Pakistan-India Relations

Transcription

1 Pakistan-India Relations DR. RUKHSANA QAMBER PRESIDENT IRS

2 Summary Recent developments in Indian foreign relations India Occupied Kashmir (IOK) Developments in Pak-India relations Chances of resuming the peace process What do 2019 Indian Elections have in store for us?

3 Recent Developments in Indian Foreign Relations Modi held meetings with President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia. In both, he sought to give India s foreign policy a modicum of neutrality vis-à-vis big Asian powers and the U.S. New Delhi has simultaneously focused on building its strategic relationship with the U.S.

4 India and the U.S. Trump calls developing a strategic partnership with India a "critical part" of its South Asia policy. India and the U.S. are aiming to further deepen operational cooperation in the resource-rich IndoPacific region where China has been trying to spread its influence. The issue was discussed extensively during the third round of the India-US Maritime Security Dialogue which took place in Goa from April 30 to May 1. India has refused to stop trade cooperation with Iran despite U.S. sanctions with Indian; MEA saying that India is bound by UN sanctions not U.S.

5 India Occupied Kashmir (IOK) IOK is more violent are politically divided than ever.

6 Political Polarization and Indigenous Uprising The last State Assembly election results indicate greater political polarization in IOK. All BJP seats were won from the Jammu region while all PDP seats were won from the Valley. Indian security forces have killed more than 100 people in IOK so far in The murder of 8 ears old Asifa in IOK gives momentum to the protests. The protests and violence in IOK refuse to die down, especially since the killing of young Kashmiri leader Burhan Wani in July Indian media now recognizes that the home-grown indigenous uprising is a new phenomenon in Kashmir s long struggle against Indian occupation. Protests persist despite large-scale development activity by the BJP in IOK on the one hand and the use of excessive force like use of pellet guns and shooting at faces on the other. Ten Kashmiris, among them a university professor, were shot dead by Indian forces during a clash and protests on May 6.

7 Ceasefire Violations across LoC Ceasefire violations continue across the LoC that was largely holding in place for about 10 years, 2003 to Violations intensified in October 2016 after India claimed to have carried out surgical strikes on the alleged "terror launch pads along the LoC" in AJK. Pakistan raised this issue several times with India and at the UN but to no avail. Last evening s DGMOs hotline agreement on ceasefire is a positive development.

8 Positive Pak-India relations India has recently shown willingness to normalize relations with Pakistan. At the official level, Indian government has uttered nothing; however, quiet meetings between the NSAs of the two countries have taken place. This is in the context of Chief of Pakistan Army Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa having gone on record to suggest that a peace move with India was necessary. India s willingness should also be seen in the context of India s desire to join the OIC as an observer through a reform proposal initiated by Bangladesh at the OIC.

9 Jab seema par janaze uth rahe hon, to baatcheet ki awaaz acchi nahi lagti Indian MEA Sushma Swaraj (May 28) Although there have been some positive signs lately, signs for resumption of dialogue appear weak with Kashmir burning, continuing cross-loc ceasefire violations, attention India is receiving at the world stage, Indian insistence on prioritizing the issue of terrorism in the dialogue, and upcoming general elections in both Pakistan and India. The recent inauguration of controversial Kishnganga Hydropower project is one example of Indian Water Aggression.

10 Overall, the Pakistan-India peace process being on hold until the upcoming national elections in the two countries, we must understand what could be the likely political dispensation in India post-2019 elections.

11 Two Questions on Indian General Elections 2019 What do political signs indicate about the prospects of NDA (the BJP-led coalition) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections? What do political signs suggest about the prospects of UPA (the Congress-led coalition) presenting a challenge to BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections?

12 Signs of BJP s Health The BJP has won State Assembly elections in the important states of UP, Assam, and Gujarat, and has performed satisfactorily in some other states. The BJP has even won State Assembly elections in the northeastern state of Tripura where Hindutva politics do not resonate with the local population. The BJP has targeted this region carefully. While downplaying its Hindutva card, it has stressed job creation, as unemployment ratio in Tripura has touched 22 percent. Narendra Modi successfully projects himself as a commoner. BJP is also benefitting from the weak and fragmented opposition.

13 Are there any personalities at the national scene in India who could challenge Modi?

14 Rahul Gandhi (Indian National Congress) at the national level Gandhi has proved to be a weak political leader. He is also stigmatized by the label of dynastic politics.

15 Nitish Kumar (Janata Dal United) in Bihar Kumar threatened BJP by forging a Grand Alliance of all opposition parties against it in Bihar and winning the State Assembly election but later he tried to gather BJP support against Lalu Prasad Yadav of RJD, his main contender in the State.

16 Mamata Banerjee (All India Trinamool Congress) in West Bengal Banerjee has won the State Assembly elections in West Bengal twice and could be a national level aspirant with the support of Nitish Kumar. Such jockeying for national level role could go in favor of Modi and possibly get him re-elected.

17 Recent comeback by Congress? In the state of Karnataka, the BJP could neither win simple majority nor form a coalition government after the recently held State Assembly elections. Congress, with the support of Janata DalSeclar (JD-S), formed a coalition government in the state, even though BJP was still the largest party in the elections. This may be seen as the dissipation of the Modi Wave, however:

18 There are challenges In the numbers game, BJP is still far ahead of INC. While INC has bagged 78 seats, BJP has won 104. INC s show is much worse than its 2013 performance, wherein it had won 121 seats and had simple majority in the 224-member assembly against only 39 by BJP. In comparative terms, BJP has performed much better than INC is having problems in adjustment of portfolios with its ally JD-S.

19 The BJP could face a challenge from regional political parties in the following 11 states/territories By the National Conference in IOK By the Left in Kerala By the Samajdwadi Party and the BSP in UP By the BJD in Odisha By the AITC in West Bengal By the JDU and RJD in Bihar By the AAP in Punjab and Delhi By the DMK in Tamil Nadu By the TRS in Telangana By the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh

20 The Numbers Game The states mentioned in the previous slide account for 285 Lok Sabha seats, three more than what the BJP won in Of these seats, non-bjp and non-congress parties have only won 98 seats in the current Lok Sabha Together, these parties had 26 percent of the votes in 2014 five points less than the BJP. If these parties put up a united fight with support from the Congress, they may be able to increase both their vote shares and their seats won. Having said all this, however, there is still a big gap between theory and implementation.

21 Dynamics of Regional Politics: UP The Samajwadi Party (SP) of Akilesh Yadhav, the son of Mulayem Singh Yadhav, draws support mainly from the Yadhavs. The BSP draws its support from its Bahujan/Dalit support base. It has ruled the state for two terms in the past, but did not return a single candidate to the Lok Sabha in 2014 General Election. It still remains the third largest political party by voter support. UP has a large Muslim population but it is geographically dispersed and do not form majority in any district of UP.

22 Further Research 1 If Indians are calling this phase of uprising in IOK different from anything they ve seen in the past, how should Pakistan be looking at it? How would different Indian approaches to handling the problem in IOK shape it? Is India getting stronger or weaker at the international level? How long is Indo-U.S. bonhomie likely to last?

23 Further Research 2 Is Modi coming to power again? If yes, how strong would he be at the Center and what would his regional policy look like in the second term? What are the voting patterns in different parts and among different ethnic, linguistic, caste, and religious communities in India and how are they determined? In what ways does regional politics shape national politics in India? Would India be better off with powerful regional political parties or otherwise? Has Hindutva nationalism trumped regionalism in Indian politics? How do personalities shape the Indian political scene? How do regional political parties shape Indian foreign policy?

24 Thank you! Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad