Public Opinion in Indonesia. Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey October 2014

Transcription

1 Public Opinion in Indonesia Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey October 2014

2 Key Finding Indonesians generally have very positive views on the conduct of the presidential elections, with large majorities giving good marks for the organization of these elections and expressing satisfaction with the overall election process as well as specific aspects of the process. The majority of Indonesians also believe that the presidential elections were free and fair. There are, however, some concerns about manipulations of election results at some polling stations in the country which in turn have an effect on perceptions of integrity of the election process. There is a great deal of satisfaction expressed by Indonesians on the performance of electoral institutions, including the KPU, during the presidential election process. Most Indonesians express a strong sentiment that elections of regional and local heads of government should place directly with the Indonesian voters making this choice rather than members of legislative bodies. Supporters of both President Jokowi and Prabowo hold these sentiments, as do supporters of their party coalitions in the DPR. The majority also agrees that even though direct elections are expensive, they should nonetheless be the only vehicle for choosing of regional and local heads. Furthermore, the majority of Indonesians do not believe that indirect elections would lead to a reduction of money politics or corruption in the country. Indonesians generally have more positive impressions of the direction of the country and the economic situation in the country than at any time since late However, the economic situation and corruption are still the two most prominent issues that Indonesians believe the country still needs to address.

3 Detailed Methodology Sample size: 2,000 respondents representing the voting-age population in Indonesia (17 years+). Margin of error: ±2.1 % within a 95% confidence interval. Sample area coverage: All the provinces of Indonesia (34); observations were allocated proportionately at the national level with an over-sample of observations in Aceh, Maluku, Papua, and West Papua. Fieldwork dates: October 25 November 3, 2014 Survey firm: IFES contracted with the Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for the survey. Weights: Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (17+) population of Indonesia.

4 Views on 2014 Elections

5 Organization of Parliamentary and Presidential Elections 81% 82% Very Well Organized Well Organized Badly Organized Very Badly Organized DK/NR 7% 8% 8% 8% 3% 1% 1% 2% Parliamentary Presidential "How would you rate the organization of the [April 9 parliamentary; July 9, 2014 presidential] election?

6 Satisfaction with Overall Election Process for Presidential Election 9% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 22% 76% 66% 82% 11% 9% 13% Indonesia Supporters of Prabowo Subianto Supporters of Joko Widodo Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR How satisfied were you with the overall voting process and procedures of the presidential elections on July 9, 2014?" (n=1,908)

7 Problems Experienced During Voting (by region) 79% 94% 91% 92% 93% 95% 95% 96% 96% 100% 21% 5% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% Indonesia Maluku / Papua Aceh Bali / NTT / NTB Sulawesi / Garantolo East Java Central Java / Yogyakarta West Java / Bantan / Jakarta Sumatra Kalimantan Yes No "Did you experience any problems while voting during presidential elections?" (n=1,908)

8 Opinions on Fairness of Elections (Trend) 3% 1% 7% 11% 11% 2% 66% 64% 19% 16% Completely Free and Fair Somewhat Free and Fair Not too Free and Fair Not at all Free and Fair DK/NR November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) November 2014: "In your opinion, how free and fair was the most recent presidential election? June 2014: In your opinion, how free and fair were the most recent parliamentary elections?

9 Attitudes on Free and Fair Elections (by Presidential Candidate Choice) 6% 1% 2% 2% 22% 71% 57% Completely Free and Fair Somewhat Free and Fair Not too Free and Fair Not at all Free and Fair DK/NR 21% 16% Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto "In your opinion, how free and fair were the most recent election?"

10 Attitudes on Specific Aspects of Election 11% 12% 4% 1% 6% 1% 17% 6% 23% 10% 42% 69% 68% 46% 32% 15% 13% Eligible voters had an equal opportunity to participate in the election Casting, vote counting, and announcing results were done accurately at the TPS level 18% 4% 3% Manipulating of election results occurred at some polling stations There was massive manipulation of election results during the 2014 presidential election Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR "Please tell me whether you agree with the following statements about the Presidential elections on July 9, 2014." (n=2,000)

11 Attitudes on Manipulation of Election Results (by Presidential Candidate Choice) "Manipulating of election results occured at some polling stations" "There was massive manipulation of election results during the 2014 presidential election" 17% 6% 13% 6% 23% 18% 37% 12% 10% 46% 41% 50% 40% 28% 27% 3% 4% 14% 2% 4% Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto "Please tell me whether you agree with the following statements about the Presidential elections on July 9, 2014." (n=2,000)

12 Concerns of Violence on Election Day (by region) 7% 8% 6% 2% 9% 26% 24% 22% 24% 23% 5% 4% 5% 7% 13% 19% 26% 24% 28% 32% 23% 32% 35% 32% 40% 49% 41% 43% 42% 36% 29% 26% 8% 11% 12% 29% 30% 31% 31% 19% 8% 7% 5% 3% 9% 14% 21% 15% 5% 2% Indonesia West Java / Bantan / Jakarta Maluku / Papua Central Java / Yogyakarta East Java Sumatra Kalimantan Aceh Sulawesi / Garantolo Bali / NTT / NTB Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned DK/NR "How concerned were you about the possibility of violence would break out in your local community if the official election result was not accepted by one of the contesting sides?" (n=2,000)

13 Institutions Trusted to Ease Concerns about Election Violence Police 91% 4% 5% Military 90% 5% 4% Community Leaders 85% 8% 7% Joko Widodo 73% 15% 14% Constitutional Court 73% 16% 12% Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono 71% 13% 16% Jusuf Kalla 70% 14% 16% Media 69% 14% 17% Prabowo Subianto 68% 18% 14% Hatta Rajasa 65% 15% 21% Very/Somewhat Important DK/NR Somewhat/Very Unimportant "In your opinion, how important were the following institutions or individuals in easing your concerns of electoral violence after the election?" (n=2,000)

14 Attitudes Towards the KPU and other Electoral Institutions

15 Satisfaction with Performance of KPU 7% 10% 1% 12% 1% 13% 13% 13% 1% 20% 13% 1% 40% 14% 2% 71% 70% 67% 60% 40% 8% 7% 7% 6% 4% Informing and educating the public about the election process in Indonesia Ensuring the election results are accurate and reflect how people voted Compiling and establishing the voter's list that is used on Election Day Maintaining independence from political pressures in the administration of elections Using the internet and social media like Facebook and Twitter to reach out to voters in Indonesia Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR "Please tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the KPU's performance in the following areas:" (n=2,000)

16 Views on Performance of Electoral Institutions Performance of the civilian security officers (HANSIP) in supporting the voting process at TPS Impartiality in the counting, tabulation, and announcement of results at the TPS level 93% 89% 5% 2% 5% 6% Performance of the police and security officials in providing security for the elections 90% 5% 6% Impartiality of the polling station staff 92% 5% 3% Adequacy of the facilities and equipment at the polling station 90% 6% 4% Competency of the polling station commissioners 90% 6% 4% Information on voting procedures and how to mark the ballots 90% 6% 4% Information on where and when to vote 93% 4% 3% Voter registration process 89% 7% 4% Very/Somewhat Satisfied Very/Somewhat Dissatisfied DK/NR "Please tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the following aspects of the election:" (n=2,000)

17 Accessibility of Pre-Election Voter Education Messages 24% 2% 6% 27% 75% 67% November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) Yes No DK/NR "In the weeks leading up to the election, did you see or hear or read any information messages or activities that provided citizens information about voting steps and the election process?"

18 Adequacy of Pre-Election Voter Education Messages 6% 7% 1% 37% 39% 57% 53% November 2014 (n=1,497) June 2014 (n=1,343) DK/NR Not enough information, and you needed much more information about voting procedures Satisfactory, but you still needed some more information about voting procedures Abundant, and helped you fully understand voting procedures "Did you feel that the information you obtained about voting procedures was...?"

19 Attitudes on Neutrality of Electoral and Political Institutions Poll Station Worker 77% 13% 10% National Army 77% 16% 7% Village Election Committee 76% 14% 10% National Police 75% 16% 10% Field Election Oversight 74% 18% 8% Election Oversight Committee (District) 70% 20% 10% National Bawaslu 69% 21% 10% National KPU 69% 16% 15% District KPU 68% 18% 14% Provincial KPU 67% 18% 15% Election Oversight Committee (Provincial) 67% 23% 10% Civil Servants 67% 18% 15% Constitutional Court 66% 25% 9% Supreme Court 65% 27% 8% Honorary Council of EMBs 64% 29% 7% Neutral DK/NR Not Neutral "Do you think the following groups are able to respond neutrally without political influence in issues related wit the Presidential election process?" (n=2,000)

20 Views on Electoral Issues

21 Preferred Means to Elect Regional/Local Heads (by Presidential and Party Choice) 3% 7% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 10% 8% 84% 89% 78% 90% 81% 6% 4% Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Outstanding Indonesia Coalition 10% Voting through DPRD Direct Election Either System DK/NR 5% 8% Red & White Coalition In your opinion, what is the suitable election system to elect governor and/or heads of district in Indonesia?

22 Views on Expense of Elections 19% 20% 17% 15% 17% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% 30% 33% 25% 33% 31% 40% 36% 46% 40% 41% 5% 4% 6% 5% 6% Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Outstanding Indonesia Coalition Red & White Coalition Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR Direct elections of governor and district heads or mayors are too expensive

23 Views on Expense of Elections versus People Making Choice of Leader 14% 15% 12% 11% 12% 10% 8% 14% 10% 9% 67% 71% 59% 71% 66% 9% 7% Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Outstanding Indonesia Coalition 15% 7% 13% Red & White Coalition DK/NR It doesn't matter to people like me whether leaders in this area are chosen by voters or by local parliaments. No matter the cost, it is important that voters get to choose their leaders and not have others do it for them. Voters in this areas should choose their leaders through elections. Elections are too expensive. It would be better for local parliaments to choose governor, district head, and mayor for this area to avoid the cost of holding an election. Please tell me which of these three statements is closest to your opinion.

24 Views on Impact of Indirect Elections on Money Politics 19% 20% 16% 16% 17% 13% 13% 13% 15% 12% 39% 39% 39% 41% 39% 25% 25% 27% 25% 28% 4% 3% 5% 4% 5% Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Outstanding Indonesia Coalition Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR Red & White Coalition Switching to a system where local parliaments elect governors and districts heads or mayors will reduce money politics, transactional politics, and discourage corruption.

25 Rethinking Election Choices if Aware of Indirect Elections of Provincial Head 38% 37% 34% 30% 31% 8% 8% 17% 18% 8% 18% 7% 8% 20% 19% 37% 37% 40% 42% 42% Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Outstanding Indonesia Coalition Red & White Coalition This would not have affected my decision, my choice would stay the same I would have chosen a diffent candidate or party I might have voted for a different candidate or party DK/NA If you were told before casting your vote that the persons or party you choose for the DPR Propinsi would also vote on your behalf for governor, which of the following best describes your reaction?

26 Views on Current Situation in Indonesia

27 Direction in which Indonesia is Headed 18% 10% 13% 15% 22% 29% 67% 68% 59% November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890) Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR "Do you believe things in Indonesia are generally going in the right direction or do you believe things are going in the wrong direction?"

28 Economic Situation in Indonesia (Trend) 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 39% 44% 48% 51% 44% 40% 1% 1% 2% November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890) Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad DK/NR "How would you describe the current economic situation in Indonesia?"

29 Greatest Issues facing Indonesia (Trend) 38% 33% 29% 28% 31% 21% 12% 13% 12% 8% 7% 6% 5% 6% 4% Price of basic needs Corruption Jobs/Work Education Law Uncertainty November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890) "In your opinion, what is currently the greatest problem being faced by Indonesians?

30 Views on Corruption in Indonesia "In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption in Indonesia?" (n=2,000) "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the nation government's efforts to fight official corruption?" (n=2,000) Not Prevalent At All, 1% DK/NR, 11% Very Dissatisfied, 4% DK/NR, 8% Very Satisfied, 5% Not Too Prevalent, 9% Very Prevalent, 33% Somewhat Dissatisfied, 39% Somewhat Satisfied, 44% Somewhat Prevalent, 47%

31 Prevalence of Corruption People's Representative Council 16% 53% 9% 0% 22% Political Parties Government Officials / Civil Servants 12% 9% 51% 52% 11% 16% 1% 1% 25% 22% Police 11% 48% 19% 1% 21% Courts Election Oversight Body National Election Commission Non-Governmental Organizations 9% 3% 2% 2% 30% 28% 24% 49% 35% 33% 32% 3% 16% 2% 2% 1% 33% 35% 37% 25% Military 2% 23% 43% 3% 29% Universities 2% 21% 40% 4% 34% Media 2% 20% 38% 3% 37% Religious Institutions 1% 19% 43% 6% 32% Pervasive Corruption A Fair Amount of Corruption Not Much Corruption No Corruption At All DK/NR "Please tell me how much corruption you think there is among each of these groups or organizations." (n=2,000)

32 Confidence in Institutions and Leaders 4% 1% 5% 1% 13% 15% 14% 15% 15% 12% 3% 3% 3% 4% 16% 6% 29% 29% 29% 33% 55% 56% 36% 47% 47% 47% 45% 37% 27% 23% President Joko Widodo Vice President Jusuf Kalla 7% 6% 6% 7% 4% DPR Kab/Kota DPD DPR Province DPR RI Political Parties Great Deal Fair Amount Not Much None at All DK/NR Please tell me how much confidence you have in the following individuals and institutions to address important issues in Indonesia and your community over the next five years." (n=2,000)

33 Public Opinion in Indonesia Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey October 2014