Responding to Crises in the Modern Infrastructure
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1 Responding to Crises in the Modern Infrastructure
2 Responding to Crises in the Modern Infrastructure Policy Lessons from Y2K Kevin F. Quigley Assistant Professor, School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University, Canada palgrave macmillan
3 * Kevin F. Quigley 2008 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin's Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Quigley, Kevin F. Responding to Crises in the Modern Infrastructure: Policy Lessons from Y2KI Kevin F. Quigley. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN Risk management. 2. Year 2000 date conversion (Computer systems) 3. Infrastructure (Economics) 4. Crisis management. I. Title. HD61.Q dc Transferred to Digital Printing 2012
4 For Sara, Eva and Rachel
5 Contents List of Tables List of Figures List of Acronyms Acknowledgements viii x xii xiv 1 Introduction 2 Risk-A Contested Concept 3 How Did the Governments React to Y2K? 4 The Market Failure Hypothesis 5 Opinion-Responsive Hypothesis 6 The Interest Group Hypothesis (The Issue Network) 7 Conclusion Appendices Appendix A Methodology Appendix B List of Interviews Appendix C Members ofus/wg on Transportation and the NIF Group in Aviation Notes Bibliography Index vii
6 List of Tables 3.1 Cabinet Office and Office of Management and Budget Directives to Government Departments Critical sectors represented at the National Infrastructure Forum (UK/NIF) and the Working Groups (US/WG) IT market and GDP (Excerpt) Tone of tabloid/populist media coverage: percentage of alarming headlines to reassuring headlines, sorted by newspaper, Tone of broadsheet coverage: percentage of alarming headlines and reassuring headlines sorted by newspaper, Selected sources within the broadsheet coverage Selected references within the broadsheet coverage Critical sectors represented at the National Infrastructure Forum (UK) and the Working Groups (US) (repeated) Y2K testimonies before the UK Science and Technology Committee, November 1997-March Y2K testimonies before Congressional Subcommittee on Technology and the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology, March 1997-March What the participants at the Science and Technology Committee hearings wanted the UK government to do about Y2K Methods for determining Y2K Compliance across selected sectors of the US infrastructure Number of organizations participating in UK/NIF by selected sectors Departments that were members of the most US/WGs Total IT and Y2K expenditures in the United States, Changes to some higher profile consulting organizations that had specialized in Y2K 146 viii
7 List of Tables ix 7.1 The extent to which the three hypotheses help to explain the governments' management of Y2K 154 A.l Variation within agencies along key measures of the three hypotheses 172 A.2 Access to documents and staff 176 A.3 Median word count per article, sorted by newspaper and by quarter 178
8 List of Figures 1.1 The framework for this book (Hood, Rothstein and Baldwin's (2001) Risk Regulation Regime Framework, adapted) Risk Rationality Diagram Event Tree Analysis, amended Cultural theory typology Risk Rationality Diagram, amended Final UK government Year 2000 reporting structures Final US government Year 2000 reporting structures National Infrastructure Forum: subsector progress towards Y2K Compliance, 1999 SO 3.4 The Y2K-related regulatory space in UK aviation PCs installed in the United States and Europe The logic of a market failure approach to regulatory size Total Y2K expenditure (Selected Organizations) How the governments understood risk in the run-up to Y2K Volume of coverage in The Sun and USA Today, sorted by newspaper and by quarter, Volume of broadsheet coverage sorted by newspaper type and by quarter, Volume of broadsheet coverage sorted by country and by quarter, Tone of broadsheet coverage: percentage of articles with 'alarming' headlines sorted by country and by quarter, Public opinion: percentage of Americans who said they think it is likely that these systems will fail as a result of the Y2K bug UK public opinion: two surveys on how people felt about Y2K Percentage of Americans who said what they or someone in their household had already done or probably would do to protect themselves against Y2K-related problems Observed regime content and opinion responsiveness, amended 114 x
9 List of Figures xi 5.9 Tone of media coverage: percentage of articles with alarming headlines sorted by country and by quarter, (Significant Executive Interventions Noted) IT risk management tools applied to different risk contexts: when the goal is stability 158 A.l Interviews US, sorted by institution 174 A.2 Interviews UK, sorted by institution 175
10 List of Acronyms ATC BDD BLS CAA CCTA CD CIA CIO CITU Cm CO COTS DETR DOL DOT EDS EO EOP FAA FT GAO GDP GMIT GMT HMTreasury HRO HSE lata IDC INT IT IVV JAA Air Traffic Control Business Development DISC Bureau of Labor Statistics Civil Aviation Authority Central Communications Technology Agency Compact Disc Central Intelligence Agency Chief Information Officer Communications and Information Technology Unit Command Paper Cabinet Office Commercial Off-the-Shelf Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions Department of Labor Department of Transportation Electronic Data Services Executive Order Executive Office of the President Federal Aviation Administration The Financial Times General Accounting Office (now, the Government Accountability Office) Gross Domestic Product Government Management, Information and Technology Sub-Committee Greenwich Mean Time Her Majesty's Treasury High Reliability Organizations Health and Safety Executive International Aviation Transport Authority International Data Corporation Interview Information Technology Internal Verification and Validation Process Joint Aviation Authority xii
11 List of Acronyms xiii LOBs LT MB MCU MFH NAO NATS NHS NIF NMD NYT OECD OFTEL OIG OMB ONS ORH PAC PC PRA SAG SAIC SCST SEC SME UK UN US USAT WAN WG WSJ Y2K Lines of Business The Times of London Micro Business (one to nine employees) Media Communications Unit Market Failure Hypothesis National Audit Office National Air Traffic Service National Health Service National Infrastructure Forum 'No Material Disruption' to the essential public services upon which the public relies (the UK Y2K strategy) The New York Times Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Office of Telecommunications Office of the Inspector General Office of Management and Budget Office of National Statistics Opinion-Responsive Hypothesis Public Accounts Committee Personal Computer Probability Risk Assessments Senior Advisors Group Science Applications International Corporation Standing Committee on Science and Technology Securities Exchange Commission Small and Medium-sized Enterprises United Kingdom United Nations United States USA Today Wide Area Networks US Government Y2K Working Groups The Wall Street Journal Year 2000 Computer Bug
12 Acknowledgements Much of the work in this book was completed as part of my PhD research at the Institute of Governance, Public Policy and Social Research at Queen's University Belfast (QUB). I was very fortunate to be one of the inaugural PhD students at the Institute. It was a lively and intellectually engaging place. There are many people to thank for their help, and I hope I have conveyed my gratitude to them personally as I worked towards the completion of this project. I will name a few key contributors here. I wish to thank my PhD supervisors at QUB, Professor Rick Wilford from the School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy and Professor George Philip from the School of Management and Economics. I would also like to thank the Director of the Institute, Professor Elizabeth Meehan. Professor Mel Dubnick from the University of New Hampshire was a visiting scholar at the Institute for two years while I was there. I consulted with Mel informally and frequently. Each of these four people played a vital role in helping me to conduct this research and bring it to completion in my PhD dissertation. Following the completion of my PhD, I took up a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Edinburgh. My mentors there, Professor Charles Raab from the School of Social and Political Studies and Professor Robin Williams, Director of the Centre for Social Sciences, provided thoughtful advice as I began to update the work and adapt its style to one that is more appropriate for a book. I would also like to acknowledge the 68 interview subjects, who gladly gave their time to provide informed and thoughtful views and whose contributions were essential to the outcome. Finally, I also owe a debt of gratitude to my family-my wife, Sara, my mom and dad and my two brothers, Jim and John-whose support started long before this research and was unflinching throughout. I dedicate this book to Sara, whose full support was essential for me personally and who offered it in a variety of ways, unconditionally, and to our daughters, Eva and Rachel. xiv
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