The The Skills Skills Road Road Skills for Employability in Uzbekistan
I. Labor market outcomes Favorable demographics present a window of opportunity for increased economic growth. Population composition Working age population 1 3 72 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 2 15 1 5 7 68 66 64 62 6 58 56 54 52 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 255 26 265 27 275 28 285 29 295 21 Share of Total Population (%) Working-age Populations (thousands of individuals) Share of working age population in total population (%) Aged -14 Aged 15-24 Aged 25-65 Aged 65+ Working Age Population (left) Share of Working Age Population in Total Population (right)
I. Labor market outcomes The Uzbek economy experienced strong economic growth in the last decade. 15 Average rate of employment growth 1 2.87% per year since 1996. 5 Working-age population has grown at an equivalent rate 5 of 2.63 % per year. Job creation has 1 fallen short when compared to 15 economic growth Uzbekistan ECA OECD rates. GDP growth (% per annum) 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211
I. Labor market outcomes Productivity is comparable to MICs and has grown significantly in the last decade. 211 GDP per person engaged (constant 199 US$ at PPP) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, GDP Per Person Engaged (Left) Productivity Growth (Right) 25 2 15 1 5 % Growth in GDP per person engaged (constant 199 US% at PPP), 2 to 211 Note: Productivity is defined as GDP per person employed/engaged.
There has been an uneven distribution of jobs between men and women. Employment rate (% of population) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 I. Labor market outcomes A. Employment rate: men Men Uzbekistan Cohort (age in years) OECD Average Employment rate (% of population) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 B. Employment rate: women Women Cohort (age in years) Uzbekistan OECD Average
I. Labor market outcomes Informal salaried work is common, particularly in agriculture and industry and among lower educated individuals. High shares of physical work and repetitive tasks performed, without the opportunity to learn new things on the job. Informal salaried work by sector High shares of physical and repetitive work Share of informal employment 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 54% 5% 4% 38% 3% 2% 1% % Agriculture Services Industry Total 1 9 8 Percentage (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Agriculture Industry Services Total Perform physical work regularly Learning new things at least once a week Perform repetitive tasks more than half the time
I. Labor market outcomes Labor market discouragement is significant, especially among young women and young and older men. Labor market discouragement: men Labor market discouragement: women Share of working-age population (%) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Share of working-age population (%) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Note: The figures depict the number of unemployed (individuals looking for work) and discouraged men and women as a share of the population in the age cohort.
I. Labor market outcomes Weak labor market information systems cause deficiencies in skill matching. Ability to fill out job applications 28 Two of the biggest constraints to finding work are: Learning about job vacancies Signaling skills to employers Ability to perform adequately in an interview Good references Adequate education and qualifications The necessary work experience Ability to prepare resume A way to certify or demonstrate qualifications Means to find out about job vacancies 29 39 44 46 49 52 58 5 1 Share of respondents identifyin as a constraint (%)
II. Skills and employability Defining skills: Measured in this study Cognitive skills Memory Literacy Numeracy Non-cognitive skills Openness to New Ideas and People Workplace Attitude and Behavior Decision Making Achievement Striving Growth Mindset Scale Source: Pierre et al. (forthcoming); STEP Skills Measurement Surveys: Innovative Tools for Assessing Skills cited in World Bank (213b).
Employment rate (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Education attainment has a positive impact on employment outcomes. Informality rates fall sharply with educational attainment. 57 67 II.. Skills and employability Employment rate by educational level 77 62 81 83 All Men Women Secondary general Secondary technical/special Tertiary Total 84 82 35 5 68 43 Share of informal employment 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Informal salaried work by educational attainment 77% 68% 49% 16% 54% Note: Respondents aged 25 64.
II. Demand for skills There is a robust correlation between cognitive and noncognitive skills and employment status in Uzbekistan..2 Cognitive skill mean scores by employment status.2 Non-cognitive skill mean scores by employment status Standard deviations from the mean.15.1.5 -.5 -.1 -.15 -.2 Memory*** Literacy* Numeracy* Employed Discouraged Inactive Standard deviations from the mean.15.1.5 -.5 -.1 -.15 Employed Discouraged Inactive
II. Skills and employability The level of cognitive skills depends on age and employment, while non-cognitive skills are only dependent on employment. Cognitive skills Non-cognitive skills.2.1. -.1 -.2 -.3 -.4 literacy memory numeracy.1.5. -.5 -.1 -.15 -.2 -.5 -.25 Young Employed Young Inactive Young Employed Young Inactive Old Employed Old Inactive Old Employed Old Inactive Note: Young adults are 25 34 years old; old adults are aged 55 64.
III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Skills are developed throughout the lifecycle. Sensitive and critical development periods for each type of skill. The development of solid cognitive and noncognitive skills early in life is central to building skills needed for productive employment. to 3 3 to 5 Primary School Socio-Emotional Skills Secondary School Post Secondary Life Long Learning Technical Skills Cognitive Skills
III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Preschool and tertiary education enrolment remain low. Primary and secondary enrollment are relatively high, but preschool and tertiary enrollment falls short. Tertiary education is accessible mostly to households in the top consumption quintile. Enrollment (as % of population in age group) 1 8 6 4 2 26 48 69 26 57 Gross enrolment rates 86 9 111 1413 16 1 95 96199 12 89 89 82 69 9 4142 556 Pre-primary Primary Secondary Tertiary Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Malaysia Turkey 7576
1% II. Skills and employability Higher education attainment is correlated with wealth Tertiary education is accessible mostly to better off families 9% 8% 7% 17% 17% 18% 22% 29% 59% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 23% 22% 23% 2% 2% 18% 18% 21% 17% 14% Primary Basic Secondary special/technical 17% 16% 5% 2% Higher education First Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile
III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Few firms in Uzbekistan offer formal training programs to full-time employees. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Russia Kazakhstan Moldova Belarus Ukraine Tajikistan Uzbekistan Armenia Kyrgyzstan Georgia Azerbaijan Czech Republic Poland Lithuania Eurasia Comparators Source: Gill et al., 214, based on the EBRD-World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys (BEEPS), 29.
III. Skills formation over the lifecycle The correlation between educational attainment and skills outcomes is weak. There is variation among individuals with identical education levels, raising concerns about the education system s quality. Cognitive skill mean scores by educational attainment: men Standard deviations from the sample mean.4.3.2.1 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.4 Memory Literacy Numeracy** Secondary general Secondary special/technical Tertiary Note: Respondents aged 25 64. F-test results are depicted by *** significant at the 1% level; ** significant at the 5% level; * significant at the 1% level.
IV. The skills roadmap A number of actors play a role in building skills throughout the lifecycle. Families and communities Future workforce Adult training institutions Skills Formation Formal educational institutions Current workforce Firms (learning by doing; on-thejob training)
IV. The skills roadmap Five policy areas are to be prioritized: 1. Get children off to the right start by expanding access to quality early childhood development programs. 2. Ensure that all students learn by modernizing the curricula and improving teaching quality. 3. Build jobrelevant skills that employers demand by implementing labor market programs. 4. Encourage entrepreneurshi p and innovation by increasing quality tertiary education access. 5. Match the supply of skills with employers demands by improving labor market information systems.
V. The skills roadmap Particular policy interventions include: Expand access to quality ECD programs. Modernizing the curricula and improving teaching quality. Increasing access to quality tertiary education. Addressing technical skills gaps through labor market programs. Addressing market failures that prevent on-the-job training. Improving migrant skills to increase their earning capacity and their ability to support their families. Strengthening the link between migrants skills and labor market needs abroad, and their quality and visibility of those skills. Improving labor market information systems, through for instance employment observatories.