Ahmed Tayia & Kaveh Madani Centre for Environmental Policy

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1 Transboundary water conflict resolution mechanisms Toward convergence between theory and practice Ahmed Tayia & Kaveh Madani Centre for Environmental Policy

2 Research Objectives Mutual interdependence National Water Policies Riparian Countries. Transboundary Water Management Framework.

3 Research Objectives Transboundary Water Management Framework Riparian 1 Riparian 4 Conflict Resolution Process Riparian Conflict Transboundary resolution water process Management shaping transboundary framework distributing water management basin framework. benefits to the national water policies of riparian countries. Riparian 3

4 Research Objectives Transboundary Water Management Framework Transboundary Water Management Framework Riparian 1 Riparian 4 Conflict Resolution Process Riparian 2 Transboundary Water Management Framework Benefits Transboundary Water Management Framework Riparian 3 Transboundary Water Management Framework

5 Mechanism A scientific representation of a social process that produces set of changes from initial conditions to terminal conditions under particular environmental constraints. A multidimensional process that aim to facilitate a constructive social change among Resources water-sharing Conflicts countries situation in which parties perceive that A they situation have mutually in which incompatible parties perceive goals that they have mutually incompatible goals Conflict a situation Transboundary in which Water parties Resources perceive that they Resources have mutually Sovereignty incompatible Survival goals Resources Transboundary Water Resources Conflict Resolution Sovereignty Survival Honour ideology

6 Analytical Framework Mechanism The process dynamics, operation and outcome are determined by: Entities and activities involved Physical, economic, legal, social and psychological constraints of this process.

7 Analytical Framework General Covering Law A C B

8 Analytical Framework Mechanism A Physical Constraints Social Constraints Economic Constraints 2 Legal Constraints D Physical Constraints Social Constraints 1 C Economic Constraints Legal Constraints B Physical Constraints Social Constraints Economic Constraints Legal Constraints E

9 Conflict Environment Transboundary Water Conflict Resolution Mechanism Third Party (Incompatible Goals) Conflict Resolution Macro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Terminal Conditions (Agreement)

10 Transboundary Water Conflict Resolution Mechanisms

11 Social Planner Social Planner (Incompatible Goals) Terminal Conditions (Agreement)

12 Social Planner Third Party Social Planner (Incompatible (Incompatible Goals) Goals) Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Conflict Resolution Macro-Process Terminal Co (Agreem Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Conflict I

13 Water Market (Incompatible Goals) Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Water Market

14 Water Market Third Party (Incompatible Goals) (Incompatible Goals) Water Market Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Conflict Resolution Macro-Process Terminal Co (Agreem Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Conflict I

15 Game Theory (Incompatible Goals) Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Strategic Game

16 Game Theory Third Party (Incompatible Goals) (Incompatible Goals) Strategic Game Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Conflict Conflict Resolution Issues Macro-Process Terminal Co (Agreem Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Conflict I

17 Conflict Environment Institutional Analysis and Development Framework (Incompatible Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Conflict issues Strategic Game

18 Conflict Environment Institutional Analysis and Development Framework Third Party (Incompatible (Incompatible Goals) Conflict issues Strategic Game Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Conflict Resolution Macro-Process Terminal Co (Agreem Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Conflict I

19 Optimisation Optimisation (Incompatible Goals) Terminal Conditions (Agreement)

20 Optimisation Third Party Optimisation (Incompatible (Incompatible Goals) Goals) Terminal Conditions (Agreement) Conflict Resolution Macro-Process Terminal Co (Agreem Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Conflict I

21 Conflict Environment Alternative Dispute Resolution Third Party Terminal Conditions Conflict Substance Micro Process Micro Process Conflict Substance

22 Conflict Environment Alternative Conflict Resolution Third Party Third Party (Incompatible Goals) Micro Conflict Substance Process Micro Process Terminal Conditions Conflict Resolution Macro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Micro-Process Conflict Substance Terminal Co (Agreem Conflict I

23 Transboundary Water Conflict Resolution Mechanisms Field Mechanism Initial Conditions Macro-Process Dynamics Micro-Processes Dynamics Conflicts Parties Third Party Conflict Environment Constraints Terminal Conditions Social Planner Water Markets Economics Game Theory Institution-Constrained Game Theory Engineering Static Models Dynamic Models Negotiations Alternative Conflict Resolution

24 Conclusions None of the theoretical mechanisms has a comprehensive structure. The nature of the mechanistic approach as a sometimes-true theory. Complements not substitutes.

25 Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London

26 Analytical Framework Mechanism A mechanism is not absolutely true. It can be true in particular instances while being untrue in others. Therefore, Mechanisms cannot be confirmed as general theories, but only confirmed or disconfirmed in specific applications (Coleman, 1968). Therefore, the problem in any particular situation is to determine which mechanism has been followed, or can be applied, in this case.

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