MASON-DIXON MISSISSIPPI POLL

Transcription

1 MASON-DIXON MISSISSIPPI POLL APRIL 2018 PART II Polling in Mississippi since 1987 FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, April 24, 2018 Copyright

2 HOOD STILL HOLDING EARLY LEAD OVER REEVES FOR 2019 Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood continues to hold a slight lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves in a potential 2019 election matchup for governor. Statewide, 44% of voters currently support Hood, while 39% back Reeves and 17% are undecided GOVERNOR'S RACE 17% 39% 44% HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED This is similar to the advantage Hood had over Reeves in December GOVERNOR VOTE HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED December % 37% 20% April % 39% 17% Hood runs strong among women (49%-37%), with black voters (84%-4%), those under the age of 50 (45%-36%) and those who identify as Democrats (82%-7%). He also leads among Independents (41%-33%). Reeves is ahead with men (41%-38%), whites (57%-24%), and Republicans (71%- 12%). 2

3 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Jim Hood 39% 11% 37% 13% Tate Reeves 29% 13% 38% 20% 3

4 QUESTION: If the 2019 general election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Jim Hood, the Democrat and Tate Reeves, the Republican? HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED STATE 44% 39% 17% REGION HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED Northern Mississippi 39% 44% 17% The Delta 66% 14% 20% Eastern Mississippi 39% 46% 15% Jackson Metro 47% 38% 15% Southern Mississippi 37% 46% 17% Gulf Coast 35% 46% 19% SEX HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED Men 38% 41% 21% Women 49% 37% 14% AGE HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED <50 45% 36% 19% % 41% 16% RACE HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED White 24% 57% 19% Black 84% 4% 12% PARTY IDENTIFICATION HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED Democrat 82% 7% 11% Republican 12% 71% 17% Independent 41% 33% 26% 4

5 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from April 12 through April 14, A total of 625 registered Mississippi voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they vote regularly in state elections. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Mississippi voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 5

6 DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Democrat 220 (35%) Republican 251 (40%) Independent or Other 154 (25%) AGE: (17%) (28%) (29%) (25%) Refused 6 (1%) RACE: White/Caucasian 405 (65%) Black/African American 208 (33%) Other/Refused 12 (2%) SEX: Male 298 (48%) Female 327 (52%) REGION: Northern Mississippi 130 (21%) The Delta 80 (13%) Eastern Mississippi 100 (16%) Jackson Metro 120 (19%) Southern Mississippi 100 (16%) Gulf Coast 95 (15%) 6

7 MISSISSIPPI POLL REGIONS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in DeSoto, Marshall, Yalobusha, Lafayette, Calhoun, Pontotoc, Chickasaw, Monroe, Itawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Union, Benton, Tippah, Alcorn and Tishomingo counties. THE DELTA: Voters in Tate, Panola, Coahoma, Tunica, Quitman, Bolivar, Tallahatchie, Sunflower, Leflore, Grenada, Carroll, Holmes, Humphreys, Washington, Sharkey, Yazoo, Issaquena and Warren counties. EASTERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha, Choctaw, Webster, Montgomery, Attala, Leake, Scott, Smith, Jasper, Clark, Newton, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Kemper, Winston and Noxubee counties. JACKSON METRO: Voters in Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Copiah and Simpson counties. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in Claiborne, Jefferson, Adams, Wilkinson, Franklin, Amite, Lincoln, Pike, Lawrence, Walthall, Jefferson Davis, Marion, Covington, Jones, Wayne, Lamar, Forrest, Perry, Greene, George, Pearl River and Stone counties. GULF COAST: Voters in Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties. 7