_MPastor, @PERE_USC, @CSII_USC 17