2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries

Transcription

1 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green Background Paper No 1/05

2 RELATED PUBLICATIONS 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Draft Boundaries by Antony Green Background Paper 4/04 ISSN ISBN January Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library.

3 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green

4 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE David Clune (MA, PhD, Dip Lib), Manager...(02) Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law...(02) Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB (Hons)), Research Officer, Law...(02) Rowena Johns (BA (Hons), LLB), Research Officer, Law...(02) Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Research Officer, Law...(02) Stewart Smith (BSc (Hons), MELGL), Research Officer, Environment...(02) John Wilkinson (MA, PhD), Research Officer, Economics...(02) Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at:

5 2004 NEW SOUTH WALES REDISTRIBUTION: ANALYSIS OF FINAL BOUNDARIES CONTENTS PAGE Summary of Political Consequences 1 Introduction 3 New electoral pendulum 7 Summary of Changes to Electorates 8 Summary of Party Vote for new Electorates 11 Full listing for new Electorates 30 Estimated 2-candidate Preferred Margins 71 Transfers of old electorate enrolments 73 Votes counted at 2003 Election as a proportion of enrolment in October

6 The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, and has worked for the ABC on every state, territory and federal election coverage since He also writes on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony produces regular publications on electoral matters for the NSW Parliamentary Library, and has also prepared publications for other state Parliamentary Libraries. Party Abbreviations ALP CDP DEM GRN IND LIB NAT ONP OTH UNI Labor Party Christian Democratic Party Australian Democrats The Greens Independents Liberal Party National Party One Nation NSW Others Unity Comments and Feedback This publication has been prepared with reference to the electoral maps made available by the Electoral Districts Commission. However, without access to registered voter lists indicating where people cast their vote, and given the scale on some maps, re-allocating booths to new electorates is an imprecise science, especially where booths have to be split. Comments and suggestions on the transfer of polling places is most welcome. Messages can be ed to me at green.antony@abc.net.au.

7 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) SUMMARY OF POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES The redistribution sees the abolition of Lachlan west of the mountains and the creation of Wollondilly, a new outer-metropolitan seat on Sydney s south-west fringe. The shift towards Sydney created by this change sees the electorate of Southern Highlands abolished, but a seat called Goulburn re-created from parts of Burrinjuck and Southern Highlands. The National party lose a seat with abolition of Lachlan, but notionally gain the seat of Murray-Darling, which on the new boundaries is changed from a Labor seat with a 6.7% margin to a National Party seat with a margin of 1.4%. A similar political change occurred at the two previous redistributions, but on neither occasion did the National Party win the seat at the subsequent election. After the 1990/91 redistribution, new boundaries for Broken Hill gave the seat a notional National Party majority, but the seat was won by Labor at the 1991 state election. After the 1997/98 redistribution, the new seat of Murray- Darling had a notional National Party majority, but the seat was won by Labor at the 1999 election. Labor loses Murray-Darling based on the new boundaries, but 2003 election results indicate that the new seat of Wollondilly is a notional Labor seat. With the number of seats held by each party remaining unchanged, the Coalition still need to gain 9 seats from Labor to deprive the government of its majority, and gain 12 seats from Labor to have more seats in the Legislative Assembly. Overall the Coalition need to gain 15 seats to form majority government, with some of those seats needing to be gained from Independents. To gain 9 seats, the Coalition needed a 9.1% swing on the old boundaries compared to 8.7% on the new boundaries. A gain of 12 seats needed a 9.6% swing on the old boundaries and 9.7% on the new boundaries. This suggests the new boundaries have had little impact on the chances of the Coalition winning the next election. Labor s position has been significantly strengthened in Camden 8.7% (up from 5.4%), Cessnock 19.1% (15.5%) and Heathcote 12.3% (8.7%). Labor s position is weakened in Kiama 8.3% (down from 16.9%), Lake Macquarie 11.6% (14.5%) and Londonderry 10.9% (15.3%). Labor s position is also slightly strengthened it its two most marginal seats, Monaro 4.4% (up from 3.3%) and Tweed 4.0% (3.8%). The National Party s position is strengthened in Burrinjuck 12.4% (up from 4.1%) and Clarence 5.3% (1.6%). The position is weakened in Lismore 8.1% (down from 12.8%). The re-creation of Goulburn has the potential to create a dispute between the Liberal and National Parties. This occurred with changes to electorates around Goulburn at the two previous redistributions. There has been a re-arrangement of boundaries on the Central Coast, resulting in the old Labor-held electorate of Peats being re-named Gosford, while the seat previously known as Gosford is now called Terrigal and has a notional Liberal majority. This results in the electorate named Gosford switching from Liberal to Labor, but this is balanced by the abolition of Peats and creation of Terrigal. Other changes to electorate names include Balmain (previously Port Jackson), Castle Hill (The Hills), Oatley (Georges River), Shellharbour (Illawarra), Sydney (Bligh) and Toongabbie (Wentworthville). Of the six Independent held seats, Manly, Tamworth, Port Macquarie and Northern Tablelands see only minor change. Bligh is re-named Sydney but the position of sitting Independent MP Clover Moore does not appear to be weakened. Dubbo has had significant change, losing Wellington and gaining Forbes, making it hard to calculate a new margin. This publication does not take into account the result of the Dubbo byelection. 1

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9 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) INTRODUCTION This publication contains estimates of the political impact of the finalised New South Wales state electoral boundaries, released by the Electoral Districts Commission on 21 December This publication updates and replaces estimates based on draft boundaries, published as Parliamentary Library Research Service Background Paper No. 4/04. Estimates of new margins have been calculated by re-assigning votes from the 2003 state election to match the new electoral boundaries. The following notes provide an explanation of how the results have been re-calculated as well as how to read the tables provided. A Caution on Using New Boundary Estimates Moving votes to new electorates is based on the assumption that votes were cast for parties rather than candidates. This is a reasonable assumption as long as it does not forget that a high profile candidate in a particular electorate can increase the vote for a party. There are also special difficulties with Independent candidates, where it is almost impossible to calculate their level of support in areas added to an electorate. While I have made some attempt to do this with the tables beginning on page 71, these calculations are highly speculative. Re-allocating votes to new boundaries also overlooks the varying level of intensity in party campaigning from electorate to electorate. For instance, in the new electorate of Murray- Darling, the Labor Party vote is likely to be higher in booths from the old Murray-Darling, where the Labor Party ran an active campaign, than in the booths transferred from the safe National seat of Murrumbidgee, where the Labor Party s campaign was more subdued. Above all, the re-calculated figures should not be viewed as predictions of future results, or even past outcomes. On the calculations in this paper, it appears the number of seats held by all parties remains unchanged on the new boundaries compared to the 2003 election result. This is a reasonable observation, but cannot be asserted as a fact, as it overlooks the candidate and campaign intensity factors noted in the previous paragraphs. The next election will be decided by the relative level of support for candidates and parties at the time of the next election, and by the campaign fought on the new boundaries. Recalculating the results of the 2003 election to match the new boundaries merely provides a guide to the key marginal seats where the next election is likely to be decided. A note on Two-Candidate Preferred Counts at the 2003 Election To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. The distribution of preferences is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and distributing each candidate s votes as preferences to candidates remaining in the count. At the end of this process, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. In most electorates, this will be the same as the 'two-party preferred vote, representing the final distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal and National Party Coalition. In 79 electorates at the 2003 New South Wales election, the final two-candidate preferred count was also the two-party preferred count. In the 14 electorates that did not finish as two-party contests, the New South Wales Electoral Office conducted separate two-party preferred counts. In Albury, Bligh, Keira, Manly, Marrickville, Port Jackson, Willoughby and Wollongong, the count was conducted between Labor and Liberal candidates. In Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Northern Tablelands, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, the count was between Labor and National Party candidates. In Londonderry, where the Liberal Party did not contest the supplementary election, the count between Labor and Independent candidates has been used as the two-party preferred count. 3

10 Note that the vast number of exhausted preferences in some of these two-party counts will affect the accuracy of the two-party calculations in some of the new electorates. The new electorate summaries beginning on page 11 are derived from these two-party preferred counts by booth. Separate estimates based on two-candidate preferred counts can be found on page 71. Calculating the Redistribution Following the 2003 election, a database was prepared of the election results in each polling place. This database included the primary and an estimated two-party preferred result for each booth. Two-candidate preferred counts have also been used where appropriate. Decisions on transferring booths to new electorates have been made using the maps provided by the Electoral District Commission. Where it appears that the catchment area for a polling place has been divided by a new boundary, results for that polling place have been split between the new electorates. A check has been made to ensure that the number of votes transferred correlates with the number of electors transferred. This has been done using the enrolment tables provided in the Commission's report. Declaration votes have been distributed to new electorates in proportion to the number of electors transferred. For instance, 91.9% of electors in the electorate of Monaro remained in the re-drawn electorate of Monaro, while 8.1% were transferred to Bega. Declaration votes for Monaro, including normal votes cast at Sydney Town Hall, have been distributed to each of the new electorates in the same proportion. However, the relative proportion of votes transferred for each party have been weighted according to the vote in the booths transferred. As a first step, the ratio of declaration votes to booth votes in the old electorate was calculated, as in the following example. Monaro Booth Results Declaration Votes Ratio Labor 45.85% 41.78% National 42.48% 43.48% Greens 7.69% 9.48% Independent 2.70% 3.38% One Nation 1.29% 1.87% These ratios were then applied to the votes transferred to new electorates. For instance three booths were transferred from Monaro to Bega. The number of voters transferred was 8.1% of the enrolment of 47,441, and so 8.1% of the Declaration votes have been transferred. The above ratios have been applied to the percentage party votes for the booths transferred, as shown below. Monaro Transfers to Bega Booth % Vote Declaration % Adjusted % Labor National Green Independent One Nation In this case, the Labor vote in booths transferred to Bega was 30.08%, as opposed to 47.02% for the booths remaining in Monaro. Applying the ratio of , the Labor percentage of Declaration votes to be transferred is 27.41%. After rounding so the percentages add to 100%, this becomes 26.79% of formal declaration votes. So of the 8.1% of declaration votes transferred to Bega, 26.79% will be Labor Party votes, as compared to the 41.78% Labor vote in the overall Declaration vote for Monaro. 4

11 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) This process may seem unduly complex, but it ensures that the declaration votes transferred reflect the political complexion of the areas involved. In the case of Monaro, the Declaration votes transferred to Bega will have a lower proportion of Labor votes than those that remain in Monaro. Overall, the sum of the declaration votes transferred to Bega and the new Monaro will equal the total declaration vote for the old Monaro. Reading the Tables Summaries of party vote for each new electorate can be found in tables beginning on page 11. The format for these summaries is explained in the following table. BEGA (Roll: 45594) ALP % % Bega % LIB % % Monaro % ** NAT % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % OTH % The first line contains the name of the electorate, and the enrolment at the redistribution date of 21 October The first two columns contain total primary and two-party preferred votes and percentages, calculated by adding up the transferred booth and declaration votes. The third column provides information on the votes transferred from the old electorates. In the case of Bega, it lists the number of votes transferred from Bega and Monaro. This is the total of the booth and declaration votes transferred, and includes both formal and informal votes. It is not the number of electors transferred. The percentage figure on the right is the number of votes transferred expressed as a percentage of the number of electors transferred. In general, I have aimed to keep this figure around the same percentage as the relevant figure for each existing electorate. (A table comparing 2003 votes cast with electorate enrolments on 21 October 2003 can be found on page 77.) In general this percentage is kept in the range 85-95%. Where the value is outside of this range, "**" appears on the listing. The detailed listings beginning on page 30 provide listings of booths transferred for each new electorate. Separate sub-totals are provided for votes transferred from each old electorate. Consider the following example from the listing for Bega. BEGA 2-CANDIDATE PRIMARY VOTES VOTES ALP LIB NAT ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH Transfers from : Bega (41761 Voters) Batehaven, Batemans Bay, Bega, Bega Central, Bega Hospital, Bermagui, Bimbimbie, Bodalla, Brogo, Broulee, Candelo, Central Tilba, Cobargo, Dalmeny, Long Beach, Malua Bay, Merimbula, Mogo, Moruya, Narooma, Nelligen, Pambula, Quaama, South Durras, Sunshine Bay, Tanja, Tathra, Tomakin, Tura Beach, Tuross Head, Wallaga Lake, Wolumla, Declaration votes (86%) Votes % Transfers from : Monaro (3833 Voters) Eden, Towamba, Wyndham, Declaration votes (8%) Votes % BEGA %

12 The lines beginning "Transfers " indicates from which electorate votes have been transferred. The figure in brackets (41761) is the number of electors transferred from the old electorate of Bega, as provided by the Electoral Districts Commission. In this example, the next four lines list the names of the polling places that have been transferred from the old electorate of Bega to the new. Where one of the transferred booths has been divided, a percentage figure is included next to the booth name. The percentage of Declaration votes transferred is indicated in the same way. The column headed VOTES is the total votes transferred, and includes informal votes. It is not the sum of the formal votes on the line. Note that because of ballot papers with exhausted preferences, the total primary and two-party preferred votes may not be equal. A total of votes and percentage votes for each party is provided, representing the sum of the booth and declaration votes transferred. A total is provided for each old electorate from which electors have been transferred, as well as a total vote for the new electorate. Independent Held Seats It is impossible to be certain of support for the six sitting Independent MPs in areas added to their electorates. An attempt has been made to calculate possible new margins for these seats, and details can be found on page 71. These estimates are highly speculative and should be treated with caution. Similar two-candidate estimates are provided for the electorates of Balmain and Marrickville, which based on 2003 results would finish as a contest between Labor and Green candidates. By-Elections The results of the Dubbo by-election have NOT been incorporated into the analysis in this publication. Acknowledgements and Disclaimer All estimates have been calculated based on the actual results of the 2003 election and with reference to data and maps provided by the Electoral Districts Commission. Thanks go to the staff the New South Wales Electoral Office, and the members and staff of the Electoral Districts Commission, for their assistance in preparing this publication. However, responsibility for all calculations, and the assumption underlying them, must rest with the author. Antony Green January green.antony@abc.net.au 6

13 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) New Electoral Pendulum Electorate % Margin Electorate % Margin Labor Seats (55) Marrickville (10.0% v GRN) 31.4 Cabramatta 31.4 Liverpool 30.6 Lakemba 28.8 Canterbury 27.4 Wollongong 26.9 Shellharbour 26.8 Mount Druitt 26.8 Auburn 26.5 Bankstown 26.4 Fairfield 26.4 Smithfield 25.9 Blacktown 24.9 Heffron 24.2 Keira 23.5 Maroubra 23.5 Macquarie Fields 23.3 Campbelltown 19.9 Wallsend 19.8 Granville 19.2 Kogarah 19.1 Cessnock 19.1 East Hills 17.9 Balmain (7.1% v GRN) 17.6 Swansea 17.1 Toongabbie 16.7 Mulgoa 16.6 Rockdale 15.8 Newcastle 15.4 Strathfield 15.2 Blue Mountains 14.8 Ryde 14.8 Oatley 14.2 Parramatta 13.6 Coogee 13.6 Riverstone 13.4 Charlestown 13.3 Bathurst 13.1 Heathcote 12.3 Wyong 12.3 Lake Macquarie 11.6 Londonderry 10.9 Maitland 10.3 The Entrance 9.7 Miranda 9.1 Menai 8.9 Drummoyne 8.7 Camden 8.7 Gosford 8.6 Kiama 8.3 Port Stephens 7.2 Penrith 6.6 Wollondilly 4.6 Monaro 4.4 Tweed 4.0 Liberal/National Seats (20/12) Albury 22.4 Davidson 20.9 Pittwater 20.1 Murrumbidgee (NAT) 18.9 Ku-ring-gai 18.7 Barwon (NAT) 14.6 Hawkesbury 14.6 Myall Lakes (NAT) 13.9 Wakehurst 13.2 Wagga Wagga 12.7 Burrinjuck (NAT) 12.4 North Shore 12.1 Coffs Harbour (NAT) 11.9 Vaucluse 10.9 Castle Hill 10.8 Oxley (NAT) 9.9 Ballina (NAT) 9.4 Cronulla 8.8 Lismore (NAT) 8.1 Epping 7.6 Upper Hunter (NAT) 7.2 Willoughby 7.0 Orange (NAT) 5.9 Clarence (NAT) 5.3 Bega 4.7 Goulburn 4.5 Hornsby 4.2 Baulkham Hills 4.0 Lane Cove 2.8 South Coast 1.6 Murray-Darling (NAT) 1.4 Terrigal 0.6 Independent Seats (6) Dubbo (v NAT) 0.3 Manly (v LIB) 1.2 Tamworth (v NAT) 1.9 Sydney (v ALP) 15.0 Northern Tablelands (v NAT) 30.0 Port Macquarie (v NAT) 31.9 Note: Underlining indicates seats changing party status on the new boundaries. 7

14 SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO ELECTORATES S e a t s H e l d b y P a r t y State of Parties Labor Liberal National Ind. Total Old Boundaries New Boundaries Abolished Electorates (2) New Electorates (2) Name Margin Name Margin Lachlan NAT 21.2 Goulburn LIB 4.5 Southern Highlands LIB 7.6 Wollondilly ALP 4.6 Note: At opposite ends of the Hume Highway, Lachlan has been abolished in the rural midwest while Wollondilly has been created on Sydney's south-west fringe. This has involved the city of Goulburn being removed from Burrinjuck and a new seat called Goulburn being created. As the old seat of Southern Highlands has roughly been divided between Goulburn and Wollondilly, it is shown as an abolished seat while Goulburn and Wollondilly are new seats. It could be argued that Goulburn is Southern Highlands re-named. Re-named Electorates (8) New Name Old name New Margin Old Margin Balmain Port Jackson ALP 17.6 ALP 18.0 See 2CP estimate Sydney Bligh ALP 13.3 ALP 10.9 See 2CP estimate Castle Hill The Hills LIB 10.8 LIB 11.6 Oatley Georges River ALP 14.2 ALP 13.7 Gosford Peats ALP 8.6 ALP 9.7 Shellharbour Illawarra ALP 26.8 ALP 24.8 Terrigal Gosford LIB 0.6 LIB 0.3 Toongabbie Wentworthville ALP 16.7 ALP 14.8 Note: The re-drawing of the boundaries around Gosford means that while a seat called Gosford remains, the old Gosford has been re-named Terrigal, while the old electorate of Peats has effectively been re-named Gosford. That is why Gosford appears in both columns of the above table. It is underlined to highlight this change in party status. Continuing Electorates (83) Name New Margin Old Margin Albury LIB 22.4 LIB 22.5 Auburn ALP 26.5 ALP 27.3 Ballina NAT 9.4 NAT 9.0 Bankstown ALP 26.4 ALP 28.6 Barwon NAT 14.6 NAT 16.2 Bathurst ALP 13.1 ALP 14.1 Baulkham Hills LIB 4.0 LIB 5.9 Bega LIB 4.7 LIB 3.9 Blacktown ALP 24.9 ALP 24.5 Blue Mountains ALP 14.8 ALP 14.8 Burrinjuck NAT 12.4 NAT 4.1 Cabramatta ALP 31.4 ALP 31.7 Camden ALP 8.7 ALP 5.4 Campbelltown ALP 19.9 ALP 19.6 Canterbury ALP 27.4 ALP

15 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) Name New Margin Old Margin Cessnock ALP 19.1 ALP 15.5 Charlestown ALP 13.3 ALP 14.7 Clarence NAT 5.3 NAT 1.6 Coffs Harbour NAT 11.9 NAT 14.3 Coogee ALP 13.6 ALP 12.6 Cronulla LIB 8.8 LIB 9.3 Davidson LIB 20.9 LIB 19.7 Drummoyne ALP 8.7 ALP 8.7 Dubbo NAT 20.6 NAT 18.7 See 2CP Estimates East Hills ALP 17.9 ALP 18.5 Epping LIB 7.6 LIB 6.9 Fairfield ALP 26.4 ALP 27.0 Granville ALP 19.2 ALP 19.5 Hawkesbury LIB 14.6 LIB 14.1 Heathcote ALP 12.3 ALP 8.7 Heffron ALP 24.2 ALP 23.9 Hornsby LIB 4.2 LIB 3.1 Keira ALP 23.5 ALP 25.5 Kiama ALP 8.3 ALP 16.9 Kogarah ALP 19.1 ALP 19.2 Ku-ring-gai LIB 18.7 LIB 21.6 Lake Macquarie ALP 11.6 ALP 14.5 Lakemba ALP 28.8 ALP 27.4 Lane Cove LIB 2.8 LIB 3.2 Lismore NAT 8.1 NAT 12.8 Liverpool ALP 30.6 ALP 30.7 Londonderry ALP 10.9 ALP 15.3 Macquarie Fields ALP 23.3 ALP 22.5 Maitland ALP 10.3 ALP 8.9 Manly LIB 14.4 LIB 14.8 See 2CP Estimates Maroubra ALP 23.5 ALP 23.5 Marrickville ALP 31.4 ALP 31.5 See 2CP Estimates Menai ALP 8.9 ALP 9.5 Miranda ALP 9.1 ALP 9.1 Monaro ALP 4.4 ALP 3.3 Mount Druitt ALP 26.8 ALP 26.8 Mulgoa ALP 16.6 ALP 17.9 Murray-Darling NAT 1.4 ALP 6.7 Murrumbidgee NAT 18.9 NAT 17.8 Myall Lakes NAT 13.9 NAT 15.4 Newcastle ALP 15.4 ALP 14.8 North Shore LIB 12.1 LIB 12.3 Northern Tablelands NAT 13.1 NAT 10.9 See 2CP Estimates Orange NAT 5.9 NAT 7.1 Oxley NAT 9.9 NAT 10.0 Parramatta ALP 13.6 ALP 13.4 Penrith ALP 6.6 ALP 6.1 Pittwater LIB 20.1 LIB 20.1 Port Macquarie NAT 7.7 NAT 5.3 See 2CP Estimates Port Stephens ALP 7.2 ALP 9.3 Riverstone ALP 13.4 ALP 16.1 Rockdale ALP 15.8 ALP 15.9 Ryde ALP 14.8 ALP 15.5 Smithfield ALP 25.9 ALP 27.8 South Coast LIB 1.6 LIB 2.8 Strathfield ALP 15.2 ALP 15.8 Swansea ALP 17.1 ALP 15.9 Tamworth NAT 19.2 NAT 19.9 See 2CP Estimates The Entrance ALP 9.7 ALP 9.6 9

16 Name New Margin Old Margin Tweed ALP 4.0 ALP 3.8 Upper Hunter NAT 7.2 NAT 12.7 Vaucluse LIB 10.9 LIB 10.3 Wagga Wagga LIB 12.7 LIB 13.7 Wakehurst LIB 13.2 LIB 12.7 Wallsend ALP 19.8 ALP 20.7 Willoughby LIB 7.0 LIB 7.4 Wollongong ALP 26.9 ALP 27.7 Wyong ALP 12.3 ALP 11.1 Underlining indicates seats changing party status on the new boundaries. Two-Candidate Preferred Estimates Name New Margin Old Margin Balmain (Port Jackson) ALP v GRN 7.1 ALP v GRN 7.3 Dubbo IND v NAT 0.3 IND v NAT 5.0 Manly IND v LIB 1.2 IND v LIB 1.3 Marrickville ALP v GRN 10.0 ALP v GRN 10.7 Northern Tablelands IND v NAT 30.0 IND v NAT 32.4 Port Macquarie IND v NAT 31.9 IND v NAT 32.8 Sydney (Bligh) IND v ALP 15.0 IND v ALP 14.7 Tamworth IND v NAT 1.9 IND v NAT

17 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) SUMMARY OF PARTY VOTE FOR NEW ELECTORATES ALBURY (Roll: 47231) ALP % % Albury % LIB % % Wagga Wagga % ** IND % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % ONP % OTH % AUBURN (Roll: 42884) ALP % % Auburn % LIB % % Bankstown % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % BALLINA (Roll: 43876) ALP % % Ballina % NAT % % Clarence % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % OTH % BALMAIN (Roll: 46886) (See 2-candidate preferred estimates page 71) ALP % % Drummoyne % ** LIB % % Port Jackson % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % BANKSTOWN (Roll: 45091) ALP % % Auburn % LIB % % Bankstown % GRN % East Hills % DEM % Fairfield % CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % 11

18 BARWON (Roll: 47776) ALP % % Barwon % NAT % % Lachlan % ** GRN % Murray-Darling % ONP % Upper Hunter % OTH % -- TOTAL % Formal Informal % BATHURST (Roll: 46804) ALP % % Bathurst % LIB % % Blue Mountains % ** NAT % % Orange % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI 4 0.0% OTH % BAULKHAM HILLS (Roll: 46867) ALP % % Baulkham Hills % LIB % % Parramatta % ** GRN % Wentworthville % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP 4 0.0% Informal % UNI % OTH % BEGA (Roll: 45594) ALP % % Bega % LIB % % Monaro % ** NAT % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % OTH % BLACKTOWN (Roll: 45431) ALP % % Blacktown % LIB % % Riverstone % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % 12

19 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) BLUE MOUNTAINS (Roll: 46228) ALP % % Blue Mountains % LIB % % Penrith % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % BURRINJUCK (Roll: 46905) ALP % % Burrinjuck % NAT % % Lachlan % ** GRN % Orange % CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal OTH % Informal % CABRAMATTA (Roll: 48802) ALP % % Cabramatta % LIB % % Fairfield % ** GRN % Liverpool % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % CAMDEN (Roll: 43748) ALP % % Camden % ** LIB % % Campbelltown % GRN % Macquarie Fields % DEM % -- TOTAL % ** CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % CAMPBELLTOWN (Roll: 44667) ALP % % Campbelltown % LIB % % Macquarie Fields % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % 13

20 CANTERBURY (Roll: 48603) ALP % % Bankstown % LIB % % Canterbury % GRN % Lakemba % ** DEM % Strathfield % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP 8 0.0% Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % CASTLE HILL (Roll: 45240) ALP % % Baulkham Hills % ** LIB % % The Hills % GRN % Epping % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % CESSNOCK (Roll: 47176) ALP % % Cessnock % LIB % % Lake Macquarie % ** NAT % % Maitland % ** GRN % Wallsend % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % ** CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % CHARLESTOWN (Roll: 46369) ALP % % Charlestown % LIB % % Swansea % GRN % Wallsend % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % CLARENCE (Roll: 46321) ALP % % Clarence % NAT % % Lismore % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % OTH % 14

21 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) COFFS HARBOUR (Roll: 45524) ALP % % Clarence % ** NAT % % Coffs Harbour % GRN % Oxley % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % COOGEE (Roll: 46797) ALP % % Coogee % LIB % % Heffron % GRN % Maroubra % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % UNI % Formal OTH % Informal % CRONULLA (Roll: 46286) ALP % % Cronulla % LIB % % Miranda % GRN % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % DAVIDSON (Roll: 46764) ALP % % Davidson % LIB % % Ku-ring-gai % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % DRUMMOYNE (Roll: 43976) ALP % % Drummoyne % LIB % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % UNI % OTH % DUBBO (Roll: 47738) (See 2-candidate preferred estimates page 71) ALP % % Dubbo % NAT % % Lachlan % IND % Orange % GRN % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % 15

22 EAST HILLS (Roll: 44921) ALP % % East Hills % ** LIB % % Menai % GRN % Bankstown % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % EPPING (Roll: 46722) ALP % % Epping % LIB % % Hornsby % GRN % The Hills % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % FAIRFIELD (Roll: 47641) ALP % % Auburn % ** LIB % % Fairfield % GRN % Granville % ** DEM % Smithfield % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % GOSFORD (Roll: 47048) ALP % % Gosford % LIB % % Peats % GRN % Wyong % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP 3 0.0% Formal ONP 4 0.0% Informal % UNI % OTH % GOULBURN (Roll: 45494) ALP % % Burrinjuck % LIB % % Southern Highlands % NAT % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % OTH % 16

23 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) GRANVILLE (Roll: 45492) ALP % % Granville % LIB % % Parramatta % ** GRN % Smithfield % ** DEM % Wentworthville % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % HAWKESBURY (Roll: 43478) ALP % % Hawkesbury % LIB % % The Hills % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % HEATHCOTE (Roll: 46172) ALP % % Heathcote % ** LIB % % Keira % GRN % Southern Highlands % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ** ONP % Formal OTH % Informal % HEFFRON (Roll: 43396) ALP % % Bligh % ** LIB % % Heffron % IND % Maroubra % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % HORNSBY (Roll: 48019) ALP % % Hawkesbury % LIB % % Hornsby % GRN % The Hills % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % 17

24 KEIRA (Roll: 45978) ALP % % Illawarra % ** LIB % % Keira % GRN % Southern Highlands % ** CDP % Wollongong % ** ONP % -- TOTAL % ** UNI 9 0.0% Formal OTH % Informal % KIAMA (Roll: 45371) ALP % % South Coast % LIB % % Southern Highlands % ** GRN % Kiama % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % KOGARAH (Roll: 46461) ALP % % Kogarah % LIB % % Georges River % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % KU-RING-GAI (Roll: 45649) ALP % % Hornsby % ** LIB % % Ku-ring-gai % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % LAKE MACQUARIE (Roll: 45873) ALP % % Lake Macquarie % LIB % % Peats % GRN % Wyong % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % 18

25 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) LAKEMBA (Roll: 49164) ALP % % Bankstown % ** LIB % % Lakemba % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % LANE COVE (Roll: 46048) ALP % % Lane Cove % LIB % % Ryde % GRN % Willoughby % ** DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % LISMORE (Roll: 46688) ALP % % Ballina % ** NAT % % Clarence % ** IND % Lismore % GRN % Northern Tablelands % DEM % Tweed % CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal OTH % Informal % LIVERPOOL (Roll: 44639) ALP % % Cabramatta % ** LIB % % Camden % ** GRN % Liverpool % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % LONDONDERRY (Roll: 45607) ALP % % Hawkesbury % LIB % % Londonderry % ** IND % % -- TOTAL % ** GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % ONP % UNI % OTH % (Note: The Liberal Party did not contest the Londonderry supplementary election in 2003) 19

26 MACQUARIE FIELDS (Roll: 44078) ALP % % Liverpool % LIB % % Macquarie Fields % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % MAITLAND (Roll: 45092) ALP % % Maitland % LIB % % Port Stephens % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % MANLY (Roll: 45469) (See 2-candidate preferred estimates page 71) ALP % % Manly % LIB % % Wakehurst % IND % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % UNI % OTH % MAROUBRA (Roll: 46462) ALP % % Heffron % LIB % % Maroubra % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % MARRICKVILLE (Roll: 48034) (See 2-candidate estimates page 71) ALP % % Bligh % ** LIB % % Canterbury % ** IND % Marrickville % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % 20

27 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) MENAI (Roll: 45829) ALP % % Heathcote % LIB % % Menai % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % MIRANDA (Roll: 46120) ALP % % Heathcote % LIB % % Miranda % GRN % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % MONARO (Roll: 43608) ALP % % Monaro % NAT % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % MOUNT DRUITT (Roll: 43152) ALP % % Mount Druitt % LIB % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % UNI % OTH % MULGOA (Roll: 44956) ALP % % Camden % ** LIB % % Mulgoa % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % MURRAY-DARLING (Roll: 47521) ALP % % Murray-Darling % NAT % % Murrumbidgee % GRN % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal OTH % Informal % 21

28 MURRUMBIDGEE (Roll: 47544) ALP % % Lachlan % NAT % % Murrumbidgee % GRN % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal Informal % MYALL LAKES (Roll: 46642) ALP % % Myall Lakes % NAT % % Port Macquarie % ** IND % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % ONP % OTH % NEWCASTLE (Roll: 46521) ALP % % Newcastle % LIB % % Port Stephens % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % NORTH SHORE (Roll: 46631) ALP % % North Shore % LIB % % Willoughby % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP 6 0.0% Informal % UNI % OTH % NORTHERN TABLELANDS (Roll: 48759) (See 2-candidate preferred estimates page 71) ALP % % Barwon % NAT % % Northern Tablelands % IND % Tamworth % GRN % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % 22

29 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) OATLEY (Roll: 46025) ALP % % Georges River % LIB % % Kogarah % GRN % Lakemba % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % ORANGE (Roll: 46965) ALP % % Dubbo % NAT % % Orange % ** IND % Upper Hunter % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % ** CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % OXLEY (Roll: 45207) ALP % % Coffs Harbour % NAT % % Myall Lakes % ** IND % Oxley % GRN % Port Macquarie % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal OTH % Informal % PARRAMATTA (Roll: 44535) ALP % % Granville 0 0.0% ** LIB % % Parramatta % GRN % Wentworthville % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % PENRITH (Roll: 45537) ALP % % Blue Mountains % ** LIB % % Mulgoa % ** GRN % Penrith % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % 23

30 PITTWATER (Roll: 45578) ALP % % Pittwater % LIB % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % UNI % OTH % PORT MACQUARIE (Roll: 43668) (See 2-candidate estimates page 71) ALP % % Oxley % ** NAT % % Port Macquarie % IND % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % OTH % PORT STEPHENS (Roll: 44871) ALP % % Myall Lakes % LIB % % Newcastle % NAT % % Port Stephens % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI 1 0.0% OTH % RIVERSTONE (Roll: 43415) ALP % % Hawkesbury % LIB % % Londonderry % ** IND % % Mount Druitt % ** GRN % Riverstone % DEM % -- TOTAL % ** CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % ROCKDALE (Roll: 45833) ALP % % Kogarah % LIB % % Rockdale % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % 24

31 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) RYDE (Roll: 45976) ALP % % Epping % LIB % % Ryde % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % SHELLHARBOUR (Roll: 46026) ALP % % Illawarra % ** LIB % % Wollongong % GRN % Kiama % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % SMITHFIELD (Roll: 47707) ALP % % Mount Druitt % ** LIB % % Mulgoa % ** GRN % Smithfield % ** DEM % Wentworthville % ** CDP % -- TOTAL % ** ONP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % SOUTH COAST (Roll: 44989) ALP % % Bega % ** LIB % % South Coast % GRN % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % STRATHFIELD (Roll: 45397) ALP % % Bankstown % LIB % % Canterbury % GRN % Strathfield % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % 25

32 SWANSEA (Roll: 47145) ALP % % Charlestown % LIB % % Swansea % GRN % Wyong % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % SYDNEY (Roll: 45760) (See 2-candidate preferred estimates page 71) ALP % % Bligh % ** LIB % % Heffron % ** IND % Port Jackson % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % ** DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % TAMWORTH (Roll: 47415) (See 2-candidate estimates page 71) ALP % % Barwon % ** NAT % % Tamworth % IND % Upper Hunter % GRN % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % TERRIGAL (Roll: 45651) ALP % % Gosford % LIB % % The Entrance % ** GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal CDP % Informal % ONP % UNI % OTH % THE ENTRANCE (Roll: 44870) ALP % % Peats % LIB % % The Entrance % GRN % Wyong % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % 26

33 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) TOONGABBIE (Roll: 47026) ALP % % Blacktown % LIB % % Riverstone % ** GRN % Wentworthville % DEM % -- TOTAL % CDP % Formal ONP % Informal % UNI % OTH % TWEED (Roll: 43046) ALP % % Ballina % NAT % % Tweed % GRN % -- TOTAL % DEM % Formal ONP % Informal % OTH % UPPER HUNTER (Roll: 47180) ALP % % Cessnock % LIB % % Maitland % NAT % % Myall Lakes % GRN % Upper Hunter % DEM % -- TOTAL % ONP % Formal UNI % Informal % OTH % VAUCLUSE (Roll: 47591) ALP % % Bligh % LIB % % Vaucluse % IND % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal CDP % Informal % UNI % OTH % WAGGA WAGGA (Roll: 47468) ALP % % Burrinjuck % ** LIB % % Wagga Wagga % NAT % % -- TOTAL % GRN % Formal DEM % Informal % CDP % ONP % OTH % 27