ASIA TODAY. Series Editors

Transcription

1 ASIA TODAY Before 1820, Asia generated more than half of the world s gross domestic product. Since then, the region underwent a period of decay and decline. Today, Asia is in the midst of a great transformation, and it is estimated that by 2035 it will be responsible for more than one-half of the world s gross domestic product. Propelled by three decades of rapid economic growth, momentous political transitions, and intensified regional integration, Asia is no longer simply a fast-expanding and evolving region; it is increasingly the geopolitical epicenter for the global system itself. The goal of this series is to offer readers a front-row seat to view and better understand this kaleidoscope of regional change in all its dazzling dynamism and diversity. Who would have thought in 1978, when Deng Xiaoping came to power in Beijing, that China would soon begin a generation of double-digit economic growth? Who could have foreseen that Asia would become the region where the world s richest countries, Singapore and Brunei, would live shoulder-to-shoulder with the world s poorest, Afghanistan and Laos? The Asia Today series is designed to respond to the growing demand for sustained research and deep knowledge of contemporary Asia. It covers the full expanse of this vast region from China to India, Japan to Pakistan, Kazakhstan to Turkey, Mongolia to Israel, Iraq to Indonesia. The series editors, Takashi Inoguchi and G. John Ikenberry, aided by a 44-member advisory board, are dedicated to identifying fresh and penetrating studies of Asia by the region s foremost experts. Series Editors Takashi Inoguchi, Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo and President, University of Niigata Prefecture, Japan G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs,Princeton University, Department of Politics, and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Published by Palgrave Macmillan: Political Parties and Democracy: Contemporary Western Europe and Asia Edited by Takashi Inoguchi and Jean Blondel The Troubled Triangle: Economic and Security Concerns for the United States, Japan, and China Edited by Takashi Inoguchi and G. John Ikenberry Japan, the US, and Regional Institution-Building in the New Asia: When Identity Matters By Kuniko Ashizawa The Rise of Korean Leadership: Emerging Powers and Liberal International Order By G. John Ikenberry and Jongryn Mo Asia-Pacific Nations in International Peace Support and Stability Operations Edited by Chiyuki Aoi and Yee-Kuang Heng

2 The Globalization of Chinese Propaganda: International Power and Domestic Political Cohesion By Kingsley Edney The Australia-ASEAN Dialogue: Tracing 40 Years of Partnership Edited by Sally Percival Wood and Baogang He Japanese and Korean Politics: Alone and Apart from Each Other Edited By Takashi Inoguchi Japanese and Russian Politics: Polar Opposites or Something in Common? Edited By Takashi Inoguchi

3 Japanese and Russian Politics Polar Opposites or Something in Common? Edited by Takashi Inoguchi

4 JAPANESE AND RUSSIAN POLITICS Copyright Takashi Inoguchi, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 All rights reserved. First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Japanese and Russian politics : polar opposites or something in common? / edited by Takashi Inoguchi. pages cm (Asia today) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Japan Politics and government 21st century. 2. Russia (Federation) Politics and government 21st century. 3. Japan Foreign relations 21st century. 4. Russia (Federation) Foreign relations 21st century. 5. Political culture Japan. 6. Political culture Russia (Federation) 7. Comparative government. I. Inoguchi, Takashi, editor of compilation. JQ1631.J dc A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Knowledge Works (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: January ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI /

5 Contents List of Figures and Tables Preface and Acknowledgments vii ix 1 Japan and Russia: Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy 1 Takashi Inoguchi 2 Japanese Politics: Leaders, Political Parties, and Economic Policy 2.1 Politics of Swings 17 Takashi Inoguchi 2.2 Political Parties in Disarray 33 Dmitry Streltsov 3 Russian Politics: Leaders, Kremlin and Politics of Vperyod (Forward) 3.1 Politics of Volatility 55 William Smirnov 3.2 Politics of Dictatorship and Pluralism 73 Nobuo Shimotomai 4 Japan and Russia Economics 4.1 Economics Takes Command 93 Yutaka Harada 4.2 Politics of Modernization 113 Liubov Karelova

6 vi Contents 5 Japanese Foreign Policy: Searching for an Honorable Place in the World 5.1 Continuity in Alliance 135 Shigeki Hakamada 5.2 Foreign Policy in Statu Nascendi 145 Sergey V. Chugrov 6 Russian Foreign Policy: Vperyod (Russia Go Forward) Eastward? 6.1 Improvising at Kremlin 165 Akio Kawato 6.2 Pragmatic Realism 185 Sergey Oznobishchev Bibliography 207 List of Contributors 221 Index 223

7 Figures and Tables Figures Growth Rate of Real GDP and Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation Relative Poverty Rates of Market Incomes and Adjusted Incomes in Major Countries Predictions of Social Security Expenditure and GDP Predictions of Social Security Expenditure per the Aged and Per Capita GDP 108 Tables Public support for different development models What words reflect your opinion of Vladimir Putin? To what extent do you trust Vladimir Putin? Would you like Putin to be elected as president of Russia for another six years or to have Medvedev for another six years or to have an entirely different person? Would you like to see Putin as Russia s president after his current presidential term in 2018? Attitude of Russians Toward the United States and Japan 152

8 This page intentionally left blank

9 Preface and Acknowledgments In an era of globalization, connectivity and sensitivity among sovereign countries increase. When Crimea was detached from Ukraine to Russia, the Japanese government must have wondered how to respond. For a number of known reasons, Japan and Russia have not yet concluded a peace treaty of World War II leaving territorial, commercial, and many other issues unsettled or undersettled. Japan insists on the recovery of what they call Northern Territories, while Russia yearns for Japanese inputs into Siberia and the Far East. If Japan condemns Russia for Crimea and Ukraine, the prospect for Japan s enhanced economic cooperation with Russia is likely to decrease somewhat. If Japan does not criticize Russia for taking Crimea, Japan will be more vulnerable to self-assertive China with which disputed islands (the Senkaku/Diayu) persists. In the Hague nuclear summit in spring 2014, the Group of Seven issued a joint communique criticizing Russia for Crimea and Ukraine. Japan also sent a special emissary to Moscow in May 2014 to convey a more nuanced message directly. Russia does not seem to rebuff Japan. China kept basically silent on Russia and Crimea and Ukraine. Although Japan and Russia are widely regarded as polar opposites in many ways, the awareness to know each other better has been on the steady rise on both sides. President Vladimir Putin has put forward his Ostpolitik eyeing Japan and China to make breakthroughs into the Siberian and Far Eastern development. Although Prime Minister Shinzō Abe is often regarded as out of sync with President Barack Obama of the United States, President Park Geun-hye of South Korea, and President Xi Jingping of China for known and unknown reasons, he is sometimes rumored to be on the same wavelength with President Vladimir Putin. This volume has come out of the meeting between Professor Sergei Chugrov, a foremost political scientist and editor of Polis, a Russian

10 x Preface and Acknowledgments political science journal at Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO) and myself during the Annual Meeting of the Japanese Association of International Relations some years ago. Professor Nobuo Shimotomai, a foremost Russian specialist at Hosei University, introduced me to him. Then an academic conference idea sprang up among us. A couple of years later the Nomura Foundation gave the University of Niigata Prefecture a grant on the Japan-Russia project. The University of Niigata Prefecture s Center for Empirical Political Science Research gave an additional grant. In March 2013 a conference was held in Tokyo. Ten political scientists, five from each, participated, and frank and vigorous discussion ensued. This volume is one of the outcomes of this Japanese and Russian academic encounter. I am grateful to the Nomura Foundation and the University of Niigata Prefecture for their grants to enable us to carry out this academic endeavor. Professor Sergei Chugrov and Professor Nobuo Shimotomai have been most gracious in participating in the project with their thorough scholarship and warm friendship. I express my utmost gratitude to them and to those Japanese and Russian participants. Also I am grateful to the staffs of the University of Niigata Prefecture for their meticulous work of holding the conference, getting draft papers revised, and helping me to finish the editor s work: Chizuru Morita, Eri Kimura, Tomomi Okano, Fumie Shiraishi. I cannot fail to register my sincerely gratitude to Dr. Farideh Koohi Kamali, General Academic Editor at Palgrave Macmillan (New York), who established its Asia Today series with coeditors, G. John Ikenberry of Princeton University and myself. Takashi Inoguchi in Tokyo