ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

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1 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK RRP: KGZ TAJ REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS ON PROPOSED LOANS AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GRANTS TO KYRGYZ REPUBLIC AND REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN AND A REGIONAL TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GRANT FOR THE REGIONAL TRADE FACILITATION AND CUSTOMS COOPERATION PROGRAM October 2002

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 1 August 2002) Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Currency Unit som (Som) Som1.00 = $0.021 $1.00 = Som48 Currency Unit somoni (TJS) TJS1.00 = $0.37 $1.00 = TJS2.704 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CAR Central Asian republic CC Customs Committee CCC Customs Cooperation Committee CCRM Commission for Customs Reform and Modernization CGCRM Consultative Group for Customs Reform and Modernization CIS-CU Commonwealth of Independent States Customs Union CO customs organization Comecon Council of Mutual Economic Assistance DCA Drug Control Agency ECA East and Central Asia ECU Eurasian Customs Union EU European Union FSU former Soviet Union GDP gross domestic product ICT information and communication technology IMF International Monetary Fund IRU International Road Transportation Union MOF Ministry of Finance MSRD Ministry of State Revenues and Duties PPTA project preparatory technical assistance PRC People s Republic of China PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility RETA regional technical assistance RTFCCP Regional Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation Program SAC2 Second Structural Adjustment Credit SCI State Customs Inspectorate SECO Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs TA technical assistance TACIS technical assistance for CIS countries TIR Transports Internationaux Routiers (International Road Transport) TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe - Central Asia UNDP United Nations Development Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development WCO World Customs Organization WTO World Trade Organization

3 NOTES (i) (ii) The fiscal year of the Governments ends on 31 December. In this report, $ refers to US dollars. This Report was prepared by a team consisting of: S. Akhtar (Team Leader), Y. Qian, A. Malmstrom, and R. Subramaniam."

4 CONTENTS Page LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY MAP ii ix I. THE PROPOSAL 1 II. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 1 III. THE SECTOR 5 A. Sector Description and Performance 5 B. Issues and Opportunities 7 C. External Assistance to the Sector 10 D. ADB s Operations and Strategy in the Sector 11 IV. THE PROPOSED PROGRAM 12 A. Objectives and Scope 12 B. Policy Framework and Actions 14 C. Important Features 18 D. Financing Plan 19 E. Implementation Arrangements 20 V. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE 21 A. PPTAs for Customs Modernization and Infrastructure Development Project 21 B. Regional Technical Assistance for Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation 23 VI. PROGRAM BENEFITS, IMPACTS, AND RISKS 25 A. Benefits 25 B. Impacts 26 C. Risks 27 VII. ASSURANCES 27 VIII. RECOMMENDATION 28 APPENDIXES 1 Problem Tree External Assistance Program Framework Chronology of Processing Steps Objective Tree Development Policy Letters and Policy Matrixes Ineligible Items Project Preparatory Technical Assistance Framework, Cost Estimates and Terms of Reference Regional Preparatory Technical Assistance Framework, Cost Estimates and Terms of Reference Summary Poverty Reduction and Social Strategy Poverty Impact Assessment 71

5 LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY Borrowers The Proposal Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan To support the East and Central Asia (ECA) Regional Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation Program (RTFCCP), it is proposed to provide (i) program loans to Kyrgyz Republic (SDR equivalent of $15 million) and Tajikistan (SDR equivalent of $10 million), (ii) project preparatory technical assistance (PPTAs) amounting to $500,000 equivalent each for Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan for preparing the Customs Modernization and Infrastructure Development Project, and (iii) regional technical assistance (RETA) (amounting to $2 million equivalent) for Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation. Subject to adequate progress in policy reforms and the feasibility work sponsored under the PPTAs, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will continue to promote trade facilitation and customs reforms across the ECA region through regional and country specific interventions. The Program Rationale At independence, the industrial and trade structure of the Central Asia republics (CARs) was inward oriented and served the countrywide needs of the former Soviet Union (FSU). However, this production and trading structure base was not sustainable in the post-soviet era, as the captive domestic markets within the FSU were lost and no longer economical, and output and trade collapsed. The transition of ECA countries to market economies has opened up a new era of collaboration and provided opportunities for developing mutually beneficial economic relations between them. To achieve industrial and trade growth and diversity, the ECA region, is increasingly recognizing the merits and advantages of strengthening the incentive framework and infrastructure to facilitate effective integration into the world trading system. A key theme of the RTFCCP is to reduce trade barriers between the CARs; Xinjiang, People's Republic of China (PRC); and Mongolia. Currently, the trade performance of the region, excluding the PRC, has lagged. Besides the low level of trade flows, there is limited inter- and intra-regional trade. This is largely because of the: (i) narrow export base; (ii) lack of trade diversification; (iii) infrastructure bottlenecks; (iv) market access difficulties; (v) weak border and transit facilities; and (vi) weak institutional support, in particular customs organizations (COs). Recognizing these constraints, the region is keen to foster economic alliances in the fields of infrastructure, trade, and investment. In 1997, ADB initiated the regional economic cooperation program in ECA region with the overall objective of promoting economic growth and reducing poverty. ADB s regional strategy is three-pronged: (i) development of transport to remove bottlenecks, (ii) cooperation in the energy sector to encourage rational use of vital resources, and (iii) trade facilitation to promote market integration both within the region and with the outside world. Regional cooperation is viewed as critical for political and economic stability in a region that shares a common history and common development challenges, but faces resources constraints and a number of geographical disadvantages.

6 iii Objective and Scope The RTFCCP, a major pillar of the overall ECA economic cooperation program supported by ADB, is designed to better integrate the transition economies into the world trading system by setting up a regional framework with an effective cooperation mechanism, providing critical funding for reform and modernization of the two weakest customs systems, and organizing TA activities to strengthen the legal and regulatory frameworks in conformity with international treaties and agreements. Within this broader agenda, the RTFCCP aims to promote good governance of the institutional structure that deals with trade facilitation and customs modernization with the objective of promoting greater diversification in trade, which will eventually support the transformation of the weak industrial base in these economies. The two least developed ECA economies, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, have the weakest customs organizations in the region, which need to be reformed and modernized to effectively carry out their mandate of trade facilitation, revenue collection, and combating smuggling. The Program will aim to (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Strengthen governance and transparency, and improve institutional capacity of customs organizations, strengthen the legal and regulatory framework for customs in line with international standards and conventions, improve customs organizations' operational efficiency to facilitate trade and enhance revenue collection, and develop an effective mechanism for cooperation among the region's customs organizations. Classification Poverty Classification Environmental Assessment: Economic growth with key thematic areas including regional cooperation and good governance. Other Category C. Environmental impacts were reviewed, and no significant adverse environmental impacts were identified. The ADB Program Loans Loan Amounts and Terms It is proposed that ADB support the RTFCCP by providing a program loan to the Kyrgyz Republic in an amount of $15 million equivalent and a program loan to Tajikistan in an amount of $10 million equivalent. The loans will be from ADB s Special Fund resources and will have a term of 24 years and an interest charge of 1% per year during the grace period of 8 years and 1.5% per year for the remaining period.

7 iv Adjustment Costs Program Period and Tranching Executing Agencies Procurement and Disbursement Counterpart Funds Regional Technical Assistance The implementation of policy reforms will result in significant benefits from trade facilitation and economic growth, but will involve adjustment costs. The adjustment costs will be in the form of severance pay for retrenched customs officers and workers and associated social costs, costs related to the reorganization of the customs authorities, costs related to priority capital investment and capacity building of customs organization, and/or additional government budget allocation for effective customs operation and adequate remuneration schemes, and short-term revenue losses from tariff band adjustments under the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement in the Kyrgyz Republic and the adoption of a flat 5% tariff in Tajikistan. The total adjustment cost is estimated to be $28 million, including $15.5 million in the Kyrgyz Republic and $12.5 million in Tajikistan. The program will be implemented during a period of 5 years. The program loans will be released in two equal tranches in both countries. The first tranche will be released upon loan effectiveness. The release of the second tranche is expected before June 2004 in the Kyrgyz Republic and December 2004 in Tajikistan upon satisfactory completion of the Program s conditionalities. In the Kyrgyz Republic, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) will be the Executing Agency for the program loan, and the State Customs Inspectorate (SCI) will be the main implementing agency. In Tajikistan, the MOF will be the Executing Agency for the program loan, with the Ministry of State Revenues and Duties (MSRD) as the implementing agency. The loan proceeds will be utilized to finance the full foreign exchange costs of goods and services procured in and originating from ADB member countries, other than those specified in the list of ineligible items and those items financed by other multilateral and bilateral official sources. All procurements under the loan will be undertaken through normal commercial practices for the private sector or the Government s prescribed procurement procedures acceptable to ADB, with due consideration to economy and efficiency. The Borrowers will certify that the volume of eligible imports exceeds the amount of the projected disbursements under the ADB loan in a given period. ADB will have the right to audit the use of loan proceeds and to verify the accuracy of the Borrowers' certifications. The counterpart funds to be generated from the loan proceeds will be used to support the implementation of the Program and to finance the costs of structural adjustment. The proposed RETA amounting to $2,000,000 will address root causes and issues that affect cooperation at the regional level covering the CARs, PRC, and Mongolia. The key objective is to strengthen regional customs cooperation to establish efficient and effective customs systems to facilitate foreign trade and investment. The scope of the RETA will include the following:

8 v (i) (ii) (iii) Simplification and harmonization of customs documentation. This component will examine the core competence of the region's COs and key customs procedures (transit, end-use, import, export, economic zone, post-entry, etc.) as well as national initiatives for improving customs policies, and legal and institutional frameworks. Based on this, RETA will provide recommendations for improvement and simplification of customs procedures and will streamline organizational structure of COs to bring them in line with international best practices and standards throughout the region, and develop a time-bound action plan for implementation. The recommendations for revised practices and procedures will cover (a) harmonization of commodity description and coding systems; (b) WTO Customs Valuation Agreement; (c) WTO Rules of Origin Agreement; (d) adoption of standard and simplified procedures and practices under the revised Kyoto Convention; (e) single-window and one-stop solutions to expedite customs transactions; (f) harmonization of practices to encourage the development of efficient customs service infrastructure relating to improve enforcement of restrictions and prohibitions; and (g) international trade rules as well as customs integrity, particularly transparency. Development of border posts and facilities. The RETA will support the review and identification of posts for joint border processing and analysis of procedures and practices at those border crossings. Based on this review, the RETA will (a) develop a blueprint for simplified and harmonized procedures and documentation for border posts, (b) launch feasibility studies for joint border processing, (c) provide support for their implementation, and (d) develop agreements among customs that opt for the pilot project. Development of simplified transit systems. The RETA will help (a) assess how simplified transit systems might be introduced to facilitate transport movements of through-transit traffic while retaining appropriate controls; (b) provide advisory support to enhance the use of the transit-under-bond system (TIR carnet), under which trucks are sealed by customs upon departure and can cross several borders without further checks until they reach their final destinations; (c) formulate recommendations to improve the acceptability of the TIR carnet at border crossings and for removal of arbitrary transit fees on key transit routes, and develop modalities for improvement of communication and exchange of information between border-control agencies and to improve border-crossing facilities; and (d) evaluate the potential in the selected countries for upgrading their transport systems to multimodal means to facilitate transportation of goods and expedite border crossing.

9 vi (iv) (v) (vi) Data consolidation/information sharing and information and communication technology (ICT) development for customs operations. The RETA will help conduct needs assessment for ICT development and, based on it, prioritize investment requirements and determine best options for hardware and software from a cost-benefit perspective. The RETA will further develop a comprehensive and flexible technology plan for a customs clearance system and management information system, and migration plans to replace, reuse, or relocate existing assets and develop a model procedural manual for customs staff to use in daily operations involving ICT. To support information sharing, the RETA will conduct a survey of databases and the level of computerization in each country, and, based on that design a data exchange system taking national security needs into account. Also, the RETA will help develop protocols for compiling and utilizing advanced electronic commercial manifest data, working in partnership with industry, while coordinating activities on data and intelligence gathering. Development of risk management and post-entry audit. The RETA will assess current practices adopted for risk management by the national customs administrations; formulate benchmarks appropriate for each country, derived from international codes and sound practices (e.g., World Customs Organization, WTO, and International Chamber of Commerce guidelines, agreements, and protocols; revised Kyoto Convention); and streamline the examination of documents and merchandise at the time of entry. It will further support institution capacity building to adopt risk-based post-transit and post-entry compliance audits and develop computerized models to analyze the risk profiles of shipments by comparing their details with a set of indicators and categorizing them as either high-, medium-, or low-risk transactions; and establish standardized procedures on post entry audit according to risk profile of the shipments. Development of a regional intelligence system. The RETA will support (a) analysis of the nature and extent of illicit trade, including types of goods, production and trade volumes, sources and destinations, channels, and modes and methods of transport; (b) stock taking of existing regional programs for intelligence gathering and sharing; (c) evaluation of performance of the existing regional intelligence system, including capacities, effectiveness, equipment, intelligence sources, and adaptability; (d) a proposal for strengthening the regional intelligence system including funding, schedule, and human resource requirements, and (e) training of customs officers in tracking and tracing, etc.

10 vii (vii) Capacity building for regional customs organizations. This component of RETA will support a wide range of training programs covering topics such as the revised Kyoto Convention, customs legislation and implementing regulations, harmonization and streamlining of customs procedures, implications of WTO membership, post-release audit, risk management, risk assessment selectivity, developing a database, use of information technologies, electronic data exchange, institutionalizing cooperation mechanisms, control of illegal goods and trade facilitation and public-private sector partnership. The customs organizations of participating governments will be the implementing agencies. The Customs Cooperation Committee (CCC) will serve as the policy coordinating body to provide oversight for the RETA implementation, and technical work under the RETA will be coordinated by working groups and the task force set by CCC. Project Preparatory TAs The PPTAs are to assess the investment requirements for customs modernization and to support the implementation of the policy and institutional reforms envisaged under the RTFCCP, specifically to (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) conduct detailed due diligence and needs-assessment of ICT and infrastructure investment, including a detailed assessment of customs infrastructure facilities and of ICT hardware and software needs; and identify rational investment strategies from a cost-benefit perspective; perform technology audits; prioritize investment activities based on needs assessment of border infrastructure and equipment at priority border posts and processing points; develop the action plan for modernization; develop a comprehensive procedures manual for customs staff to use in daily operations; develop procedures for intelligence gathering and establishment of databases of risk profiles; and provide justification on investments based on cost-benefit analysis and financial and economic rate of returns. Amounts Executing Agencies Risks and Safeguards The total costs of the PPTAs are the same in Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, estimated to be equivalent to $600,000 each, of which ADB will finance $500,000 each equivalent from the Japan Special Fund covering the entire foreign exchange cost of $335,000 and $165,000 equivalent of the local currency cost. MOF in each country will be the Executing Agency representing the government with SCI of the Kyrgyz Republic and MSRD of Tajikistan as implementing agencies. The Program will be subject to various types of risks, including political, economic and financial, operational, and system risks. A carefully designed regional trade facilitation and customs reforms and cooperation program and its proper implementation through effective institutional arrangements will to a large extent manage and reduce these risks.

11 viii Political risks stem from (i) the resistance of vested and territorial interests of different government ministries; (ii) complexity in maintaining effective interagency coordination and collaboration; (iii) difficulties in maintaining smooth transition and public confidence in the restructuring and retrenchment process; and (iv) delays in preparing, reviewing, and introducing legislation. Political risks can be best mitigated by commitment and support from higher authorities of the respective governments and through the regional Ministerial Conference framework. In relation to ADB s policy dialogue, the Kyrgyz Government has established a high-level Commission for Customs Reform and Modernization, led by the Prime Minister, with members from all key government agencies as well as aid agencies, to act as the steering committee to ensure effective implementation of the Program. Similarly, the Government of Tajikistan has restructured fiscal agencies and established the new MSRD by combining the previously separate Customs Committee and Tax Committee to support the effective implementation of customs reforms. MSRD will be the focal point for strategizing and implementing customs reform policies. Economic and financial risks arise because (i) customs reform measures may not necessarily generate more collection in the short term, which would aggravate fiscal pressures; and (ii) public finance stress may crowd out necessary investment for customs modernization. In addition, price fluctuations in the major export commodities of these countries may pose significant difficulties and prompt governments to delay customs reform. While the short-term economic and financial risks can be mitigated through program loan support, the broader reform agenda of public finance, and streamlining of governance being supported by the Program will have a positive impact on foreign investment flows. Operational and system risks arise from (i) lack of institutional capability in the customs service in implementing the customs reform programs, (ii) lack of effective control in carrying out investment activities for customs modernization, (iii) weak commitment to regional cooperation in developing mechanisms and agreements to facilitate trade flows, and (iv) reluctance across borders to share data and information or other intelligence to combat and curtail smuggling. These risks are being mitigated by the establishment of a project implementation system, a carefully designed regional TA program, and development of the regional cooperation mechanism supported by ADB.

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13 I. THE PROPOSAL 1. I submit for your approval the following report and recommendation on proposed assistance for the Regional Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation Program (RTFCCP). The RTFCCP, an integral component of the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) overall regional economic cooperation program for the East and Central Asia (ECA) 1 region, includes (i) program loans to Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan; and (ii) project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA) to Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan for preparing the Customs Modernization and Infrastructure Development Project; and (iii) regional technical assistance (RETA) for Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation. 2 If the Board approves the proposed program loans and RETA, I, acting under the authority delegated to me by the Board, will approve the proposed PPTAs. Subject to full compliance with the reform agendas of the programs, work on PPTAs, and satisfactory regional policy dialogue in trade facilitation, ADB will continue to promote regional trade facilitation and customs reforms across the ECA region through regional and country specific interventions. II. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 2. Traditionally in the Central Asian republics (CARs), the industrial and trade structure was inward oriented to serve the countrywide needs of the former Soviet Union (FSU). To meet the requirements of its population, the FSU adopted production and price controls and nurtured them through the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon) 3 trading arrangement and subsidized transport system, which carried goods from one end to the other without commercial considerations. However, this production and trading structure base was not sustainable in the post-soviet era, as the captive domestic markets within the FSU were lost and no longer economical. The CARs experienced a significant shrinkage in output and trade after independence in The transition of ECA countries to market economies has opened up a new era of collaboration and provided opportunities for developing mutually beneficial economic relations between them. They are now positioning themselves to reestablish their historical economic and trade relationships and are looking at outside markets to foster new trading arrangements mutually beneficial to the region, including with the People s Republic of China (PRC), Mongolia, and South Asia. Although internal economic imbalances and political difficulties have had their impact on the evolution of economic and trade relations in the post-soviet era, the region continues to enjoy a degree of economic interdependence in production, given resource diversity. The challenge the region faces is how to reorient its industrial production structure from serving noncommercial objectives to be in line with comparative advantages. International trade, based on comparative advantage and market forces, would promote efficient resource allocation, productivity, and growth of industry sector, which is a necessary condition for long-term and sustainable poverty reduction. 4. To achieve industrial and trade growth and diversity, the ECA region is increasingly recognizing the merits and advantages of strengthening the incentive framework and infrastructure to facilitate effective integration into the world trading system. ADB s strategy for regional cooperation gives high priority to trade, transport, and energy (para. 7). A key theme of the RTFCCP is to reduce trade barriers between the CARs; Xinjiang, PRC; and Mongolia. The RTFCCP scope extends to an aggregate population of 85.2 million and a gross domestic product (GDP) of $52.3 billion. The ECA countries can reach markets in inland PRC through the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in the 1 ECA comprises Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of the People s Republic of China. 2 The PPTAs were listed in ADB Business Opportunities on 18 April 2002, and the RETA was listed on 26 June Comecon, now defunct, covered Bulgaria, the former Czechoslovakia, FSU, former German Democratic Republic (East Germany), Hungary, Mongolia, Poland, and Romania. Cuba and Vietnam also held full membership.

14 2 east, the Russian Federation to the north, Europe to the west, and the subcontinent to the south. The RTFCCP group of countries includes (i) the least developed, Kyrgyz Republic (which opted to liberalize its economy in 1994) and Tajikistan (which suffered major setbacks because of civil war until 1996) both of which exhibit high poverty incidence; (ii) Kazakhstan, which is the size of Europe, has a population of 15.7 million and a GDP of $18.3 billion, and is the most resource rich; (iii) Uzbekistan, with a relatively larger population (25 million) and production close to $13 billion, which has retained trade and investment protectionism; though a late starter, since 2001 Uzbekistan has adopted market-oriented reforms and has begun a tariff rationalization program; (iv) (v) Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, with a combined population of 13 million, which have been slower reformers but which have a strong energy resource base and a critical geographic location for oil and gas pipelines extending south to the Persian Gulf and west via Turkey to the Mediterranean; and Mongolia, with a population of 2.5 million and a GDP of $1 billion, which is isolated, has the most difficult terrain, and has its small population spread over a large land area. 5. Following the abolishment of Comecon, several efforts were launched by the CARs to nurture regional trade linkages and cooperation. These included the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States Customs Union (CIS-CU) comprising the CIS countries, 4 and the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Russian Federation, and Belarus. In parallel, most ECA members have bilateral agreements among themselves and with Russia and PRC. 5 These trade agreements lack conformity with international treaties and agreements, as most of the countries have yet to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). 6 These trading arrangements and the implementation of bilateral agreements have created new trade distortions and have not resulted in tangible results in trade facilitation. For instance, trade between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan decreased by more than half between 1995 and 2000, though trade between Kazakhstan and the other CARs has remained relatively stable. The trade agreements were by and large driven by the Russian Federation s considerations of strategic security priorities rather than by economic and social goals. CIS-CU has been ineffective because of its large coverage, and ECU, though smaller, is not a representative body for the CARs interests, since it excludes some of the CARs. None of these bodies has explored trade diversion outside the CIS. 6. Overall, the trade performance of the region, excluding the PRC, has lagged. Besides a low level of trade flows, there is limited inter- and intra-regional trade. This is largely because of the following factors: (i) (ii) Narrow export base. Within the CARs, there is a high degree of export concentration (see para. 14 and Table 1). Over 80% of CAR exports constitute cotton, energy products, and a few minerals that face sharp international price volatility. New export products have tended to be in the capital-intensive extractive industry, which contributes little to employment and poverty reduction. Lack of trade diversification. Being major producers of raw materials, 7 CAR trade and transit links served to move oil and gas (through pipelines) and other products at 4 CIS includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. 5 The regional cooperation arrangement Shanghai 5 started in 1996 among PRC, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Russian Federation, and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined the annual summit as an observer in 2000 and as a full member since Only PRC, Kyrgyz Republic, and Mongolia have joined WTO. 7 While Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have few exploitable resources, Uzbekistan is a major supplier of cotton, Turkmenistan of natural gas, and Kazakhstan of grain, and a variety of mineral and energy resources.

15 3 (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) unrealistic low prices to the FSU. These old trade patterns and routes largely remain. But the bulk of trade is limited to primarily one bloc of countries and confined to one product. Further more, though exports from Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to Western Europe have grown but they are confined to gold and aluminum, respectively. Infrastructure bottlenecks. Infrastructure constraints, both internal and external, are high. Internally, the existing infrastructure has been poorly maintained because of financing constraints. On the external front, the CARs are landlocked, are distant from principal markets, and have weak transit systems. Substantial efforts are under way to develop efficient transport corridors, supported by external assistance agencies (detailed in para. 18). Market access. While the region enjoys most favored nation status and benefits from the general system of preferences in developed markets, the CARs are facing aggressive competition from large developing countries and barriers to entry into developed markets. Preferential trade agreement among the region is unlikely to have the desired impact particularly in small open economies. Weak border and transit facilities. Although there are currently 333 border posts in the six CARs and another 16 posts along Xinjiang s border with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, these are inadequately equipped. The traffic flows have not often been a consideration in the development of transport corridors and the trade interest. Coordination among transport and customs authorities is quite weak also. While transit goods shipped through freight forwarders, that are registered with the International Road Transportation Union (IRU) seem to pass through borders, the goods traded within the region experience difficulties. Transit rights and fees, high freight rates, and discriminative regulations on foreign trucks add to the cost of trading. In the absence of adequate controls, smuggling and unofficial transactions of goods and money have been pervasive. Weak institutional support. Deficiencies exist in trade-related institutions including customs organizations (COs), financial institutions, marketing and standards organizations, and transport and telecommunication authorities. 7. Recognizing these constraints, the region is keen to foster economic alliances in the fields of infrastructure, trade, and investment. In 1997, ADB initiated the regional economic cooperation program in ECA area with the overall objective of promoting economic growth and reducing poverty. This program seeks to address the long-term development challenge facing transition economies of ECA. Operationally, the ADB regional economic cooperation program has grown in breadth and depth. On the one hand, this program has a mutually reinforcing three-pronged sector thrust involving the (i) development of transport to remove bottlenecks, (ii) cooperation in the energy sector to encourage rational use of vital resources, and (iii) trade facilitation to promote market integration both within the region and with the outside world. On the other hand, ADB has synchronized its countryspecific interventions (paras ) to reinforce the regional cooperation program, and coordinated efforts on both these fronts facilitate synergies and more effective integration of individual countries into the world economy. 8. Besides size differences and geographical diversity, the countries in region are at different stages of development, with only three (PRC, Kyrgyz Republic, and Mongolia) having acceded to WTO, though all are members of the World Customs Organization (WCO) and plan to accede to the Revised Kyoto Convention. 8 There are potential benefits from all countries adopting harmonized legal and regulatory frameworks for trade, investment, customs, physio-sanitary standards, and intellectual property rights. Irrespective of membership status, these economies (except Uzbekistan) have adopted open trade and industrial regimes, but all need support to conform to WTO and WCO guidelines and principles. Adoption of international standards and best practices cannot be achieved 8 The International Convention on Simplification and Harmonization of Customs Procedures of 1973 as revised in June 1999.

16 4 without adequate resource capacities and development of an adequate institutional setup that are dependent on each country's on overall political commitment and the pace of public sector governance reforms. 9. Trade facilitation and customs modernization assumed new significance after the 11 September 2001 events, calling for better controls and vigilance border flows and transactions and underscoring the need for curbing illegal trade, smuggling, drug and arms trafficking, and money laundering. 10. There are good prospects to encourage mutually beneficial cooperation among PRC, Central Asia, and Mongolia. In 2000, the PRC unveiled its Go-West strategy, which represents a shift in focus of development from coastal areas to the country s inland and western regions, including the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The strategy aims to reduce the development gap between the coastal and other regions through, inter alia, investments in both infrastructure and human resources. For the PRC to achieve better results with this strategy, it is keen to foster close cooperation with the CARs and Mongolia. 11. ADB has worked steadily with its ECA members to develop a common understanding of the objectives and scope of the regional economic cooperation program (paras ). This program has been endorsed by senior officials at the Ministerial Conference on Central Asia Economic Cooperation held in Manila in March 2002 and at the ADB Annual Meeting in Shanghai in May These meetings have resulted in broad understandings that trade promotion requires sound infrastructure, simple and transparent policies and procedures; and sound institutions, in particular modern customs systems and border facilities. To steer these programs, the ministers and other senior representation have endorsed the establishment of the Customs Cooperation Committee (CCC). ADB organized two meetings of senior customs officials in January and August 2002; the participants agreed on the mandate for CCC and the need for mutual cooperation in trade facilitation and customs coordination that will be financed and supported by ADB (paras ). 12. In parallel with these initiatives, ADB has developed country-specific support that aims to target the least developed countries facing geographic limitations, high poverty incidence, vulnerable economic conditions, and the weakest state of governance and institutional development, which together have held back development and trade. Based on these criteria and considerations, ADB has been engaged in policy dialogue since 2000 with Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to promote trade facilitation and customs reform and modernization. Given their fiscal and external account vulnerabilities, both economies relied on external borrowings to meet their financing requirements, which contributed to significant debt accumulation. By mid 2001, external debt was close to 110% of GDP in the Kyrgyz Republic and 97% of GDP in Tajikistan, and the debt service ratios to revenue are expected to exceed the crisis threshold by The Kyrgyz Republic rescheduled about $99 million in debt 9 in March 2002 with the Paris Club, and debt service due to Paris Club creditors during has been reduced from $101 million to $5.6 million. As a result of these negotiations, the financing gap for has thus been reduced from $221.2 million to $125.8 million. Tajikistan also needs to reschedule its debt. 10 So far, the Government has reached an agreement with the Russian Federation on debt reduction of $49.9 million and plans to develop a privatization program to sell off assets and use the proceeds exclusively for debt reduction. The two governments have been utilizing the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) 11 of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which sets ceilings on public investment programs and external borrowings. 9 This covers principal and interest falling due from December 2001 to December Large creditors are Russian Federation ($330 million of $1.3 billion), Uzbekistan ($130 million), and international financial institutions. 11 In February 2002, IMF recalled two tranches under the PRGF to Tajikistan due to the Government s misreporting of external arrears. As a result, IMF has put Tajikistan under a Staff Monitoring Program and launched a mission in July 2002 to discuss a new PRFG.

17 5 13. Besides the programs in Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, in 2002 Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan requested support for trade policy review, aimed to access the state of policy, legal and regulatory framework of trade and investment. These reviews will be launched as part of overall regional economic and sector work. III. THE SECTOR A. Sector Description and Performance 14. CCC formed as a part of the RTFCCP, includes the heads of the COs of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan; Kyrgyz Republic; Mongolia, Tajikistan; Turkmenistan; Uzbekistan; and Xinjiang, PRC. Table 1 provides key trade indicators. Of the CARs, Tajikistan followed by the Kyrgyz Republic have the lowest level of trade on a per capita basis. The CARs trade mostly within the FSU (ranging from 25% to 51%). The concentration ratios both in terms of export commodities and destinations are high. Almost 80% of CAR exports constitute primary products: oil, gas, electricity, ferrous and nonferrous metals, cotton, and textiles. Russia is often the most important trading partner for most of these countries. Table 1: East and Central Asia: Selected Trade Indicators a Item Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Xinjiang, Tajikistan Uzbekistan Republic PRC Total trade ($ million) 1,965 13,976 1, ,212 1,939 Trade with FSU 20% 35.4% 42.9% 51.2% 25% n/a of which Russia 15.7% 26.5% 17.1% 10.7% 13.6% n/a Top 3 exporting products/total exports 80% 67.5% 71.3% 80.4% 83% n/a Top 3 export destinations/total 50% 44.1% 59.6% 68.2% 44.4% n/a exports Top 3 import products/total imports 27.4% 22.5% 32.6% 83% 51.2% n/a Top 3 import markets/total imports 43.6% 54% 39.2% 56.4% 35.6% n/a GNP/capita ($) 610 1, Population (million) Trade per capita ($) Trade/GNP 40% 74.8% 93.1% 56.5% 43.2% 13.4% FSU = former Soviet Union, GNP = gross national product, PRC = People's Republic of China. a Export and import statistics are for 1999, total trade statistics are for 2000 and GNP and population statistics are for Sources: Asian Development Bank Key Indicators. Manila, and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 2001, Trade and Development Report. Geneva. 15. After independence, the CARs had to introduce domestic currencies, set up core infrastructure for trade policy and its implementation, and establish COs at the national level to facilitate the flow of goods and customs clearance, and to collect taxes on imports. Being a few years old, these COs have yet to develop their core infrastructure, capacities, and governance. Most lack an effective organizational structure, modern equipment and technology, and skilled professional staff. The incentive framework for customs officers is weak, given the low salaries paid. The customs codes and supportive regulations are not consistent with international guidelines and have often been subject to change. Despite some bilateral or other trading arrangements, COs do not utilize harmonized procedures and standardized custom documents for transit, and tend to levy arbitrary fees and charges on transshipments. The processes of customs clearance do not comply with international procedures and standards. The national

18 6 documentation is complex and in most cases, full inspection applies to each shipment. The COs in the region do not follow systematic and regular information sharing. 16. Of all the regional COs, Kazakhstan's and Uzbekistan's have the largest force and an elaborate development program and have adopted a harmonized system of commodity codes and the WTO Valuation Code. Kazakhstan customs has made investments in customs modernization and has developed a close relationship with the Kyrgyz Republic, less so with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyz Republic's and Tajikistan's COs are the most underdeveloped and are the least efficient as confirmed by the flow of trade volume per customs staff (Table 2). While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have made large investments in computer networks and training facilities, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan only have a number of isolated computers used for administrative purposes. Table 2: East and Central Asia: Key Indicators of Customs a Item Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Xinjiang, Tajikistan Uzbekistan Republic PRC State revenue ($ million) 2, n/a 864 Customs revenue ($ million) n/a 174 % of state revenue collected by customs 13.3% 28.8% 23% n/a n/a b Customs staff 4,577 1,235 1,447 3, # of regional offices # of clearance checkpoints # of border posts/crossings Revenue collected/ customs staff ($) 70,351 61,961 15,480 n/a 261,961 Total trade volume/customs staff 3,053, , ,559 1,762,433 2,906,327 IT development and training in customs 95 LANs, 79 servers, 1499 workstations, 79 satellite ground stations, and 27 radio modems LAN in headquarters, 2 servers, 120 computers 70 computers 600 computers and 4 training centers IT = information technology, LAN = local area network, PRC = People's Republic of China. a State revenue and customs revenue data for Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are for Others are for b Customs revenue is part of the Central Government revenue in PRC. Sources: Asian Development Bank Sector of Customs Study in the Central Asian Region. Manila. 411 computers, 16 servers, and a training center 17. The Xinjiang Autonomous Region of the PRC has a mature CO and adequate funding, but it needs to further gear itself to cope with the expanding trade, especially with the CARs, with which it has sporadic interaction. PRC customs is a member of most international customs organizations; it has representation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Greater Mekong Region etc. While there are bilateral and multilateral economic agreements between the PRC and the CARs, no specific customs agreements are being effectively enforced. 18. Following the independence of the CARs, new international borders were drawn up, and the original transportation network was segmented. Trade is critically dependent on the transportation corridors, and these need to be rehabilitated and upgraded. Some regional transport and transit policy issues are being addressed under the European Union (EU)-sponsored Transport Corridor Europe- Central Asia (TRACECA). Project aimed at developing an east-west transport network south of the

19 Russian Federation, 12 and the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) Silk Road Area Development Project. In addition, ADB has been supporting rehabilitation of several roads and railways in the CARs 13 to facilitate regional transport, and has initiated RETA for a feasibility study of the road and railways links from Uzbekistan through Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to the Xinjiang Autonomous Region. 14 The development of transport corridors supports the RTFCCP. Among others, the RTFCCP will seek to initiate more dialogue on the inadequacies of cross border facilities, entry and transit procedures, restrictions and charges, inconsistent axle load limits and control, etc. that have served as trade barriers. B. Issues and Opportunities Weak Institutional Capacities and Governance of Customs 19. Given the historical context and the recent establishment of COs in the CARs, most agencies are young and have limited experience in international trade and customs operations. The COs have significant economic, fiscal, and social obligations, as they need to promote trade facilitation, generate revenues, and fight smuggling and drug trafficking. Given the lack of policy direction, motivation, and resources, the COs have not performed these functions effectively. The principal common issue that runs across all these COs is weak governance. Despite their significant role and function, they lack strategic vision, direction, transparency, and accountability; have low budgets that impede ability to modernize; lack profession skills; have inadequate incentive systems; and have yet to conform to the emerging guidelines and principles of customs operations of WCO and WTO. 20. Of all the regional COs, the Kyrgyz Republic s State Customs Inspectorate (SCI) under the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and former Customs Committee (CC) 16 in Tajikistan has more serious problems. Both were set up in The staff strength of SCI is 1,235, and customs staff of the Ministry of State Revenues and Duties (MSRD) 1,500, with the former having 15 regional offices, while the latter has 5 regional offices. SCI is in charge of 15 processing centers and 64 border posts, and MSRD oversees 28 border posts and 26 clearance points. Of these, only a small number of posts account for the bulk of processing. Annually, SCI processes 60,000 customs declarations manually. The time-consuming customs processing procedures and lack of transparency hamper trade and raise the costs of doing business. The average salary at both COs is about $40 per month. Though in line with the civil service at large, it is too low to attract and retain qualified and capable staff. In 2000, the turnover of SCI staff was estimated at 13.5%, an indication of the difficulty of developing a professional and effective customs organizations. 21. In 2001, government budget allocation for the COs in Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan were close to $1.1 million and $260,000, respectively. Both COs are also allowed to collect the user fee of 0.15% from customs clearances, which generated close to Som70 million ($1.46 million) in Kyrgyz Republic and TJS5 million ($1.8 million) in Tajikistan. These budgets largely finance staff remuneration or limited operational expenses and cannot finance growing investment requirements. The former CC headquarters of Tajikistan did not segregate functions effectively, and all activities related to operations, human resources, and budget were carried out by the Control Department TRACECA covers Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. 13 ADB has supported rehabilitation of regional roads and railways including Loan 1774-KAZ: Almaty Bishkek Regional Road Rehabilitation, Loan 1444-KGZ: Road Rehabilitation, Loan 1630-KGZ: Second Road Rehabilitation, Loan 1775-KGZ: Almaty Bishkek Regional Road Rehabilitation, Loan 1853-KGZ: Third Road Rehabilitation, Loan 1819-TAJ: Road Rehabilitation, Loan 1631-UZB: Railway Rehabilitation and Loan 1773-UZB: Railway Modernization. 14 ADB Technical Assistance for Regional Cooperation Transport Project in Central Asia. Manila. 15 The problems and constraints analysis (problem tree) is presented in Appendix CC was an independent agency until January 2002, when it and the Tax Committee were combined to form the Ministry of State Revenues and Duties.

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