General Idea: The way in which the state is born affects its domestic conditions for a long time The way in which the state is born affects its

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2 General Idea: The way in which the state is born affects its domestic conditions for a long time The way in which the state is born affects its international circumstances for a long time There is a linkage between domestic conditions and international behavior

3 Evolutionary State Formation. Evolutionary processes can take on a variety of forms, such as -- Gradual (social contract) evolution of a community into a self-governing entity with state institutions (Persia, Afghanistan) -- Gradual transfer from a colony of an outside state to a selfgoverning state through ordered transfer of power to the indigenous population (Kuwait, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan) -- Peaceful secession of a state from another state (e.g., the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1991) Typical Characteristics. Takes place over a long time; typically involves little or no violence; done by consent.

4 Revolutionary State Formation. -- Anti colonial struggle between indigenous population and colonial power, ending in the withdrawal of the latter and the formation of a state (usually governed by the leadership of the struggle). Examples, Israel, Algeria, Syria -- Violent secession. two social groups belonging to the same state fight each other, leading to formation of two separate states. E.g., Bosnia, Croatia -- General struggles emanating from collapse of an empire and struggles among indigenous peoples previously united under imperial rule. -- Imposed state formation. A state is formed due to outside intervention. E.g., formation of East Germany, Split of Koreas Typical Characteristics. Extends typically under a brief time interval. Involves violence. Generates external opposition.

5 Domestic Implications. Evolutionary state formation typically leads to substantial degree of political stability. Greater chance of democratization. Focus of politics on state building, economic and social development International Implications: Greater chance of acceptance of the new states by the international community in general and by neighboring states, in particular. Consequence: little involvement in international conflict

6 Domestic Implications: Typically, the new regime is domestically insecure, therefore it employs various repressive or diversionary strategies to establish its legitimacy and to generate political stability Struggle against opposition and different ethnic groups in first few years of regime Severe economic problems. Typical expressions of political instability: attempted and successful coups, riots, demonstrations, irregular government change International Implications. New state invokes opposition from other states in region. Fear of domino effect of regime formation

7 Attempts by neighboring states to take advantage of domestic instability and shakiness of new regime by attacking the new state Attempts by new regime to divert attention from domestic problems by scapegoating: initiating aggression against foreign states. Implication: Initially high levels of international conflict. Some conflict initiated by new state, others initiated against the new state Regression to the Mean Principle. These patterns of international conflict involvement of new states wear out after an initial period. Beyond this period, there is a pattern of maturity wherein conflict patterns begin to resemble the average level of involvement by old states.

8 Level of Conflict Involvement High New revolutionary states Normal Low New evolutionary states Years from Independence

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10 Political change in existing states has similar effect on states foreign policy as does the form of state formation processes. Evolutionary Political Change consists either of regime change or of government change that occurs without violence and by consent of the government and the key social groups in the state (or the general public). Revolutionary Political Change consists of irregular and abrupt government or regime change and is a forceful process, typically involving some form of forceful action involving some level of violence.

11 Both types of political change in established states tend to have similar effects on the states international behavior as do evolutionary and revolutionary processes of state formation. Evolutionary regime change tends to lower the state s propensity to engage in conflict during the first period after the political change. Revolutionary regime change brings about high levels of conflict involvement by the new regime. Conflict involvement by old revolutionary regimes tends to entail both conflicts initiated by the new regime and conflict initiated by other states and targeted at the new regime.

12 Conflict initiated by the new regime is designed to divert attention from domestic problems and to build legitimacy through diversionary policies. Conflict targeted at the new regime is launched by other states for two reasons: fear of domino effects of revolutionary processes, and opportunity to settle scores or seize opportunities while the regime is internally weak and disorganized.

13 Coups, 1949, 1951, 1954, 1962, , War with Israel 1967, 1973, 1982 Forced coup from above; civil war, ; Conflict with Morocco, Civil war, ; War with Israel, Revol. State formation, 1948; War, 1948, 1956 Coup d etat, 1952: War with Israel, UK, and France, 1956 Revolution, 1958; Coups, 1963, 1968; 1979; Wars with Israel, 1967, 1973; War with Iran, 1980; Wars with U.S. 1991, 2003 Revolution, 1979; War with Iraq, Coup d etat: 1958, 1969, Conflict with Egypt and with Kenya, ; Civil war, Revolution, 1962; coups, 1969 (south), conflict, 1972; coup (north) 1974; conflict (1978-9); coup 1992; civil war

14 Civil Wars in the Middle East, War Name State Start Year End Year Fatalities Outcome Palestine Civil War Palestine ,400 Interstate War Yemen Internal Conflict Yemen ,000 Govt. Wins Lebanese Coup Attempt Lebanon ,400 Govt. Wins Iraq Revolution Iraq ,000 Rebels win First Iraqi-Kurdish War Iraq Stalemate Algeria Liberation Civial War Algeria ,500 FLN Wins Yemen Civil War Yemen ,000 Country Divided Sudanese Civil War Sudan ,000 Govt. Wins Jordanian Civil War Jordan ,100 Govt. Wins Iraqi-Kurdish War Iraq ,000 Govt. Wins Lebanese Civil War Lebanon ,800 Stalemate Iranian Revolution Iran ,500 Rebels win Iran-Mojahedeen Iran ,000 Govt. Wins Sudanese Civil War Sudan ,000,000 Compromise-Draw Iraq Vs. Kurds, & Shiites Iraq ,000 Govt. Wins South Yemen Tribal War South Yemen ,000 Stalemate Intifada I Israel ,500 Govt. Wins Turkey-Kurds War Turkey ,000 Govt. Wins Algeria Civil War Algeria ,000 Govt. Wins Iraq-Kurdish Rebellion Iraq ,500 Govt. Wins Intifada II Israel ,500 Stalemate Iraq Iraq 2003 Ongoing 35,000 Ongoing Total 2,613,700

15 Interstate Wars in the Middle East, War # War Name War Start 1 War End 1 Duration (Days) Battle Deaths 148 Palestine 5/15/1948 7/18/ , Sinai 10/29/ /6/ , Six Day 6/5/1967 6/10/ , Israeli-Egyptian 3/6/1969 8/7/ , Yom Kippur 10/6/ /24/ , Iran-Iraq 9/22/1980 8/20/1988 2, , Israel-Syria (Lebanon) 4/21/1982 9/5/ , Gulf War 8/2/1990 4/11/ , U.S.-Iraq War 3/18/2003 4/13/ ,000 Israel-Lebanon 7/12/2006 8/14/ ,651 Total 4, ,819

16 The struggle for Palestine: The Palestinian national movement; The Zionist movement; Colonial Britain; The Arab States

17 The stages of the 1948 war The civil war stage, Nov May 1948 The international war stage, May-December, 1948 The armistice agreement and the Palestinian refugee problem The non-settlement of the Palestine question The postwar era: Palestinian infiltrations Boundary issues State building Revolutionary changes in the Arab world The post-1948 sources of the Arab-Israeli conflict

18 The Iraqi regime The Phalavi regime in Iran Ethnic problems in Iraq; political problems in Iran The Algiers, 1975 agreement The rise of Saddam and the Iranian revolution The upheaval of 1980 The Iraqi calculus of war

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