Real Live Transitions from Socialism to Capitalism: Russia
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1 Real Live Transitions from Socialism to Capitalism: Russia
2 Review from Tues. Why the transition from Socialism to Capitalism? Liberal arguments Inability for socialist economies to grow and modernize Inability to compete in the global economy Economic Nationalist arguments For Russia, elites saw that their country was becoming less powerful as it was becoming less wealthy
3 Economic Nationalists want Growth which leads to wealth which leads to power Soviet Union: The inefficiencies of Autarky Soviet Growth rates fall Technology gaps widened and multiplied Soviet elites: Yikes! We are no longer a Great Power!
4 The Soviet Union under Gorbachev: tinkering with Socialism Perestroika Glasnost Led to. Econ. Crisis Weakening of Communist party s hold on the state Declarations of independence Which meant the death of the Soviet Union
5 A complete system change is necessary (Kornai) but whichpath to capitalism? OR
6 Russia choses Shock Therapy. Large cluster of simultaneous changes needed Price liberalization + privatization + elimination of subsidies for industry + anti-monopoly policies + enforcement
7 Russia: Shock Therapy in action Privatization + Price controls and subsidies are removed Led to inflation Prices rose for necessities So govt. printed money.but that didn t help obligations to do everything too great So factories reverted to barter, didn t pay workers Govt. gets IMF loan IMF imposes Washington Consensus Ensured no turning back to Communism Inflation drops Macroeconomic stabilization Unemployment and inequality More Privatization
8 So market institutions were in place but they were weak.. Crony Capitalism Emergence of oligarchs Asset stripping Job losses Capital flight Bandit Capitalism Protest Longing for a return to Communism
9 Results.Unemployment
10 Privatization benefitted the Rich and Powerful.and the corrupt Crony Capitalism Emergency of oligarchs Asset stripping Capital flight Bandit Capitalism Protest Longing for a return to Communism
11 Inequality
12 Brain Drain
13 Repression
14 Russia. A One Trick Pony or a new world economic Power?
15 China choses Gradualism The Chinese got shock therap y out of their system They learned the hard way They chose the path of gradualism Ideological pragmatism Stiglitz believes they had the wisdom to know what they didn t know
16 Abandoning Protectionism China started entering the international economy after 1978 Foreign trade decisions were decentralized Special economic zones were created Volume of foreign trade rose And foreign investment flowed in
17 The China Price Low wage industrial reserve army Joint ventures Technology transfor Competition Remember the product cycle?
18 Influx of Capital: FDI
19 China s growth
20 Equality and Inequality in China
21 Poverty
22 Economic growth substitutes for political reform? Economic reform as a substitute for political reform? Institutional reforms limit the power of the one-party state Some of the reforms were
23 What did we learn from the Transition experience? Both Liberals and Economic Nationalists agree that. Growth is ultimately more important than equality.
24 What about the relationship between markets and democracy? The Lesson from Russia Simultaneous introduction of markets and democracy backfired Democracy was weak and illiberal The weak state could not regulate the market Market undermined democracy It takes a strong state to introduce the market But why did it work in Poland?
25 The relationship between markets and democracy The Lesson from China Gradual introduction of markets without democracy China followed Gerschenkron: strong state led development
26 China: State-led development Moved from focus on equality to focus on growth Started with agriculture Lifted rural population out of poverty Mandatory planning gradually replaced by markets developed without inequality
27 Shifting World Power The rise of New Powers and the end of American hegemony?
28 The world is changing rapidly The international order is obsolete Shaped by US during the cold war Institutions based on rules of capitalism and democracy Powerful, wealthy, often non-democratic countries with state-run economies are challengers The BRICs But they have little power in international institutions like the IMF, World Bank, G-8 And why should they care about the current international order?
29 Why should we care? The Liberal Would dismiss this question. Why? U.S. economic nationalists would be worried. Why?
30 The BRICs
31 Simultaneous Take-offs China and India: 1/3 of world s population High growth rates Likely to keep growing And shifting the technological balance of power India will vault over Germany in our lifetimes
32 For the economic nationalist: Economic power means military power China has the world s largest foreign exchange reserves Uses it for access to raw materials Large foreign aid programs Nigeria Sudan Indonesia Can military power be far behind?
33 ?
34 And Russia. Nuclear petro-state? Growth without development? Failure to modernize + Global Ambitions
35 There are now more non-democracies than democracies in the world They are powerful They include two nuclear powers Half the global population Oil producers Their Economic policies have not followed western liberal model They pursue state capitalism Blurring distinction between public and private
36 And they are changing the game They are already shaping world politics Russia exerts influence in areas vital to U.S. security India is dethroning US high tech industry India and China are settling their differences and cooperating They are proving to be resilient in economic crisis They have amassed sovereign wealth funds That buffer their economies And they don t have a place at the table
37 The G-20
38 Meanwhile.U.S. Hegemony is declining US Growth rate has fallen by ½ since the beginning of the century Debt and deficit Energy dependent China s share of global product has grown by 144 pe3r cent India is growing at 5% per year Russia is flush is oil and gas revenues, paying off debts while the US sinks deeper into debt
39 And is being challenged in international institutions Old arrangements are relics In IMF and World Bank, Benelux has a larger quota than China China challenges the Washington Consensus Why should it be the premise for economic development And a condition for loans?
40 Why is this happening? Theories of Political Economy have an answer
41 Theories of Dynamic Markets The Business Cycle Product Cycle Theory Marxist Analysis All of Development Theory Weber s open source theory Creative Destruction
42 Creative Destruction Joe Schumpeter Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy Creative Destruction: innovators destroy established businesses Source of market power Ensures against monopoly power It hurts
43 Creative destruction historically: Schumpeter s waves
44 Econ. Nationalist View: Nations that produce high technology are most powerful Britain rose to Hegemony on the invention of the steam engine Germany rose to power because of its revolutionary technological contribution to heavy industry During its hegemonic period, the United States was the most innovative
45 Waltz: international political economy ruled by a hegemon is unstable Dominant powers expand too much Imperial decay is... primarily a result of the misuse of powerwhich follows inevitably from its concentration. And even if they don t, others worry that they are too powerful Their preferences might not be the preferences of others But isn t America different? Arthur Schlesinger thinks so.
46 Solution? Bring these challengers into international institutions Elevate the G-20
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