4/25/2014. Population: 253 million (World Population Review) Number of Voters: million (The Guardian)

Transcription

1 1 Indonesia is the world s third largest democracy, South-east Asia s largest economy, a G20 member, and home to the world s largest Muslim population. It matters. (The Guardian) Population: 253 million (World Population Review) Number of Voters: million (The Guardian) 2 1

2 1. Indonesian Governmental Structure a. President directly elected for a five-year term, maximum two terms b. House of Representatives ( DPR ) 560 Seats main legislative body c. Regional Representative Council ( DPD ) very limited legislative power d. DPR and DPP together constitute the People s Consultative Assembly e. Provincial and district governments 3 2. Current Government a. President: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (Demokrat party) 4 2

3 b. Current constitution of the House (Wikipedia): Current composition of the People's Representative Council (DPR) (breakdown by coalition) Total Seats 560 % Governing Coalition Democratic Party (Demokrat) Golkar Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) National Mandate Party (PAN) 46 8 United Development Party (PPP) 38 7 National Awakening Party (PKB) Total Seats 560 % Opposition Indonesian Democratic Party Struggle (PDI-P) Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) People s Conscience Party (Hanura)

4 3. Presidential Election Process and Calendar APRIL MAY JUNE JULY April 9 May 9 May 16 May 16-July 8 July 9 - House Election - Results Announced - Parties Name Candidates - Campaign - Election Day 7 a. April 9, Election of new House of Representatives b. Official results of House election announced by May 9, 2014 c. Nominations for President and Vice President may be made only by: i. A party winning 25% or more of the popular vote in the House election; or ii. A party winning 20% or more of the seats in the House; or iii. Coalitions of parties who have, in aggregate, won 20% or more of the seats in the House 8 4

5 d. Deadline for filing names of Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees with Election Commission: seven days after announcement of official results of House election (however parties may announce/nominate their own candidates any time, including before the House elections) 9 e. Parties seek to form coalitions during period April 10 through deadline for filing names of candidates with the election commission f. Presidential election campaign: May and June 2014 g. Presidential election (first round): July 9, 2014; if no candidate receives a majority, a run-off takes place h. Campaign for Presidential election run-off during July and August 2014 i. Presidential election (run-off) September 2014 j. Inauguration of new President October 20,

6 APRIL MAY JUNE JULY April 9 May 9 May 16 May 16-July 8 July 9 - House Election - Results Announced - Parties Name Candidates - Campaign - Election Day Results of May 9 House Election a. 12 parties participated (down from 38 parties in 2009). Here are the parties and their preliminary results (Wikipedia; Jakarta Globe; Presidential Power website:

7 Party % of Vote (Preliminary) Party % of Vote (Preliminary) Indonesia Democratic Party Struggle (PDI-P) -- Megawati, chair; Joko Wibowo ( Jokowi ), nominee 19 Democratic Party -- party of President Yudhoyono ( SBY ), who is chair 10 Golkar -- party of former President Suharto; Aburizal Bakrie, nominee 15 National Awakening Party (PKB) -- founded by Abdurrahman Wahid ( Gus Dur ); Muhaimim Iskandar. Chair; Rhoma Irama 9* Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) -- Prabowo, nominee 12 National Mandate Party (PAN) -- chair: M. Hatta Rajasa, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs 7.7* 13 Party % of Vote (Preliminary) Party % of Vote (Preliminary) Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) -- Moh. Anis Matta, chair, who replaced Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq 7* People s Conscience Party (Hanura) -- Wiranto (former head of armed forces) chair and nominee; running mate: Harry Tanosoebidbjo, media tycoon (TV and cable) 3.2 National Democratic Party (NasDem) -- Surya Palor (media tycoon newspaper, TV), chair 6.6 Crescent Star Party (PBB) - - chair: Dr. H. MS. Kaban 1.4* United Development Party (PPP) -- chair: Dr. H. Suryadharma Ali (?) 6.3* Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) -- split off from Golkar

8 b. Surprises: i. No party won 25% of popular vote (nor, presumably, 20% of House seats); now parties need to form coalitions to nominate Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. ii. Jokowi PDIP won less than 20%; his party s stated goal was to win at least 27% and polls indicated he would win over 35%. iii. Islamic parties together won approximately 30% of popular vote, up from 24% in the last election. 15 c. Possible outcomes for the July election (a three or even four party contest, with possible run-off): i. Jokowi + coalition ii. iii. iv. Prabowo + coalition Bakrie + coalition Dark Horse (Demokrat?) + coalition 16 8