New HampshireElection IssuesSurvey Wave3 December13,2007 December2007
New Hampshire Election Issues Survey Wave 3 ort prepared by Jeffrey Love and Gretchen Straw Data collected by Woelfel Research, Inc. Copyright by AARP, December 2007 AARP Knowledge Management 601 E Street, NW Washington, DC 20049 rinting with Permission
AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization that helps people 50+ have independence, choice and control in ways that are beneficial and affordable to them and society as a whole. AARP neither endorses candidates for public office nor makes political contributions. We produce AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; AARP Segunda Juventud, our bimonthly magazine in Spanish and English; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for 50+ educators; and our website, www.aarp.org. AARP Foundation is our affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information, contact Jeffrey Love at (202) 434-6279 or Gretchen Straw at (202) 434-6334. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007
New Hampshire Election Issues Survey AARP commissioned this election issues survey of 510 New Hampshire AARP members who report being a potential voter in the ocratic presidential primary election and 500 who report being a potential voter in the ublican presidential primary election 1. The telephone survey was conducted between November 27 and December 4, 2007 by Woelfel Research, Inc. The margin of error for potential voters in each primary is + 4.4 percent. Attentiveness to the Campaigns Key Findings As the New Hampshire primaries approach, almost 9 in 10 ublicans and ocrats are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely (89 ocratic; 89 ublican). About 5 in 10 ublicans and ocrats report they are following coverage very closely (46 vs. 49). Solidity of Candidate Preference When we first surveyed AARP members in July, substantial majorities said they were likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues. Candidate preference among both party s voters seems to have firmed up somewhat. The percentage of ublicans who are likely to change their candidate preference has declined by 12 percentage points, while the percentage of ocrats who say they are likely to change their candidate preference has declined by 13 percentage points. Among ublican members, the percentage who says they are very likely to change their candidate preference has declined by 18 percentage points. Likelihood of Changing Candidate Preference As Respondents Learn More About the Issues ublican (December '07) ublican (July '07) ocratic (December '07) ocratic (July '07) 23 21 24 41 46 40 50 40 0 20 40 60 80 100 Very Somewhat 1 Surveys were conducted with a random sample of members drawn from the AARP member database who were then screened on both likelihood of voting in the New Hampshire presidential primary election and with which party they plan to vote. To qualify, a member needed to be a registered voter who reported that he or she was absolutely certain, very likely, or possibly would vote in the presidential primary election and to identify with which party he/she planned to vote. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 1
Mood of the Country The New Hampshire AARP members responding to this survey differ in their assessment of whether the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track depending upon the presidential primary in which they plan to vote. While 87 of potential voters in the ocratic presidential primary election believe the country is on the wrong track, potential voters in the ublican primary are somewhat more divided (36 right direction vs. 51 wrong track). These percentages have not changed significantly since our July survey. Issue Landscape When asked in an open-ended question to identify the most important issue facing the country, survey respondents from both parties report that Iraq is the most important issue, followed by health care. Among likely voters in the ocratic presidential primary election, the economy/jobs is the third most often cited problem. Among likely voters in the ublican presidential primary election, economy and jobs, and immigration are tied with health care as the second most often cited problem. Compared to our July New Hampshire survey, the issue of Iraq has declined as most often cited important issue by 20 percentage points among ocrats and by 13 percentage points among ublicans. For ocrats, health care is more frequently mentioned now than in July. Among ublicans, economy and jobs is more frequently mentioned now than in July. Most Important Issue Facing the Country ublicans (Dec. '07) 12 12 12 20 ublicans (July '07) ocrats (Dec. '07) 5 8 13 7 2 26 33 35 Economy and Jobs Immigration Health care Iraq ocrats (July '07) 3 1 19 55 0 20 40 60 80 New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 2
Financial Security Although financial security does not emerge as a top issue facing the country, it is a critical voting issue. Over nine in ten New Hampshire AARP members responding to this survey who stated they are potential primary election voters report that issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection will be important to their votes. This issue is very important to 69 of potential voters in the ocratic primary and to 61 of potential voters in the ublican primary. These percentages have not changed significantly since our July survey. Importance of Financial Security Issues to Voting Decision 100 80 60 40 20 0 26 69 ocratic 30 61 ublican Somewhat Important Very Important How Well Candidates Address Financial Security Potential voters were asked to rate how well each candidate in their party s primary had addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes. In our July survey, large proportions of New Hampshire AARP members who are potential voters in the presidential primary election reported they do not know enough about their party s candidates stance on financial security to be able to rate them. Since then, there has been significant change in awareness of where some candidates stand on the financial security issues. Among ublicans candidates, Governor Huckabee, Senator McCain, resentative Paul, and former Governor Romney all received significant increases in the percentages of ublican primary voters who say they think these candidates have addressed the issue of financial security very or somewhat well. Smaller increases in awareness were noted for former Mayor Giuliani and former Senator Thompson. Among ocratic candidates, Senator Obama, Governor Richardson, former Senator Edwards, and Senator Clinton all received significant increases in the percentages of ocratic primary voters who say they think these candidates have addressed the issue of financial security very or somewhat well. Smaller increases in awareness were noted for Senator Dodd. Despite this increased awareness of some candidates position on financial security issues, majorities of ublican voters still do not know enough about 5 of the 8 ublican candidates to be able to rate them. Among ocratic voters, majorities voters still do not know enough about 4 of the 8 ocratic candidates to be able to rate them. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 3
Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Can Build Financial Security for Their Entire Lifetimes Very or Somewhat well Don t Know enough about candidate on this issue 2 July Dec July Dec ublican Candidates 3 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 39 47 51 31 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 7 28 83 54. Duncan Hunter 4 7 86 73 Sen. John McCain 37 56 52 29. Ron Paul 7 23 83 53 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 43 57 48 26. Tom Tancredo 5 9 87 69 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 13 20 80 54 ocratic Candidates 4 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 21 25 67 58 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 52 61 35 26 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 17 23 69 59 Former Sen. John Edwards 45 56 42 30 Former Sen. Mike Gravel 4 6 82 77. Dennis J. Kucinich 18 20 70 61 Sen. Barack Obama 40 56 48 30 Gov. Bill Richardson 25 36 63 49 Who Best Addresses Financial Security In our July survey, 80 of potential voters in the ublican presidential primary election said they did not know enough about which one candidate best addressed financial security issues. That percentage has dropped to 53 who say they do not know enough to judge. However, this decline does not translate into significantly higher ratings for most ublican candidates. Only former Governor Romney (18), Senator McCain (9), and former Mayor Giuliani (6) were named by at least five percent of survey respondents. Similarly, our July survey found nearly 7 in 10 potential voters in the ocratic presidential primary election (68) also felt that they did not know enough to make a judgment. This percentage has declined to 51 who do not know enough to judge ocratic candidates. Since July, only Senator Clinton has risen a statistically 2 Percent in this and subsequent questions refers to those who answered do not know enough to judge. In addition, a small percent fell into a general don t know or refused category. 3 Asked only of those who may vote in the ublican primary election. 4 Asked only of those who may vote in the ocratic primary election. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 4
significant amount as the candidate who best addressed financial security issues (12 to 18). Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Financial Security Over one-third of potential voters in the ublican presidential primary election (38) report not knowing enough about the candidates to identify which candidate they feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes. Similar to what we found in our July survey, only three candidates were named by over five percent as best able to deal with special interests and partisan gridlock to make progress in that area: Romney (22), McCain (16) and Giuliani (7). On the ocratic side, slightly more than one-third report they do not know enough about the candidates position on the issue to make a judgment (34). Four candidates were named by at least five percent or more of potential voters in the ocratic presidential primary election as best able to deal with special interests and partisan gridlock to make progress in the area: Clinton (24), Obama (11), and Edwards (11), and Richardson (7). Again, these findings are very similar to what we discovered in July. Health Care Large majorities of potential voters in the presidential primary report that health care will be important to their 2008 voting decision. The issue is especially salient among those planning to vote in the ocratic presidential primary where almost all report it as at least somewhat important (97) and 77 rate it as very important. ublicans also note that health care will be important to their voting decisions, with 4 in 10 reporting the issue will be very important. The salience of health care to voting decisions is largely the same as was seen in our July survey. Importance of Health Care Issues to Voting Decision 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 77 ocratic 39 43 ublican Somewhat Important Very Important New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 5
How Well Candidates Address Health Care Potential voters were asked to rate each candidate in their party s primary on how well he or she has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare. As was the case in ratings of the candidates positions on financial security, many potential presidential primary voters of both parties report that they are unable to rate the candidates positions on health care because they don t know enough about them. As was also the case in ratings of the candidates on financial security, a few candidates were rated significantly higher when compared to the July results as having addressed health care very or somewhat well. Among ublicans candidates, resentative Paul, Governor Huckabee, Senator McCain, and former Governor Romney all received significant increases in the percentages of ublican primary voters who say they think these candidates have addressed the issue of health care very or somewhat well. Smaller increases in awareness were noted for former Senator Thompson. Among ocratic candidates, Senator Obama, former Senator Edwards, and Governor Richardson all received significant increases in the percentages of ocratic primary voters who say they think these candidates have addressed the issue of health care very or somewhat well. Smaller increases in awareness were noted for Senator Clinton. Despite this increased awareness of some candidates position on health care issues, majorities of ublican voters still do not know enough about 4 of the 8 ublican candidates to be able to rate them. Among ocratic voters, majorities voters still do not know enough about 4 of the 8 ocratic candidates to be able to rate them. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 6
Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Have Access to Affordable, Quality Health Care Very or Somewhat well Don t Know enough about candidate on this issue July Dec July Dec ublican Candidates 5 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 50 50 33 26 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 12 31 76 51. Duncan Hunter 5 4 85 77 Sen. John McCain 44 56 34 23. Ron Paul 6 28 80 45 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 57 66 30 19. Tom Tancredo 6 7 83 74 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 15 19 72 51 ocratic Candidates 6 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 22 28 64 56 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 78 83 14 8 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 26 23 62 60 Former Sen. John Edwards 65 75 24 16 Former Sen. Mike Gravel 6 6 82 78. Dennis J. Kucinich 21 25 67 59 Sen. Barack Obama 57 72 30 16 Gov. Bill Richardson 36 45 53 42 Who Best Addresses Health Care Potential voters were asked which candidate has best addressed health care. Over fifty percent (54) of potential voters in the ublican presidential primary election reported not knowing enough about the candidate s positions on health care to make a judgment. While this is a decline from the 71 who could not judge in the July survey, only Romney (20) and McCain (5) were named by five percent or more as having best addressed health care. Only about one-quarter (28) of potential voters in the ocratic presidential primary election also report not knowing enough about the candidate s positions on health care to make a judgment. This has declined from 48 who could not judge in the July survey. However, there are significant increases in the percentages who name Senator Clinton (from 12 to 36), and former Senator Edwards (from 11 to 16) as the ocratic candidate who has best addressed health care. 5 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ublican primary election. 6 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ocratic primary election. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 7
Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Health Care One-third of potential voters in the ublican presidential primary election (33) and one-fifth of potential voters in the ocratic presidential primary election (22) report not knowing enough about the candidates to identify which candidate they feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on health care. Three ublicans are named by five percent or more - Romney (26), McCain (18), and Giuliani (7), while three ocrats are named - Clinton (33), Edwards (13), and Obama (14). Compared to our July survey, there is significant movement only in the percentages who consider ublicans Romney (from 20 to 26), and McCain (from 6 to 18) capable of breaking through partisan gridlock. Conclusions AARP members who state they are potential voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary election are following candidate coverage. While they are slightly more decided than they were in July, majorities have not settled on presidential preferences. In this survey, two domestic issues financial security and health care were explored in depth. Both of these issues are important to AARP members as they decide on their votes. It is clear that voters say they are better able to judge candidates on these issues, and many candidates are rated higher in December than in July as having addressed financial security and health care issues well. Given the salience AARP members give to financial security and health care issues, and the short time before the New Hampshire primary, it is more important than ever for candidates to address these important member, and national, concerns. New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 8
AARP/DWF Issues poll Samples: 510 AARP members likely democratic primary/caucus voters per state 500 AARP members likely republican primary/caucus voters per state 1. Are you currently registered to vote in (STATE)? 100 100 1. Yes - - 2. No (TERMINATE) - - 3. Don t Know (TERMINATE 2. Even though the (STATE) presidential primary (NH/SC/FL/MI)/caucus (IA/NV) is next year, how closely have you been following the coverage of your party s presidential candidates? 49 46 1. Very closely 40 43 2. Somewhat closely 9 8 3. Not too closely 1 2 4. Not at all closely 1 <0.5 9. DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED PRIMARY STATES 3. In 2008, (NH/SC/FL/MI) will hold a presidential primary election so that each party can select its own candidate for President. How likely are you to vote in this primary election? 1. Absolutely certain 2. Very likely 3. Possibly 4. Not very likely TERMINATE 5. Not at all likely TERMINATE 6. Don't know TERMINATE 4. In the (NH/SC/FL/MI) presidential primary for 2008, do you plan to vote as a ocrat, or as a ublican? New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 9
1. ocrat CODE AS DEM PRIMARY VOTER 2. ublican CODE AS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER 3. Don't know / no plan to vote (DO NOT READ) [TERMINATE] CAUCUS STATES 3. In 2008, (IA/NV) will hold statewide caucuses so that each party can select its own candidate for President. How likely are you to attend one of these caucuses? 72 70 1. Absolutely certain 22 26 2. Very likely 6 4 3. Possibly - - 4. Not very likely TERMINATE - - 5. Not at all likely TERMINATE - - 6. Don't know TERMINATE 4. If you were to attend one of your state s political caucuses, would you attend a ocrat caucus or a ublican caucus? 100-1. ocrat CODE AS DEM PRIMARY VOTER - 100 2. ublican CODE AS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER - - 3. Don't know / no plan to vote (DO NOT READ TERMINATE ASK ALL 5. What do you believe is the most important issue facing the country? OPEN END WITH PRE CODES 35* 20 1. Iraq 26* 12 2. Healthcare 7 12* 3. Economy/jobs 2 12* 4. Immigration 1 6* 5. National Security/Homeland Security 5* 2 6. War (not specific to war in Iraq) 1 3* 7. Protecting Social Security 1 3* 8. Terrorism <0.5 2* 9. Taxes New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 10
2 1 10. The environment 2 1 11. Education <0.5 1 12. Morality/family values 1 <0.5 13. Medicare <0.5 1 14. Abortion <0.5 1 15. Balance the budget 1 <0.5 16. Politics as usual <0.5 <0.5 17. Corruption <0.5 <0.5 18. Housing - <0.5 19. Budget cuts - <0.5 20. Drugs - <0.5 21. Crime - <0.5 22. Retirement - <0.5 Guns too much regulation 14 17 23. Other 2 4 24. Don t know 6. Overall, do you think things in the country are generally headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? 7 36* 1. Right direction 87* 51 2. Wrong track 6 14* 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 7a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will the issue of health care be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? 77* 43 1. Very important 20 39* 2. Somewhat important 2 13* 3. Not too important 1 5* 4. Not at all important <0.5 <0.5 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 11
7b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for ublican likely voters/caucus attenders Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo Former Sen. Fred Thompson Ask for ocratic likely voters/caucus attenders Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue? ublicans Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain 12 8 1 18 Very well 38 23 3 38 Somewhat well 12 8 7 13 Not too well 8 4 6 4 Not at all well 26 51 77 23 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 4 6 6 4 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ublicans Paul Romney Tancredo Fred Thompson 10 29 2 3 Very well 18 37 5 16 Somewhat well 11 6 5 14 Not too well 10 5 8 10 Not at all well 45 19 74 51 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 6 4 7 6 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 12
ocrats Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson 4 49 40 18 Very well 19 34 35 27 Somewhat well 12 5 7 8 Not too well 3 3 1 2 Not at all well 60 8 16 42 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 2 1 1 3 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ocrats Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama 7 12 1 28 Very well 21 13 5 44 Somewhat well 10 9 6 9 Not too well 3 4 5 3 Not at all well 56 59 78 16 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 3 4 5 1 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED 7c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed health care, or do you not know enough about their positions on health care to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES or Code Do not know enough to judge 4 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 36 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <0.5. Duncan Hunter 16 Former Sen. John Edwards 5 Sen. John McCain 3 Gov. Bill Richardson 3. Ron Paul 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 20 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 2. Dennis J. Kucinich <0.5. Tom Tancredo 6 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 2 Other 2 Other 9 Don t Know 6 Don t Know 54 Don t know enough to judge 28 Don t know enough to judge New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 13
8. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? 7 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 3 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 33 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 18 Sen. John McCain 13 Former Sen. John Edwards 3. Ron Paul 7 Gov. Bill Richardson 26 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr <0.5. Tom Tancredo 1. Dennis J. Kucinich 1 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 14 Sen. Barack Obama 2 Other 2 Other 8 Don t Know 6 Don t Know 33 Don t know enough to judge 22 Don t know enough to judge 9a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? 69* 61 1. Very important 26 30 2. Somewhat important 4 6 3. Not too important <0.5 2* 4. Not at all important 1 1 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 14
9b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for ublican likely voters/caucus attenders Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo Former Sen. Fred Thompson Ask for ocratic likely voters/caucus attenders Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue? ublicans Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain 11 7 1 17 Very well 35 21 6 38 Somewhat well 12 9 7 8 Not too well 6 3 6 3 Not at all well 31 54 73 29 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 5 7 7 4 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ublicans Paul Romney Tancredo Fred Thompson 7 21 2 3 Very well 16 36 7 17 Somewhat well 9 8 9 12 Not too well 9 4 6 7 Not at all well 53 26 69 54 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 6 5 8 7 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 15
ocrats Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson 4 26 22 11 Very well 19 35 34 26 Somewhat well 10 8 10 7 Not too well 3 3 2 4 Not at all well 59 26 30 49 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 5 3 3 4 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ocrats Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama 6 6 <0.5 18 Very well 19 14 5 38 Somewhat well 9 10 7 8 Not too well 3 4 5 3 Not at all well 58 61 77 30 Don t know enough about candidate on this issue 5 5 6 4 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED 9c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed financial security issues, or do you not know enough about their positions on financial security issues to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES, or Code Do not know enough to judge. <0.5 Former Sen. Sam Brownback 1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 6 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 18 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 11 Former Sen. John Edwards 9 Sen. John McCain 2 Gov. Bill Richardson 3. Ron Paul <0.5 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 18 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 1. Dennis J. Kucinich <0.5 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 6 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Other 1 Other 8 Don t Know 10 Don t Know 53 Don t Know Enough 51 Don t Know Enough New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 16
10. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? <0.5 Former Sen. Sam Brownback 7 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 24 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 16 Sen. John McCain 11 Former Sen. John Edwards 2. Ron Paul 7 Gov. Bill Richardson 22 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 2 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 1. Dennis J. Kucinich 11 Sen. Barack Obama 2 Other 1 Other 9 Don t Know 8 Don t Know 38 Don t know enough to judge 34 Don t know enough to judge 11. How likely are you to change your candidate preference as you learn more about the issues between now and the election? 21 23 1. Very likely 40 46* 2. Somewhat likely 19 17 3. Not very likely 16* 10 4. Not at all likely 4 4 5. Don t know (volunteered) 12. Please tell me if you have gotten any information about the candidates and their position on issues from: (Code yes/no for each) ocrats ublicans Yes Yes 74* 68 Newspapers 87 88 TV news 51* 45 TV talk shows 70 67 Televised candidate debates 46 46 News radio 25 36* Talk radio 39* 29 Candidate forums 67* 58 Campaign mailings 45 40 Friends and family New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 17
17 13 Campaign websites 12 12 Other internet sites 14* 7 Other (specify) 16. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 1 65* 1. A ublican 59* 1 2. A ocrat 38 34 3. An Independent 1 <0.5 4. (DO NOT READ) Other 1 <0.5 5. (DO NOT READ) Don t know <0.5-6. (DO NOT READ) Refused (SCRAMBLE CODES 1-3) 17. Generally speaking, would you characterize your political views as being...? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 13 59* 1. Conservative 54* 33 2. Moderate 28* 4 3. Liberal 2 1 4. (DO NOT READ) None of the Above 3 2 5. (DO NOT READ) Don t know <0.5 <0.5 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused ographics D1. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS] <0.5 1 1. Under 50 23 25 2. 50-59 47 45 3. 60-74 27 25 4. 75+ 42 42 5. 50-64 55 53 6. 65+ 2 3 7. Refused [DO NOT READ] New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 18
D2. What is your marital status? Are you currently. 62 65 1. Married, 12 9 2. Divorced, <0.5 <0.5 3. Separated, 17 21 4. Widowed, 6* 3 5. Or have you never been married? 1 <0.5 6. Living with partner [DO NOT READ] <0.5-7. Don't know [DO NOT READ] 2 1 8. Refused [DO NOT READ] D3. What is the highest level of education you have completed? [READ LIST] 6* 3 1. Less than high school 23 22 2. High school graduate or equivalent 22 30* 3. Some college or technical training beyond high school 24 29 4. College graduate 25* 16 5. Or, Post-graduate or professional degree <0.5-6. Don't know [DO NOT READ] 1 1 7. Refused [DO NOT READ] D4. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Are you currently.[read LIST] 23 25 1. Employed full-time 12 9 2. Employed part-time 53 57 3. Retired and not working 2 1 4. Unemployed and looking for work 3 3 5. Homemaker 2 2 6. Disabled 4 4 8. Or something else [Specify: ] - <0.5 9. Don t Know [DO NOT READ] <0.5 1 10. Refused [DO NOT READ] New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 19
D5. For statistical purposes only, please stop me when I get to the category That includes your household s income before taxes in 2006. Was it [READ LIST] 3 2 1. Less than $10,000 9 8 2. $10,000 but less than $20,000 12 9 3. $20,000 but less than $30,000 9 9 4. $30,000 but less than $40,000 12 11 5. $40,000 but less than $50,000 15 11 6. $50,000 but less than $75,000 9 11 7. $75,000 but less than $100,000 9 15* 8. $100,000 or more 4 5 9. Don't know [DO NOT READ] 17 21 10. Refused [DO NOT READ] D6. Are you Spanish, Latino, or Hispanic? 1 <0.5 1. Yes 98 99 2. No <0.5 <0.5 3. Don t Know 1 1 4. Refused D7. Which of the following groups best describes your race? [READ LIST] 96 96 1. White 1-2. Black or African-American 1-3. Asian - <0.5 4. Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander <0.5 <0.5 5. American Indian or Alaska Native 1 2 6. Other - <0.5 7. Don t know 2 1 8. Refused New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 20
D8. What is your gender? 38 48* 1. Male 63* 52 2. Female D9. Finally, what is your 5-digit zip code? New Hampshire Election Issues Survey, December 2007 21