What to Expect from California s New Motor Voter Law

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1 What to Expect from California s New Motor Voter Law June 2016 Eric McGhee and Mindy Romero Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation

2 California s voter registration and turnout rates lag behind other states 7.4 million Californians are eligible but not registered to vote 2012 and 2014 election cycles saw some of the worst turnout in the state s history Higher voter registration is crucial for: Improving civic engagement Making voting population more representative of the state 2

3 Pre-existing law gives voters a choice to register Federal Motor Voter Act, 1995 Voters given a choice to register Information sent to Secretary of State (even for those who decline) New driver s licenses, address updates, renewals Online, by mail, in person Californians are added to the voter rolls when they: Attest to being eligible and Agree to be registered 3

4 Under New Motor Voter, registration is the default New Motor Voter (AB 1461), 2015 Applies to same DMV transactions as Motor Voter But now the default is registration Californians are added to the voter rolls when they: Attest to being eligible and Do not decline to be registered 4

5 Outline How might the electorate change? How many could be registered in the first year? How many people will sign up? Conclusions and recommendations 5

6 Several groups would grow as a share of electorate No college Two foreign-born parents Latino Age Moved in last year Income < $20,000 Asian/Pacific Islander Change in share of electorate (% points) 6

7 improving political representation for all adults Two foreign-born parents No college Current electorate New Motor Voter electorate Latino Income < $20,000 Asian/Pacific Islander Age Gap in political representation (% points) 7

8 Outline How might the electorate change? How many could be registered in the first year? How many people will sign up? Conclusions and recommendations 8

9 The DMV customer base is large Approximate Number of Transactions Driver s license renewal 5,300,000 Address change 2,200,000 ID renewal 1,100,000 New driver s license 800,000 New ID 600,000 9

10 but many eligible customers are already registered 70 80% of all eligible customers are already registered Those engaging with the DMV tend to be young and/or mobile Our estimates adjust for age and mobility 10

11 Number of new registrants depends on adoption rates 3,000,000 Total new registrants 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , % +7.5% +13.9% 0 Low (10%) Medium (50%) High (93%) New Motor Voter adoption rate 11

12 Outline How might the electorate change? How many could be registered in the first year? How many people will sign up? Conclusions and recommendations 12

13 How many who can sign up will sign up? To be registered under New Motor Voter: Attestation of eligibility is required Agreement to be registered is optional Opt in versus opt out influences participation Key considerations: How hard will it be to avoid the eligibility question? Will the registration portion be integrated with the rest of the form? For maximum impact, eligibility question should be required 13

14 Oregon uses an opt-out voter registration system Oregon process is more aggressive No registration decisions during DMV transaction Secretary of State (SoS) mails cards to eligible customers SoS will start reaching back two years to identify eligible residents Strong opt-out system; residents must: Notice a card in the mail that they were not expecting Fill out that card Remember to mail it back 14

15 Outline How might the electorate change? How many could be registered in the first year? How many people will sign up? Conclusions and recommendations 15

16 Conclusions If successful, New Motor Voter will produce notable differences in registered voter population Younger, poorer, less educated, more diverse, more mobile Enough DMV customers to produce large registration increase very quickly Design of customer experience is key Should be as simple and straightforward as possible 16

17 Recommendations Eligibility question should be mandatory Voter outreach still critical Automatic registrants are not automatic voters Current two-step process might leave significant barriers for many Open access to data will be essential for evaluation How far do customers make it through the process? How many questions do they answer? 17

18 What to Expect from California s New Motor Voter Law June 2016 Eric McGhee and Mindy Romero Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation

19 Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Eric McGhee (mcghee@ppic.org; ) Thank you for your interest in this work. 19

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