PSCI4120 Public Opinion and Participation

Transcription

1 PSCI4120 Public Opinion and Participation Group Differences in Public Opinion I Tetsuya Matsubayashi University of North Texas February 22, / 20

2 Group Differences in Public Opinion How can we explain differences in people s attitudes on political issues? People often think of themselves as belonging to a specific group. Group Identification may influence public opinion. Class, race/ethnicity, religion, geography, gender... Self-interest and sociocultural values as underlying mechanisms. Example 1: People with low income status strongly support increases in government spending for welfare programs because... Example 2: Catholics strongly oppose abortion because... 2 / 20

3 Group Differences in Public Opinion Self-Interest Group Identification Political Attitudes Sociocultural Considerations Underlying Mechanisms 3 / 20

4 Socioeconomic Class and Public Opinion The rich and the poor often seem to have quite different economic interests because a great many issues in political life concern the distribution of benefits within society. We observe class conflicts on many political issues such as taxation and government services. What is class and how can we measure it? Subjective indicator: lower (6%), working (43%), middle (49%), and upper (3%) (GSS 2004). Objective indicator: income, education, and occupation. 4 / 20

5 Income Distribution in the U.S. Proportion ~$10k $10k ~$20k $20k ~$30k $30k ~$40k $40k ~$50k $50k ~$60k $60k ~$75k $75k ~$100k $100k ~$125k $125k ~$150k $150k ~$200k $200k~ Household Income Source: Census / 20

6 Class Differences on Economic and Welfare Issues By European standards, political cleavages along class lines in the United States are rather muted. An increasing number of Americans see society as divide into the haves and have-nots in recent years. Typically, the poor in the U.S. are more favorable to social welfare programs designed to raise living standards than are the more well-to-do. A large gap in the level of support for redistributive policies. No meaningful gap in the level of support for policies that benefit all classes. 6 / 20

7 Class Differences on Economic and Welfare Issues Class differences in opinions on spending issues Spend More On Working Middle Upper AIDS research 60% 51% 38% Public Schools Aid to poor people Roads and bridges Social Security Child Care Health Care Helping large cities Science and technology Foreign aid Interestingly, class division on redistributive policies is not so strong as expected. (Example: High support for George W. Bush s tax cuts policy) 7 / 20

8 Social Welfare Opinions by Family Income Liberal (1) Conservative (7) Guaranteed Job and Standard of Living Domestic Spending and Social Services Under $15K $15K~$35K $35K~$80K $80K~$105K Over $105K Income 8 / 20

9 Class Differences on Noneconomic Domestic Issues Liberalism tends to increase rather decrease as one goes up the status ladder. Opinion Working Middle Upper Favor gun control 46% 56% 59% Favor abortion right Favor gay marriage Support rights of the accused / 20

10 The Role of Education We find clear status difference in the opinions on economic issues. Status difference in the opinions on non-economic issues are complicated by the role of education. On non-economic issues, high education but not high income is associated with liberalism. On economic issues, high income is negatively related to liberalism, but education is not. On aid to blacks, we see the joint effect of higher education (which affects the noneconomic part of the issue) and the conservative effect of income (which affects the economic part of the issue). 10 / 20

11 The Role of Education Joint effects of education and income on economic and noneconomic issues High School Some College Support For... Only College Graduate Legal abortions in most circumstances (non-economic issue) Family Income Low 39% 61% 71% Medium High More domestic spending (economic issue) Family Income Low 78% 67% 76% Medium High More government aid to blacks (both) Family Income Low 21% 30% 48% Medium High / 20

12 Class Differences in Voting and Party Preference Ever since the 1930s, socioeconomic class has been the principal factor dividing people into Republicans and Democrats. As one moves up the income ladder, the frequency of party identification and frequency of Democratic presidential voting both decrease. Low income citizens are affiliated with the Democratic party, while high income citizens are affiliated with the Republican party. 12 / 20

13 PID and Presidential Vote by Family Income Proportion Democratic Party Identification Presidential Vote Under $15K $15K~$35K $35K~$80K $80K~$105K Over $105K Income 13 / 20

14 Democratic Presidential Vote by Family Income, / 20

15 Silent Voices Do opinion polls help to improve political equality? Polls hold special appeal as a form of gauging the public s will because they appear to be free of the compositional bias that plagues traditional forms of participation. Economic Status Ideology Bias Participation Levels Economic Status Ideology Bias? Responses to Opinion Polls 15 / 20

16 Silent Voices Exclusion bias: individuals who would tend to cluster toward one end of the opinion scale will be pressed toward a don t know response and, ultimately, removed from public opinion. Economic Status Ideology Policy Preferences Don t Know How does exclusion bias arise? 16 / 20

17 Silent Voices Individuals do not typically possess true attitudes on issues, but a series of partially independent and often inconsistent considerations (Zaller and Feldman 1992). The controversial nature of the welfare state in the U.S. originates from two sets of inherently contradictory values: Democracy = fairness and equalitarianism Capitalism = opposition to big government and support for individualism Both of these values are strongly supported by the society. 17 / 20

18 Silent Voices Social welfare conservatives exhibit less value conflict than liberals. They are able to oppose social welfare policies while at the same time endorsing equality of opportunity rather than the economic equality of results clear preferences Social welfare liberals must reconcile their humanitarian democratic impulses with the capitalist impulses towards individualism and limited government unclear preferences 18 / 20

19 Silent Voices In sum, liberals are (1) more prone to the value conflict that leads to difficulty at the stage of opinion formation, and (2) lacking in those resources that would allow them to resolve their uncertainty and form political opinions well connected to their personal wants, needs, and desires. Liberals are likely to be those who need governmental assistance. 19 / 20

20 Silent Voices Issue placement positions (based on simulation) 7-Point Placers Non Placers Difference Services n=1307 n=194 Guaranteed Jobs n=1372 n=129 Redistribution n=1157 n=340 Higher values indicate more liberal views. Public opinion on social welfare controversies gives disproportionate weight to respondents opposed to expanding the government s role. 20 / 20