Research at RSIS. Issue 4 - March 2016

Transcription

1 Research at RSIS Issue 4 - March 2016

2 Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)

3 War in the Global Village: Transnational Challenges and the Struggle for Freedom of Action Dr Pascal Vennesson Professor This book project is about the effects of transnational relations on the character of war. It is a study of state and non-state actors changing ability to wage war in their transnationalised environment from the early 1990s until the first decade of the 21 st century. I explore why and how military prowess is affected by a global milieu refracted by a number of transnational actors, ideas and practices that apparently have little to do with force traditionally understood. Why and how does war-making change if at all under the influence of its transnational environment? Why and how do transnational actors and ideas shape or alter political leaders and strategic planners freedom of action? theme region Global Maritime Security and Sea Lines of Communication Research Paper Ms Jane Chan Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Maritime Security Programme Mr Collin Koh Associate Research Fellow The programme collaborates with the Information Fusion Centre (IFC) to work on topical maritime security issues relating to Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) and chokepoints within IFC areas of interest. The project aims to better understand the threats and challenges in regional waters. It will consider national, regional and inter-regional maritime law enforcement capacity, best practices and cooperation. Maritime Security region South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN Future Maritime Security Environment Policy Paper and Workshop Dr Sam Bateman Senior Fellow and Adviser to the Maritime Security Programme Ms Jane Chan Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Maritime Security Programme The study will identify likely developments in the maritime security environment of Asia over the next decade, including shifts in the maritime balance of power and particular threats and challenges in the maritime domain. The study will take a comprehensive view of security, and will include issues such as the trends with international shipping, environmental protection and resource scarcity. The overall objective will be to identify the implications of these developments for the region and for Singapore. The geographical scope for the study will be the Indo-Pacific region. Maritime Security / Conflict and Stability region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Indian Ocean Region Start : 01/01/2011 Duration: Multi-year Start : 01/04/2012 Duration: Multi-year Start : 01/04/2014 Duration: Multi-year

4 Japanese Security Policy: Military Crises, Threat Inflation and Security Policy Development Dr Bhubhindar Singh Associate Professor and Coordinator of the Regional Security Architecture Programme One of the most critical changes to Japan s post-cold War security policy has been the incorporation of the Japanese military, known as the Self-Defence Force (SDF), as a legitimate and important tool in its security policy practice. It has developed new roles both outside and within the U.S.-Japan alliance to contribute to regional/ international security. The question is how has the Japanese security policymaking elite been able to bring about this critical change to the security policy practice in light of the domestic social and legal constraints that have traditionally prevented the expansion of Japan s security role, in military terms, in regional and international affairs. This research introduces external military crises as a critical cause of this change in Japanese security policy. It argues that the security policymaking elite constructed or inflated elements of threat from an external military crisis as directly affecting both the international environment and Japan s national security. This process allowed the security policymaking elite to circumvent the social and legal limitations and fulfil its role of a responsible and engaged actor in regional/international security. This study will focus on all military crises faced by Japan in the post-cold War period. From Subic Bay to Changi: Understanding the Relocation of United States Forces from the Philippines to Singapore ( ) Dr Daniel Chua Wei Boon Research Fellow This is a historical research that examines the political and strategic considerations behind the closure of American bases in Subic Bay, the Philippines (1992), and the subsequent establishment of COMLOG WESTPAC in Singapore. By studying declassified diplomatic documents from archives in the U.S., Australia, Singapore and the Philippines, as well as interviewing former diplomats, this project attempts to provide deeper understanding of the principles and thinking behind decisions made by the three governments in relation to the episode. theme U.S. Military Withdrawal and Philippine Decolonisation, Dr Daniel Chua Wei Boon Research Fellow This project studies the events leading to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Philippines in Adopting a historical approach, this research aims to produce an analysis where themes such as U.S. alliances in the Asia Pacific, decolonisation and the ending of the Cold War intersect. region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN International Politics and Security / Maritime Security region East Asia and Asia Start : 01/06/2014 Duration: 162 weeks Start : 01/01/2015 Duration: 96 weeks Start : 01/01/2015 Duration: 96 weeks

5 India and the Major Powers Dr Rajesh Basrur Professor and Coordinator of the South Asia Programme The rise of Narendra Modi is widely held to represent the triumph of the Hindu right. However, this paper argues that there is no specifically Hindu content in Modi s foreign policy toward the major powers. More broadly, the paper argues that the degree of difference between Modi s government and the preceding regime under Manmohan Singh is marginal. This paper is part of a project on India under Narendra Modi organised by the University of Oxford and Boston University. region South Asia Asian Navy Watch Research Paper and Workshop Prof Geoffrey Till Visiting Professor Mr Collin Koh Associate Research Fellow This project is a continuation of a multi-year project that studies naval modernisation and its consequences in Southeast Asia. It is currently focusing on Problems and Prospects of Submarine Acquisition in the Region. Maritime Security region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN The Future of the ADMM/ADMM-Plus and Defence Diplomacy in the Asia Pacific Dr Bhubhindar Singh Associate Professor and Coordinator of the Regional Security Architecture Programme Mr Henrick Z. Tsjeng Associate Research Fellow With the 10 th anniversary of the ADMM in 2016, the Regional Security Architecture Programme at RSIS is conducting a study on the evolution and future of the ADMM and ADMM-Plus processes. The objective of this project is to examine views on regional defence cooperation, and to envision the next phase of ADMM and ADMM-Plus cooperation. Specifically, this research project will provide perspectives and ideas on: (i) the roles of the ADMM and ADMM-Plus amidst geostrategic trends in the region and the current status of regional defence cooperation; (ii) the importance of the ADMM and ADMM-Plus in the defence strategies of regional countries and how these views have evolved since the inception of the forums; (iii) the strengths of the ADMM and ADMM-Plus, as well as challenges facing cooperation in the two forums; and (iv) the future direction and areas for defence cooperation in the region. theme / Regionalism and Multilateralism region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN Start : 27/01/2015 Duration: 104 weeks Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: 52 weeks Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: 104 weeks

6 MIRVing India s Missiles? Dr Rajesh Basrur Professor and Coordinator of the South Asia Programme This paper engages with the Indian strategic elite s motivation for MIRVing nuclear-armed missiles. It shows that elite perceptions are unclear, dominated by a technical imperative, and uncertainty about the probable impact of MIRVing. The paper is being co-authored with Jaganath Sankaran for the Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, D.C. theme Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / region South Asia Rising India: Status and Power Dr Rajesh Basrur Professor and Coordinator of the South Asia Programme This monograph examines India s quest for status as a distinctive aspiration that sometimes overlaps with its security objectives, but is in important respects, separate from it. In a more general framework, it provides a framework for analysing the linkages between status and power relevant to all states. region South Asia The Hedging Prong in India s Evolving China Strategy Dr Hoo Tiang Boon Assistant Professor and Coordinator of the MSc (Asian Studies) Programme This study addresses Sino-Indian relations from the alternative and under-engaged lenses of hedging, as opposed to the more conventional balancing and bandwagoning dichotomy. It analyses why and how, despite the general stable state of and progress in Sino-Indian relations, Delhi has pursued a hedging strategy against China. Under the present Modi administration, India has not deviated markedly from its traditionally prudent foreign policy approach towards China. Yet, there have been discernible changes and arguably, the main departure from the previous government s policy is a matter of degree: a more consolidated hedging component combined with a more robust engagement policy towards China. Like several countries in the Indo-Pacific confronted with the rise of China, India remains strategically ambivalent about China. This study is forthcoming in the Journal of Contemporary China. region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia Start : 06/05/2015 Duration: 78 weeks Start : 01/06/2015 Duration: 104 weeks Start : 01/06/2015 Duration: 52 weeks

7 Regional Security Strategies of Middle Powers in the Asia Pacific Dr Ralf Emmers Associate Professor and Associate Dean Ms Sarah Teo Associate Research Fellow This book seeks to enrich the understandings of middle-power security strategies by examining countries that lack great-power capabilities, but still are able to assert their interests in specific areas of international affairs by virtue of the capabilities they possess. Conceptually, this book examines the behaviours of this group of middle powers, complementing the traditional focus on the great powers in field of Asia Pacific security. Empirically, the book responds to a vacuum in the existing literature, given the lack of comparison among Indonesia, South Korea, Australia and Vietnam as middle powers, by examining the motivations and strategies of these Asia Pacific countries as they navigate regional dynamics and seek to preserve their security interests. theme / Regionalism and Multilateralism region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN entity RSIS / IDSS / CMS Understanding Transformative Local Leadership in Indonesia Dr Alexander Arifianto Research Fellow The aim of this study is to systematically assess whether there are political, institutional, and socio-cultural characteristics that encourage the growth of transformative local leaders in the Indonesian contexts that can be generalised for both theoretical and policy-oriented purposes. This study can help policymakers, both within and outside of Singapore, identify local executives that are widely considered to be transformative leaders and policy entrepreneurs within their respective localities. The identification these leaders in this research will give policymakers insightful backgrounds on their profiles, political strategies, and political allies, especially those from religious-based organisations. Lastly, it can identify potential political, socio-cultural, and institutional characteristics that can potentially be replicated to produce future local leaders with commitment to innovation and policy entrepreneurship that can help Indonesians successfully complete their political and economic transformation. India and Japan: Towards A Global Partnership? Conference and Special Issue/Book Dr Rajesh Basrur Professor and Coordinator of the South Asia Programme Ms Sumitha Narayanan Kutty Associate Research Fellow This project seeks to examine the Special Strategic and Global Partnership between India and Japan, with a focus on the future of bilateral strategic and defence cooperation. The programme will convene a one-day workshop consisting of authors and commentators from India, Japan and Singapore on 29 January The resulting papers will then be published as a book or special issue. theme Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / / Maritime Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia theme General / Country and Region Studies Start : 11/06/2015 Duration: 104 weeks Start : 06/07/2015 Duration: 52 weeks Start : 01/08/2015 Duration: 52 weeks

8 Fighting Separately: Jointness and Civil-Military Relations in India Dr Anit Mukherjee Assistant Professor How do countries transition from single service to joint operations? This research article engages with the discussion on military innovation to argue that civil-military relations are the most important driver for jointness. In doing so it examines jointness in the Indian military. Relying on archival research and primary interviews this article sheds new light on the operations of the Indian Peacekeeping Forces (IPKF) in Sri Lanka from , the 1999 Kargil War and the Post-Kargil defence reforms. The main argument is that the Indian military s transition to jointness has been incomplete primarily due to civilian inattention. It therefore recommends more forceful civilian intervention. region South Asia / Global China s Omni-directional Periphery Diplomacy Dr Hoo Tiang Boon Assistant Professor and Coordinator of the MSc (Asian Studies) Programme Given its size and the vast continental and maritime boundaries that it shares with its neighbours, China has always perceived its peripheries as fundamental to its security and well-being. This book examines China s evolving strategies towards its surrounding peripheries, devoting in particular to a detailed examination of President Xi Jinping s steering of Chinese periphery diplomacy. It argues that China pursues an ambitious, omnidirectional, multi-vectored diplomacy that emphasises the entire periphery region, and not just specific peripheries. In this view, Chinese regional policy cannot be properly and adequately understood without taking into account its full breath, substance and scope. Going beyond the usual focus on East Asia to also appraise the relationship with and management of its non-traditional peripheries of Central and South Asia, this book will address new developments in China s periphery strategy under Xi. This book is co-edited with Professor Wang Jianwei, Director of the Institute of Global and Public Affairs at the University of Macau. Studying China s Assertiveness Dr Hoo Tiang Boon Assistant Professor and Coordinator of the MSc (Asian Studies) Programme This study attempts to address the question of China s perceived rising assertiveness in the Asia Pacific region. Speaking and contributing to literature and debate on the idea of China s assertiveness, this paper suggests that China s diplomacy in Asia can be better understood from the lenses of what is termed flexible assertiveness. Flexible assertiveness refers to a two-pronged foreign policy strategy that combines two particular aspects: one, a tougher and more uncompromising approach towards issues which China regards as its core interests or connecting to its core interests. The other is a more flexible and cooperative approach towards certain more negotiable interests that, while significant, are of relative secondary importance to Beijing. region East Asia and Asia Pacific region Central Asia / East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia Start : 01/09/2015 Duration: 26 weeks Start : 01/10/2015 Duration: 52 weeks Start : 01/10/2015 Duration: 52 weeks

9 And the Wheels on the Bus Go Round and Round: Why the Six-party Talks May Never Really End Mr Lee Il Woo Associate Research Fellow Only a modest scholastic voyage has been made so as ignite, or reignite, a thorough discussion on the efficacy of the Six-Party Talks (SPT) now that speculations have surfaced of its possible resurrection. Strangely, despite the clear disappointments of the SPT to yield any lasting settlements, the question of why this medium still lingers as the default preference for significant stakeholders is what this study seeks to decipher. Special attention is paid to regime theories laid out in the works of Stephen Krasner and Ernst B. Haas to explain the enduring lifeline of the SPT. Using what Krasner has dubbed a modified structural position when illustrating the inner workings of both the 1994 Agreed Framework and the SPT regimes, this paper will further argue that while the world may operate under a realist paradigm, regimes do in fact make a difference, especially when independent decision-making can lead to disastrous results. theme Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / / Regionalism and Multilateralism region East Asia and Asia Pacific China s Evolving Marine Fishery Sector and Global Fishery Governance: Norm Dissemination and Rising Power Mr Hongzhou Zhang Associate Research Fellow Dr Fengshi Wu Associate Professor Since the late 1970s, China s marine fishing industry has experienced phenomenal expansion on par with the country s overall economic development. China is now the biggest producer and exporter of fishery products in the world. Unfortunately, such rapid development of fishery industry is depleting fishery resources within China s traditional fishing grounds equally rapidly, which has pushed for two structural changes: (i) a shift from inshore to offshore fishing; (ii) the expansion of deep water fishing. These structural changes will inevitably affect the regional and global fish stocks and marine ecology, and thus pose a grave challenge for global governance. The research focus on a few innovative mechanisms for norm diffusion which have had effects in engaging China with global norms such as transnational policy advocacy, treaty cross-referencing and soft compliance. theme Non-traditional security region East Asia and Asia Pacific Modernising Southeast Asia s Armed Forces in the 21 st Century Negotiating the Technological and Operational Challenges Ahead Dr Bernard Fook Weng Loo Associate Professor This article explores the technological and operational challenges that will face Southeast Asia s armed forces as they continue to modernise their existing orders of battle. It argues that these challenges will exert contradictory imperatives to the respective modernisation programmes of the region s armed forces. Start : 01/11/2015 Duration: 16 weeks Start : 01/11/2015 Duration: 24 weeks Start : 01/11/2015 Duration: 20 weeks

10 Multiculturalism in the Secular State: Assessing Religious Freedom in Malaysia Ms Saleena Saleem Associate Research Fellow Several high-profile disputes around religious freedom in the past decade were pursued both in the civil and Islamic court systems, raising fundamental questions about equality and liberty in Malaysia. However, rather than resolve questions and clarify the meaning and content of religious freedom, the courts themselves have become principal sources of tension that not only exacerbates existing inter-ethnic tensions, but also deepens the secular-versus-religious polarising dynamic in society. This paper analyses the factors that contribute to the secular-versus-religious polarising dynamic in Malaysian society; examines how religious freedom disputes arbitrated in the court systems exacerbate societal tensions; and considers alternative mechanisms to mediate certain religious freedom disputes that would otherwise fall in the overlapping jurisdictions of the civil and Islamic courts. Understanding Shifts in China s Food Security Strategy: The Advocacy Coalition Approach Mr Hongzhou Zhang Associate Research Fellow Over the past few years, China s food security policy has moved away from its longstanding self-sufficiency to an open model. This article uses the advocacy coalition framework to understand this process of policy change. The author argues that recent shifts of China s food security strategy can be presented as a competition between coalitions advocating belief systems regarding problems and policy. Changes in both domestic political economy of the food system, as well as external environment, have helped the neo-liberal coalition to break the predominance of the self-sufficiency collation. theme Non-traditional security region East Asia and Asia Pacific Running to a Standstill: The Debate Over Defence Reforms in India Dr Anit Mukherjee Assistant Professor This is an intended book chapter in co-edited volume tentatively titled India s Emerging Strategic Challenges. This chapter examines the process of defence reforms in India. In doing so, it describes the evolution in India s higher defence organisation including post-kargil defence reforms. The chapter also focuses on contemporary debates and analyses the functioning and recommendations of the Naresh Chandra Committee, which was created in 2011 to revisit the defence reforms process. It concludes by suggesting a roadmap for future defence reforms. region South Asia Religion in Contemporary Society Start : 01/11/2015 Duration: 22 weeks Start : 01/12/2015 Duration: 32 weeks Start : 01/12/2015 Duration: 39 weeks

11 Civil Society Development in China: Ideational Dimensions Dr Fengshi Wu Associate Professor Based on a unique survey of activists and NGO practitioners, this research aims at understand and explain diversifying ideational orientations (including group identity, collective consciousness and political attitudes) of the growing realm of civil society in China. A politically informed and even charged civil society in China could have significant implication for Chinese politics as a whole in the coming decades. In contrast, without a mature civil society, the impact of political reforms in China can be limited. The research is at the stage of producing journal articles, book chapters and a book manuscript. theme General / Religion in Contemporary Society region East Asia and Asia Pacific All Training But No Education: Professional Military Education and Civil-Military Relations in India Dr Anit Mukherjee Assistant Professor This proposed article analyses the role of civil-military relations in shaping professional military education. Its main argument is that military education benefits from a civil-military partnership and that such an arrangement has the potential to enhance military effectiveness and civilian control. This argument challenges Huntington s notion of objective control which assumed that military autonomy maximises its effectiveness. In making these arguments this article focuses on the role of civil-military relations on professional military education in India. The article focuses on the Indian military however it also discusses instances of civilian intervention in military education in different countries like the U.S., the U.K. and China. region South Asia / Global The Chimera of Clarity: Dominant Battlespace Awareness and the Pervasiveness of Fog and Friction Dr Bernard Fook Weng Loo Associate Professor This article investigates a key claim of the Revolutions in Military Affairs literature that pervasive sensing technologies will create a battlespace awareness asymmetry for the state able to leverage on such technologies. The result of this asymmetry otherwise referred to as dominant battlespace awareness will result in a situation where the state enjoying this advantage will operate in battles without the traditional phenomenon of fog and friction. theme General / region Global Start : 01/01/2016 Duration: 76 weeks Start : 01/01/2016 Duration: 26 weeks Start : 15/01/2016 Duration: 40 weeks

12 Japan-Southeast Asia Relations: Pursuing a Soft Balancing Strategy Dr Bhubhindar Singh Associate Professor and Coordinator of the Regional Security Architecture Programme This paper counters the dominant view that Japan is pursuing a hard balancing strategy to achieve its national objectives in response to China s strategic rise especially since the 2000s. While this might be the case for national defence purposes, this strategy does not capture a more nuanced strategy pursued by Japan towards strengthening ties with Southeast Asia. In this regard, Japan has pursued a soft balancing strategy utilizing soft power tools and defence diplomacy. region East Asia and Asia Pacific Antique Arms: A Factor for the Peace in Southeast Asia? Dr Wu Shang Su Research Fellow Although the military build-ups in Southeast Asia in the recent years are often seen as a risk for regional peace, most regional countries armed forces actually possess considerable variety of outdated weapon systems. Through surveying regional countries arsenals with the SIPRI data base and the Military Balance, how aging military assets affect their military capability and their characteristics of military investment will be demonstrated. Consequently, this research would present a rare perspective of regional security. theme Country and Region Studies Guns, Butter and Reputation: Examining Pretoria s Nuclear Arms Programme via Realism, Liberalism and Constructivism Dr Nah Liang Tuang Associate Research Fellow Current analysis of the now decommissioned and defunct South African nuclear weapons programme have investigated the causes of its initiation and termination to encompass factors like fear for national security, the influence of the nuclear research establishment, and international economic and political pressure. However, it is my opinion that single cause explanations of South African nuclear arms development and/or dismantlement are not fully accounting for reality, or are in some cases falsifiable. To address the shortfalls of current research, I propose to write a 8,000-9,000 word paper examining Pretoria s nuclear munitions programme using a framework which links security based realism, counter and pro economic interdependence liberalism, and both pro and counter nuclear proliferation constructivist norms into an interrelated model, which can be substantiated and leaves no causational stone unturned. region Africa Start : 01/02/2016 Duration: 10 Weeks Start : 12/02/2016 Duration: 6 weeks Start : 29/02/2016 Duration: 20 weeks

13 A Documentary History of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Neo-Conservatism: The All-American Way? A presentation for the ISMS Conference 2015 in Helsinki Mr Eddie Lim Senior Fellow Dr Daniel Chua Wei Boon Research Fellow Mr Lee Il Woo Associate Research Fellow Mr Chang Jun Yan Associate Research Fellow This project is an update of a previous publication by Associate Professor Ang Cheng Guan and Mr Eddie Lim. It aims to compile significant documents produced by ASEAN from 1967 to 2007, and develop a thematic commentary that examines key events in the history of ASEAN. - Regionalism and Multilateralism theme region Global Start : 01/03/2016 Duration: 72 weeks Start : Duration: Start : 10/06/2015 Duration: 16 weeks

14 International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)

15 A Sociological Analysis of ISIS Dr Irm Haleem Assistant Professor and Manager (Research and Publications) This essay takes a critical look at the reasons for ISIS success and consolidation, and focuses on factors other than its Islamic rhetoric. theme Terrorism Studies region Global entity ICPVTR Security Informatics Strategic Project Ms Nur Azlin Mohd Yasin Associate Research Fellow Mr Muhd Haziq Jani Research Analyst Ms Vidia Arianti Associate Research Fellow Ms Nur Aziemah Azman Associate Research Fellow Ms Sara Mahmood Research Analyst Mr Jasminder Singh Research Analyst Mr Nodirbek Soliev Senior Analyst Mr Remy Mahzam Associate Research Fellow This research paper is on ISIS messaging and online propaganda, as well as its appeal to its supporters and fighters from regions such as Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. theme Terrorism Studies region Central Asia / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Middle East and North Africa (MENA) entity ICPVTR Understanding Online Presence of ISIS Uyghur and Central Asian Fighters Mr Nodirbek Soliev Senior Analyst This research paper is part of the project on Security Informatics Strategic Project. This paper seeks to explore ISIS messaging and online propaganda, as well as its appeal to its fighters and supporters from regions such as Central and Northeast Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Online propaganda is critical in ISIS ideological war, in which the goal is to persuade the uncommitted that it has the better ideology, and to reinforce the beliefs of its adherents (Payne 2009). The militant group has effectively developed online propaganda strategies to construct and propagate extremist messages for key audiences. The aim of the research is (i) to explore the goals of online messaging of ISIS and its Uyghur and Central Asian affiliates among the populace of Central Asia and China; (ii) to identify the key elements of their online propaganda strategy; and (iii) the mediums through which ISIS extremist messages are disseminated. theme Terrorism Studies region Central Asia / Middle East and North Africa (MENA) entity ICPVTR Start : 01/01/2016 Duration: 15 weeks Start : 27/01/2016 Duration: 44 weeks Start : 27/01/2016 Duration: 12 weeks

16 ISIS Social Media Outreach in Southeast Asia Dr Rohan Gunaratna Professor and Head of ICPVTR Mr Remy Mahzam Associate Research Fellow In the evolution of modern jihadist propaganda, the self-styled Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is using contemporary mode of messaging especially on social media platforms for recruitment, intimidate enemies and promote its claim to establish a caliphate, a unified Muslim state run according to a strict interpretation of Islamic law. This journal identifies the recent tools, strategies and social networking channels utilised by ISIS in their online campaign to reach out to the Southeast Asian audience. theme Cybersecurity, Biosecurity and Nuclear Safety / Terrorism Studies entity ICPVTR Rehabilitation and Community Engagement to Counter the Threat of the Foreign Fighter Returnees and Recruits Dr Rohan Gunaratna Professor and Head of ICPVTR The paper is to be published as a policy brief for the U.S. Their partners will discuss the threat of foreign fighters returning to their home countries and how the tool of rehabilitation can be used to mainstream both returnees and recruits. The paper argues that unless the foreign fighters are assessed and reintegrated, they will pose a security threat, infect others with their ideology and will form a part of the terrorist and insurgent iconography. To this end, Singapore s Religious Rehabilitation Group (RRG) has developed three modes of rehabilitation: religious, social and family, and psychological. ICPVTR has developed four additional modes: educational, vocational, recreational and creative art. In partnership with RRG, ICPVTR has advised, assisted and assessed the rehabilitation initiatives in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Oman, UAE and in Southeast Asia. To meet the challenge of returnees, the Carter Centre plans to share the Singapore model of rehabilitation with governments and partners keen to build their custodial rehabilitation and community reintegration programmes. theme Terrorism Studies / Conflict and Stability / Homeland Security Region / Global region Central Asia / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Middle East and North Africa (MENA) entity ICPVTR Start : 26/02/2016 Duration: 44 weeks Start : 01/03/2016 Duration: 8 weeks Start : Duration:

17 Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)

18 Cultural Fault Lines and Singapore Dr Norman Vasu Senior Fellow and Deputy Head of CENS Ms Yeap Su Yin Associate Research Fellow Ms Nur Diyanah Anwar Research Analyst As society in Singapore grows increasingly diverse, societal fault lines are no longer anchored primarily to traditional differences based on race and religion. Contemporary society s multifaceted identities and affiliations are altering the cultural context of Singapore, presenting potential sites of contestation based on culture writ large. This policy paper discusses (i) the role of culture in creating societal disjunction; (ii) offers cartography of a new culture war in Singapore in various spheres of modern life such as economics, education and sports; and (iii) offers policy options on how these new cultural differences may be attended to. Singapore and Homeland Security / Religion in Contemporary Society entity CENS Particularity and Commonality amongst Singaporean Undergraduates Dr Norman Vasu Senior Fellow and Deputy Head of CENS Ms Yeap Su Yin Associate Research Fellow Ms Nur Diyanah Anwar Research Analyst The ability to shape and live within a multicultural society remains the bedrock of social order and harmony in Singapore. A particular form of multiculturalism has taken root where difference is understood to be represented through a four-way classification of race (CMIO). This approach to managing communal difference has been employed to maintain civility and harmony, carrying the country forward from the racial riots in the 1950s and 1960s through to today s multi-variegated security threats. The basis of multiculturalism in Singapore is, however, very much dependant on the acceptance and practice of this CMIO representation by its people, a representation which appears to be evolving as the country undergoes rapid demographic changes. This is especially evident in the past decade through large-scale immigration as well as from increasing numbers of interracial and international marriages the changing character of the Singaporean population itself. This qualitative study of 90 students from three universities in Singapore (NUS, SMU and NTU) will explore how the youth in Singapore understand multiculturalism and their identities in Singapore. Gender Equality (and its Absence) in Singapore s 2015 General Elections Dr Norman Vasu Senior Fellow and Deputy Head of CENS Ms Priscilla Cabuyao Senior Analyst This article considers the relationship between gender and Singaporean politics through the experience of the 2015 election and its results. It shows that while Singapore has moved some way towards assuaging the demands of liberal feminists for greater representation in the political sphere, much more has to be done in order for gender equality to be achieved. The article argues for the Group Representation Constituency method of electing parliamentarians to be adapted to ensure a greater number of female parliamentarians while a quota system may be required for cabinet to be truly representative of the female demographic of Singapore. theme Country Studies entity CENS Singapore and Homeland Security entity CENS Start : 01/03/2015 Duration: 64 weeks Start : 01/03/2015 Duration: 64 weeks Start : 01/12/2015 Duration: 12 weeks

19 Methodological Challenges Associated with Field and Online Research in Terrorism Studies Mr Joseph Franco Associate Research Fellow Mr Cameron Sumpter Senior Analyst Mr Romain Quivooij Associate Research Fellow To focus on the emerging challenges in using online sources and other open-source intelligence to study terrorist group activities. theme Terrorism Studies region Global entity CENS Start : 01/12/2015 Duration: 24 weeks Start : Duration: Start : Duration:

20 Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)

21 Food Security Research Programme Phase II: Food Security and Climate Change: Regional Dynamics and Implications for Singapore Dr Paul Teng Professor and Adjunct Senior Fellow Dr Jonatan Lassa Research Fellow Dr Tamara Nair Research Fellow Mr Jose Ma. Luis P. Montesclaros Associate Research Fellow Mr Maxim Shrestha Associate Research Fellow Mr Vincent Mack Zhi Wei Associate Research Fellow This research consists of three separate but interlinked projects. Project 1 identified the downscaled impacts of climate change on the supply of food commodities in key production regions and policy implications for safeguarding food security in Southeast Asia. Project 2 looked at stocks and stockpiling practices and mechanisms in the ASEAN region (plus India, China, Japan) and the impacts of such policies on food security and international trade of food commodities. Both projects are completed and currently awaiting confirmation of project closure. Project 3, which is on-going, aims to develop dynamic systems models that will allow evaluation of Singapore s current strategies to ensure sufficient food, and suggest new strategies in response to anticipated changes in food availability. Together these projects aim to understand specific drivers of change in selected food production zones and their implications for the region. International Political Economy / Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / Singapore and Homeland Security region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN entity NTS Centre Research Study on Environmental Issues in ASEAN Dr Raman Letchumanan Senior Fellow This project focuses on three thematic areas related to the ASEAN environment agenda: (i) ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution Towards Effective Implementation of the Agreement; (ii) ASEAN Post-2015 Regional Environmental Agenda: Meeting National Needs while Responding to Global Environmental Issues; and (iii) ASEAN Regional Work Programme on Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation. The study on thematic areas (i) and (ii) have been completed, while the study on climate change is on-going and expected to be completed by April The study takes stock of ASEAN s progress on environmental issues and analyses the effectiveness of regional frameworks, platforms, processes and mechanisms in ASEAN in facilitating regional cooperation and resolving transboundary environmental issues. It also examines national policies and actions in relation to the broader regional environmental goals. The project aims to provide policy recommendations to further promote regional cooperation amongst various stakeholders and contribute towards the formulation of the Post-2015 ASEAN Agenda. theme Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism entity NTS Centre Community Protection and Empowerment Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst This project aims to (i) map the most vulnerable populations across the world to better understand their needs and vulnerabilities; and (ii) to understand the capacity of communities to respond in the event of crises. This project will map out marginalised communities as well as regions that are more prone to disasters and violence. Special focus will be given to regions where these various categories overlap as they are defined as complex security environments. This project will also look at specific ways to help these communities to protect themselves in crisis situations and also determine where and what type of humanitarian assistance should be provided to help them. This project also seeks to bring together the public, private and people sectors to debate on best practices when dealing with vulnerable communities. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global entity NTS Centre Start : 01/06/2013 Duration: 156 Weeks Start : 01/11/2014 Duration: 78 weeks Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: 112 weeks

22 Emerging HADR Landscape in Asia Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst This project will: (i) identify trends and developments in the HADR environment of Asia over the next decade; (ii) assess new and emerging humanitarian actors (both state and non-state) utilising a multi-dimensional and holistic approach across different levels of analysis (community, national, regional and international); and (iii) include emerging trends in preparedness, response and the evolution of regional frameworks. The overall objective will be to identify the implications of these developments for Singapore and the wider region. The geographical scope of the study will be the Asia Pacific. This project will support the delivery of one of the six policy briefs for FY15/16 FY17/18 and an edited collection of papers to be published. It is intended to host an annual writer s workshop for scholars and practitioners to develop key contributions to the project, a regional HADR network and facilitate the building of a bridge between academia and policy. Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) Database Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst The programme intends to establish a HADR database that will provide the basis upon which to capture lessons learnt and reflections on HADR operations. This will provide an avenue to build institutional memory on HADR and the evidence for periodic briefings on HADR developments. Its success will be dependent on the ability to engage with returning and serving relief workers and military personnel involved in HADR activities. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global entity NTS Centre Humanitarian Effectiveness Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst The project will address the challenge of better emergency disaster response in complex situations and evaluate the quality and impact of assistance by militaries and civilian organisations. The project aims to: (i) improve responses specifically including civil-military relations through dialogue, coordination, needs assessment, the development of a HADR database; and (ii) identify pathways to promote more effective HADR. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global entity NTS Centre theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / region Americas / East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global entity NTS Centre Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: Multi-year Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: Multi-year Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: Multi-year

23 Humanitarian Technology and Private Sector Engagement Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst This project aims to (i) examine the field of humanitarian technology as applied to a broadly defined context of crises encompassing both natural disasters and conflict zones; and (ii) examine how humanitarian actors can engage better with various stakeholders from the private sector. This project will evaluate the use of humanitarian technology and identify the impact technology has on humanitarian responses, such as the use of drones for needs assessment, as well as the emergent challenges of information technology, big data and technological innovations in humanitarian action. This project will also identify the private sector resources and networks that can be utilised when it comes to disaster management. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global entity NTS Centre Building a Robust Framework for Nuclear Energy Governance in ASEAN Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Mr Julius Cesar Trajano Associate Research Fellow This programme will explore pathways toward building a robust framework for nuclear energy governance in ASEAN. The study argues that through a dense web of ASEAN-led regional frameworks, to be informed by key lessons on nuclear safety, security and safeguards from other regions, ASEAN is well placed to advance a regional regulatory framework for nuclear energy governance. As such, this three-year project is divided into two research themes: (i) mapping regional regulatory regimes; and (ii) capacity building and policy pathways for the Asia Pacific, including ASEAN. For 2016, the programme will examine the existing regional frameworks on nuclear energy governance energy (EURATOM, Latin America) outside the ASEAN region as well as the nascent regional cooperation on nuclear 3s within the ASEAN. It will assess how the other international frameworks (the U.S., South Korea, Japan) can inform future regional nuclear governance in ASEAN. theme Energy Security / Cybersecurity, Biosecurity and Nuclear Safety / Non-Traditional Security entity NTS Centre Lessons from the 2015 Nepal Earthquake Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Mr Maxim Shrestha Associate Research Fellow Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst The research is intended to investigate the humanitarian assistance and disaster response conducted by various entities in the aftermath of the earthquakes in Nepal in April/May Through key informant interviews and desk-based research, this research paper will (i) explore the different perspectives from both responders and recipients on key response activities; (ii) identify successes and failures of interaction between international responders and local communities; and (iii) identify the lessons learned by individual humanitarian organisations, cataloguing local community leader perspectives and experiences and directions for future activities. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global entity NTS Centre Start : 01/04/2015 Duration: 112 weeks Start : 01/09/2015 Duration: 156 weeks Start : 01/01/2016 Duration: 12 weeks

24 NGO Perceptions of Military Humanitarian Activity Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst This project seeks to (i) identify the various perceptions that Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) have about humanitarian assistance provided by state militaries; and (ii) analyse if these perceptions have impacted the provision of effective humanitarian assistance. Based on consultations with key stakeholders, this project will identify the views about militaries when they provide humanitarian assistance. This project will also explore how recent developments worldwide have affected the relationship between militaries, NGOs and other key stakeholders, with the aim of facilitating better humanitarian outcomes for crisis-affected populations in the future. Finally, the project will look at civil-military coordination in relation to the protection of civilians. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / South Asia entity NTS Centre Future Humanitarian Landscape Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony Associate Professor and Head of NTS Centre Dr Alistair D. B. Cook Research Fellow and Coordinator of the HADR Programme Ms Vishalini Chandara Sagar Senior Analyst Ms Celina Yulo Loyzaga Research Analyst Mr Zin Bo Htet Research Analyst This project will (i) identify trends and developments in the HADR environment of Asia over the next decade; (ii) assess new and emerging humanitarian actors (both state and non-state) utilising a multi-dimensional and holistic approach across different levels of analysis (community, national, regional and international); and (iii) include emerging trends in preparedness, response and the evolution of regional frameworks. The overall objective will be to identify the implications of these developments for Singapore and the wider region. The geographical scope of the study will be the Asia Pacific. The project will support the delivery of one of the six policy briefs for FY15/16 FY17/18 and an edited collection of papers to be published. It is intended to host an annual writer s workshop for scholars and practitioners to develop key contributions to the project, a regional HADR network and facilitate the building of a bridge between academia and policy. theme Conflict and Stability / Non-Traditional Security / region East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / South Asia entity NTS Centre TITLE Start : 04/01/2016 Duration: 56 weeks Start : 05/01/2016 Duration: 56 weeks Start : Duration: