Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path?

Transcription

1 Transcript Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? Khalid Abdalla British-Egyptian Actor, Producer and Activist David Butter Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House Mona Zulficar Founding Partner and Chair, Executive Committee, Zulficar & Partners; Vice President of the Constitutional Committee of 50, 2014 Egyptian Constitution Chair: Editor, The World Today 29 April 2014 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/ speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. 10 St James s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T +44 (0) F +44 (0) Patron: Her Majesty The Queen Chairman: Stuart Popham QC Director: Dr Robin Niblett Charity Registration Number:

2 2 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? Good afternoon. Welcome to Chatham House. It s good to see so many of you have defied the Tube strike today. My name is, I m editor of the Chatham House magazine The World Today. This event is on the record. It will be live-streamed on the Chatham House website. Today we are using the hashtag #CHEvents. Questions can be sent to us via Twitter with the hashtag #AskCH. The subject of today s discussion couldn t be more topical: Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? Since the revolution of 2011 which led to the downfall of President Mubarak, Egyptian politics has moved at dizzying speed. A new constitution was drafted in 2012, which was then approved in a referendum but proved unworkable. After the military deposed the Muslim Brotherhood president, Mohamed Morsi, last year amid widespread protests against his rule, another constitution was drawn up and approved in January by an overwhelming majority of the 38 per cent who voted in it. Next month May 27th, I think the former commander in chief of the armed forces and defence minister, Abdel Fattah el-sisi, is standing for president and it is all but certain that he will be elected. The outlawing of the Muslim Brotherhood, and two recent court cases in which more than 1,000 people were recommended for the death penalty by judges, has raised questions about the new constitutional setup. The big question is: is Mr Sisi as he is now, having forsworn the title of field marshal is Sisi at the head of a counter-revolution determined to return the country to the Mubarak era status quo? Or is he, as he says, preserving democracy? To discuss this, we are fortunate to have Mona Zulficar, a leading Egyptian lawyer and advocate of women s rights. She was vice-president of the Committee of 50 people which drafted the new 2014 constitution approved in January. She is currently a member of the National Council for Human Rights in Egypt. On my left is Khalid Abdulla, a British-Egyptian actor and activist who featured in The Square, about the revolution, and is known for many other roles. He is a founding member of the Mosireen Collective, which supports citizen media. On my far left is David Butter, an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House and former editor of Middle East Economic Digest. He is a well-known commentator on Egyptian politics and economy. I will ask each of the speakers to address you for six to eight minutes and then we ll have plenty of time for questions. Mona, would you like to start? Mona Zulficar Thank you, Alan. It s lovely to be back here. I am actually going to make a few arguments to support a premise that says that transitional periods are always known for being very risky, with a lot of threats of setbacks, and this is very true about the Egyptian transitional period during the last three years. However, I ve looked back at the last three years and have tried to see whether there has been a consistent trend throughout the three years, and concluded that if we do that we can see that there is a trend arguing and proving that Egypt is on the path towards modernity and democratization. I m going to try and give a few arguments on that premise.

3 3 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? The first one is: if you look at the last three years, during the January 25th the wonderful 18 days of revolution, where the Egyptian people faced threats, armoured vehicles, tear gas, killings, violations of human rights, and they stood strong against that and forced the removal of Mubarak. Thereafter, during the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, they resisted the threat of continuing rule by SCAF, the military. They faced violations of human rights in Mohamed Mahmoud, in Maspero and the like. Their persistence led into the era of the Muslim Brotherhood, where we had elections and we had a new constitution and so on. When the Egyptians discovered that it was really a hijack of the revolution and that there was no chance for real democracy, true democracy and the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms, they stood up again on the 30th of June. They sustained a lot of pressure but they managed to prevail and recall former President Morsi. This started with his violation of the principle of separation of powers and his famous constitutional declaration that gave his decisions immunity against judicial review. His suppression of the media, the judiciary, the siege of the Supreme Constitutional Court and all of this the Egyptians felt the threat and stood up and stopped this, and reversed this. Since then, we have had the new constitution and there were a lot of challenges. It was not an easy ride to get this constitution through. We had the threat of polarization, threats of pressure groups whether they are the Muslim Brotherhood and the religious affiliates, other political parties, trying to protect their spoils and the benefits they have acquired under the 2012 constitution. Whether you have non-mb groups like the military, on military tribunals; like the workers and farmers, because they had the benefit of a one-time 50 per cent quota; or other groups that had specific interests under the 2012 constitution you had a lot of challenges to get this through and protect the basic objectives and the purposes of the January 25 revolution and its second wave on June 30, Nevertheless, among all the basic human rights and freedoms that were protected and preserved by the new constitution stands out a very important change that was introduced. That has to do with the guarantees of implementation of the new constitution. There are several guarantees of implementation, including that parliament is not allowed to approve any amendment that breaches or prejudices the principles of freedom, equality and the two terms of the president. This reflects because we have lessons learned. We had during Sadat we remember when the constitution removed the upper limit of two terms of presidency and what happened since then. So no more. This will never happen. The checks and balances on the powers of the president, accountability before parliament, the ability of parliament to recall or impeach the president all those present new ideas that reinforce and guarantee the implementation of democratic principles under the constitution. The most important development that changed during the last three years is a new generation of Egyptian people, politically conscious. Their focus is no longer on football but on politics. They are aware of everything that happens or is being cooked behind the scenes. They are politically engaged and they will not let the dreams or the objectives fall apart easily. This is a very important change, because during the last three years lessons have been learned the hard way. Precious lives have been lost. A lot of losses. Our reserves have been depleted. A lot of issues and problems, threats of polarization, threats of civil war. Threats of terrorism that are not only in Sinai but that now extend over other parts of Egypt. Our neighbourhood is not very friendly, as you all very well know, whether it s the south in Sudan, Libya to the west, or our east with all that s happening in Syria, in Yemen, in Iraq and so on. So we have a lot of risks and so on, but with all of this, at the same time, simultaneously with all that is happening, a new generation of Egyptians. What I mean by new generation is not by age. It s not just a new generation that is coming up, like Khalid. We are very proud of our new generation, but also a new

4 4 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? generation in the sense of engaged Egyptians that come from different walks of life, that come from different political affiliations, but that are determined to build a civil, democratic, modern, rule-of-law state. That are determined to have institutional reform that is required to implement all those principles in the constitution, that are determined to have what they came out for on January 25 and June 30 to redeem the multicultural identity, the Egypt they know and they love, and to really build a democracy, a rule-of-law state that will give them all equal opportunity without any discrimination. This new generation is what I am relying on, that is gradually emerging and is putting pressure. The next president, when he takes office, he is going to have a constitution that limits his powers, that puts checks and balances on his authority. Sharing political power with the prime minister, accountable before parliament in the choice of cabinet and in even a cabinet reshuffle. The parliament has a word to say. Parliament can send him back home. Those are new facts of life. More important, the new president will have to remember that this new generation of emerging Egyptians that I ve just described have toppled two presidents and changed two constitutions in three years, and is determined to claim the Egypt they want, the modern, civil, democratic Egypt. That s what I am counting on. Thank you. Thank you, Mona. Khalid, would you like to speak for the new generation in Egypt? Khalid Abdalla No, I can t speak for the new generation. I can do my best to try and speak for myself. I think if we re to ask the question, is Egypt on the path to democratization, there are really two major strains to thinking about that. One is about the broader brush of where we re headed, whether that s over the next five to ten years, and the situation with the current political status quo. I would argue that the case between those two is massively divergent. For me, when I define democracy, the two most important words I would use, or notions, is the notion of accountability and the notion of pluralism. Far down on the list would be the vote. The vote, of course, is an absolutely essential part of the mechanisms of democracy but very often, unfortunately, we confuse the relationship between those elements. It s clear to me that the current status quo in Egypt is that we are in one of the darkest periods that we ve had in a very long time. We are in one of the bloodiest years that we ve had, and we ve had a lot of bloody years over the last few. When we talk about the accountability of power, I see next to none. When we talk about pluralism, on an institutional level I see next to none. When we talk about the state of our institutions, I see that the majority of them are decrepit, if not in danger of collapse, in a very dangerous situation even in terms of how they would be reformed. Which comes to one of the central issues in relation to how one would discuss the situation in Egypt on a kind of broader political level, and this is really where on a practical basis so many of us this element that very many of us will agree ultimately on what we want to achieve but there are major questions over the strategic nature of how that is achieved. What elements of that require systemic change, which I would call revolutionary change, and what elements require reformist change? And how do you fight? This is a crucial question.

5 5 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? If I look at the months ahead, I think we have a very dark period ahead of us that will unfortunately have a lot of blood. I am also, just to be clear, I m someone who rejects the binary that is placed in front of us that the choice is either between the military or the Brotherhood. Actually systemically, in many ways, I see them as actually closer than they would seem, in terms of many elements. Obviously they are massively divergent. Anyway, maybe that s a discussion we can come to later. I don t see that the current situation we re in is actually institutionally what s going to take us to the safer shores. I actually agree with many things in what Mona has said, but fundamentally when I look at the battle for accountability and pluralism, I see that fundamentally it is being guaranteed by this new generation. It is being guaranteed by the people on the street. It is being guaranteed by people who have reached the absolute end of the line in terms of how they can live their lives, such that there come points of necessity where if you cannot provide for people s needs and we re talking about everything from the most basic glass of water to air that you can breathe, to food that you can eat without feeling that it s cancerous and all of these kinds of things if you cannot provide that, then your reign in power is going to be in danger. So the real question is and Sisi and the current establishment are, I believe, on the one hand thriving on an absolute and legitimate rejection of the Muslim Brotherhood, but on the other side they are also riding on a very strong dream that maybe this man can fix it. The question then becomes: what happens when he can t, or he doesn t? I think when you look at the state of the institutions, when you look at the state of the economy, when you look at the state of accountability and pluralism, of rights, of freedoms, of torture, of people being killed, of the thousands of people in prison, of all of these things of even the enforceability of a constitution which has many good things in it, even though I have massive disagreements with it, in particular in relation to the military, which lest we forget was not put there by 2013, was put there in 2012 by the Muslim Brotherhood. Then that s where you ask the big questions and that s where you remember that you re in a revolution. Revolution, as far as I would define it, is not something that is a few days or few weeks or a few months, it s a period in which massive social change is possible in a very short period of time because people have identified very clearly the strategies that can change their world very quickly. It s a very dysfunctional way of creating a system of checks and balances and ultimately you have to reach a period of reform which is real. In many ways I see, for example, this document as a success in some ways of our argument. I don t see the constitution as the final solution, but I see it as a sense that we are gradually winning the argument in our various different places, in the various different ways in which we re fighting. But I don t see the current situation as in any way, shape or form a form of democratization far from it. Thank you very much, Khalid. David, you ve been studying Egypt for a year or two. What are your thoughts? David Butter Thank you. On the core question, is Egypt on the road to democracy, at the moment I d say no. But I think the constitution, the elements that Mona mentioned, mean perhaps and we hope so, but it s going to take

6 6 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? a long time. I d like to talk a little bit about how I see the current situation, partly from the outside and how international actors see Egypt. I think to some extent this is a question of how little democracy is compatible with stability. This, I think, is partly a message coming from the Egyptian state to the outside. There s a kind of bargaining going on with the United States and the European Union about where that line can be drawn. But at the moment the United States, as I think was very clear from their recent statement, are concluding that there is not sufficient democracy in Egypt to give the country a clean bill of health. They need to see what happens in the presidential and parliamentary elections. They talk about freedom of media, freedom of assembly and so on. So there s still quite a lot to go before even a rather cynical international community is going to go along. I m going to talk a little bit about how I kind of see the interest groups in Egypt interacting with each other and whether at some point that can arrive at a sort of reconciliation that would lay the basis for democracy. I think we can t express too much that when you have events like a judge passing out a thousand death sentences on a totally arbitrary basis with no particular outcry against that, this is marginalizing this is almost dehumanizing a large part of the population. Likewise, when you have 20,000 people stuffed in basements of Central Security Forces barracks around the country with nobody knowing where they are or what they ve done. They re being dehumanized under the label of terrorism. This is not a healthy basis to move forward with democracy. However, there are lots of other things going on in Egypt. But I think we can t forget that this important segment of society broadly defined as being in the Muslim Brotherhood sphere but I wager that very many of these people have got nothing to do with the Muslim Brotherhood at all and of course just being part of the Muslim Brotherhood is not cause for the treatment that s being meted out to these people. So I think at the moment you have the anatomy of a security state, and this is not necessarily a stable security state. It never has been in Egypt. There have always been power struggles within the security state. The main elements of that would be the army and elements within the army; the intelligence services, basically three branches (one answerable to the president, one to the police and one to the army itself); and you have the police and the interior ministry. I think probably the most important thing which Sisi did he still calls himself a mushir, by the way, on his Twitter feed, so he s not totally given that up. Oh, does he? So he s just given up the uniform. David Butter He did after what Mona, with I think a fantastic euphemism, called the recall of Morsi. He appointed a new head of the general intelligence services, somebody he had full trust in. So the actions that have been taken since then the decision to go all out, what I think in the Algerian context you would call an eradicationist strategy against the Muslim Brotherhood was taken in a conclave which we don t really know exactly what views there were but we can see Sisi, we can see the intelligence chief, we can see the interior minister as being the three individuals and the institutions most importantly involved.

7 7 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? But the face, if you like, of repression in Egypt at the moment is overwhelmingly the interior ministry and the police, whoever is behind that. I think the Financial Times a couple of days ago reported on 30 camps around the country in Central Security Forces barracks. It s a police phenomenon that is up front and then it s the more rogue police-affiliated parts of the judiciary which are pressing down on people. I don t think this relationship between these institutions is necessarily stable. I think there is a point at which, if a new president is elected, that he has to consider his options in terms of reaching out to other parts of society. I think the messages coming to Sisi once he s elected will be about the importance of some form of national reconciliation, which will create some difficulties in terms of the relationships inside this security establishment. Going fast-forward in a way, it s a lot about what Mona was talking about, the accountability enshrined in the constitution being very much vested in parliament. Well, we have to get to parliament first. We have to get an idea of what parliament might look like. We don t have the Muslim Brotherhood or that Islamist trend going to be participating effectively in politics. We have a number of older and new parties which are mobilizing broadly on a kind of centrist agenda. Some of them may come together. The question is which group or bloc is going to be the loyalist bloc, the pro-sisi bloc. Are we going to see some sort of tail wagging the dog in terms of politics, as was the feature of National Democratic Party politics in Egypt, of local interests effectively getting themselves elected and then taking on the identity of the National Democratic Party? Are we going to see something a bit like that? Probably not. We re going to see something different. But I would argue that the weight of the first parliament anyway is likely to be a pretty solid loyalist sort of bloc of established interests. I m sure we can talk a bit more about that, but I ll just close with some remarks about the view of the business community in Egypt and of the international business community interested in Egypt. They want stability. Stability is needed because stability is a precondition for the inflows of investment into the Egyptian economy, without which it cannot survive. One of the most alarming statistics I saw recently was a forecast from the IMF, in its World Economic Outlook, of Egypt over the next five years. The current account deficit for that period: this year, $15 billion, rising to $30 billion. So you ve got a $100 billion financing gap effectively to be filled over the next five years, one way or the other. At the moment, it is being filled by Gulf funds. One-fifth of the revenues in the Egyptian budget this year so far is denoted as grants from Gulf governments. So the Gulf governments are paying for a huge budget deficit, a deficit which without these grants is 14 or 15 per cent of GDP even with these grants is 10 or 11 per cent of GDP. The Gulf grants now are the biggest source of current account revenue, more than remittances, more than tourism, more than exports. Gulf grants are keeping Egypt afloat. There is an agenda behind these Gulf grants what the Gulf states view as the future of Egypt. That s another story: whether they view the future of Egypt in the same terms of a democratic transition, I don t know. But the situation in terms of the economy is absolutely perilous. Whoever does take on the presidency and then the government cannot escape this very difficult balancing act between hitting living standards (through cutting subsidies, for example, and through doing something with this huge wage bill) and maintaining levels of investment which will create growth and which will start to pull Egypt out of this dependency on external aid. It s a hugely challenging set of problems. I think at the moment it s going to be a difficult one to reconcile with a rapid move towards democracy.

8 8 Another Turning Point: Is Egypt Still on a Democratic Path? Thank you very much, David, for explaining the contradiction between stability and democracy and other things. We can move on to questions now.