Measuring Democratic Governance: An Emerging Challenge to Official Statisticians By Virola, Romulo A., De Costo, Severa B. & Villaruel, Mai Lin C.

Transcription

1 Measuring Democratic Governance: An Emerging Challenge to Official Statisticians By Virola, Romulo A., De Costo, Severa B. & Villaruel, Mai Lin C. Presented by Dr. ROMULO A. VIROLA Secretary General National Statistical Coordination Board 3 rd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy on Charting Progress, Building Visions, Improving Life Busan, Korea on October rd OECD World Forum

2 Outline of Presentation I. Introduction II. III. IV. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance: The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies (NSAs) in Measuring Democratic Governance Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience V. Concluding Remarks/Future Directions 2 3rd OECD World Forum

3 I. Introduction Democratic governance could provide enabling environment to the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) /1 The need for statistics and indicators on democratic governance to guide development planners and other stakeholders Many efforts on measurement of democratic governance outside of NSAs Challenge to official statisticians is whether and/or how to get involved in the measurement of democratic governance /1United Nations Development Programme rd OECD World Forum

4 I. Introduction Pioneering Metagora Project on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance of OECD-PARIS21 The Metagora intends to develop tools to measure DHRG Metagora stressed importance of involving NSAs in the measurement of DHRG Philippines was one of the pilot areas of Metagora 4 3rd OECD World Forum

5 I. Introduction In the Philippines: A pilot survey on the rights of indigenous peoples with focus on rights to ancestral domain; implemented by the Commission on Human Rights in cooperation with the National Commission on Indigenous People, the statistical agencies and the research community The project was entitled Development of a Pilot Survey Methodology for a Diagnosis of Rights of Indigenous Peoples in the Philippines. 5 3rd OECD World Forum

6 I. Introduction Inspired by the Philippine involvement in the Metagora project, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) continued its efforts to measure democracy, human rights, and governance 6 3rd OECD World Forum

7 II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: International Initiatives a. Human Development Index (HDI) of UNDP a. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of World Economic Forum b. Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of Transparency International 7 3rd OECD World Forum

8 II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: International Initiatives d. Global-Urban Governance Index (UGI) of UN HABITAT Kenya e. METAGORA Project on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance of OECD/PARIS21 8 3rd OECD World Forum

9 II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: International Initiatives An inventory of sources of governance indicators at the international level has been compiled by the METAGORA/ Paris 21 and the OSLO Governance Center 9 3rd OECD World Forum

10 II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: In the Philippines: a. Human Development Index (HDI) a. Subnational MDGs a. Countryside in Figures (CIF) - Provincial 10 3rd OECD World Forum

11 II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: In the Philippines: d. Development of a Methodology for a Diagnosis of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples to Ancestral Domains - Metagora Project e. Survey of Users of Governance Indicators f. Good Governance Index- Provincial d. Private Sector initiatives- perception-based surveys 11 3rd OECD World Forum

12 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Mandate: Who is Responsible? Oversight bodies on democracy, human rights, anti-corruption and governance have no statistical capacity to generate information to inform their decisions On the other hand, NSAs have no conceptual knowledge of the subject Whose responsibility is it to measure democratic governance? Who should take the lead role? 12 3rd OECD World Forum

13 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Capability Statistical offices and democratic governance institution need to be capacitated on a sustained and sustainable basis Collaboration and coordination between agencies is desirable 13 3rd OECD World Forum

14 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Resource Constraints NSAs of developing countries are perennially faced with financial and manpower resource constraints Technical and financial assistance come from development partners, both multilateral and bilateral But, development partners also contribute to the lack of capacity thru conduct of donordriven statistical activities and hiring of trained NSA staff 14 3rd OECD World Forum

15 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Involvement of National Statistical Agencies in controversial, noncore statistical activities Traditional statistical products: national accounts, prices, employment, health, education, etc. NSAs have apprehensions to get involved in the production and dissemination of data on democracy, human rights and governance But if NSAs do not get involved, and democratic governance is high on the development agenda, won t we become irrelevant? 15 3rd OECD World Forum

16 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Conceptual Validity/ Acceptability no universally accepted comprehensive conceptual framework Does the statistical framework measure what is supposed to be measured? Consultation with stakeholders is desirable 16 3rd OECD World Forum

17 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Choice of Indicators - a statistical framework must be developed to produce numbers that will be useful to policymakers Some Characteristics of Good Indicators policy relevant nationally and internationally comparable combine top-down and bottom-up approaches supplement quantitative with qualitative data participatory and transparent timely data support and can be regularly monitored 17 3rd OECD World Forum

18 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues To Index or Not to Index? But For policymakers like politicians - good to index, Indexing has its pitfalls - Sophisticated data users may not need an index. 18 3rd OECD World Forum

19 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Consistency with Other Initiatives When Figures/Numbers released by international agencies or the private sector do not tally with official statistics, NSAs credibility is affected Good metadata disseminated thru the website promotes transparency and enhances public appreciation of the strengths & weaknesses of official statistics. 19 3rd OECD World Forum

20 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Data Availability/Support to the Indicators Data generally not available Choice of indicators influenced by availability of data with the desired level of disaggregation, frequency and timeliness. Comparability and Availability of Indicators suffer from the differences in levels of statistical development, levels of appreciation of statistics of sectoral agencies of the national statistical system and the different local government units. 20 3rd OECD World Forum

21 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Data Availability/Support to the Indicators Some data is better than no data NSAs have to start somewhere 21 3rd OECD World Forum

22 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Timeline for Dissemination official statistics in developing countries and even in developed countries are not timely timeline for dissemination must be carefully calibrated to promote integrity, credibility & objectivity of official statistics Should politically sensitive statistics be released before or after the elections? 22 3rd OECD World Forum

23 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues To Rank or Not to Rank Ranking countries/provinces/municipalities can falsely misrepresent reality if conceptual and/or statistical framework have flaws Stakeholders of statistics - the media, local government executives, & others - are fascinated/obsessed with rankings which can raise public appreciation for the statistics generated Better to rank! 23 3rd OECD World Forum

24 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Politicization of the Index/Indicators Some statistics like those on poverty, consumer price index, unemployment, the national accounts and democratic governance can attract great public and media attention that contributes to their politicization It may be good NSAs gain mileage that can translate into improved support for and use of statistics It may be bad when methods do not pass examination by recognized experts, the NSA will suffer as an institution 24 3rd OECD World Forum

25 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Credibility/ Trust and Confidence on the Measure The effectiveness of the NSA is highly dependent on its credibility and the public trust and confidence on its outputs If NSA has earned the respect of the public - better for democratic governance indicators to be generated by or thru the NSA than by or thru a subject matter agency. 25 3rd OECD World Forum

26 III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Prioritization of Statistical Activities NSAs have finite resources Prioritization will always be a factor in deciding whether the NSA should get involved in measuring democratic governance 26 3rd OECD World Forum

27 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience Measuring Governance of Provinces: THE PROVINCIAL GOOD GOVERNANCE INDEX (GGI) Provincial Good Governance Index aims to provide information on the performance of the local chief executives (governors) Compares GGI at the beginning and at the end of the term of the Governor 27 3rd OECD World Forum

28 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience PROVINCIAL GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK Uses the framework developed by NSCB in 1998 Covers 3 aspects of governance Economic Governance Political Governance Administrative Governance 28 3rd OECD World Forum

29 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience PROVINCIAL GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK Includes 28 indicators for the 3 areas of governance Includes some MDG indicators Ranks the provinces Presented in 2 nd OECD World Forum 29 3rd OECD World Forum

30 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) During the presentation of the Provincial GGI to the League of Mayors, they suggested that it be extended to municipalities Towards Informed Decisions of Voters During Elections: Measuring Governance of Local Officials Mayors Development Center, Inc. Election Forum, 2007 Elections: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly in the Local Government, 13 April rd OECD World Forum

31 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) As of June 2009, the Philippines has 80 provinces 1511 municipalities No conceptual/statistical framework yet Computational Exercise using available data 31 3rd OECD World Forum

32 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Data Source: Statement of Income and Expenditure (SIE) from The Philippine Bureau of Local Government and Finance Amount of Financial Resources at the Disposal of the LGU Executive How resources are generated and spent, and whether they are spent for development 32 3rd OECD World Forum

33 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) SIE shows, among others, which municipalities are the most/least dependent on the Internal Revenue Allocation (IRA) from the national government; have the highest/lowest per capita income and per capita expenditure; spend the most/least per capita on basic social services like education and health 33 3rd OECD World Forum

34 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Results for 2006: Financial support from the national government accounts for at least 70 percent of the total resources of 84 percent of the municipalities; Of the total expenditures Less than 8 percent goes to health Less than 4 percent goes to education 34 3rd OECD World Forum

35 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Deficit or Savings? 90 % of municipalities reported savings in rd OECD World Forum

36 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Gender and Governance In 2006, Female-mayored municipalities represented 16% of all municipalities and they represent 17 percent of the 30 municipalities with the highest per capita expenditure on education and 27 percent of the 30 municipalities with the highest per capita expenditure on health. 17 percent of the municipalities with the biggest deficits 36 3rd OECD World Forum

37 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Poverty Statistics and Income there are a number of municipalities that had relatively big amounts of financial resources, but which did not rank correspondingly well in poverty 37 3rd OECD World Forum

38 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Election Results in 2007 Indicators Won Lost either ended their term, retired,did not run for same post or died Municipalities with the biggest per capita income Municipalties with the lowest per capita income Most Improved municipalities in per capita income Municipalities with very low improvement in per capita income based on difference in level Municipalities with biggest share of expenditure allocated to Education Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to Education Municipalities with the biggest share of expenditure going to Health Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to Health Municipalities with the Biggest Saving rd OECD World Forum

39 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) THE VOTERS INDEX Aims to measure the wisdom of the voters in selecting candidates A 0 or 1 is assigned to municipalities, depending on the results of the election and indicators: If the mayor (or his relative): Best or Best Performing Municipal Worst or Worst Performing Municipal Won 1 0 Lost 0 1 Voters are not voting properly! Bad performance not sufficient to be voted out! 39 3rd OECD World Forum

40 IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience Table 1. Voter's Index for 2007 Philippine Election Indicators Voter's Index N Municipalities with biggest share of expenditure allocated 30 municipalities 1 to Education Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to Education Municipalities with the biggest share of expenditure going to Health Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to Health Municipalities with the Biggest Saving Municipalities with the Biggest Deficit Municipalities with the biggest per capita income Municipalties with the lowest per capita income Most Improved municipalities in per capita income 2006 Municipalities with least improvement in per capita income Those mayors who have died, retired and those who have completed their three consecutive terms, hence, not allowed under the Law to run for re-election are not included in the computation unless they ran for another office and won.one limitation, however, was the difficulty in verifying if those mayors from distant municipalities whose term ended ran for another office during the 2007 elections due to lack of information. 40 3rd OECD World Forum

41 V. Concluding Remarks and Future Directions 1. National statistical agencies must get involved in efforts to monitor better the progress of societies and in the measurement of democratic governance 2. Governance indicators are more appropriate at lower levels of administrative disaggregation 3. Methodology needs to be improved 4. The timing and extent of dissemination of the results need to be assessed for maximum but fair impact. 41 3rd OECD World Forum

42 V. Concluding Remarks and Future Directions 5. Advocacy for recognizing good governance has to be strengthened 6. Statistical capacity building not only of producers but also of users of statistics 7. Greater investment in statistics by government and the private sector 42 3rd OECD World Forum

43 Maraming Salamat po! URL: rd OECD World Forum