The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Transcription

1 The International Institute for Strategic Studies The International Institute for Strategic Studies This content may be used for research and private study purposes. All rights reserved. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Full terms and conditions of use: SCROLL DOWN FOR DOWNLOADED CONTENT The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Arundel House, 6 Temple Place, London WC2R 2PG, United Kingdom. Incorporated in England with limited liability under number UK registered charity

2 THE 12 TH IISS ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT The Shangri-La Dialogue Since the inception of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, this unique experiment in multilateral defence diplomacy has involved, at one point or other, defence ministers, deputy ministers, chiefs of defence staff, national security advisers, permanent undersecretaries, intelligence chiefs and other national security and defence officials from: Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Thailand, Timor Leste, Tonga, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam. The result has been the growth of the Shangri-La Dialogue into the richest collection of defence professionals in the Asia-Pacific. The goal of the IISS is to ensure that the Shangri-La Dialogue will continue to serve as the best available vehicle in the Asia-Pacific for developing and channelling astute and effective public policy on defence and security. The IISS, a registered charity with offices in London, Washington, Manama and Singapore, is the world s leading authority on political military conflict. It is the primary independent source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues. Publications include The Military Balance, an annual reference work on each nation s defence capabilities; Strategic Survey, an annual review of world affairs; Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, a bi-monthly journal on international affairs; Strategic Comments, offering online analysis of topical issues in international affairs; and the Adelphi book series, the Institute s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. The range of IISS publications, its convening power, and the Institute s strong international policy perspective make the IISS a key actor in the global strategic and economic debate. Since its inception 12 years ago, the Shangri-La Dialogue has truly become one of the most substantive and meaningful security dialogues in the region. Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam A premier and very relevant institution it becomes more and more important every year. And there s no other event, no other venue like it. It is that important. Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US This important forum, so instrumental for promoting peace, security and cooperation, both within our region and at the global level. Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, Prime Minister of Timor-Leste [The] Shangri-La Dialogue has become such a significant part of the security landscape in Asia. Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, UK The Shangri-La Dialogue is important not only to the Asia-Pacific region, but also to the world. Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, China The International Institute for Strategic Studies Arundel House Arundel Street Temple Place London wc2r 3dx UK t. +44 (0) f. +44 (0) e. iiss@iiss.org w. The International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia 9 Raffles Place #51-01 Republic Plaza Singapore t f e. iiss-asia@iiss.org The International Institute for Strategic Studies Middle East 14th floor, GBCORP Tower Bahrain Financial Harbour Manama Kingdom of Bahrain t f e. iiss-middleeast@iiss.org The International Institute for Strategic Studies US 2121 K Street NW Suite 801 Washington, DC USA t f e. iiss-us@iiss.org THE 12 TH IISS ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT THE SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE The International Institute for Strategic Studies The International Institute for Strategic Studies 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue

3 The IISS wishes to thank these sponsors of the Shangri-La Dialogue

4 The International Institute for Strategic Studies 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 MAY 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue

5 THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 12 TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 31 MAY 2 JUNE 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue The International Institute for Strategic Studies Arundel House Arundel Street Temple Place London wc2r 3dx UK July 2013 The International Institute for Strategic Studies Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman Editor Dr Tim Huxley Contributors Dana Allin, Douglas Barrie, Ben Barry, William Choong, Mark Fitzpatrick, James Hackett, Nigel Inkster, Christian Le Miére, Alexander Nicoll, Dr Nicholas Redman, Eneken Tikk-Ringas Editorial Dr Ayse Abdullah, Mona Moussavi, Alexa van Sickle Editorial Research James Howarth Production and Design John Buck All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the institute. Printed and bound in Great Britain by Hastings Printing Co. Ltd, East Sussex. The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

6 Contents Foreword...5 Introduction...7 Chapter 1 Keynote address and opening dinner...13 Chapter 2 First plenary session The US approach to regional security...17 Chapter 3 Second plenary session Defending national interests; preventing conflict...23 Chapter 4 Third plenary session Military modernisation and strategic transparency...29 Chapter 5 Simultaneous special sessions Session 1 Avoiding incidents at sea Session 2 The Afghan drawdown and regional security Session 3 Missile defence in the Asia-Pacific Session 4 New military technologies and doctrines Session 5 Defence diplomacy and conflict prevention Session 6 The cyber dimension to Asian security...46 Chapter 6 Reception...49 Chapter 7 Fourth plenary session New trends in Asia-Pacific security Chapter 8 Fifth plenary session Advancing defence cooperation in the Asia-Pacific...59 Appendices I. Selected press coverage of the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue...66 II. Selected IISS publications...86

7

8 FOREWORD The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is pleased to present this summary of the proceedings of the 12th IISS Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue. The IISS inaugurated the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, and it was held with great success for the twelfth time in Singapore from 31 May 2 June As in previous years, the latest Dialogue gave participating states defence establishments, represented by their ministers, permanent heads of ministries and military chiefs, unparalleled opportunities to hear each other s perspectives on current and emerging security challenges in their region and globally. As well as plenary sessions and special sessions (all but one of which were on the record this year for the first time), government delegations also held many private bilateral (and in some cases trilateral) meetings with their official counterparts from other participating states. This report summarises the discussions that were open to all summit delegates in the plenary and special sessions. Full transcripts of all sessions, including questions and answers, are available on the IISS website. In 2013, 28 governments sent delegations to the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. In addition, the European Union s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security participated, as well as ministerial representatives of four additional countries that were not usual Dialogue participants. Outstanding features of this twelfth summit in the series included the keynote address at the opening dinner by Vietnam s Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, the first address to the Dialogue by Chuck Hagel in his new capacity as US Secretary of Defense (he had spoken at the very first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002 as leader of a US congressional delegation), particularly strong participation throughout the event by delegates from China s People s Liberation Army, and evidence of a pivot to Asia on the part of the European Union, its member states, and Canada. The IISS thanks the government of Singapore for its generous support and logistical assistance for the Shangri-La Dialogue in A Memorandum of Understanding between the IISS and Singapore s Ministry of Defence, signed in May 2012, provides for the extension of the ministry s support for the Dialogue to 2019 and for the addition of new features to the Shangri-La Dialogue process. During the second half of 2012, the IISS began to broaden the process by recruiting two Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellows for Asia-Pacific Security, who were established in the IISS Asia office in Singapore in early In February, IISS Asia successfully organised the first of a series of annual specialist workshops on defence and security issues as an intersessional activity of the Shangri-La Dialogue. That gathering, the IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting, brought together 58 delegates including governmental representatives (both civilian and military) from 18 Shangri-La Dialogue participant states. Debate focused on inter-state security problems, and national delegations conducted numerous bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Forum. We also express gratitude to the following commercial, institutional and governmental benefactors for additional, vital financial support: The Asahi Shimbun, Boeing, EADS, Lockheed Martin, the Mitsubishi Corporation, the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore Technologies Engineering and the Australian Department of Defence. The IISS looks forward to developing further these valuable partnerships in the service of advancing pan-regional security dialogue and cooperation. Dr John Chipman cmg, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS Asia Foreword 5

9

10 INTRODUCTION Initiated by the IISS in 2002 in response to the evident need for a forum where the Asia-Pacific s defence ministers could engage in dialogue aimed at building confidence and fostering practical cooperation, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in the only annual meeting for defence ministers from across the broad Asia- Pacific region. It also convenes chiefs of defence staff, permanent heads of defence ministries and (in a parallel meeting) intelligence chiefs from the same region. It has established itself as a key element of the emerging regional security architecture, and maintains its status as the most important and most inclusive gathering of top-level defence professionals in the Asia-Pacific. By providing for their specific interests and requirements, and by facilitating easy communication and fruitful contact among them, the Shangri-La Dialogue has helped to cultivate a sense of community among the key policymakers in the defence and security establishments of regional states and of those major powers with significant stakes in Asia-Pacific security. Over the 11 years since the first Shangri-La Dialogue, growing openness has characterised its discussions, and this was evident at the 12th Dialogue in May June STRONG PARTICIPATION BY GOVERNMENTS AND ARMED FORCES Despite the expanding calls on the time and attention of defence ministers, military chiefs, and top-ranking defence officials as a result of more recently established series of meetings such as the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting and its offshoot, the ADMM-Plus, states have maintained and in some cases strengthened their participation in the Shangri-La Dialogue, which has become institutionalised as a recurrent fixture in the diaries of those invited as key delegates. Total delegate numbers increased from approximately 160 in 2002, to 250 in 2006, 330 in 2010 and 364 in 2013 as a result of the IISS seeking to expand involvement by both governmental and non-official delegates. From the outset, many key national players in the Asia-Pacific ensured that they were represented at a high level. Even at the first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, 14 countries were represented by their defence ministers, deputy ministers, or close equivalents. In 2013, the following 19 countries were represented at full ministerial level: Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Canada, France, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Sweden, Timor Leste, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Deputy ministers or senior officials led the delegations from Brunei, China, Germany, India, Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, senior officials represented Bahrain, Brazil, Norway and Tonga. In the weeks preceding the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue, it was already apparent that one of its most important new features would be what could be referred to as a European pivot to Asia. The defence ministers from the three European countries (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) that routinely sent delegations to the Dialogue were all slated to participate and speak, and it was known that Sweden s Minister of Foreign Affairs would also attend as a guest of the IISS. An additional, special feature of European participation was that, for the first time, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (effectively the EU s foreign minister, defence minister, and security adviser) would also be participating and speaking, Introduction 7

11 Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore; Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam and General Tea Banh, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence, Cambodia Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS; and Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister, Singapore and would be accompanied by senior officials including the Chairman of the EU Military Committee. The Chairman of NATO s Military Committee, a Danish general, would also attend and speak in a special session. These did not seem like coincidental developments; rather, they appeared to indicate a substantial reassessment of the security interests of European states, individually and collectively, in the parallel contexts of the imminent withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan and Western states recognition of the importance of Asian prosperity (and, thus, security) for their economic recovery and long-term well-being. In the event, the German Defence Minister was unable to come to Singapore, but the elevated European interest in Asian security and overall stronger European (and, for similar reasons, Canadian) representation at the 2013 Dialogue was one of its striking features. In view of its status as the world s most populous country, its possession of nuclear weapons and permanent UN Security Council membership, its rapidly growing economic and military power, and its increasing strategic extroversion, regional and international observers of the Shangri-La Dialogue always pay close attention to the level at which China is represented. In 2007, persistent efforts by the IISS to encourage more appropriate Chinese representation bore fruit, and a highlight of that year s Shangri-La Dialogue was China s participation at a significantly higher level. Lieutenant-General Zhang Qinsheng, Deputy Chief of the General Staff (DCGS) of the People s Liberation Army (with vice-ministerial status), led China s delegation. Lieutenant-General Ma Xiaotian, who succeeded Lieutenant-General Zhang as DCGS, led China s delegation and spoke in plenary in 2008, 2009 and Fittingly for the milestone 10th Shangri-La Dialogue, General Liang Guanglie, Minister of National Defence, led a strong PLA delegation to the 2011 summit, at which he spoke in a solo plenary session. General Liang s participation indicated China s acknowledgement of both the permanence and the utility of the Shangri-La Dialogue as a platform for what might be called strategic communication in the Asia-Pacific region. It was disappointing that China was not represented at such a senior level at the Shangri-La Dialogue in However, the IISS received assurances from senior PLA officers at the time that domestic concerns had prevented fuller participation, that Beijing recognised the importance and value of the Shangri-La Dialogue, and that China would again be represented at a higher level at future Dialogues in the series. These assurances were borne out at the 2013 Dialogue, to which Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo, who had been appointed as DCGS in 2012, led a par- 8 The Shangri-La Dialogue

12 ticularly strong Chinese delegation, thus restoring the level of Chinese participation to that which prevailed from Indeed, perhaps the single most significant feature of the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue was the strengthened participation by the Chinese People s Liberation Army. If there had been some concern at the 2012 meeting that China was less than wholeheartedly committed to the Shangri-La Dialogue process, the 2013 Dialogue provided ample evidence that such fears were unfounded. Earlier in the year, China s strong representation at the inaugural IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting, at which the PLA was represented by a strong team led by Rear Admiral Li Ji, Deputy Chief of the Ministry of National Defence s Foreign Affairs Office, had already indicated China s growing commitment to the process and its readiness to engage as fully as possible with other participants. The PLA delegation led by Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant- General Qi Jianguo to the Shangri-La Dialogue itself included two two-star and three one-star officers, and its engagement in all the Dialogue s plenary sessions was impressive. It was notable, and widely remarked upon by other delegates, that members of the PLA delegation posed questions or made informed comments on a wide variety of topics in response to speakers in each of the six main sessions, including the opening dinner address. The PLA delegation was also deeply engaged in the special sessions. The PLA provided speakers for two special sessions (on missile defence in the Asia-Pacific, and new military technologies and doctrines), and members of the PLA made significant interventions in some of the others. Other governments have also raised the seniority of their participation over time. In 2008, Canada s Defence Minister participated for the first time, and Myanmar and Vietnam both elevated their representation to deputy-minister level. In 2009, Vietnam was represented at full ministerial level for the first time; in 2010, Russia s Deputy Prime Minister participated and spoke in plenary. From time to time, the IISS has also invited additional countries keenly interested in Asia-Pacific regional security, such as Chile, Tonga and, in 2013, Papua New Guinea, to send their defence ministers. Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US; and Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo, Deputy Chief of General Staff, PLA, China The extent to which the Shangri-La Dialogue has become a key fixture in the calendars of Asia-Pacific defence establishments has been evident in the participation of national delegations in spite of domestic developments and crises. In 2008, for example, China and Myanmar both sent high-level delegations despite having recently suffered serious natural disasters at home. In 2010, though a political crisis in Japan led to the resignation of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and his replacement by Naoto Kan only the day before the Dialogue began, Japan s new leader ensured that Minister of Defence Toshimi Kitazawa could attend and speak as planned, underlining the importance that Tokyo assigns to security matters and the Shangri-La Dialogue s standing as the key regional defence and security forum. In 2012, Thailand s Minister of Defence, Air Chief Marshal Sukumpol Suwanatat, came to the Dialogue despite a brewing domestic political crisis that meant he had to return to Bangkok during the course of the weekend. And, in 2013, the new Malaysian Defence Minister, Dato Seri Hishammuddin bin Tun Hussein, came to the Dialogue despite having only taken up the portfolio two weeks earlier following a general election. Increasingly frank open debate during the Shangri-La Dialogue has contributed to substantive cooperation on important security issues, and Introduction 9

13 Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam in previous years ministers have used the Dialogue as a platform from which to propose and advance initiatives in areas as diverse as maritime security cooperation in the Malacca Strait and the coordination of humanitarian relief in response to natural disasters, the analysis of the implications of regional states expanding submarine capabilities, the regional proliferation of small arms and light weapons, and the structure of the regional security architecture. In 2013, there was considerable discussion about the idea of a no first use of force agreement in the South China Sea. Official delegations have made increasingly intensive and effective use of the Dialogue as a venue for private bilateral and trilateral meetings with their defence and security partners. The detailed content of these meetings, which have become more numerous each year, naturally remains confidential. Such meetings, though, have sometimes resulted in publicised agreements. At the 2013 Dialogue, US Secretary of Defense Hagel, South Korea s Minister of National Defense Kim Kwan-jin, and Japan s Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera used their fourth annual trilateral meeting as an opportunity to warn of the dangers posed to the peace and stability of Northeast Asia and the world by North Korea s nuclear and missile programmes and continued acts of provocation. The three ministers said they would continue their collaboration in order to deter North Korea. In addition, in 2013 for the first time the US defence secretary and the defence ministers of Australia and Japan held one of their trilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue. As well as exchanging views on regional security, and stating their shared recognition of the threat posed by North Korea, they agreed to conduct a joint study on defense capacity building efforts in Southeast Asia and Oceania. Although the Shangri-La Dialogue has remained above all a Track One inter-governmental meeting, the involvement of non-official delegates has from the beginning served to animate and enrich the summit s proceedings, particularly by interrogating ministerial and other speakers in the plenary and special sessions. Many of the non-official delegates at the Dialogue in 2013 were leading academics and think-tank analysts at the forefront of debate, as well as journalists and bloggers on Asia-Pacific security affairs and private-sector representatives. From the time of the first Dialogue in 2002, to which then-senator Chuck Hagel led a strong, bipartisan US congressional delegation, the IISS has also been particularly keen to involve parliamentarians with defence and security interests. In 2013, legislators participating in the Dialogue included Senator Alan Johnston, Australia s Shadow Minister for Defence, and Mikhail Margelov, Chairman, Committee for Foreign Affairs, Council of Federation of the Russian Federal Assembly. By replenishing each year the cohort of academic experts, distinguished journalists, legislators and business delegates invited to the Dialogue, and by making constant efforts to increase the diversity of non-official delegates from the region, the IISS has continually expanded awareness of the institution in the wider policy community concerned with defence and security. The IISS has also sought to involve senior representatives of relevant international and inter-state bodies. At the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue, there were delegates from the International Committee of the Red Cross and Interpol, as well as the EU and NATO. 10 The Shangri-La Dialogue

14 AN AGENDA FOCUSED ON MAJOR REGIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS Recognising the great geographical scope of the Asia- Pacific, the breadth of the Shangri-La Dialogue s membership and the sheer diversity of the region s security challenges, the IISS has always ensured that the agenda for the Dialogue s plenary and special sessions is wide-ranging. The emphasis in each annual Dialogue has been on what the IISS sees as the most important current and emerging regional security challenges. Asia-Pacific defence ministers and officials have continued to stress the importance of non-traditional aspects of security (humanitarian and disaster relief, for example), particularly as these are areas where regional cooperation is easier to achieve. However, with tensions in the Korean peninsula unabated, territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea intensifying, and evidence of growing military competition between major powers in the region, interest in inter-state security issues in the Asia-Pacific has increased and the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue provided an ideal venue for discussion of such traditional security concerns. The first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002 saw the beginning of a tradition that the summit starts with an address by a leading regional political figure at the opening dinner on the Friday evening. In 2002, Singapore s Senior Minister (later Minister Mentor) Lee Kuan Yew made the opening remarks, and in subsequent years Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Senior Minister (later Emeritus Senior Minister) Goh Chok Tong delivered speeches. In 2009 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of Australia was the first leader of a country other than Singapore to address the opening dinner. He was followed in 2010 by President Lee Myung-bak of the Republic of Korea, in 2011 by Prime Minister Dato Sri Mohd Najib Tun Abdul Razak of Malaysia, and in 2012 by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono from Indonesia. At the 2013 Dialogue, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung of Vietnam spoke on the theme Building Strategic Trust for Peace, Cooperation and Prosperity in the Asia-Pacific Region. He remarked that the Shangri-La Dialogue has become one of the most substantive and meaningful security dialogues in the region and, concluding his address, called upon delegates in the open spirit of the Shangri-La Dialogue to join hands and take concrete actions to build and reinforce strategic trust for an Asia-Pacific region of peace, cooperation and prosperity. On the Saturday morning of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the first plenary session allowed US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (speaking at the Dialogue for the first time in that capacity) to elaborate his predecessor Leon Panetta s explanation at the previous year s Dialogue of the United States rebalance to the Asia- Pacific, arguing that despite its military aspects it was primarily a diplomatic, economic and cultural strategy. In the second plenary, Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, Catherine Ashton, the European Union s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Timor Leste s Prime Minister and Minister for Defense and Security, Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão presented extremely diverse perspectives on the complex question of how to defend national interests while at the same time preventing conflict. In the third plenary session, all three speakers Indonesian Defence Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith, and British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond stressed the necessity of transparency as an accompaniment to military modernisation. One particularly important point to emerge from this plenary session was the reciprocal consultation by Australia and Indonesia with respect to their Defence White Papers. On the following day, the fourth plenary session examined new trends in Asia-Pacific security. Two of the speakers in the session Chinese Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Voltaire Gazmin represented countries that were at loggerheads over their conflicting claims in the South China Sea. While neither dwelt for long on the current tensions, General Qi did emphasise China s interest in seeking solutions through dialogue and its willingness to share resources while Secretary Gazmin stressed the need to secure long-term stability through international legal mechanisms. Canada s Minister for National Defence, Peter MacKay, focused on Canada s engagement in the Asia-Pacific and its wish to play a greater role in the region. Introduction 11

15 and regional security, Missile defence in the Asia- Pacific, New military technologies and doctrines, Defence diplomacy and conflict prevention, and The cyber dimension to Asian security. Members of IISS directing and senior staff chaired these sessions, five of which were for the first time on the record and open to media delegates. Because of the sensitivity of its subject-matter, in order to encourage an open and fruitful discussion, the session on cyber security was off the record. Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, UK; Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Minister of Defense, Indonesia; and Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister, Singapore The fifth and final plenary session heard perspectives from the defence ministers of France and Singapore, and Vietnam s deputy defence minister, on how defence cooperation in the region might best be advanced. All three speakers mentioned the contribution that the Shangri-La Dialogue was making to multilateral defence and security dialogue in the region. Singapore s Ng Eng Hen and Vietnam s Lieutenant-General Nguyen Chi Vinh emphasised the part being played by the ADMM-Plus and the potential for a no first use of force agreement in the South China Sea. On the Saturday afternoon of the Dialogue, distinguished and expert speakers, including deputy ministers of defence, senior military commanders (including the French Chief of Defence Staff, the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, and the Commander of United States Pacific Command), ranking defence ministry officials, and high-level representatives of Chinese research institutes, made opening remarks in six special sessions on Avoiding incidents at sea, The Afghan drawdown LOOKING TO THE FUTURE In his concluding remarks at the end of the final plenary session of the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue, IISS Director- General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman noted that the summit had both begun and ended on the theme of strategic trust, and highlighted the role of the Dialogue in doing everything it could to help build strategic trust through the clarification of the points of view of the different governments represented and through the extraordinary cross-examination of those views that this Dialogue has inspired and encouraged. This is the vein in which the IISS intends the Shangri-La Dialogue to continue. Under the most recent agreement between the IISS and the Singapore government, the series will continue until at least The level and intensity of participation in the latest Shangri-La Dialogue made it clear that it is absolutely able to co-exist with other, more recently established regional forums such as the ADMM-Plus and, indeed, on occasion to engage in fruitful cross-fertilisation with these other, rather different institutions. The Shangri-La Dialogue is unique in terms of its format, variety of participants, and level of media coverage. There is every indication that, together with the IISS Fullerton Forum and other elements of the now widened Shangri-La Dialogue process, it will continue making vital contributions to regional defence and security consultations and policymaking. 12 The Shangri-La Dialogue

16 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 1 Keynote address and opening dinner Friday 31 May 2013, 8.00 pm SPEAKER Nguyen Tan Dung Prime Minister of Vietnam

17 Keynote address and opening dinner Vietnam s Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, continued the established tradition that the opening dinner of the Shangri-La Dialogue is addressed by a serving head of government. Noting that the Dialogue had truly become one of the most substantive and meaningful security dialogues in the region, he chose as his theme strategic trust, emphasising its importance in improving cooperation. He quoted a Vietnamese saying: If trust is lost, all is lost. Dung was introduced by John Chipman, IISS Director- General and Chief Executive, who said a new dimension had been added to the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2013 with the inaugural Fullerton Forum, a sherpa meeting attended by senior officials of participating states. The Shangri-La Dialogue has therefore become a process, not just an event, he said. In addition, the IISS, having recruited new Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellows to the IISS Asia office in Singapore, was conducting more research on regional military developments. Noting that China s People s Liberation Army had determined that the Shangri-La Dialogue was independent, fair and open, Chipman said it was essential that it remained flexible and alert to changes in the shape of Asia-Pacific relations. The IISS would continue to innovate to keep the Dialogue vibrant and useful. In his address, Dung said Asia s rapid development involved risks that should be addressed through cooperation. Competition between nations must avoid calculations that are only in one s own interest, without equality, respect for international law or transparency. Deep concern was caused by the problems in the Korean peninsula and territorial disputes over islands in the East China Sea and the East Sea (known internationally as the South China Sea). The growth of maritime transport meant that a single irresponsible action or instigation of conflict could well lead to the interruption of these huge trade flows, with unforesee- Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam 14 The Shangri-La Dialogue

18 Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam able consequences not only to regional economies but also to the entire world. Therefore building strategic trust was in the shared interest of us all. To do this, each state should be a responsible stakeholder. Big states had a particular responsibility, but smaller nations could help lock major powers into a durable regional architecture. Moreover, responsible cooperation between the United States and China would represent a positive contribution, as these two countries had the biggest roles in and responsibilities to the future of the region and the world. Strategic trust must be reflected in concrete and constructive actions of these nations, the Prime Minister said. The forums brought together under the umbrella of ASEAN, as well as the Shangri-La Dialogue, could foster multilateral security cooperation. It was hard to believe, Dung said, that a Southeast Asia once divided and embedded in conflicts during the Cold War could become a community of nations united in diversity and playing a central role in an evolving regional architecture like ASEAN today. However, there was still insufficient strategic trust in the implementation of agreements. It was vital to have a united ASEAN, and not one in which member states are forced to take sides with one country or the other for the benefit of their own relationships with big powers. For example, both ASEAN and China needed to uphold their responsibilities under the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and redouble their efforts to formulate a Code of Conduct (COC) conforming to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Dung reminded delegates that Vietnam had suffered badly in wars throughout history. We do not forget the past but need to put it behind us and look forward to the future, he said. Vietnam wished to build and deepen strategic partnerships, including with the permanent members of the UN Security Council. The Prime Minister said the country would begin participating in UN peacekeeping operations, beginning with engineering, medicine and observation. Vietnam would not be a military ally to any country or allow any country to set up military bases on its territory. It was modernising its military, but purely for self-defence and the safeguard of our legitimate interests. In another reference to territorial disputes, Dung said Vietnam adhered to the principle of peaceful dispute settlement on the basis of international law. All parties concerned need to exercise self-restraint and must not resort to force or threat to use force, said the Prime Minister. Vietnam would do its utmost to work with ASEAN and China to observe the DOC seriously and soon arrive at the COC. But it would defend its legitimate rights and interests in accordance with international law. Keynote address and opening dinner 15

19 Christian Le Mière, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS Major General Yao Yunzhu, Chinese People s Liberation Army Dr Chung Min Lee, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Asian Security Affairs, IISS QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, asked whether Vietnam agreed with the Philippines attempt to bring China to an arbitration tribunal regarding their dispute over the Scarborough Shoal. Major-General Yao Yunzhu, of China s People s Liberation Army, asked the Prime Minister to cite specific examples in which freedom of navigation was being violated, and under what international law? Dung gave essentially the same answer to both questions: there was no need to go over recent developments or re-state Vietnam s position. He called on ASEAN and China to conform to the DOC, and build the COC. Chung Min Lee, Professor of International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, noting the Prime Minister s repeated use of the phrase strategic trust, asked how much Vietnam trusted the United States vis-à-vis China. Dung said China and the United States were the two powers with the greatest responsibilities. We believe and hope that China and the United States as the two great powers of the world and the region recognise their roles, responsibilities and interests in order to reach practical, appropriate strategies to contribute to peace, stability, cooperation and development, prosperity in the region. 16 The Shangri-La Dialogue

20 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 2 The US approach to regional security first plenary session Saturday 1 June 2013, 9.00 am SPEAKER Chuck Hagel Secretary of Defense, United States

21 FIRST PLENARY SESSION The US approach to regional security Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, United States Secretary Hagel commenced his address to the first plenary session by remarking that, though his perspective was different from when he spoke (as a senator) at the first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, his message about the Asia-Pacific s critical importance was similar. Having made reference to his lifetime of military and civilian connections with Asia, Hagel remarked that when he left the Senate in 2009, it was apparent to me that the US would need to rebalance its capabilities and resources toward the Asia-Pacific region as it was winding down from two wars and reviewing its global interests and responsibilities. However, he stressed that the rebalance did not mean that the United States was in retreat from other regions. In Secretary Hagel s view, there was a range of persistent and emerging threats in Asia: North Korea s nuclear and missile programmes, and its provocations; continuing land and maritime disputes and conflicts over resources; threats posed by natural disaster, poverty, and pandemic disease; environmental degradation; illegal trafficking; and the growing threats of disruptive activities in space and cyberspace. To meet these challenges, he said, the United States and other Asia-Pacific nations needed to cooperate more closely. The US rebalance supported that goal. It is primarily a diplomatic, economic and cultural strategy. However, the US Department of Defense had an important role to play in the rebalance, despite its reduced resources. Resources would be matched to the most important priorities, so that our defense enterprise would better reflect 21st century security realities including the rise of Asia. The United States would continue to implement the rebalance and prioritise the Asia-Pacific. Hagel proceeded to enumerate aspects of the strengthening US military posture in the region. With the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States was adding to the capacity of its ground forces in the Pacific. Sixty per cent of naval assets would be forward-based in the Pacific by 2020, while the US Air 18 The Shangri-La Dialogue

22 Force had allocated 60% of its overseas-based forces to the region, as well as a similar percentage of its space and cyber capabilities. At the same time, the country was using its military assets in new ways to enhance our posture and partnerships, including through the rotation of Littoral Combat Ships through Singapore and US marines through Darwin. In future, according to Hagel, the United States would prioritise deployments to the Pacific of our most advanced platforms, including the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to Japan, and a fourth Virginia-class attack submarine to Guam. New concepts, doctrine and plans would integrate new technologies and capabilities, including remotelypiloted vehicles and directed-energy weapons, to ensure freedom of action throughout the region well into the future. Building a network of professional military personnel; and security experts across the region was another important US investment, particularly through expanding the size and scope of joint exercises, and boosting defence education. Secretary Hagel argued, though, that continued investment in our alliances and partnerships, and the region s security architecture were even more important. For this reason, the United States had begun with each of its treaty allies in the region to define a new, forward-looking agenda. Initiatives include: a review of the Defense Guidelines underpinning the alliance with Japan; implementation of Strategic Alliance 2015 with the Republic of Korea; expanded cooperation with Australia, such as deployment of an Australian ship as part of a US carrier group; discussing with the Philippines an increased rotational presence of US forces; and a Joint Vision Statement with Thailand. At the same time, the United States has encouraged its allies to work more closely together. The United States is also seeking to strengthen defence relations with other security partners, according to Secretary Hagel. Measures would include building on practical collaboration with Singapore, developing new avenues for defense cooperation with New Zealand, collaboration on maritime security and other areas with Vietnam, expanded maritime cooperation with Malaysia, and carefully calibrated military-to-military engagement with Burma. The United States was working with our closest and most capable allies and partners to develop and deploy cutting-edge technologies to tackle emerging security challenges. An important example was US cooperation with India, whose capability enhancement efforts were a welcome contribution to security in the region. As part of its long-term strategy in Asia, the United States was seeking to build strong relations with rising powers. The United States and Indonesia were building new habits of cooperation. Crucially, Secretary Hagel said that building a positive and constructive relationship with China was also an essential part of America s rebalance to Asia. The United States has consistently supported a role for China in regional and global economic and security institutions. The United States and China will have our differences, but these could be addressed through continuous and respectful dialogue. It was, at the same time, necessary to build trust and reduce the risk of miscalculation, particularly between our militaries. Dialogue between the US and Chinese armed forces was steadily improving. But it remained important for both sides to provide clarity and predictability about each other s [sic] current and future strategic intentions. The United States sought a future security order where regional institutions move beyond aspiration to achieving real results. ASEAN had set the stage for regional cooperation, and its member states played a critical role in the regional security architecture, including the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ADMM-Plus, which was facilitating tangible and practical security cooperation. Secretary Hagel noted that China, Vietnam, Singapore and Japan would co-host with Brunei a HADR and military medicine exercise in which the United States would participate. Hagel mentioned that he was inviting the ASEAN defence ministers to a meeting in Hawaii next year in order to discuss a shared vision for a dynamic, peaceful, and secure future for the region. Secretary Hagel remarked that some nations continued to dismiss the foundational principles, including adherence to the rule of law and the principle of resolving conflict without the use of force, which he said had enabled the region s success. He First plenary session 19

23 said that the United States would not stand by while North Korea seeks to develop a nuclear-armed missile that can target the United States. US steps to defend its homeland and its allies included significantly bolstering missile defense throughout the Pacific. The United States also remained concerned about the potential for miscalculation and crises posed by competing territorial claims, and stood firmly against any coercive attempts to alter the status quo. In the South China Sea, the United States called on all claimants to exercise restraint and supported the establishment of hotlines between China and ASEAN members to help manage maritime incidents. Secretary Hagel emphasised the need for common rules of the road in new domains, notably cyberspace. The United States was increasing investment in cyber security and deepening cyber cooperation with allies in the region and globally. He mentioned US concerns over the growing threat of cyber intrusions, some apparently tied to the Chinese government and military. Concluding, Hagel said that this was a hopeful as well as complex and challenging time: in his view, decisions made today would influence the unfolding future in what will undoubtedly be a Pacific century. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Secretary Hagel responded to an array of points raised by delegates. François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS, followed up a question he had asked then-secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, at the previous year s Dialogue, and asked about the impact of sequestration on the United States strategic guidelines. The Secretary of Defense replied that our strategic interests are very clear in the Asia-Pacific and we will continue to match our resources to fulfil the commitments that we have made to our allies, to our partners in this region. Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, asked what else could be done to prevent further use of coercion to change the status quo in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Secretary Hagel s response was that maritime disputes should be resolved through dialogue and legal mechanisms: military options should not be considered. Major General Yao Yunzhu, Director, Center for China-America Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, Chinese People s Liberation Army, thanked Secretary Hagel for mentioning China several times. She asked the Defense Secretary how he could reassure China that the US rebalance was indeed part of an effort to build a more positive and constructive relationship, and how the two responsibilities of reassuring allies and at the same time positively engaging China could be reconciled. Hagel responded that the United States welcomed a strong and emerging and responsible China, and hoped that China would take on responsibilities for security in Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS Bonnie Glaser, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies Major General Yao Yunzhu, Director, Center for China-America Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, People s Liberation Army 20 The Shangri-La Dialogue

24 the region. Closer military-to-military relationships should help reassure China about US intentions. Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, and Editor of Survival, IISS, asked about the implications of President Obama s speech in late May 2013 about how the residual threat from terrorism could be combated while remaining faithful to rule of law. Secretary Hagel emphasised that the centrepiece of the President s speech was that the United States had to stay within the framework of law and that the United States could not preach law and order to other nations unless it complied itself. First plenary session 21

25 22 The Shangri-La Dialogue

26 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 3 Defending national interests; preventing conflict second plenary session Saturday 1 June 2013, am SPEAKERS Itsunori Onodera Minister of Defense, Japan Catherine Ashton High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão Prime Minister and Minister for Defense and Security, Timor Leste

27 SECOND PLENARY SESSION Defending national interests; preventing conflict Itsunori Onodera, Minister of Defense, Japan Under a new government determined to strengthen the country, Japan intends to play a responsible and more active role regionally and globally. On that note, Itsunori Onodera, Japan s Defense Minister, began his address to the second plenary session of the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue. Japan s defence budget has risen in 2013, for the first time in 11 years, and in light of a deteriorating regional security environment the government is reviewing the national defence posture with three aims in mind: defence of national territory and territorial waters; strengthening the US Japan alliance; and contributing to international security. Furthermore, Japan is considering the creation of a National Security Council as well as legal changes to permit the military to engage in international missions. Onodera stressed that Japan was not becoming more hawkish; rather, the country wishes through a more active policy to make a positive contribution to stability and the promotion of common values such as freedom and the rule of law. Perhaps anticipating questions from the floor about what a stronger Japan denoted, he disavowed remarks by an opposition leader and a city mayor regarding Japan s conduct during the Second World War. He emphasised that this was not the position of the Abe administration, which held to the line set out by previous Japanese governments that Japan had caused tremendous damage to many Asian states, acknowledged the fact, expressed its remorse and apologised. These remarks drew praise during the questions and answers. Turning to cooperation with ASEAN, the Minister stated Japan s desire to be an equal partner with the regional grouping in the pursuit of stability and universal values. He highlighted three priority areas: maritime security and the importance of establishing a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea; promotion of the ASEAN-centred architecture, including the Asian Regional Forum (ARF) and ADMM-Plus; and building capacity within ASEAN through cooperation and 24 The Shangri-La Dialogue

28 Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy training. This, he added, is what the new government means by a strong Japan. Onodera welcomed the US rebalance to the Asia- Pacific, and asserted that its success depended on the active support of US allies and partners. He promised that Japan would play its role in this while also reaching out to like-minded partners such as South Korea and Australia. Onodera promised that Japan would act with restraint on matters of dispute among regional states but he called for the establishment of crisis-management mechanisms as a matter of urgency. Catherine Ashton, the EU s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, announced that her presence at the Dialogue underlined the EU s interest in Asian security. Many of the security problems with which Asia and Europe are grappling are global, she argued. These included non-proliferation, terrorism, climate change, energy insecurity and cyber threats. Solving them requires regional and global cooperation. Already the EU has concluded bilateral agreements with a number of Southeast Asian states to combat non-traditional security threats. She asserted that the EU External Action Service s unique capabilities as a security actor lay in its combination of hard power and soft power bringing together the functions of a foreign ministry with some of the functions of development and defence ministries, to tackle root causes as well as immediate symptoms. One of the EU s major contributions to Asian security is the anti-piracy operation off the Horn of Africa, Ashton claimed. Under her leadership, separate and uncoordinated EU initiatives on Somali state-rebuilding, support for the rule of law in regional states, development work, and counter-piracy had been brought together into a coherent strategy, which had yielded impressive results including a 95% decrease in piracy off the coast of Somalia in the last two years. Turning to Asia itself, Ashton noted that the EU was now seeking to support peacebuilding, development and a political transition in Myanmar. She added that the EU was a true partner of Asia with unique capabilities; and its interest lay not in projecting power but in empowering. Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, the Prime Minister and Defence Minister of Timor Leste, widened the debate by adding the perspective of a small, young state that has recently emerged from conflict. He noted that, globally, 1.5 billion people live in areas affected by state weakness, organised crime or conflict. They are trapped in poverty, hunger and disease. Security and peace are prerequisites for development and achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015 but, the Prime Minister noted, no fragile state is likely to meet that target. Gusmão observed that violent confrontation was prevalent globally, and so more space was needed for dialogue and preventative measures. He warned that Second plenary session 25

29 Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, Prime Minister and Minister for Defense and Security, Timor Leste the pursuit of national interests could create tension and visit disproportionate harm on the population of poorer states. Turning to Timor Leste s role in Asian security, Gusmão said that his country was ready to contribute to a stable regional environment and was committed to joining ASEAN. He appealed for the wealthy nations of the world to produce a Marshall Plan-type package for Kiribati, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, which are threatened by rising sea levels. Small, weak countries, he added, cannot defend their territory and territorial waters as larger states can. He voiced concern that some of the large powers seemed to be preparing for conflict and wondered whether this was being done partly to deter smaller states from asserting sovereignty over their resources. Multinational interests, he added, had worked to destabilise some countries and it was necessary to prioritise human security and dignity. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Many of the delegates questions concerned Japan. In response to a question from Barry Desker, Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, about whether Japan might respond to the threat posed by North Korea by seeking its own nuclear-weapons capability, Onodera insisted that Japan had no such intention. The country would hold firm to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. Professor Nick Bisley of La Trobe University and Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS Asia, asked the Minister to elaborate on the questions of constitutional change and the creation of a National Security Council. On the latter point, Onodera said that legislation was soon to be put before the Diet to create a council to coordinate defence, foreign and security policy and that it would probably include the Prime Minister, the defence and foreign ministers, and the chief cabinet secretary. On the question of Japan s constitutional restrictions on the employment of the military, Onodera said that the government was pondering how to address the issue and would proceed in a more sensitive manner than during Shinzo Abe s first term as Prime Minister. A prerequisite would be to raise public understanding regarding the constitutional question. Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, Foreign Affairs Office, Ministry of National Defense, China commented that Minister Onodera s speech was encouraging in its recognition that Japan had invaded other countries and that the lesson was to pursue common security. Senior Colonel Zhou said he hoped that Japan s actions would match these words. If this was the case, there was a very optimistic future for the region. Minister Onodera acknowledged this warm comment, remarked on the shared culture of Japan and China, and said that establishing a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship that could overcome 26 The Shangri-La Dialogue

30 Barry Desker, Dean, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Nick Bisley, Professor of International Relations, School of Social Sciences, La Trobe University Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS Asia Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, Senior Officer, Foreign Affairs Office, Ministry of National Defense Stanley Roth, Vice-President, International Government Relations, Boeing International Fleur De Villiers, Chairman of the Trustees, IISS the few issues between the two countries was a central challenge for the Abe administration. Stanley Roth, vice-president at Boeing International, asked Gusmão about Timor Leste s experience of post-conflict stabilisation and the role of peacekeeping forces, which the Prime Minister had criticised during his speech. Gusmão responded that he wanted peacekeeping forces to tackle more directly the needs of conflict zones and to coordinate more effectively their efforts to address the full range of conflict-inducing factors. International missions often fail to communicate effectively with the population of conflict-affected areas, he said, and this leads to deployments being lengthier and more expensive than is necessary. Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the IISS Trustees, asked Ashton whether the EEAS was in fact in a position to deploy hard power as well as soft power, given the different attitudes of EU member states towards the deployment of troops. Ashton answered that she distinguished between using military assets and the deployment of military power, implying that she was referring principally to the former. She noted that the EU currently had four military operations under way and that training and capacity-building loomed large within them. Second plenary session 27

31 28 The Shangri-La Dialogue

32 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 4 Military modernisation and strategic transparency third plenary session Saturday 1 June 2013, noon SPEAKERS Purnomo Yusgiantoro Minister of Defense, Indonesia Stephen Smith Minister for Defence, Australia Philip Hammond Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom

33 THIRD PLENARY SESSION Military modernisation and strategic transparency Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Minister of Defense, Indonesia Leading off the session, Indonesian Defence Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said that under its current military modernisation plan, defence spending in his country has risen to 1.3% of GDP, up from a low of 0.6% in 2001 after the Asian financial crisis. The 1.3% level will be maintained or even increased. Military modernisation is linked to military reform, based on principles of democracy and human rights. Military modernisation is also motivated by Indonesia s desire to play an increasing role in UN peacekeeping operations. One should be mindful, he added, of how inaccurate perceptions can create miscalculation, misjudgement and mistrust. Strategic transparency is thus needed in order to avoid a destabilising arms race. Transparency begins at home with an open and democratic system of government. Bilateral defence dialogues also serve transparency. In this regard, Australia s offer to consult neighbours in formulating its May 2013 Defence White Paper was a muchappreciated example. Non-governmental organisations, such as the IISS, also play a helpful role in enhancing transparency. In speaking of the need for strategic transparency, Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith said military modernisation is a natural part of any country s economic development. Australia does encourage all countries, however, to be open about their defence policies, procurement plans and strategic intentions. The requirement for strategic transparency within the region applies to all countries, not only China. White Papers are an opportunity for governments to lay out their defence policies and postures and to provide assessments of their security environment. Australia s own Defence White Paper recognised the emergence of a new Indo-Pacific strategic arc, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans through Southeast Asia. The alliance with the United States remains Australia s most important military relationship and has never been stronger, as reflected by the expansion of practical cooperation to cyber and space and the rotational training deployments of US marines to Darwin. 30 The Shangri-La Dialogue

34 Stephen Smith, Minister for Defence, Australia British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond said the UK is committed to developing closer economic, diplomatic and defence ties with countries across Asia. In an increasingly interconnected world and given the significant military modernisation being undertaken across the region, the UK has a strong interest in ensuring that increased military strength is used responsibly, in support of a rules-based international system. The sustained growth in China s defence budget is the most obvious demonstration of this process of modernisation, but China is not the only power upgrading its defence capabilities. The UK, too, is modernising its forces, supported by what remains the world s 4th largest defence budget. Among other capabilities, the UK will replace ballistic-missile submarines to maintain continuous at-sea deterrence with the Trident missile. This military modernisation is taking place within a context of multilateralism and transparency. Showing how it is possible to manage territorial disputes within a multilateral framework, the unresolved dispute over Gibraltar does not interfere with close cooperation between Spain and the UK in NATO and the EU. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Eight delegates posed questions. William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia Pacific Security at IISS Asia, asked how Australia s 2013 Defence White Paper would be characterised, given that the 2009 version was seen as a red flag directed at China. He also asked if Australia would still send naval forces to assist the United States in the event of a crisis involving the Taiwan Strait, as was stated by then Prime Minister John Howard in Finally, what role could the Five Powers Defence Arrangements (FPDA) play in future contingencies? Minister Smith said the new White Paper mapped out a coherent strategic analysis of not just Asia-Pacific, but the Indo- Pacific, from Hollywood to Bollywood. Reflecting India s growing role, an upcoming visit to Australia by Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony would be the first visit of its kind. He would not comment on hypotheticals, but noted that the 62-year-old alliance with the United States had been invoked only once, in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on the United States on 11 September Regarding the last question, he could envisage future circumstances in which the FPDA could contribute to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Lieutenant-General (retd.) Noboru Yamaguchi of the Japanese National Defence Academy noted the tremendous strides made by the region in defence transparency over the past 15 years. He asked if the current regional naval build-up could be put to some cooperative purpose, such as in UN peacekeeping operations. In response, Pak Purnomo elaborated on several areas of cooperation among various ASEAN Third plenary session 31

35 Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom countries, especially under the umbrella of ADMM- Plus. Indonesia wants to become one of the ten largest contributors to UN peacekeeping, and is building a huge peacekeeping operations centre. Hammond commented that in the maritime realm, nations of the worlds have collaborated remarkably, including some very unlikely bedfellows in tackling maritime piracy off the Horn of Africa and in the Gulf of Aden. Commenting on Hammond s remarks about China s military modernisation, Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo from the People s Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences said China spends only 1.3% of its GDP on defence, less than most other countries, including the UK, and that the PLA had neither fought an external war in 30 years nor deployed forces abroad, except for peacekeeping. Dr Chipman, as chair, noted that the IISS Military Balance assesses Chinese military expenditure against a number of indicators and offers forecasts of how Chinese defence expenditure might look in comparison with spending by other powers over the next years. Smith and Hammond echoed the need to look at other measures of defence expenditure. Hammond added that it is the rate of change that is potentially destabilising. As for force deployments, the long and current combat experience by UK forces allows Britain to deliver capability and usability out of proportion to the size of its forces. In response to a question from Admiral Edouard Dr William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia Pacific Security, IISS Asia Lieutenant-General (retd.) Noboru Yamaguchi, Professor and Director for International Programs, National Defence Academy Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo, Senior Researcher, Academy of Military Sciences, People s Liberation Army 32 The Shangri-La Dialogue

36 Admiral Edouard Guillaud, Chief of the Defence Staff, France Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto, Senior Analyst, Maritime Security Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Ekaterina Koldunova, Deputy Dean, School of Political Affairs, Moscow State Institute of International Relations Guillaud, Chief of the Defence Staff of France, Purnomo said cyberspace defence was not yet a topic of talks within ASEAN, but probably would be in the future. Hammond commented on the increasing vulnerability of the satellites upon which so many military systems depend. Answering a question from Brigadier (retd.) Benjamin Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, Hammond said he absolutely stood by the commitment that the UK s former defence secretary, Liam Fox, had made regarding doing more in the region. As an example, HMS Daring, a new Type-45 air-defence destroyer, is on its way to the Pacific to spend more than six months engaging in joint exercises and visiting countries in the region. He said this was a level of naval engagement that has not been seen for many years. Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto, Senior Analyst in the Maritime Security Programme at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, asked about implementation of the defence cooperation arrangement signed by Indonesia and Australia last year and when Indonesia planned to publish its next defence white paper. Pak Purnomo replied that Indonesia had joined the Pitch Black air force exercise in Darwin and that the White Paper was in the process of being updated, in consultation with neighbouring countries. In response to a question from Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia Pacific Security at IISS Asia, Hammond said the Information Security Act (ISA) signed last year between the UK and Japan pointed to a step change in collaboration in both cyber-defence and defence equipment following Japan s changed policy position on defence exports and collaboration with other countries in the development of defence technologies. Ekaterina Koldunova, Deputy Dean of the School of Political Affairs at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, asked if there were any plans for military or defence integration within ASEAN. Pak Purnomo replied that this was unlikely: ASEAN s founding fathers did not envision it becoming a military alliance and Indonesia, at least, had no intention of joining a military pact. Third plenary session 33

37 34 The Shangri-La Dialogue

38 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 5 Simultaneous special sessions Saturday 1 June 2013 Session 1 Avoiding incidents at sea Session 2 The Afghan drawdown and regional security Session 3 Missile defence in the Asia-Pacific Session 4 New military technologies and doctrines Session 5 Defence diplomacy and conflict prevention Session 6 The cyber dimension to Asian security

39 SPECIAL SESSION 1 Avoiding incidents at sea CHAIR Alexander Neill Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS Asia OPENING REMARKS Admiral Samuel Locklear Commander, United States Pacific Command Junichi Ihara Director-General, North American Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan Admiral D.K. Joshi Chief of Naval Staff, India The session unsurprisingly saw wide agreement on the desirability of avoiding incidents at sea, given the risk to life and the possibility of escalation. Panellists largely agreed that good seamanship and training were key. However, multiple layers of regulation and law could, in the heat of the moment, confuse rather than clarify. A Chinese participant and an Indian panellist argued the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was not a holy bible, but rather a document ripe for interpretation. A Chinese participant confirmed that the PLA Navy had conducted unspecified activities in the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around Guam and Hawaii, and said this was not perceived in Beijing as illegal or hypocritical. Hotlines were debated: participants said they were only as effective as their operators wished them to be. A discussion of the 1972 US-Soviet Incidents at Sea Agreement (INCSEA) as a possible model for East Asia raised questions over its applicability to a different, 36 The Shangri-La Dialogue

40 Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander, United States Pacific Command Admiral D.K. Joshi, Chief of Naval Staff, India Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS Asia Junichi Ihara, Director-General, North American Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan multilateral theatre. It was also pointed out that a focus on navies in such a discussion failed to address the fact that most incidents in the East and South China Seas involved maritime law-enforcement agencies and not navies. Finally, the matter of trust was raised: it was unclear whether trust was needed to develop mechanisms to avoid incidents, or whether the mechanisms would build the trust. Special session 1 37

41 SPECIAL SESSION 2 The Afghan drawdown and regional security CHAIR Dr Nicholas Redman Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, IISS OPENING REMARKS Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi Director-General (Analysis), Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan Mikhail Margelov Chairman, Committee for Foreign Affairs, Council of the Federation, Russia General Richard Barrons Commander, Joint Force Command, UK General Knud Bartels Chairman, NATO Military Committee Delegates explored the transition of security from NATO to Afghan responsibility, leading to the withdrawal of NATO combat forces by end Russia was pessimistic, considering that the chances of destabilisation of Afghanistan would increase over time. Both Islamic extremism and increased flow of narcotics could ripple outwards to Central Asia and beyond. For this reason Moscow would continue to provide political and economic support to the Afghan government and training and equipment to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Pakistan shared this pessimism. Money and middle-class people were already flowing from Kabul to Peshawar and beyond. The ANSF would find it increasingly difficult to cope. Any settlement with the Taliban had to be broadly based and accommodate the legitimate concerns of ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks. Although Pakistan would act as an interlocutor, stitching together a peace deal would be difficult. 38 The Shangri-La Dialogue

42 Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi, Director- General (Analysis), Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan General Knud Bartels, Chairman, NATO Military Committee Mikhail Margelov, Chairman, Committee for Foreign Affairs, Council of the Federation, Russia Dr Nicholas Redman, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, IISS General Richard Barrons, Commander, Joint Force Command, UK The United Kingdom, however, was cautiously optimistic that the military transition would occur as planned. But it was essential to reassure the Afghans that the international community would still support them. NATO shared the UK s assessment: the ANSF were still short of key enabling capabilities, including medical, logistics and counter-ied, but there was still 18 months to help develop these areas. Special session 2 39

43 SPECIAL SESSION 3 Missile defence in the Asia-Pacific CHAIR Mark Fitzpatrick Director, Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS OPENING REMARKS Anatoly Antonov Deputy Minister of Defence, Russia Major-General Michael Keltz Director, Strategic Planning and Policy, US Pacific Command Major-General Yao Yunzhu Director, Center for China-America Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, PLA, China Dr Chung Min Lee Professor of International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea; Adjunct Senior Fellow for Asian Security Affairs, IISS That regional missile defence is a vexed issue was readily apparent in this session. Chinese and Russian officials expressed concerns over the approach being pursued by Washington and its regional partners, while American and South Korean panellists argued there was a clear imperative to be able to counter any missile threat from Pyongyang. Major-General Yao Yunzhu of the PLA contended that the introduction of US-supported ballistic-missile defence into the region was detrimental to strategic stability and undermined US Chinese strategic trust. Russia s Antonov voiced concern about what Moscow viewed as the unilateral deployment of strategic missile defences in the region. US Pacific Command s Major-General Keltz said it was not unilateral: there had been a dialogue with key partners including South Korea and Japan, from which it was concluded that the capability was badly required. There was a moral imperative given the nature of the threat these countries faced from North 40 The Shangri-La Dialogue

44 Dr Chung Min Lee, Professor of International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea Major-General Michael Keltz, Director, Strategic Planning and Policy, US Pacific Command Major-General Yao Yunzhu, Director, Center for China-America Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, PLA, China Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defence, Russia Korea. Keltz noted that Beijing was itself pursuing a missile-defence programme. South Korea s Chung Min Lee argued that the South faced a clear and present strategic threat. Special session 3 41

45 SPECIAL SESSION 4 New military technologies and doctrines CHAIR Dr Tim Huxley Executive Director, IISS Asia OPENING REMARKS Admiral Edouard Guillaud Chief of Defence Staff, France Masanori Nishi Administrative Vice Minister of Defense, Japan Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo Senior Researcher, Academy of Military Science, PLA, China Participants analysed challenges in design, procurement and integration of new military technologies, as well as the effect that these could have on doctrine. Admiral Guillaud said new technologies and military doctrines were in constant evolution, and the winner is the one who anticipates... and adapts himself faster to ever-changing conditions. In the West, much military equipment in service was originally designed during the Cold War, but few platforms had been used for the high-intensity combat missions envisaged during the Cold War. On a similar theme, Nishi discussed Japanese main battle-tank and missile-defence procurements, and contrasted this with the flexible responses and different platforms that were needed in response to the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The increasing use of unmanned air systems had forced armed forces to take account of a new range of legal and ethical factors. According to Senior Colonel Zhao, unmanned systems had enlarged the battlefield, but required regulatory norms. 42 The Shangri-La Dialogue

46 Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo, Senior Researcher, Academy of Military Science, PLA, China Admiral Edouard Guillaud, Chief of Defence Staff, France Masanori Nishi, Administrative Vice Minister of Defense, Japan Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS Asia Delegates said doctrine had proved valuable in ensuring that existing technologies could adapt to current requirements, but while it could drive the development of new military technologies, technology could also challenge doctrine. Military technologies and doctrines were important, but modernising armed forces faced a common challenge: more complex weapons required better personnel. These would be expensive to train and come from a smaller talent pool where armed forces would face increasing competition from other employment sectors. Special session 4 43

47 SPECIAL SESSION 5 Defence diplomacy and conflict prevention CHAIR Alexander Nicoll Director of Editorial, IISS OPENING REMARKS Colonel (retd) Pengiran Dato Azmansham Mohamad Permanent Secretary for Defence, Brunei Commodore Aung Thaw Deputy Minister of Defence, Myanmar Tom McKane Director General, Security Policy, Ministry of Defence, UK The session focused on the need for various forms of multilateral mechanisms to cope with increasingly complex contingencies. The consensus was that countries in the 21st century were living in a global commons which necessitated practical cooperation, defence arrangements and common security policies. As countries seek to implement such mechanisms, they should also be cognisant of popular opinion, prevent escalation and develop defence diplomacy frameworks that are customised for particular regions. There was also much agreement that in the Asia-Pacific, diplomacy is as much about personal diplomacy as formal meetings. During the recent incursion in Sabah by Sulu militants from the Philippines, for example, the fact that the defence ministers from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines kept in close contact thanks to the exchange of phone numbers proved to be useful. Within the ADMM-Plus, there had been no shortage of initiatives, including discussions on information- 44 The Shangri-La Dialogue

48 Commodore Aung Thaw, Deputy Minister of Defence, Myanmar Colonel (retd) Pengiran Dato Azmansham Mohamad, Permanent Secretary for Defence, Brunei Alexander Nicoll, Director of Editorial, IISS Tom McKane, Director General, Security Policy, Ministry of Defence, UK sharing mechanisms for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief as well as the establishment of crisismanagement hotlines. However, participants noted that while there had been a proliferation of multilateral bodies in the region, there was a competitive element. An American proposal, for example, for the US Secretary of Defense to meet ASEAN defence ministers in Hawaii, could be construed as an American counter to China, which is conducting similar meetings with the same group of ministers. Special session 5 45

49 SPECIAL SESSION 6 The cyber dimension to Asian security CHAIR Nigel Inkster Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS OPENING REMARKS Lieutenant Colonel (retd.) Sazali Sukardi Vice-President, Research Division, CyberSecurity Malaysia Latha Reddy Former Deputy National Security Advisor, India Noboru Nakatani Executive Director, INTERPOL Global Complex for Innovation Dr Jamie Saunders Director, International Cyber Policy, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK Dr Zhang Ming Associate Research Professor, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, China The session found the international cyber-security discourse to be possibly at the end of its beginning. Panellists revisited common concerns, concluding that there was a general lack of rules of the road. International processes remain stalled because of ideological and political differences. The prevailing tone of the discourse was becoming one of threat, and the cyber domain was increasingly being militarised. Cyber security ranked high among nationalsecurity concerns in the region. But it was just one dimension of economic, social, political and military affairs. Problems created by the Internet crime, intellectual-property theft, and national-security threats should be resolved under redefined mandates of existing forums such as IGF/WSIS, Interpol, WTO, the UN First Committee and ECOSOC. Difficulty of attribution, lack of clear international legal consequences and potential collateral damage resulting from cyber attacks were pointed out as key 46 The Shangri-La Dialogue

50 Latha Reddy, former Deputy National Security Advisor, India Dr Zhang Ming, Associate Research Professor, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, China Noboru Nakatani, Executive Director, Interpol Global Complex for Innovation Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS Dr Jamie Saunders, Director, International Cyber Policy, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK Lieutenant Colonel (retd.) Sazali Sukardi, Vice- President, Research Division, CyberSecurity Malaysia concerns. While attribution of an attack was possible at the level of national-security bodies, this capability was largely unavailable to law-enforcement agencies, resulting in cyber criminals enjoying a sense of impunity. Panellists noted that when states developed and used disruptive and destructive capabilities, they created problems of escalation and miscalculation, which needed to be mitigated by confidence-building. The task ahead was not to let disagreement guide the dialogue. The international community would need to identify shared goals and the lowest common denominator of interests and priorities, and accept that it would be a slow process. Special session 6 47

51 48 The Shangri-La Dialogue

52 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 7 New trends in Asia- Pacific security fourth plenary session Sunday 2 June 2013, 9.15 am SPEAKER Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo Deputy Chief of General Staff, People s Liberation Army, China Voltaire Gazmin Secretary of National Defense, Philippines Peter MacKay Minister of National Defence, Canada

53 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION New trends in Asia-Pacific security Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo, Deputy Chief of General Staff, People s Liberation Army, China At the start of his address to the session, Deputy Chief of the PLA General Staff Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo observed that the Shangri-La Dialogue had completed one full circle of the traditional Chinese calendar and had matured as an institution. General Qi noted that there were four key aspects to China s development: peaceful development, open development, cooperative development and win-win development. Peaceful development was China s core goal. China s relatively recent experience of war, turmoil and poverty translated into a profound desire for peace. China had never pursued expansionist policies nor resorted to force. Security hot-spots kept appearing in China s neighbourhood but these should be resolved by peaceful negotiation. According to General Qi, China was increasingly engaging with the world and welcomed the world to engage with China. Cold-War mentalities and zerosum thinking should be set aside and states should refrain from pursuing military alliances. Diversity should be respected and states should not be categorised on the basis of their ideologies, nor should they demand that others be open and transparent whilst themselves unilaterally erecting barriers. Cooperative development requires mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination, General Qi said. China would always defend its core interests but believed that disputes should be set aside and solutions sought through dialogue and coordination, especially in respect of issues relating to sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. Resources should wherever possible be shared. China was becoming ever more closely integrated with the Asia-Pacific region, trade between China and ASEAN amounting to US$400 billion in For the past four years, China had been ASEAN s largest trading partner and ASEAN was China s third largest trading partner. General Qi asserted that the China dream was not just for China but was of benefit to all countries of the region. 54 The Shangri-La Dialogue

54 Voltaire Gazmin, Secretary of National Defense, Philippines Secretary of National Defense of the Philippines Voltaire Gazmin said that the Asia-Pacific region had shown itself to be economically resilient. Economic growth across Asia as a whole was expected to be 5.7% in 2013 and 6% in The defence sector had an important role in contributing to regional economic growth by mitigating security risks and thereby providing an environment conducive to economic development. In Secretary Gazmin s view, three new security trends could be identified in the region: the reemergence of previously dormant security concerns; new aspects of recognised non-traditional security concerns; and emerging security risks. The first category consisted of territorial disputes, insecurity in the Korean peninsula, military modernisation and an arms race. In confronting these, the region should cooperate to secure lasting stability through mechanisms provided by international law. The second group of concerns involved maritime security, disaster response and cyber security. Maritime security was no longer restricted to the protection of territorial waters but included illegal fishing, piracy, smuggling and poaching. This new agenda Peter MacKay, Minister of National Defence, Canada Fourth plenary session 55

55 involved the Philippine armed forces working with the nation s maritime enforcement agencies. In 2011, a National Coast Watch System had been established to promote synergy and a comprehensive approach to these problems. Militaries had always served as first responders in case of disaster but the Armed Forces of the Philippines were increasingly involved in disaster mitigation working with a range of other government agencies as part of a National Convergence Initiative. Meanwhile, cyber threats no longer emanated solely from individual hackers. Attacks on government networks increasingly came from organisations, and cyber-security strategies had to be adapted accordingly. The third category emerging security risks included concerns about food, water and energy security arising from climate change, and the challenges posed by ageing populations. Migration was another emerging problem, whether in terms of inward migration threatening to overwhelm receiving states or in terms of managing the risks to the populations of sending states. So too was the emerging issue of health security. In adapting to this new agenda there was a risk that armed forces might lose sight of the need to preserve their traditional competencies. The Philippines sought to achieve a balance by adopting a whole-of-government approach to security problems. Secretary Gazmin noted an encouraging trend towards discussion and consultation in relation to security threats within regional forums but talking was not enough. Trust and confidence-building measures were important but there also had to be practical cooperation and this was now starting to happen through the Asian Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus. Canada s Minister of National Defence, Peter MacKay, observed that security challenges were driven by geography and irreconcilable ideological differences as was the case in the Korean peninsula, and by conflicting strategic interests. In this context, relations between the United States and China were critical to regional stability. States in the Asia-Pacific region were developing blue-water navies. This was an issue of legitimate concern but also eminently understandable given the importance of sea lines for the Asia-Pacific region. The management of security challenges required engagement, security architectures and governance mechanisms. It was important to have a common set of parameters and principles for the effective conduct of international relations and there was an encouraging trend towards the development of regional institutions to promote such concepts, including the Organisation of American States, the African Union, and ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum. The ADMM-Plus fostered real trust and cooperation and Canada would like to join this arrangement, he said. The Asia-Pacific region, also referred to as the Indo-Pacific or by the term preferred in Canada, the Pan-Pacific region, was now a part of the global security dynamic. This explained why Australia and China were taking part in anti-piracy operations off the Gulf of Aden, South Korea and Singapore were participating in NATO s Afghan training mission and Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia were participating in international peacekeeping operations. Canada was heavily engaged in the region. There were more Canadian diplomats in Asia than anywhere else; after the United States, Asia was Canada s second largest trading partner; and the largest proportion of Canadian immigrants came from Asia. Canada s armed forces had undertaken 64 operations in the region and were keen to share their expertise in areas such as peacekeeping operations, civil military relations, military medicine, counter-terrorism, maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. The world was characterised by ever greater interdependence and inter-connectedness and Canada s wish to play a full part in the Asia-Pacific region was a reflection of this. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Many of the questions in this session from no less than 13 delegates in total were directed towards General Qi. Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, claimed that there was growing scepticism in the region regarding 56 The Shangri-La Dialogue

56 Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor and Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Times Dr Chikako Ueki, Professor, International Relations, Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies, Waseda University Lieutenant-General Dato Pahlawan Dr William Rangit Stevenson, Chief Executive, Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security Yoichi Kato, National Security Correspondent, The Asahi Shimbun China s commitment to peace, and asked why China was opposed to using arbitration mechanisms under UNCLOS to address maritime disputes. General Qi replied that China s peaceful development path was proven by history. China only sent warships to the East China Sea and South China Sea to exert sovereign power. China had a smooth dialogue channel with the Philippines, so it was unnecessary to submit the Scarborough Shoal dispute to the International Court of Justice. François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS, pointed out that China s long-standing policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons was not mentioned in the same way as previously in the latest Chinese Defence White Paper and asked about the significance of this. General Qi replied that China would stick firmly to its nuclear policy of no-first-use. Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor and Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Times, pointed to recent apparent questioning by Chinese academics and a PLA general of Japan s sovereignty over the Ryukyu Islands. General Qi said that China had not changed its policy on this matter. Dr Chikako Ueki from Waseda University asked what China was doing to ensure that its service personnel were aware of the dangers of inadvertent escalation. General Qi answered that the Chinese navy had strict codes of conduct as well as regular and professional training. Lieutenant-General Dato Pahlawan Dr William Rangit Stevenson, Chief Executive, Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security, wanted to know if China could make a greater effort to influence North Korea to follow international norms. General Qi referred to China s three stick-to principles, including the target of denuclearisation of the peninsula, and its active role in trying to resolve the crisis. Yoichi Kato, Fourth plenary session 57

57 Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS Asia Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS Dr Fen Osler Hampson, Distinguished Fellow and Director, Global Security Program, Centre for International Governance Innovation; Chancellor s Professor, Carleton University National Security Correspondent, The Asahi Shimbun, asked why China had apparently been reluctant for its Defence Minister to participate in the Shangri-La Dialogue and whether he would attend in 2014 and beyond. General Qi said that this was a good suggestion. In the PLA s opinion, he said, the Dialogue is a very good meeting which is important not only to the Asia-Pacific region, but also to the world. Delegates were received in a fair, transparent, open, friendly manner. General Qi thought the Defence Minister would attend the meeting as appropriate. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS Asia, asked Secretary Gazmin how the Armed Forces of the Philippines were adjusting in response to escalating tensions in the South China Sea, and how they might prevent incidents such as the recent incursion by a non-state group from the southern Philippines into Malaysia. Secretary Gazmin replied that efforts to modernise and upgrade the AFP s capability would lead to the Philippine National Police eventually assuming responsibility for internal security. The AFP and the Malaysian Armed Forces were in constant touch and were undertaking joint patrols to prevent further incidents across the border. Asked by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS if General Qi s claim that there was no need for international arbitration over conflicting claims in the South China Sea was reasonable, the Secretary answered that bringing the dispute to the UNCLOS arbitral tribunal was a peaceful way of validating our maritime entitlements. Dr Fen Osler Hampson from Carleton University asked Minister MacKay if Canada s post-afghanistan security priorities were shifting to the Indo-Pacific region. MacKay replied that he saw the ADMM [sic] to a large degree replicating in this region the role that NATO plays for the Atlantic and Canada wants to be at that table. 58 The Shangri-La Dialogue

58 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue chapter 8 Advancing defence cooperation in the Asia-Pacific fifth plenary session Sunday 2 June 2013, am SPEAKERS Jean-Yves Le Drian Minister of Defence, France Colonel General Nguyen Chi Vinh Deputy Minister of National Defence, Vietnam Dr Ng Eng Hen Minister for Defence, Singapore

59 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION Advancing defence cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian opened the session with a speech emphasising the realities of relative powers and common security. As the world s centre of economic growth for 30 years, the Asia-Pacific remained a strategic interest of France, which sees itself as an Indian and Pacific Ocean power. Despite budget constraints, France would not abandon this vocation, as confirmed in the government s most recent Defence White Paper. That paper, Le Drian reported, identifies three major categories of threat for Asia-Pacific as well as Europe. These included, first, the threat of traditional inter-state war, particularly salient in a region where geopolitical disputes endure, where many countries are modernising their forces and increasing their defence spending, where an overarching security architecture has not been created, and where nationalist claims, with a sad echo for us Europeans, hindered cooperation. The second category of threats was born of weakness in such states as Mali, Somalia, Afghanistan, and other places where states are unable to exert control over their territories. Finally, there were threats spread by globalisation, including nuclear, ballistic-missile and chemical proliferation, as well as the development of offensive IT capabilities. In response to these risks, France would play an active role in intensifying political-military dialogue, military cooperation, arms sales and the promotion of regional security architecture. The legitimacy of international politics depended on bilateral and multilateral dialogue. The Minister quoted Raymond Aron, who had called the Cold War an era of unlikely war and impossible peace. In the Asia-Pacific, while conflict and war were even more possible then elsewhere, peace and development were an absolute requirement. The Shangri-La Dialogue contributes to fulfilling that requirement, said the Minister. Vietnam s Deputy Defence Minister, Colonel General Nguyen Chi Vinh, conveyed the best wishes of Defence Minister Phung Quang Thanh as well as his regrets that unexpected circumstances prevented him 60 The Shangri-La Dialogue

60 Colonel General Nguyen Chi Vinh, Deputy Minister of National Defence, Vietnam from attending in person. The Deputy Minister started by noting his region s great progress and major opportunities, but added that there were reasons for concern about regional stability. Military competition was driving a new arms race. On the positive side, even though a durable architecture for stability was lacking, defence cooperation was expanding. He noted the progress of ASEAN in building mutual confidence, as well as the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting and the establishment of ADMM-Plus in Hanoi three years ago. Other positive examples included the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Shangri-La Dialogue. All these forums needed to combine commitment with actions, and take account of public opinion and the principles of international law. As an example of the former, the Deputy Minister cited Vietnam s deployment of military personnel to Brunei to join ADMM-Plus field exercises on HADR and Military Medicine, Vietnam s first overseas troop deployment to participate in multilateral exercises. In addition, Vietnam had proposed the establishment of a Humanitarian Mine Action Group. The Deputy Minister repeated a proposal for a hotline between ASEAN defence ministers, and for cultural and sports exchanges among ASEAN countries with troops stationed in the Spratly Islands. Significantly, he also suggested that ASEAN defence ministers consider a no-first-use-of-force agreement that could later be expanded to other states of the region. He concluded with reference to two of Vietnam s major strategic concerns. Firstly, he said that Vietnam, at the lower delta of the Mekong River and on the rim of the Pacific Ocean, is one of the five countries most threatened by climate change and rising sea levels. Secondly, having suffered from decades of war, Vietnam was actively seeking solutions to disputes in the South China Sea on the basis of international law, notably the UN s 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea. He noted that Vietnam was determined to maintain the security and safety of international sea-lanes as well as its own rights within its Economic Exclusive Zone. The use of force and other inhumane actions against fishermen are unacceptable, he said, adding: These are the common norms of international laws and the moral codes of the present day world. Singapore Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen delivered the conference s valedictory speech. He spoke of the dramatic and virtuous effects of Asia s rise. It was a growth engine that helped keep the global economy afloat after the financial crisis of Over three decades, the number of people afflicted by extreme poverty in the region has been halved, from 1.7 billion to 753 million. Having rejected both colonialism and communist autarky, Asian nations have found common cause in globalisation. But this progress could be derailed. Increasing confidence has fed into military modernisation, and while increased confidence has brought Asian economies to take on more active and constructive roles in international institu- Fifth plenary session 61

61 Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore tions, there is also a threat from rising nationalism spilling into contests over sovereignty and territorial claims, notably in the East China Sea. The Minister pointed to the shooting of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippine Coast Guard and the ensuing protests and sanctions from Taiwan. Beyond the risk of conflict, development is impeded by these tensions; for example, it was hard for large reservoirs of much needed gas and oil to be found and extracted given the current tensions. In response, the Minister outlined three frameworks for cooperation. Security should not be the main focus, which is why Singapore is supporting a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership of the ten ASEAN states and its six FTA partners. This would be the world s largest trading arrangement. Security communities, notably existing forums such as the Shangri-La Dialogue, ADMM-Plus, EAS and ARF, can complement this economic focus. The credibility of these groups depends on concrete outcomes, and the Minister suggested three. Firstly, practical cooperation between militaries should build understanding, if not trust. In this context he noted the current month s ADMM-Plus exercises in Brunei. Secondly, these organisations have a natural vocation for tackling non-traditional security threats including piracy, proliferation and natural disasters. In Southeast Asia, the Malacca Straits Sea Patrols have been working against piracy. The Proliferation Security Initiative is pragmatic and action-oriented. And ADMM-Plus working groups have forged cooperation in areas of humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, military medicine, maritime security, peacekeeping, counter-terrorism and humanitarian mine-clearance, to deal with the painful remnants of war in the region. Finally, effective channels of communication are needed to prevent or mitigate escalation in tensions. In this context, Singapore supported Vietnam s initiative for a no first use of force agreement, as well as Brunei s proposal for a network of hotlines to deal with conflicts and tensions at sea. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS In the following discussion, Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform noted that Minister Le Drian had spoken at length on France s role in East Asian security, but didn t mention the European Union. Was this deliberate or was it an accident?. Tsuneo Watanabe of the Tokyo Foundation asked both Le Drian and Deputy Minister Nguyen Chi Vinh about their country s respective roles in regional humanitarian operations. Dana Allin of the IISS wondered whether the continuing economic crisis would hinder France s ability to lead a confident population for an extroverted global role. Carlyle Thayer of the Australian Defence Force Academy asked about French Vietnamese discussions on a strategic partnership agreement. Nam Nguyen of the Royal Australian Navy wondered whether pro- 62 The Shangri-La Dialogue

62 Charles Grant, Director, Centre for European Reform Tsuneo Watanabe, Director, Policy Research and Senior Fellow, Tokyo Foundation Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival, IISS Professor Carlyle Thayer, Emeritus Professor, Australian Defence Force Academy, University of New South Wales; Director, Thayer Consultancy Nam Nguyen, Maritime Warfare Officer, Royal Australian Navy Dr Fu Kuo Liu, Research Fellow, Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University posed initiatives went beyond token engagements and purely superficial military exercises. Fu Kuo Liu of the National Chengchi University, recalling an incident involving a Vietnamese patrol boat close to Taiping Island, said that he personally and, he believed, his government, would support the proposed no-firstuse-of-force agreement. May-Britt Stumbaum, from the Free University Berlin, asked for thoughts on the pressing issue of water demand, which she projected to outgrow supply by the end of this decade. Lieutenant- Colonel Lu Yin, associate professor at the PLA National Defence University, asked Le Drian if France was likely to initiate new sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear programme. Nick Bisley of Le Trobe University worried that the expanding membership of groupings such as ADMM-Plus would dilute and diminish their effectiveness. Alexander Neill of IISS Asia wondered if there was a way to curb nationalism at the source to prevent conflict. Lieutenant-General William Stevenson of the Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security asked the Vietnamese and Singapore ministers whether defence-industrial cooperation among ASEAN states was sustainable. Shafqat Muni from the Bangladesh Institute for Peace and Security Studies asked how defence cooperation might prepare militaries to deal with the security implications of climate change. Rizwana Karim Abbasi from the National Defence University in Islamabad asked about France s policy on buying drone technology from Israel. Finally, James Hackett, Editor of The Military Balance, IISS, asked if France has been on the receiving end of cyber intrusions. In response to the last question, Minister Le Drian replied that he had no intention of using this forum to reveal to the entire world whether there have been cyber-attacks on French defence systems. But it was Fifth plenary session 63

63 Dr May-Britt Stumbaum, Head, NFG Research Group, Asian Perceptions of the EU, Free University of Berlin Lieutenant Colonel Lu Yin, Associate Professor, Department of Strategic Education and Studies, National Defence University, PLA, China Lieutenant-General Dato Pahlawan Dr William Rangit Stevenson, Chief Executive, Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security Shafqat Munir, Associate Research Fellow, Bangladesh Institute for Peace and Security Studies Dr Rizwana Karim Abbasi, Assistant Professor, Department of Strategic and Nuclear Studies, National Defence University, Islamabad James Hackett, Editor of The Military Balance, IISS something that is happening in our world today. On drones, there are two countries supplying them: Israel and the United States, and France would choose on the basis of financial and technical considerations. On French ability to conduct security policy during economic crisis, he said that France will honour its commitments and obtain the resources. In response to Charles Grant s question on the EU s role, he said that although he was here representing only France it was clear that Europe more broadly has a role in fighting terrorism, proliferation, cyber threats and piracy, and he gave as examples Operation Atalanta against priacy and the EU role in organising sanctions against both North Korean and Iranian proliferation. Deputy Minister Nguyen Chi Vinh addressed his answers mainly to the question of Vietnam s exposure to and keen interest in addressing natural diasters. There is not a single year when we do not have floods, severe storms affecting the lives of people. The Deputy Minister also reiterated his country s commitment to the initiative for a no-first-use-of-force agreement. In responding to the long list of points, Minister Ng Eng Hen identified the central question and recurrent theme as how do you build strategic trust. He noted that this had been a major element of Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung s keynote address on the Friday evening of the Dialogue. There was no dearth of experience in trying to do so. On the question of outside powers including France, Canada and the EU joining ADMM, he did recognise an inherent trade-off between size and effectiveness. For this reason, while welcoming the interest of France, Canada and the EU we decided we would focus first on the Plus countries. 64 The Shangri-La Dialogue

64 12 th Asia Security Summit SINGAPORE, 31 may 2 JUne 2013 The Shangri-La Dialogue appendices I. Selected press coverage of the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue II. Selected IISS publications

65 APPENDIX I Selected press coverage of the 2013 Shangri-La Dialogue BBC News 31 May 2013 Shangri-La dialogue: China s rising power in spotlight By Jonathan Marcus, BBC defence correspondent Late May in Singapore. The United States newest warship - the USS Freedom - is tied up alongside at the Changi Naval Base and defence ministers from around the region are heading for the opulent Shangri-La Hotel. The region s only annual security forum - the Shangri-La Dialogue organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) - is back in town. It gets under way after a year that has seen not just growing maritime tensions but also unanswered questions about the future of some of the key relationships in the region, not least the all-encompassing strategic encounter between the United States and a rising China. The Director General and Chief Executive of the IISS, John Chipman, told me that such tensions were becoming all too frequent. Every year seems to produce an awful lot of tension in the Asia-Pacific, he says. Certainly in the last four or five years, we have been confronted by North Korean missile tests or launches and all sorts of controversy over the South China Sea - the East China Sea this year has been particularly busy, he notes. So the Shangri-La Dialogue offers an opportunity, he argues, to pause the button for a moment and have all the defence ministers of the region and those who have a stake in Asia-Pacific security to discuss what the problems are and how they might begin to address them more effectively. We started this dialogue in 2002, he explains, because there was no place where defence ministers of the Asia- Pacific region could meet. The Shangri-La Dialogue, he insists, is always there to stretch the envelope to ensure that as many countries who have a stake in Asian-Pacific security do meet at least once a year. Maritime tensions, territorial disputes in Asia s contested waters and unease at a more robust and assertive China will all figure as part of the debate. So, too, will charges of Chinese hacking raised most recently in the United States and Australia. An expert meeting on cyber-security is one of the few sessions that will be strictly off the record. The Dialogue will see a host of bilateral ministerial meetings in the margins of the conference. Re-balancing The new US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel - who had a key role in backing the establishment of the dialogue over 10 years ago - will hold trilateral meetings with the defence ministers of South Korea and Japan, and separately with Australia and Japan. Secretary Hagel will also be visiting the USS Freedom - a ship which symbolises Washington s pivot or re-balancing towards the Asia-Pacific, after more than a decade of wars focused upon Iraq and Afghanistan. The Freedom is the first of a new class of vessel - controversial because it has had so many teething problems - but nonetheless a sign of where US naval power is heading. It s a ship that can operate for extended periods away from its home port - the Freedom will be in Singapore for some 10 months. It is small and agile, intended to carry out a range of functions, from surface warfare to mine-counter-measures and anti-submarine warfare. Its shallow draft enables it to operate close to shore, hence its name: the Littoral Combat ship. It s a vessel intended to operate alongside the ships of Washington s allies in the region. US spokesmen insist that the re-balancing towards Asia has a diplomatic and economic aspect every bit as important as its military dimension. But it is the military side that has caught Beijing s attention. It is increasingly concerned by the pivot which 66 The Shangri-La Dialogue

66 many Chinese analysts see as a thinly-disguised attempt to contain China s rising power. Mutual suspicions When President Xi Jinping of China heads to California next week for a summit with his US counterpart, he will be looking for a new strategic relationship with Washington. By this, the Chinese mean a willingness on the part of the US to accept China s growing regional role. China will also be represented here at the Shangri-La Dialogue, not by its defence minister, but by the deputy chief of Staff of the Peoples Liberation Army, Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo (a man who, John Chipman of the IISS is quick to point out, has ministerial status in the Chinese system. He also happens to be China s head of military intelligence). China, the IISS director general told me, says that it values the Shangri-La dialogue as independent, fair and open. The IISS, he notes, perhaps a little mischievously, looks forward to the day when the chairman of the Central Military Commission, that is to say, the Chinese president, might deliver the keynote address here. While insisting that it wants more co-operation with Beijing, there is no sign that the White House is willing to give up its position as the dominant military player in the Asia-Pacific. Analysts fear that mutual suspicions between the US and China risk stoking tensions in a region which, at times, already resembles a maritime tinder box. 2013, BBC News Reprinted with permission The Straits Times 31 May 2013 Of speed dating and boxing rings By William Choong IF MERE attendance at a security forum is indicative of its health and durability, then the strong showing at the opening dinner of the Shangri-La Dialogue tonight should be reassuring. Mr Chuck Hagel, the United States new Secretary of Defence is leading an 11-strong government delegation which includes Admiral Samuel Locklear, commander of US Pacific Command. The forum also holds some poignancy for Mr Hagel - as a US senator, he helped to found the dialogue in Similarly, China continues to send strong representation to the annual dialogue. Granted, Beijing is not sending its defence minister (it did so in 2011), but this year s delegation is led by Lieutenant-General Qi Jianguo, the deputy chief of General Staff of the People s Liberation Army (PLA). Lt-Gen Qi has an influential position within the PLA. His predecessor, General Ma Xiaotian, who attended three of the dialogues, has moved up to become a member of the Central Military Commission, the PLA s highest policymaking body. China s participation in the dialogue has also been broadened. In addition to Lt-Gen Qi speaking at a plenary session, there will be three other Chinese speakers in smaller-scale sessions. However, by far the most outstanding feature of the dialogue this year will be the European pivot to Asia - a sign of strong European interest in Asia despite continuing financial and economic travails on the continent. Britain and France are sending their defence ministers (German Defence Minister Thomas de Maiziere had planned to come but pulled out at the last minute), while the European Union (EU) is sending its High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton. They will be flanked by Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, as well as the generals who chair the EU and Nato military committees. The Asia-Pacific region itself is well represented with defence ministers from around a dozen countries including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan. Vietnam s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will deliver the keynote speech. He is expected to stress Hanoi s arrival as a responsible member of the global community, the building of regional architecture, and will possibly make references to the simmering dispute over the South China Sea. All in all, it is easy to understand why the dialogue continues to attract attention at the highest levels from governments around the world. A British diplomat once told me that many officials like the dialogue s speed dating format - they enjoy closed-door bilats with their counterparts from other countries which are done in quick succession. To critics, such speed dating may be tantamount to a talkshop, but the fact is that the format has yielded dividends. In past years, speed dating has led to joint air patrols over the Malacca Strait by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand; concerted policy positions towards North Korea; and, more recently, built momentum for the Asean Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus Eight, a key component of the region s security framework. Indeed, 11 years on from its inception in 2002, the dialogue has led to a burgeoning of the region s alphabet soup of institutions, thus bolstering regional stability. This includes the Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur, the Jakarta International Defence Dialogue and the Seoul Defence Dialogue. Having covered Shangri-La dialogues as a journalist, I know that nothing puts off journalists and think-tank ana- Selected press coverage 67

67 lysts more than hearing only anodyne policy statements from defence ministers at the dialogue. Such statements are important but they could be read off a defence White Paper or ministry website. Trading barbs WHAT they are looking for are robust and interactive exchanges to keep the level of debate high, this leading to policy changes that increase security all round. In other words, they are generally content with the speed-dating format - as long as there are elements of a boxing ring as well. The classic example would be the exchanges between then US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates and Gen Ma in The two traded barbs over US arms sales to Taiwan earlier that year. Mr Gates chided China for suspending military exchanges over the issue, while Gen Ma countered that the arms sales were not normal. The feisty exchange hogged the headlines but it also had a moderating influence. After all, it highlighted the dangers if both sides failed to reconcile their differences; if anything, it underscored the fact that they needed to keep communication channels open. Therein lies another key challenge - and opportunity - facing the Shangri-La Dialogue. To keep robust debates going at the meetings, priority must be put on so-called hard security issues such as maritime disputes, military modernisation and missile defence. No one has a quibble with a discussion of softer security issues such as humanitarian assistance and counter-terrorism. Analysts note, however, that China has developed a penchant for discussing soft issues, if anything, to avoid criticism over its growing assertiveness. Yes, soft security issues represent low-hanging fruit. But long-term benefits will accrue to the region only when defence officials are frank and open about pressing security challenges. And Asean-centred institutions such as ADMM- Plus provide excellent forums for discussing these matters. Hard issues SUCH a tradition looks set to continue at this year s dialogue. The Japanese delegation could find itself having to address concerns about the country s supposed swing to the right under the leadership of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Mr Abe s new government is attempting to restore Japan s power and prestige with support from intensified nationalism - and at times, even a denial of Japan s wartime history. On Sunday morning, all eyes will be on a plenary session discussing new trends in Asia-Pacific security, where Lt-Gen Qi and Philippine Defence Minister Voltaire Gazmin will speak. It is expected that the two countries festering dispute over the South China Sea will be addressed. More importantly, the dialogue s 350 or so delegates will be watching the atmospherics of the exchanges between the US and Chinese delegations. It may well be that the verbal jousting of past dialogues is over, given concerted efforts by Washington and Beijing to keep their relationship on an even keel. Just five days after the dialogue, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be meeting US President Barack Obama in California, to discuss thorny issues such as North Korea, cyber security and the South China Sea. But it behooves the US and China to temper their usual diplomatic niceties with honest - and even critical - appraisals of each other s defence policies. China, for one, has made it clear that it does not buy the rationale for the US oft-vaunted rebalance to the Asia-Pacific, arguing that it smacks of Cold War-style containment. Mr Hagel will have his hands full if Chinese delegates at the dialogue raise the issue. If, together with other defence ministers, the Americans and the Chinese stay honest about their concerns, this will eventually lead to robust debate that would enhance security and create a sturdier regional security architecture. Therein lies the paradox: Only with the facilitation of frank and even discomfiting debate can the utopian notion of Shangri-La in the realm of regional security be possible. 2013, The Straits Times Reprinted with permission IISS Voices 1 June 2013 Lessons from the past By William Choong If the business of politics involves hitting all the right notes, then Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera was in pretty fine form at the Shangri-La Dialogue today. Speaking at the Second Plenary session, Onodera told delegates that a strong Japan would make a creative contribution to regional and global security. To do so, the Japanese Self Defence Forces (JSDF) has increased its budget for the first time in 11 years, while the number of personnel in the JSDF has gone up for the first time in eight years. Addressing widespread views that Japan under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made a swing to revisionist right, Onodera said that such views were total misperceptions an argument that I pretty much endorsed in the latest issue of Survival. He also dismissed comments made by Toru Hashimoto, the nationalist mayor of Osaka, who had said recently that the use of comfort women by Imperial Japanese forces during the Second World War had been necessary for troop morale. More importantly, Onodera invoked the spirit of the 1995 statement by then-premier Tomiichi Murayama, by 68 The Shangri-La Dialogue

68 telling the 350 or so delegates at the Dialogue that Japan had caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries. Onodera, however, was correct only up to a point when he said that perceptions about Japan s purported move to the right are misplaced. Arguably, Japan has apologised countless times for its wartime atrocities. The country has played a hugely positive role in the peace and development of Asia, doling out billions in reparations to countries affected by its wartime aggression. But Onodera s statement start to sound a little hollow when one considers recent actions and statements made by members of Abe s government. In April, for example, 168 lawmakers from the Diet visited the Yasukini shrine, following visits by deputy prime minister Taro Aso and Yoshitaka Shindo, the minister of internal affairs and grandson of an Imperial Japanese Army general. Abe himself offered a masakaki tree branch traditionally used in Shinto religious rituals a move that led to howls of protests in China and Japan. In the same month, Abe was also asked about his position on the 1995 Murayama statement. He answered that the definition of aggression in general has yet to be firmly determined by academic experts or the international community. Taken together, Japan s declaration about national restoration amid deep-seated perceptions that the country has not dealt fully with its dark history does not inspire total confidence across the region. People s Liberation Army Lieutenant Colonel Xue Xiaodong echoed some of these sentiments. He said that he encouraged by Onodera s remarks about a strong Japan and the recognition of Japan s historical debt. He added, however, that he did not fully agree with all the points made by Onodera, saying that actions spoke louder than words. One issue that requires action is the enduring Sino Japanese dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the South China Sea, currently administrated by Japan. In recent months, Japan has seen repeated Chinese maritime and aerial incursions near and over the islands, sparking fears of a full-blown conflict between two of Asia s great powers. Onodera proposed that China and Japan come up with a maritime coordination mechanism at the earliest possible timing to prevent crises over incidents at sea. Such a mechanism would be most helpful to reduce tensions, but the details provided by Onodera were sparse. An even better way of reducing the risk of escalation would be to revert to the so-called 1978 consensus between China and Japan. In October, 2012 the state-run People s Daily noted that Deng Xiaoping had said in 1978 that the Senkaku/Diaoyu issue should be set aside for a while. Said Deng: It is okay to temporarily shelve such an issue if our generation does not have enough wisdom to resolve it. The next generation will have more wisdom, and I am sure they will eventually find a way acceptable to both sides. At the time, Japanese officials did not object to Deng s comments, according to a commentary by the People s Daily, and both China and Japan were clear that the two countries had reached an understanding and consensus on shelving the dispute. Japanese officials do not appear to adhere to the Chinese depiction of the quid pro quo. But for the sake of maintaining regional stability, it behooves both China and Japan to revert to the understanding they arrived at in the 1970s. When Sino Japanese relations were normalised in 1972, Chinese premier Zhou Enlai said that lessons learned from the past can serve as a guide for the future. Therein lies wisdom. To move ahead, sometimes one needs to look back. The Washington Post 1 June 2012 Hagel chides China for cyberspying By Ernesto Londoño SINGAPORE Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel took China to task Saturday for alleged cyberespionage, drawing a sharp response from a Chinese general who questioned whether the United States growing military presence in Asia is anything more than a challenge to Beijing s rise. Delivering the keynote speech at the annual security summit here known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, Hagel said the United States is clear-eyed about the challenges in cyber and echoed past assertions by the Obama administration that multiplying cyberattacks on U.S. government and industry portals appear to be tied to the Chinese government and military. It was the latest public charge by the administration, which has concluded that calling out China publicly could curb what U.S. officials call a brazen and sophisticated quest for American secrets stored online. The Obama administration has repeatedly sought to engage China in a dialogue on the issue. In a visit to China in April, Secretary of State John F. Kerry won agreement from Beijing to set up working group discussions on cyber issues. We are determined to work more vigorously with China and other partners to establish international norms of responsible behavior in cyberspace, Hagel said in his remarks Saturday delivered in a conference hall packed with Asian military officials. China has denied Washington s accusations, most pointedly last week, when it said it did not need to steal U.S. Selected press coverage 69

69 military-hardware blueprints because it was more than capable of producing its own. After Hagel s speech, a Chinese general took to the microphone. In unusually pointed remarks, Maj. Gen. Yao Yunzhu, director of China-America defense relations at the Chinese military s Academy of Military Science, started with a wry remark. Thank you for mentioning China several times, she said to Hagel, drawing laughter and muttering. U.S. officials have long said their growing footprint in the Asia- Pacific region is not meant to offset China s military might, Yao said, but noted that China is not convinced. Hagel said the United States is hoping to build a more constructive relationship with China by fostering closer ties between their militaries. The only way you can do that is you talk to each other, Hagel said. You have to be direct with each other. Hagel s lengthy speech was meant to reassure allies in the region that steep defense cuts and security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa have not derailed an initiative to shift the U.S. military s attention toward Asia as it wraps up a period of messy, unpopular wars. China s ascendance in maritime affairs, space and cyberspace has alarmed many in the region in recent years, said Patrick M. Cronin, an Asia-Pacific expert at the Center for a New American Security. The 2008 global financial crisis and overcommitment of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan served to accelerate the perception of China as the next superpower and the decline of America, he said. The gradual global awakening to China s cyberespionage heightened doubts about America s power, a foundation on which regional security has rested since the end of World War II. America s fiscal crunch will not derail its policy goals, Hagel said. It is true that the Department of Defense will have fewer resources than in the past, he said. It would be unwise and shortsighted to conclude, however, that our commitment to the rebalance cannot be sustained. U.S. military spending will continue to represent roughly 40 percent of worldwide defense expenditures even under the most extreme budget scenarios, he added. By 2020, Hagel said, the United States intends to base 60 percent of its naval assets in the Pacific. The Air Force, meanwhile, has stationed 60 percent of its overseas troops in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States is working to expand its partnerships with Washington s closest allies in the region: Japan, South Korea and Australia, Hagel said. The U.S. defense establishment continues to produce cutting-edge technology from which allies can benefit, he said. Hagel also warned attendees about conducting business as usual with North Korea, a pariah state that counts China as its main ally in the region. The United States will not stand by while North Korea seeks to develop a nuclear-armed missile that can target the United States, he said. 2013, The Washington Post Reprinted with permission Agence France Press 1 June 2012 Asia warned against destabilising arms race SINGAPORE, Singapore Asian countries must guard against destabilizing the region with increased arms spending, defense chiefs warned at an international security conference Saturday. Asian governments, boosted by stronger economic growth and worried by regional tensions, have been beefing up their armed forces and there are fears the build-ups could be dangerous in the long run if not managed well. There are indeed inherent perceptional sensitivities in military build-ups that could create miscalculations, misjudgements, and mistrust, Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro told the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual forum in Singapore. In order to avoid military modernization becoming destabilizing, there is a need for greater strategic transparency. Asia overtook European members of NATO in terms of nominal military spending for the first time last year, according to a report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released in March. In the annual report on the world s militaries, the IISS which organises the Shangri-La Dialogue said China s defence spending in real terms rose 8.3 percent between 2011 and 2012, while in Asia as a whole, spending rose 4.94 percent last year. Globally, China now ranks second behind the United States in total military spending, although the Pentagon s annual budget of $600 billion still dwarfs Beijing s arms expenditure. Philip Hammond, Britain s secretary of state for defense, said rising defence spending in Asia was worrying as it was taking place against the backdrop of growing tensions over territorial disputes and competition for resources. (It) has the potential to escalate and become at best a prolonged source for instability and at worst, a driver for conflict, he said. On May 9, a Philippine coast guard ship fired on a Taiwanese fishing vessel along their sea border, killing a fisherman. Taipei reacted angrily and held naval exercises near the Philippines in a show of force against its bigger but poorly equipped neighbour. China is locked in a territorial dispute with four Southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea, and with 70 The Shangri-La Dialogue

70 Japan over the Senkaku islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyus, in the East China Sea. And on the Korean Peninsula, tensions remain high between US-backed South Korea and the nuclear-armed North. Latest statistics released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showed China s estimated defence spending nearly quadrupled from $37 billion in 2000 to $166 billion in India s defence spending has grown 67 percent since 2000, reaching $46.1 billion in 2012, it said. South Korea s defence investments swelled from $20 to $31.6 billion while Japan maintained its defence budget throughout the period at $60 billion. But Tokyo in January announced that it would increase military spending this year for the first time in over a decade by over $1.15 billion under a ruling party plan. Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera, who also spoke at the Singapore defence conference, justified the country s increased spending. We believe it is essential to build-up a defence posture that will contribute to the enhancement of regional peace and stability, he said. 2013, Agence France Presse Reprinted with permission IISS Voices 2 June 2013 China s rhetoric falls short of realities By William Choong Those who have witnessed Chinese participation at the Shangri-La Dialogue in recent years might have noticed that there is a unique and distinct Chinese rhetoric when it comes to defence diplomacy. Addressing delegates at the Fifth Plenary Session this morning, General Qi Jianguo the deputy chief of general staff of the People s Liberation Army - was all sweetness and light. Like his predecessors at the Dialogue, he said that China would adhere to key principles in its foreign policy open development, win-win situations and cooperative relationships. He even put some meat on the bone. He made a solemn pledge that China would never abandon its policy of nofirst-use of nuclear weapons. And he also dismissed recent commentary in the state-run People s Daily, which had questioned Tokyo s historical claim on the Ryukyu Islands. Delegates should feel reassured that China s position on the issue remains unchanged, he added. General Qi added that China put much currency in the Shangri-La Dialogue, lauding it as the most important dialogue in the Pacific. When asked by a Japanese delegate whether China would seek to get its defence minister to attend the Dialogue next year, General Qi said he was convinced that the minister would attend the summit at some point. The Chinese were out in force this year, furiously banging out notes on their smart devices and coordinating conference strategy, to the point that designated speakers in the Island Ballroom were tasked with directing questions to various defence ministers (and this, according to perceived seniority; a PLA major-general was assigned to tackle US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, while a relatively lowly lieutenant colonel was tasked with quizzing Australia s defence minister, Stephen Smith). General Qi s enthusiasm towards the Dialogue notwithstanding, China s declarations of peaceful intent belie a harder edge. One should look no further than a key statement in General Qi s 30-minute presentation: China s focus on peaceful dialogue and consultation by no means denotes unconditional compromise. Put another way, China s desire for peaceful negotiations will never trump its national interests. Three examples bear this out. Echoing the collective sentiment, Bonnie Glaser, an American delegate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that there was growing scepticism about China s commitment to peace. Chinese paramilitary vessels continue to pressure its neighbours in the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and the South China Sea. Her question had a lot of sting: If China was so committed to international law (and a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea to boot), why is it so opposed to arbitration? There were also reasons to be sceptical towards General Qi s declaration that China has never taken foreign expansion and military conquest as a state policy (a day earlier, a PLA senior colonel had noted that China has never deployed soldiers abroad, except for counter-piracy operations) Technically, the points made are correct. The fact remains, however, that the Chinese have also never shrunk from the use of force, which has been part of its strategic lexicon for years. In a paper on China s strategic culture, analyst Andrew Scobell argued that China s military strategy is essentially one of active defence : While emphasising a defensive strategy, the strategy effectively blurs the distinction between offence and defence. Thus, China s attack on Vietnam in 1979, and its wars against India and the former Soviet Union in 1962 and 1969 respectively were all labelled self-defence counter-attacks or ziwei fanji. The Vietnamese, in particular, have been at the receiving end. Earlier on Sunday, Hanoi had to break up anti-chinese protests in response to the recent ramming of a Vietnamese trawler by Chinese navy vessels. Addressing the Dialogue s Opening Dinner on Friday, Vietnam s Prime Selected press coverage 71

71 Minister Nguyen Tan Dung spoke of the potential damage to regional economies and global trade in the event that unilateral might, groundless claims and power politics provoked a conflict in the South China Sea. In his remarks, General Qi said that the fact that Chinese warships were patrolling the South China Sea and East China Sea were entirely legitimate and uncontroversial. Responding to my own question, he said it would be wise as late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping had suggested in 1978 that the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute between China and Japan be deferred to future generations. The fact is that China s patrolling of maritime territory disputed by other countries increases the risk of unintended escalation significantly. In particular, getting the Japanese Self Defence Forces (JSDF) to scramble F-15s and naval assets to counter Chinese incursions near and over the islands would not convince the Japanese to revert to the 1978 quid pro quo. Put bluntly, China s insistence on such patrols puts paid to all the peace it preaches about so profusely. A frustrated ex-colleague told me that it was about time the Chinese started listening to comments and concerns expressed by delegates, and abandon its laser-sharp focus on getting its message out. General Qi put it aptly when he said that Asian countries should not only hear what the Chinese government says, but more importantly, watch what it does. Touché. At the moment, China s rhetoric is lagging behind the hard realities of Asia-Pacific security. Xinhua 2 June 2013 News Analysis: No need to pit China against US By Chen Jipeng It s obvious that there is no need to pit a rising Chinaagainst the United States -- even as a Pacific power. Well, maybe not so obvious. At least not so to a South Korean participant at theongoing Shangri-La Dialogue who posed the question Do you have more trust in theunited States versus China to keynote speaker Vietnamese Prime Minister NguyenTan Dung on Friday evening. Some of the distinguished scholars are saying that while China should fully expectsuspicion over its peaceful rise and trouble in its neighborhood over the comingdecades, both China and the United States understand that they have commoninterests in peaceful and reliable bilateral relations. I think it is not enough for China and the United States to know this, the messageshould be conveyed to other countries and regions in the Asia Pacific, too, where boththe United States and China have an influence, said Zheng Yongnian, director of theeast Asian Institute, the National University of Singapore. This will be in the interest of not only China and the United States, but other players inthe region as well. Chinese leaders have called for a new type of bilateral relations between the world stwo biggest economies. While China is pursuing a strategy of peaceful rise, it is by no means in the interest ofthe United States, either, to be involved in any conflict in the world of today. It cannot be denied that the two countries have certain doubts over each other sstrategic intentions, with Washington fearing its global status overtaken while Beijingalways wondering about the true purpose of Obama s so-called Asia Pivot and rebalancing. To reduce suspicion and build trust, it is vital to have channels for dialogues, includingthose like the multilateral Shangri - La Dialogue, which gathers defense ministers andsenior military commanders from some 30 countries and regions, mainly those in theasia Pacific. Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and dean of the Lee Kuan YewSchool of Public Policy, said the different countries in the world are now living in many different cabins on the same boat, unlike in the past when they live in different boats. He called for major powers, especially the United States, to push for respect for rules inglobal governance. Zheng also said, it is possible to have new type of relationship between the majorpowers as the interdependency grows in a shrinking global village. China has been developing by integrating into the global system. From its perspective,a peaceful environment is in its interest. China has so far held steadfast to its strategyof peaceful rise despite the seemingly provocation and has spared no effort torepeatedly assure other countries that it is in pursuit of peace and development. From the U.S. perspective, it should also make efforts to explain its pivot to Asia tocountries in the region in a way that does not create unintended consequences, asmaintained by Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia in the Freeman Chair in ChinaStudies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. There is no coincidence that China has been experiencing more problems increasinglywith its neighboring countries as the United States spread the message of its pivot toasia. Indeed some of the countries are having the mentality of seizing theopportunities before China s further growth. It is not that China may view it with suspicions, but that this might give misperceptions toother countries in the region that they should either side with the United States orchina. Singapore has made it clear in the past that it does not want to be forced to choose. 72 The Shangri-La Dialogue

72 But they don t have to, as even both China and the United States know that theinterdependency between them far outweighs the competition, that is, if you do see thebilateral relations from a strategic point of view. 2013, Xinhua Reprinted with permission Financial Times 2 June 2013 China and US stage delicate rebalancing act By Kathrin Hille It has almost become a ritual. Every year in early June, a Chinese general sits down on stage at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore and tells a ballroom packed with defence ministers and military brass from all over the world that China aspires to peace and will not pose a threat to anyone. When he has finished speaking, one member of the audience after another challenges Beijing s sincerity. It was no different on Sunday, when Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of general staff of the People s Liberation Army, addressed the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual high-level defence conference. China will always follow the road of peaceful development, and remain dedicated to promoting development that is peaceful, open, co-operative and win-win, he said, in remarks closely echoing those of his predecessors in years past. And yet, his audience remained unconvinced. The remarks were completely empty, said Arthur Ding, an expert on Chinese security issues at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. William Choong, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the conference s organiser, noted that China s peaceful development had caused deep concern in the Philippines, pushed Japan to seek closer military co-operation with the US and led Vietnam to start co-operating with its former war adversary as well. Following two decades of nearly unbroken double-digit growth in its defence spending, China has firmly arrived as a regional military power, and is seen by most of its neighbours as aspiring to more. The People s Liberation Army Navy has rapidly expanded the scale and scope of its activities, and its vessels are now operating as far from its coast as the US s exclusive economic zone, a 200-nautical-mile zone off the coast of US territory. The main problem for other countries in the region is that this increased muscle has come in step with increasing friction in territorial disputes. Over the past year, China and the Philippines have been in almost nonstop tussles over uninhabited bits of sand and rock in the resource-rich and strategically located South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost in its entirety and which Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei have partial claims to. China s relations with Japan have also been rocked by an increasingly bitter dispute over the Senkaku or (as China calls them) Diaoyu Islands, in the East China Sea. Beijing seized on Tokyo s nationalisation of some of the islands as a provocation and reacted by challenging Japan s administrative control of the islands with frequent patrols by civilian and naval vessels and aircraft. Similarly, Beijing s territorial disputes with India and Vietnam have also been flaring up. In spite of the peace rhetoric, Lt Gen Qi made it clear that Beijing was unlikely to soften its line on this front. Our emphasis on dialogue and consultation for the sake of peace by no means denotes unconditional compromise. Our resolve and commitment to safeguarding core national interests always stands steadfast, he said. In response, China s neighbours have been turning to the US, the incumbent naval and air power in the region and the rest of the world. While Washington is reassuring them through its strategy of rebalancing to Asia after years of preoccupation with conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is also struggling to convey to China the message that it does not intend to block its rise. At the weekend, Chuck Hagel, US secretary of defence, called for India to play a growing role as a regional power and held trilateral meetings with allies Japan and South Korea, as well as Japan and Australia. He also consulted with his Philippine counterpart about a growing rotational presence of US forces in the Philippines, a plan US officials insist does not stand for establishing a US base but most military experts outside the US government understand to mean just that under a different name. Beijing is concerned. The rebalance has been widely interpreted as an attempt to contain China. The US has on several occasions clarified that it is not against China. However, China is not convinced, said Major General Yao Yunzhu, director of the centre for China-America Defence Relations at the Academy of Military Science. How can you assure China [ ]? And how can you balance [ ] the two different objectives to assure allies, and to build a positive relationship with China? That remains an open question. Washington hopes that closer military-to-military dialogue can increase transparency and trust. Admiral Samuel Locklear, commander of US forces in the Pacific, said that dialogue was improving as exchanges are becoming both more frequent and more thorough and frank. Chinese military sources agree with his assessment. Beyond that, US military officials think that only growing confidence will help integrate China into a more stable international military community. The first step may be coming, with Beijing revealing that its navy is now sending Selected press coverage 73

73 ships into waters close to US territory something it has long objected to when practised by the US. It is difficult for us China is always a target at such international conferences, said a Chinese military official. But we can only talk more and play along. 2013, Financial Times Reprinted with permission Wall Street Journal 2 June 2013 Chinese, U.S. Military Chiefs Break the Ice By Adam Entous and Chun Han Wong SINGAPORE Even as tensions run high between U.S. and Chinese militaries over cyberspying and shows of force by both sides in the Pacific, American and Chinese military chiefs at a security conference in Singapore aren t showing it. They set the thorniest issues aside for the moment and embraced a new approach to break down the barriers between them: small talk about their military careers, spouses and grandkids. The charm offensive on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue conference this weekend came ahead of a high-stakes summit later this week between their countries. U.S. officials say they have seen a marked change, at least in tone, in the new Chinese leadership s approach to the U.S. a change that was on display in private talks between U.S. and Chinese defense officials who met on the sidelines of the conference. For veterans of Shangri-La, the Chinese delegation at the conference this year appeared to be more engaged and outgoing than in years past. Their delegates not only spoke fluent English but went out of their way to be cordial and courteous in their public and private comments, while still being strident about China s concerns over stepped-up U.S. military deployments in Asia, which visiting Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told the conference would continue. The change in China s approach, at least so far, has renewed U.S. hope that Beijing will at least be willing to engage in more detailed discussions than they have in the past on thorny issues, including setting standards for cyberspace, tamping down tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea and finding ways to restrain North Korea, the officials said. There is a lot more hope, a senior Obama administration official said. The previous government was more 20th century. The new team seems to be more 21st century. But the U.S. official said it was unclear, based on the limited exchanges that have taken place between top U.S. officials and China s new leadership, whether these style differences will translate into a difference in action. Renewed U.S. hopes stem, at least so far, from the fact that Beijing has indicated to Washington that it is willing to talk about the issues, including sensitive ones such as cyberespionage, the official said. The new tone was on display, officials said, during Mr. Hagel s brief meeting Friday night with Gen. Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of staff for the People s Liberation Army, at the start of the conference. The two weren t scheduled to meet until Saturday afternoon, but Singapore s defense minister introduced them a day earlier. U.S. officials say Mr. Hagel told Gen. Qi that the U.S. hopes for more constructive engagements with Beijing and that Mr. Obama looks forward to hosting President Xi Jinping in California later this week and to discussing areas of mutual concern. Mr. Hagel briefly mentioned U.S. concerns about China s alleged role in cyberspying in his exchange with Gen. Qi but didn t go into detail during their brief exchange, senior defense officials said. U.S. defense officials described Gen. Qi as engaging but didn t provide details about what he told the Pentagon chief. It was their first meeting. Officials described a similarly warm exchange between the head of the U.S. military s Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Locklear, and Gen. Qi on Sunday. During their meeting, Adm. Locklear and Gen. Qi not only discussed the importance of expanding U.S.-Chinese military ties but swapped stories about their personal lives and careers. Adm. Locklear told the Chinese general about joining the Navy at age 17 and about his family, including his wife and his four grandsons, officials said. Gen. Qi reciprocated, sharing details about his military career and family. It was about building a relationship between the two commanders, one U.S. official said. 2013, The Wall Street Journal Reprinted with permission Reuters 2 June 2013 Analysis: China turns on the charm at regional security forum By John O Callaghan and David Alexander Senior Chinese military officials came ready to talk at a major regional security forum over the weekend, surprising delegates with a new sense of openness at a time when Beijing is making strident claims to territory across Asia s seas. No one expected any resolution of disputes over maritime boundaries, accusations of Chinese cyber-espionage, Beijing s suspicions about the U.S. pivot to Asia or 74 The Shangri-La Dialogue

74 other prickly issues at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. But the charm offensive by the People s Liberation Army (PLA) officers, less than a week before Chinese President Xi Jinping meets U.S. PresidentBarack Obama for an informal summit, appeared to be designed to tone down the recent assertiveness by emphasizing cooperation and discussion. There s no question that this year the PLA delegation has come very prepared to engage in dialogue, said John Chipman, director-general of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, which convenes the forum. The intensity of the Chinese engagement and the manner of their engagement is different. The defense minister of the Philippines, Voltaire Gazmin, also noted a shift. It s a total turnaround. They have been talking about peaceful resolutions, no outward acts, Gazmin told Reuters. But we still hope to see that these words are put into action. China claims large swathes of the South China Sea, which could be rich in oil and gas. The Philippines and other Southeast Asia nations have challenged Beijing over those claims. Beijing is also embroiled in a row with Tokyo over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, which are also believed to contain large energy deposits. China, the world s second-largest economy and a rising military power, is aware it needs what it calls a stable and peaceful external environment for its own development. Indeed, Chinese officials at the forum sought to ease concerns about Beijing s intentions. China s development and prosperity is a major opportunity instead of a challenge or even threat to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, the PLA s deputy chief of general staff, told a session on regional security. Qi, China s top official at the forum, said dialogue by no means denotes unconditional compromise and he gave no ground on sovereignty claims, calling the presence of Chinese warships in the East China Sea and the South China Sea totally legitimate and uncontroversial to patrol within our own territory. But he said China is a peace-loving nation and went on to answer more than a dozen questions from delegates. the official. That s very, very good. We want everybody to engage. While there was a fair amount of skepticism about China s position from security analysts during the various sessions, Chinese officials were not shy about taking tough questions or asking their own from the floor. Major General Yao Yunzhu from the PLA s Academy of Military Science asked Hagel after his speech how Washington could reassure Beijing that the U.S. focus on Asia was not an attempt to counter China s rising influence. China is not convinced, she said in fluent English. That s really the whole point behind closer military-to-military relationships, Hagel replied. We don t want miscalculations and misunderstandings and misinterpretations. The higher-ranking Chinese delegation this year and their participation in the sessions shows a more active effort on the part of the Chinese to reach out, Canada s defense minister, Peter MacKay, told Reuters. I see that as positive. The Chinese worked with a very courteous style, with a much less combative style, Chipman said, noting the remarks by a young officer of the PLA congratulating the defense minister ofjapan for his very important and serious speech. Japan, a U.S. ally, is strengthening its economy and military to play a responsible international role, Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said in his speech. Onodera, addressing lingering suspicion about his country s intentions given its role in World War Two, said Japan caused tremendous damage and suffering to its neighbors in the past but wanted to look to the future by promoting cooperation. Those comments were what won public praise from the PLA officer, who also spoke in English. The other Asians are saying the Chinese have decided to play the game, that is to pitch up, make an impression and do so in the right way, said Chipman. How that has an impact on the ground, at sea, in space, in cyber... is a different question. 2013, Reuters Reprinted with permission PLAYING THE GAME Unlike most other countries, China has sent its defense minister to the Shangri-La Dialogue only once - in Despite that absence, a senior U.S. official accompanying Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to the forum saw a big change in the Chinese delegation. Last year China had a very, very small contingent, a relatively junior-ranking contingent. This year they came in force... and have been very active in the panels, said Selected press coverage 75

75 The Asahi Shimbun 2 June 2013 ANALYSIS: Seoul, Beijing unconvinced after Japan denies tilt toward right By Koji Sonoda, Atsushi Okudera, Hirotsugu Mochizuki and Akihiko Kaise SINGAPORE--Although Japan tried to dispel concerns that Tokyo is tilting toward the right under the Abe administration, labeling them a total misperception at a regional security meeting here, South Korea and China remained skeptical. Officials with South Korea and China said whether Japan can regain their trust hinges on Japan s actions in the coming months and years, and not words. Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera made the unusual attempt at the Asia Security Summit on June 1 in his address, touching on what is seen in the international community as Japan s swing to the right. Some say that Japan is tilting toward the right because of these initiatives. Moreover, we sometimes hear criticism that Japan is abandoning its identity as a peaceloving nation and is attempting to challenge the existing international order, he told the annual meeting of defense officials in the Asia-Pacific region, also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue However, these views are a total misperception. Onodera was referring to recent developments such as a hike in defense spending, the first in 11 years, a review of the National Defense Program Guidelines and a discussion of possibly allowing Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defense overseas. These steps, the defense minister said, were meant to bring back a strong Japan, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. A strong Japan will play a responsible role in the area of regional security and will exercise strong leadership as expected by the international community, he said. Doubts about Japan s intentions were refueled after Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto set off an international brouhaha recently, saying the comfort women system was necessary for Japanese troops during World War II. Trying to distance the Abe administration from the controversial mayor, Onodera criticized Hashimoto, also co-leader of the Japan Restoration Party, for causing misunderstanding and mistrust to Japan s neighboring countries by repeatedly making inappropriate remarks about the history of Japan. Comfort women were women who were forced to provide sex for the Japanese military before and during the war. Most came from the Korean Peninsula and some from China. Onodera s speech came after the prime minister s office choreographed it with the defense and foreign ministries to dispel international misunderstanding. The defense minister said the Abe administration has pledged to upholdthe preceding governments stance, in which Japan expressed remorse over causing great suffering of other Asians during the war and offered an apology. Apparently encouraged by audience reaction to his address, Onodera attempted to improve soured ties with China by greeting Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of general staff of the Chinese People s Liberation Army (PLA), at a luncheon afterward. Although bilateral relations are tense now, a strategic partnership of mutual benefit is still important, he told Qi, shaking his hand. Onodera also told his South Korean counterpart, Kim Kwan-jin, that Japan s position remained the same as previous governments despite irresponsible remarks by some politicians. But Onodera s efforts to straighten out the misunderstanding by blasting Hashimoto appeared far from easing the deep-rooted distrust of Japan held by South Korea and China. A Chinese Ministry of National Defense senior official raised his hand to comment after Onodera delivered his address. We want to see Japan become a good neighbor to countries in the surrounding region, the official said. Another official with the Chinese military told reporters on the condition of anonymity that what counts is Japan s actions in the future. Japan, the official said, cannot build friendly relations with China and South Korea due to its failure to have an accurate understanding of history. South Korea, too, perceives that the source of growing concerns about Japan s intention is not some politicians such as Hashimoto, but Abe s stance on aggression and the actions of some of his Cabinet members who visited Yasukuni Shrine in April, which commemorates Class-A war criminals along with the war dead and is viewed as a symbol of Japan s wartime militarism. Abe has avoided admitting that Japan s wartime behavior was aggression, differing from his predecessors, after speaking at an Upper House Budget Committee session in April. However, a ranking U.S. Defense Department official, hailed Onodera s speech for clarifying Abe s intention to maintain his predecessors remorseful stance toward the war. Prior to this, Washington expressed anxiety over mounting tensions between Japan and its Asian neighbors, China and South Korea, over the recent flare-up of the history issue. 76 The Shangri-La Dialogue

76 South Korea agreed to a trilateral meeting of defense chiefs of Japan and the United States on the sidelines of the summit, but not to a bilateral meeting with Onodera, despite an earlier request from Japan. Diplomatic sources in Japan and South Korea said the Singapore trilateral talks came about at the insistence of Washington. A senior official with the U.S. Defense Department stressed the significance of the meeting in light of taking a united front against North Korea, which has continued with ballistic missile and nuclear programs. The official said the participants of the three countries confirmed that their cooperation is vital in dealing with a belligerent Pyongyang, and that each cannot respond to North Korea on its own. An official within the South Korean government, too, acknowledged the importance of the meeting. We needed to send a message to North Korea by demonstrating the solidarity between South Korea, the United States and Japan, the official said. But that is as far as South Korea could go in cooperating with Japan for now, the official said. Everything depends on what Japan will actually do from now on, the official said. As for Japan-China relations, the two nations held defense director-general level talks in late April. But prospects remain bleak for a follow-up, and summits between Japan and China, and also South Korea, and between foreign ministers of the countries, sources said. 2013, The Asahi Shimbun Reprinted with permission China Daily 3 June 2013 Dialogue is the way forward in Asia Beijing showed its openness and engagement to resolve disputes, as well as itsdetermination to protect its territory, at an annual forum for security issues, observerssaid. Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of the general staff of the People s Liberation Army of China,said that to realize prosperity, stability and development of the Asia-Pacific region, onecannot merely rely on the efforts of a single nation, nor on expansion and plundering,and even less on an obsession with the use of force. The only way forward is to take cooperation as the overriding principle, and thatcountries, whether big or small, are all equal and should respect one another, Qi toldthe 12th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on the weekend. China upholds an open spirit of not only taking strides toward the world, but alsowelcoming the world to engage with China, with the purpose of sharing resources andjointly creating a better future, Qi said. The forum, also called the Asia Security Summit, is organized by the London-basedInternational Institute for Strategic Studies. There s no question that this year the PLA delegation has come very prepared toengage in dialogue, said John Chipman, director of the institute and the forum sorganizer. The intensity of the Chinese engagement and the manner of their engagement isdifferent, Chipman told Reuters. Wu Shicun, director of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said theforum is a good platform for other countries to learn more about China. Dialogue: China hopes for peace China s dynamic growth in recent years has triggered regional scepticism over itspeaceful intentions, Qi said. However, he also emphasized that China s hope for sustained peace and stability, aswell as its stress on dialogue and consultation, by no means denotes unconditional compromise. Our resolve and commitment to safeguarding core national interests always standsteadfast, said Qi. China has territorial issues with other participants of the forum, including the Philippinesand Vietnam over the South China Sea, and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. Yang Baoyun, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Peking University, said China willnot remain indifferent when its core interests are threatened. China s words on this year s Shangri-La Dialogue help other players in the regionbetter understand that territorial issues are the core interests of China and it is wherechina s bottom line lies, Yang said. This will help the countries better understand China s strategic attempts, and thereforedeepen the trust among them, although differences on specific issues still remain, hesaid. Zhang Tuosheng, a researcher at the China Foundation for International and StrategicStudies, said countries that have territorial issues with China had milder words duringthe forum, because they know they cannot achieve favorable results without China.However, he added that those countries are also influenced by the United States, whichcontinued to push its Asia-pivot strategy. US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said at the forum that Washington will increase thedeployment of ground forces and put 60 percent of the US air force overseas in theasia-pacific. At the Shangri-La forum last year, Hagel s predecessor Leon Panetta said that the USwould commit 60 percent of its naval forces to the region. Although Hagel denied that Washington s increasing military presence targets China,Yang said it is obvious that the enhanced military power targets China sincewashington doesn t want to lose dominance in the region. Selected press coverage 77

77 Since China and the US have common as well as competing interests in the region, it sessential to build a new non-zero sum cooperative relationship, said Zhang. He called for building an efficient mechanism to control the risks caused by thecompetition. 2013, China Daily Reprinted with permission Philippines Daily Inquirer 3 June 2013 Re-emergence of traditional security threats worries Defense chief By Frances Mangosing MANILA, Philippines Territorial disputes, among other traditional security concerns, remain high as it re-emerges in the regional security agenda, Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said. Gazmin made the statement on Sunday during his speech at the 12th International Institute for Strategic Studies at the Shangri-la Dialogue held in Singapore. The annual security forum was attended by defense ministers, military chiefs and top defense analysts from 27 countries. Traditional security concerns, including territorial disputes, issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula, military modernization and arms race, and proliferation of weapons, remain high in the regional security agenda, Gazmin said, but did not make mention of China, which is locked in a territorial dispute with the Philippines over the hotlycontested West Philippine Sea. The defense chief said that these sensitive issues placed in the backburner in the past have re-emerged to take center stage, and would be solved if states involved would settle these issues through mechanisms provided by international law. This dispels notions that these issues have become irrelevant in the 21st century with the emergence of nontraditional security challenges, he said. Given this, while sensitive issues will not be resolved overnight, it would be timely for states to cooperate in finding means to achieve long-lasting regional stability through mechanisms provided by international law, with the hope of settling these issues with a sense of finality, he added. At the same time, Gazmin also recognized maritime security, disaster response, and cyber security as other security issues. Gazmin recalled that maritime security, based on defense standpoint, used to be about protecting the Philippines territorial waters. However, illegal fishing, piracy, smuggling, and poaching, among others, make it necessary for our armed forces to work closely with maritime law enforcement agencies, he said. Cyber threats, meanwhile, are also becoming a security risk, as citizens become more dependent to technology. While cyber security previously focused only on individual hackers, recent trends show that attacks against government cyber portals could come from organizations. Thus, we need to develop our cyber-related capabilities as we secure our channels of communication, he said. Gazmin also noted the emergence of new security risks. While these issues are not entirely new, they are increasingly becoming a concern for all government agencies, including the defense sector. First is food, water, and energy security. The scarcity of strategic resources, such as food and water, can eventually cause domestic instability as well as international conflict given the competition for limited resources, he said. The aging population is also fast becoming a security concern to the defense department according to Gazmin, even as he noted that the Philippines is one of the youngest population of Asia with a median of 23, but the population may increase to 142 million by 2040 according to the United Nations. On the part of the Department of National Defense, we need to provide pensions for our veterans and retirement benefits of our military personnel while ensuring that there are enough funds for our operations. Furthermore, an aging population would have implications on our ability to recruit new soldiers, he said. 2013, Philippines Daily Inquirer Reprinted with permission The Times 3 June 2013 Cyberthreat means less money to spend on ships and planes By Richard Lloyd Parry and Roland Watson Britain must divert defence spending away from aircraft, ships and soldiers to combat the incredibly serious threat of cyberattack, according to Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary. As the United States openly accused the Chinese Government of launching cyberattacks against it, Mr Hammond said that politicians must take our public with us in justifying expenditure on cybersecurity at a time of heavy cuts to the Armed Forces. It is an incredibly serious threat, he said at a gathering of defence ministers in Singapore. There is a clear consensus that we ought to focus more on cyber and cyberdefence. But that is going to mean prioritising investment away from more traditional forms of military capital spending. 78 The Shangri-La Dialogue

78 His comments come amid a fierce Whitehall battle to protect military spending from the Treasury axe. Sir Gerald Howarth, a former defence minister, yesterday echoed American concerns that military cuts would risk British influence on the world stage. It seems to me in this very dangerous world, in which David Cameron quite rightly wants us to have an influential role, we should not be cutting our Armed Forces any further, he said. Mr Hammond, who will also attend tomorrow s meeting of Nato defence ministers, at which cybersecurity will be high on the agenda, said: In democracies, we have to take our public with us, we have to explain to them why there will be perhaps fewer aircraft, ships and troops than they might expect, because we re investing more heavily in things that are less visible, but just as important, if not more important, to the defence of the national interest. We need to be able to defend our national infrastructure, to defend our industries and to make sure that our conventional defence capabilities are not vulnerable to cyberattack from outside. We have to be alert in that domain as we are in the air, land and maritime domains. This week in New York the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts on cybersecurity will hold its third meeting. The attention being paid to cybersecurity reflects an anxiety to establish international rules that will subject attacks to the same kind of legal restrictions as conventional warfare. Over the weekend Chuck Hagel, the US Defence Secretary, who was attending the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, implicitly accused China of engaging in cyberattacks and said that he was determined to establish responsible behaviour in cyberspace. For 18 months, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office s International Cyber Policy Unit has been part of an international effort to bring regulation to the security of cyberspace, where threats range from simple frauds to sophisticated attacks of the kind Mr Hagel attributes to the People s Liberation Army in China. 2013, Times Reprinted with permission Global Times 4 June 2013 China humbly confident at Shangri-La By Ei Sun Oh Since its inauguration 12 years ago, the annual Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore has become a pre-eminent semiofficial regional forum, bringing together both defense officials and experts from the Asia-Pacific and beyond to exchange fertile ideas and explore new ways in constructing a robust defense architecture and resolving existing and potential conflicts in the region. Recently there have been, for example, the close encounters of Chinese and Japanese ships off the waters of Diaoyu Islands, and the most recent killing of Taiwanese fisherman by Philippine marines. Unpredictable behavior also complicated the pursuit of peace in the Korean Peninsula. These seemingly sporadic incidents testify that various conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region could not and should not be superficially or one-sidedly explained away as, for example, the survival tactics of minor countries against the odds of Sino-US detente, or the presumed worries engendered by the rapid rise of China. Instead, they should be viewed as a vicious cycle of historical gratuity coupled with domestic political struggles, spiced with geopolitical concerns. Against these backgrounds, this year s dialogue held over the past weekend assumed a cautiously pragmatic tone, with China and its emergent role in the Asia-Pacific perhaps inadvertently but almost inevitably taking the center stage in the various discussions. As usual, all eyes were trained on the keynote speech by the newly minted US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. Hagel s style of communication differed sharply from his predecessor, Leon Panetta. Panetta, who was a congressman before his Pentagon career, was decidedly more straightforward in his message and more colorful in his delivery. During last year s Shangri-La Dialogue, for example, Panetta resolutely announced the rebalancing of US interests to the Asia-Pacific theater to a gasping audience. In contrast, Hagel was more circumspect in his speech, though his main intended audience was none other than China. Hagel started by recounting his fond memories of numerous visits to China as a businessman before he became a politician. This was clearly designed to endear himself and by extension the US to his perceived Chinese audience. But Hagel then turned to a laundry list of the various sophisticated measures which anchored the US rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region, ranging from the much talked about deployment of littoral combat ships, to ship-bound solid-state anti-missile laser weaponry, the successful takeoff and landing of unmanned aerial vehicles on aircraft carriers, and so on. It was an impressive list, but also clearly one designed to overwhelm the participants, not least the Chinese, with the seemingly invincibility of US power projection. Nontheless, then Hagel narrated the vast array of close Sino-US cooperation in military and beyond. His stress on clarity, predictability and trust left the audience with the Selected press coverage 79

79 impression that the US and China were almost superpower partners. Yet in another twist, without naming names, Hagel implicitly accused China of altering the regional maritime status quo. He also explicitly alleged that the US had reasons to believe that the Chinese military was behind recent cyber attacks. There are at least two possibilities as to the apparent wavering of Hagel s speech. For one, it could be a manifestation of the current policy drift in the US administration in tackling the faster-thanexpected emergence of China as a formidable counterpart. A more plausible explanation could be that the speech was a replay of the classic US carrot-and-stick tactic in its diplomacy and power projection, for instance, simultaneously cozying up a potential challenger with friendly gestures and brandishing a huge stick before the same. When Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of general staff of the PLA and head of the Chinese delegation to the Shangri-La Dialogue, took the stage the next day, the participants were undoubtedly treated to a breath of fresh air. What they heard was a self-confident yet humblyminded China eager to engage with the region and clearly laying out four principles in its regional and by extension global engagements: peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefits. And these are themes which are decidedly comforting for and welcomed by especially China s neighbors, not least Southeast Asian countries, many of which have lately been torn by perceived worries about China s rise and eagerness to seize the abundant opportunities in the same. As such, the overall impression of this year s Shangri-La Dialogue exudes the emergence and thus the gradual movement from the periphery to the center of a humbly self-assured China. And that is a China which its neighbors are glad to positively and productively engage with. 2013, Global Times Reprinted with permission The Jakarta Post 4 June 2013 Vietnam, RI must collaborate to address regional security challenges: PM Dung By Purnomo Yusgiantoro Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung delivered the opening keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a multilateral forum for defense diplomacy, in Singapore on Friday. Dung called for strategic trust among Asia- Pacific members and announced that Hanoi would be joining international peacekeeping operations for the first time. He gave an exclusive interview to The Jakarta Post s Veeramalla Anjaiah on the issue. The following is an excerpt. Question: How do you see the rapidly changing security environment in the Asia-Pacific region and what should be done to deal with the present security challenges? Answer: The Asia-Pacific region has been experiencing dynamic and strong growth over the past few years, creating a vigorous momentum for world development. It is certain that peace, cooperation and integration are the mainstreams in the region; that fact constitutes a positive opportunity and premise for the whole region in the future. However, there are unequal developments in globalization and regionalization, unbalanced cooperation as well as diversity in each country s strategic calculation; plus we are facing so many major challenges from sovereignty disputes, maritime security, arm race threats, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, ethnic separation, cyber security, transnational crimes to climate change, natural disasters and epidemics. These challenges go beyond any one country or group of countries capability to handle them alone and, in some cases, if they are not properly managed, they can pose a severe threat to regional peace, stability and development. To deal with these challenges, every country in the region must build strategic confidence through concrete actions and sincerity. Only with confidence can we build equal cooperation and strong relationships, respecting one another s legitimate benefits, and international principles of conduct and standards. Primarily, we must endeavor to prevent the trend by some countries to prioritize their own national interests and consider the use of force, which results in unilateral moves and risks international relations. Each country must be a responsible stakeholder to ensure regional peace and security and to positively contribute to multilateral efforts, further consolidating and promoting the role of regional security cooperation mechanisms. How can close strategic partners Vietnam and Indonesia contribute to ASEAN s unity and regional peace and security? Vietnam and Indonesia are both responsible ASEAN members with a long-standing friendly and cooperative relationship that share similarities in culture, history, economics and points of view in dealing with international and regional matters. Vietnam greatly appreciates Indonesia s sense of responsibility and effort in proposing its initiatives and in joining hands to resolve a number of emerging complex issues in the region, contributing to improve prestige as well as unity among ASEAN countries. Vietnam hopes that the two countries will make an even greater effort to strengthen its comprehensive cooperation and strive toward a strategic partnership to reach further consensus in various matters in order to contribute to the resolution of emerging security challenges that threaten 80 The Shangri-La Dialogue

80 regional security, peace and stability; particularly regarding the need to ensure safety and freedom of navigation in the region. Both countries should strengthen coordination in promoting consensus within ASEAN to build and consolidate its confidence for a prosperous ASEAN Community in What do you expect from the Shangri-La Dialogue? I have a strong belief in the success of this dialogue. The current regional geopolitics and security situation requires all nations to actively build strategic confidence, effectively manage conflicts and collaborate responsibly on the basis of mutual respect and benefits, as well as respect for international law. Vietnam hopes that through Shangri-La Dialogue, defense and security officials from across the world will develop a shared viewpoint and responsible consensus on the key issues affecting this region and the world. This dialogue is also an opportunity for Vietnam to reaffirm its role and responsibility in regional and global issues and in so doing, boost friendship and cooperation with all nations. 2013, The Jakarta Post Reprinted with permission The Straits Times 4 June 2013 A clubby approach to regional security Some might harbour high hopes of a progressive triumph of substance following the style displayed by security chiefs at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue held here. A robust regional security architecture is the ultimate goal but one should have no illusion about the speed with which it can be built. Much work and uncertainties lie ahead. Still, laying on the charm while pushing forward beats trading barbs any day. This was evident in the diplomatic approach of US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel and in the poise of Chinese delegates on the sidelines of the conference. (Indeed, the growing ease of their officials with the English language, laced with humour at times, did not go unnoticed either at the World Economic Forum at Davos this year.) But as China s Major-General Yao Yunzhu demonstrated in her grilling of bigwigs, significant policy shifts in Beijing will not come easily. Neither, of course, is the US about to go soft on its rebalance towards Asia strategy and its accusations of cyber spying. Progress, therefore, will depend on measured strides made at Shangri-La, the Asia-Pacific Roundtable, the International Defence Dialogue and similar forums. These will in turn hinge on the transparency of all players. Building defence capacity: What is the intention? Japan s plan to boost Asean states maritime defences: What is the gameplan? Smaller nations will continue to feel edgy about China s might and China will not abandon its suspicions of a containment strategy unless all lay their cards on the table. Forging agreement on codes of conduct is a constructive way of securing the peace until more durable solutions are achieved. The no first use of force pact, first proposed at the Asean Defence Ministers Meeting last month and advocated at the Shangri-La Dialogue, is well worthy of support, as Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen underscored. With so many conflicting claims over parts of the South China Sea, a deficit of trust, as some refer to it, is building up in the region. As the recent Taiwan-Philippines incident shows, it does not take much for tensions to be escalated. Similarly, there is merit in working out rules to prevent flare-ups in cyberspace. A code of conduct has a better chance of evolving if there is more sharing of cyber security experience and joint action to tackle cyber threats. Even as more collaboration is promoted in regional security networks, rising nationalism will lead to belligerent acts played out publicly when incidents arise. None of these should influence the tone and style of the security forums. A mature and collegial approach that is consistently maintained by participants may well lead to substantive policies of a similar character evolving in the region for the common good. 2013, The Straits Times Reprinted with permission VietnamNet Bridge 4 June 2013 Three messages of the Vietnamese Prime Minister By Thach Ha More than 400 politicians, diplomats, militarians and scholars were present at the Shangri-La Security Dialogue But the audience were the governments and the people in the region, even from outside the region such as the EU the entity that wants to participate in the dialogue from next time. Singapore is still seen as a great talented organizer of big events and once again they were successful because the regional security topic is the biggest concern at present. The speech of more than 3,600 words by the Vietnamese Prime Minister focused on three key messages from the perspective of history and time. Win with trade, lose with conflict When classical economist David Richardo mentioned the comparative advantage between countries as a condition to promote trade, perhaps he also wanted peace for nations. Because, once they focus on trade, countries will have to reduce conflicts. Selected press coverage 81

81 In fact, since 1945 the human race has not had to witness the third world war, and one of the important reasons is that all countries are aware of the importance of building prosperity. Prosperity and happiness, peace and friendliness are the values that can prevent fears and the motivation to go to war. In the theory of international relations, the conditions for cooperation among nations is a win-win situation. Although the ideal ratio is 50/50 or 70/30 but it always happens is that both sides will benefit. For example, joining the WTO, countries can suffer loss in this market but in other markets they will benefit. Vietnam suffers trade deficit with China but it enjoys trade surplus with the United States. In bilateral relations, importing a lot of goods may result in loss of financial balance but it meets the needs of businesses and consumers in the country. In short, trade will make good commonwealth compared to the absence of trade. Richardo was right and today even the opposing opinion or group interest cannot stop the trend of liberalization of global trade. For example, protection groups cannot stop the free trade agreements that are booming in Asia-Pacific region. Besides RCEP, which is initiated by ASEAN, are TPP and a series of FTAs with deep commitment to freedom. But the beautiful painting of trade is being threatened. Trade needs transport routes. Assuming a conflict occurs in the East Sea, two-thirds of goods movement in the region will be interrupted. A gunshot will not only threaten to a ship but also cooperation processes in the region. Because if only a gunshot resounds, the memories will come back and the memories of Asia-Pacific is inherently with hidden suspicion, loss and even hatred. A clash, no matter how small it is will threaten the achievements that the countries in the region had to struggle in a very long time to have. Peace in the region which have fragile elements. In war, no side wins. In addition to mobilizing resources for the war machine that should have been reserved for schools, hospitals, amusement parks, nations must accept the sacrifice of their children. In the wake of the global conscience, plus the tremendous impact of the media, the price to pay for a gunshot is not small. Nations should always be aware of the danger of threatening behavior, coercion, aggression and more dangerously, it is the use of violence in international relationships -- that is the first message of the Vietnamese Prime Minister in Shangri-La. Faith - prerequisite of peace The second message and also the subject of the speech of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, is the strategic trust, even though countries in the region have tried to build trust. For example, in the three processes of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the first process is to build trust. Two other processes are preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution. The Shangri-La Dialogue is also a good tool to build trust. In addition, the existing regional cooperation mechanisms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Defense Ministers Meetings Plus (ADMM+) as well as the Shangri-La Dialogue offer the opportunities to foster multilateral security cooperation and find solutions to the arising challenges and the measures to build trust. But it is not enough. The problem is not only the quantity but also the quality. Trust must be deep enough, must be made at a strategic level. It must be seen as an asset, a general obligation of all countries in the region. But reality is not what you expect, otherwise there would have not had increase in defense spending of other countries in the region in 2012, which far exceeded the total national income of many countries in the region; there would have not had conflict and collision in the East Sea and East China Sea; there would have not had tension on the Korean peninsula; and the countries that share the Mekong River would have had more cooperative behaviors on the Mekong mainstream. That fact will worsen if the region does not really focus on building trust. Trust is the only way to help the countries overcome the security dilemma in which country A s improvement of its national capacity interpreted by country B as an action to prepare aggression; in turn, when country B builds its national power in order to improve response capabilities, country A will have the same interpretation. In relations between countries in the feudal period, sometimes building positive attitudes generally was only done through things as security. Nowadays, it seems that the confidence-building is more difficult because the society, population and everything are in larger-scale and more complex. The world is unpredictable and there is no room for miscalculation. Those who follow the realism in international relations say that competition between nations is inevitable. But they do not believe that war is inevitable. Because alternating between conflicts of benefits and violence is the conflict management capacity of human beings. In this context, the East Sea became a big laboratory of the world for the trust between nations. Trust has helped nations sign millions of agreements with each other. The common protocol of the world today is to avoid a major war. But what is happening in the region shows that for good governance of disputes, all must begin from trust. The primary responsibility belongs to big powers The speech by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung also pointed the third message: major countries play a particularly important role in this process, in maintaining peace and stability of the world and the region. 82 The Shangri-La Dialogue

82 After all, international relations are dominated by the relationship between the major powers. It is practical standpoint. So when the big countries cannot sit together, the remaining countries have reason to worry. On the other hand, the small and medium countries also do not want compromise among the major countries to sacrifice their interests. From their perspective, the small countries cannot evade responsibility and show goodwill. The messages that Vietnam desires to establish strategic partnership with all countries of the Security Council of the United Nations (including the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France) is a practical standpoint. Perhaps having a positive relationship with major countries is desired by any country. And the world has awaited the moment Vietnam claims to participate in the UN peacekeeping force. Vietnam s defense policy is that of peace and self-defense. Vietnam will not be a military ally to any country and will not allow any country to set up military bases on Vietnamese territory. Vietnam will not ally itself with any country to counter another. In the past years, sustained high economic growth has enabled Vietnam to increase its national defense budget at a reasonable level but lower than that of economic growth. Vietnam s army modernization is only for self-defense and the safeguard of our legitimate interests. It does not, in any way target any other country. Peacekeeping is a shared responsibility of large and small countries, in which big countries must have greater responsibility. If large countries do not prove to be so, they will lose confidence in themselves and thereby also take away a part of the world s trust. 2013, VietnamNet Bridge Reprinted with permission Le Monde 5 June 2013 Mme Yao Yunzhu, générale et percutante By Sylvie Kauffman Mme Yao Yunzhu a 59 ans, qu elle ne fait pas vraiment, des yeux pétillants derrière ses lunettes cerclées d or, des cheveux courts bouclés et un sourire chaleureux. Elle parle un anglais parfait. Le soir, si elle participe à un dîner professionnel, elle choisit de préférence une tenue que les Chinoises aiment beaucoup : une petite robe noire rehaussée d un boléro à paillettes noires. Le jour, Mme Yao a une allure un peu différente : elle s habille en uniforme. Son uniforme, veste et pantalon, c est la tenue vert bouteille de l Armée de libération populaire, avec des étoiles dorées sur les épaulettes et plein de décorations sur la poitrine. Le jour, Mme Yao devient la générale (major general) Yao. Elle est diplômée de langues étrangères et a un doctorat en science militaire. C est elle que l étatmajor chinois a choisie pour mener le groupe d officiers chargés de croiser le fer avec les orateurs de l édition 2013 du Shangri-La Dialogue. Cette conférence annuelle sur la sécurité en Asie- Pacifique, organisée à Singapour par l International Institute for Strategic Studies, est devenue, en douze ans, le rendezvous obligé des ministres de la défense et des experts de la question. La participation de la Chine, le niveau et le nombre de ses représentants font, chaque année, l objet d examens minutieux et d analyses définitives de la part des autres participants. Cette année, Pékin avait dépêché à la tête de la délégation le chef adjoint de l état-major, le général Qi Jianguo, un surclassement par rapport à Mais c est la chorégraphie des officiers menés en douceur par la générale Yao qui a fait sensation. De mémoire de sinologue, on n avait pas encore assisté à pareil spectacle. La stratégie consiste à réagir systématiquement, lors de la session des questions et réponses, à chaque discours d orateur important. A l américaine, en anglais, courtoisement, avec des phrases bien tournées, brèves, précises. Droit au but, mais zen : on sent les heures de media training derrière. La riposte est graduée - le grade de l officier chinois est fonction de l importance de l orateur qu il faut contredire. C est donc naturellement la générale Yao qui a ouvert le feu, vendredi soir, après le discours d ouverture du premier ministre vietnamien, Nguyen Tan Dung, dont les propos ne faisaient aucun mystère de sa méfiance à l égard du comportement de Pékin en mer de Chine du Sud. Dans certains endroits de la région, ont émergé des préférences pour la puissance unilatérale, des revendications sans fondement, des actions contraires au droit international qui participent du jeu de puissance, a osé le Vietnamien. A peine avait-il terminé que Mme Yao levait la main pour avoir la parole : Pouvez-vous citer des exemples concrets de violation du droit international? Prudemment, M. Dung s est réfugié dans la langue de bois. Elégamment, elle a fait passer le message que l amiral Li Ji, de l Armée de libération populaire, nous délivrera plus directement lorsque nous lui demanderons son avis sur le discours du Vietnamien : La partie sur la Chine, dit-il, ça ne m a pas plu du tout. Les limites de l offensive de charme Samedi 1er juin, c est le chef du Pentagone, Chuck Hagel, qui s exprimait à la tribune. Un discours pas franchement belliqueux, mais appelant un chat un chat, et une attaque cybernétique une attaque cybernétique... chinoise. A nouveau, la générale Yao est montée au front. Merci d avoir cité la Chine si souvent! (Rires dans l assistance.) Puis elle est passée aux choses sérieuses. Vous dites que votre stra- Selected press coverage 83

83 tégie de rééquilibrage vers l Asie-Pacifique n a pas pour but de contenir la Chine, mais la Chine n est pas convaincue. Pourquoi dans ce cas déployer tant de forces dans la région? Plus rompu à la contradiction que le premier ministre vietnamien, Chuck Hagel a fait bonne figure, mais a dû se contenter d une réponse diplomatique. Dans la hiérarchie de Pékin, les ministres européens, eux, n ont droit qu à l intervention de colonels, voire de lieutenants-colonels. Plus jeunes, hommes ou femmes, lisant parfois sur une tablette leur question ou leur commentaire, toujours impeccablement formulé. Puis vient le tour du chef de la délégation, le général Qi, de prendre la parole, dimanche. La tension autour de la Chine monte depuis trois jours à la conférence. Les pays d Asie du Sud-Est et les Japonais sont inquiets des prétentions territoriales et des mouvements de Pékin en mer de Chine méridionale et orientale et ne le cachent pas. Là encore, le Chinois va surprendre tout le monde. Il prononce un discours d un angélisme attendrissant, tout entier consacré à la stratégie de développement pacifique de Pékin, au respect mutuel, au dialogue et au développement gagnant-gagnant, au rêve chinois, qui ne doit pas être un rêve que pour les Chinois mais pour toute l Asie-Pacifique. C est tout juste si au détour d une phrase il glisse que le dialogue et la consultation ne veulent pas dire compromis sans conditions. Une volée de questions franches et directes contraint le général Qi à tomber le masque, tout en se flattant de susciter plus de questions que Chuck Hagel, et à déclarer que les patrouilles des navires chinois en mer de Chine sont totalement légitimes et non discutables car c est - leur - territoire. On ferme le ban. L offensive de charme à ses limites. Tout comme le franc-parler de Mme Yao : Pour répondre à vos questions, je dois avoir une autorisation, répond-elle, désolée. Et je n ai pas l autorisation. Un arbre ne fait pas une forêt, pas plus qu un bourgeon ne fait le printemps, dit un proverbe chinois. C est le général Qi qui l a cité. Là aussi, le printemps se fait attendre. 2013, Le Monde Reprinted with permission Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 6 June 2006 Im Hinterhof; Chinas Aufstieg beunruhigt die Nachbarn - die hoffen auf Amerikas Engagement in der Region By Till Fähnders In Ostasien lässt sich beobachten, wie sich der Aufstieg Chinas auf die Sicherheitsarchitektur auswirkt und die strategischen Überlegungen der Amerikaner bestimmt. Die Region hat zwar auch dank der chinesischen Wirtschaftserfolge eine Prosperität erlebt wie seit Jahrhunderten nicht, die Armut so erfolgreich bekämpft wie nie zuvor und so wenig bewaffnete Konflikte gesehen wie selten. Dennoch scheinen politische Differenzen, Instabilität und Misstrauen zwischen den Staaten zu wachsen. Die Militärausgaben nehmen zu. Es gibt Berechnungen, wonach Asien mittlerweile mehr für Rüstung ausgibt als die europäischen Nato-Länder. Gefährlich wird diese Aufrüstung durch die verschiedenen offenen Territorialfragen. So streitet sich China mit Japan über Inseln im Ostchinesischen Meer, die Diaoyu und Senkaku genannt werden, mit Vietnam und Taiwan über die Paracels und mit Vietnam, den Philippinen, Malaysia, Brunei und Taiwan über die Spratlys im Südchinesischen Meer. Hinzu kommt, dass es in Chinas Hinterhof ein allgemeines Unbehagen über dessen Aufstieg gibt. Die Amerikaner haben die Lage erkannt und ihre Strategie dementsprechend ausgerichtet. Präsident Obamas Umfeld spricht von einem pivot oder rebalancing, von einer Hinwendung in den asiatisch-pazifischen Raum, der von chinesischer Seite wiederum als Versuch der Eindämmung verstanden wird. Die beiden Mächte umkreisen sich mittlerweile in Nordund Südostasien so wie nirgendwo sonst. Ihr Verhältnis dominierte deshalb und auch wegen des bevorstehenden Gipfeltreffens in Washington zwei regionale sicherheitspolitische Veranstaltungen in Südostasien, den hochkarätigen Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapur sowie den etwas weniger prestigeträchtigen Asia-Pacific Roundtable, der jährlich mit Unterstützung der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in der malaysischen Hauptstadt Kuala Lumpur abgehalten wird. In Kuala Lumpur warnte der malaysische Ministerpräsident Najib Razak in seiner Eröffnungsrede vor einem möglichen Rüstungswettlauf in Asien. Bei der Veranstaltung in Singapur bemühte sich der amerikanische Verteidigungsminister Chuck Hagel dagegen, die amerikanische Asien-Strategie noch einmal aus der Sicht des Pentagons darzustellen. Vor einem Jahr hatte sein Vorgänger Panetta an diesem Ort die Ankündigung gemacht, dass bis zum Jahr 2020 sechzig Prozent der amerikanischen Marinestreitkräfte in der Region Asien-Pazifik stationiert werden. Hagel fügte nun hinzu, dass auch die Air Force ihre Auslandskräfte zu dem gleichen Prozentsatz zukünftig in dieser Region halten werde. Er zählte zudem eine Vielzahl von Ländern der Region auf, mit denen Amerika seine Militärkooperation ausgebaut habe: Japan, Südkorea, Australien, die Philippinen, Thailand, Singapur, Neuseeland, Vietnam, Malaysia und Indonesien. Auch mit dem Militär im sich öffnenden Burma habe sein Ministerium erste Kontakte aufgenommen. Der Minister richtete auch eine Botschaft an die Volksrepublik China, mit der Amerika eine positive und 84 The Shangri-La Dialogue

84 konstruktive Beziehung suche. Aus seiner Rede wurde aber deutlich, was Washington als Stolpersteine in dem Verhältnis ansieht: den Mangel an Vertrauen und das Risiko von Fehlkalkulationen zwischen den Armeen. Es ist wichtig für die Vereinigten Staaten und China, ihre jeweils derzeitigen und zukünftigen strategischen Absichten klar und berechenbar zu machen, sagte Hagel. Von Vertrauen war in Singapur mehrfach die Rede, insbesondere in der Eröffnungsansprache, die in diesem Jahr der vietnamesische Ministerpräsident Nguyen Tan Dung hielt. Die Vereinigten Staaten und China hätten eine besondere Verantwortung für die Zukunft der Region. Strategisches Vertrauen sei notwendig und sollte durch konstruktives Verhalten gewonnen werden, sagte Nguyen Tan Dung, dessen Land sich derzeit wieder mit China wegen eines Zwischenfalls an den Paracels in den Haaren liegt. Das Misstrauen vieler ostasiatischer Nachbarländer gegenüber China liegt unter anderem an dem zunehmend scharfen Auftreten der chinesischen Marine und zivilen Booten in den umstrittenen Meeresgebieten. Da half es auch nicht, dass der stellvertretende Generalstabschef Qi Jianguo als höchster chinesischer Vertreter in Singapur die «friedliche Entwicklung» Chinas hervorhob. Die formelhaften Beteuerungen verstärkten vielmehr den Eindruck, dass sich die politische Führung Chinas rhetorisch eine Maske aufsetzt. So machte der Chinese in Singapur auch keinen Hehl daraus, dass Peking in Bezug auf seine nationalen Kerninteressen keine Kompromisse kennt. Dazu gehören erklärtermaßen Fragen der Souveränität und des Territoriums und damit zunehmend auch die Dispute im Pazifik. Es wäre allerdings zu einfach, nur die Chinesen in der Pflicht zu sehen. Denn Peking misstraut seinerseits den Amerikanern, die ihre Streitkräfte in der Region stärken und Bündnisse schließen, rhetorisch aber stets leugnen, dass die Volksrepublik der eigentliche Grund für diese Politik der Hinwendung nach Ostasien ist. Nur am Rand kam bei der Sicherheitskonferenz in Singapur auch die Frage auf, wie sich denn das alte Europa in dem neuen Machtgefüge positionieren sollte. In Singapur waren die Europäer in diesem Jahr besser vertreten als früher. Neben den Verteidigungsministern Frankreichs und Großbritanniens sprach auch zum ersten Mal die Außenkommissarin der Europäischen Union, Catherine Ashton. Der deutsche Verteidigungsminister Thomas de Maizière hatte seine Teilnahme dagegen abgesagt. Frau Ashton pries die EU als Partner Asiens an, dem es nicht um eine Machtprojektion in der Region gehe, sondern der den Ländern dort bei der Selbststärkung helfen wolle. Jean-Yves Le Drian aus Frankreich ging etwas weiter. Er stellte klar, dass sich sein Land, das nach wie vor über Territorien in der Region verfügt, auch als pazifische Macht versteht. Aus der Anwesenheit der Europäer könnte wachsendes Interesse der EU an den sicherheitspolitischen Vorgängen in Ostasien sprechen. Das wäre wünschenswert, damit die Zukunft Asiens nicht allein von China und Amerika beeinflusst wird. 2013, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Reprinted with permission South China Morning Post 6 June 2013 China strikes right tone ahead of talks between Xi and Obama China s delegation to Asia s premier annual security forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue conference, has traditionally been low-key, there more to observe than participate. This year, though, the People s Liberation Army officers who attended were engaged and outgoing, asking questions in flawless English, stating positions and even being personable. Observers have dubbed the changed tone a charm offensive, a concerted effort to project an image compatible with the nation s international standing. But it has to be about more than perceptions; if misunderstandings, miscalculations and misinterpretations are to be avoided, there can be no other way to interact with other nations. The Chinese style has in the past been viewed by governments irked by the nation s growing might as combative. Territorial disputes, a strengthening naval presence and perceived prickliness in dealing with issues like cyberspying, trade and the value of the yuan has led to concern about intentions. President Xi Jinping promised a new era of understanding when he took office in March, but deepening rifts with Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam over contested islands have appeared to say otherwise. An outgoing, courteous and cordial approach by China at the Singapore conference was therefore welcome. Its delegation, led by PLA deputy chief of staff General Qi Jiangjuo, made a point of emphasising co-operation. That was on show during Qi s talks with US defence secretary Chuck Hagel, and although there was no progress on easing tensions, the US pivot to Asia top among them, their exchange was warm. A speech by Japan s defence minister, Itsunori Onodera, was praised by a junior PLA officer, while thoughtful observations and questions were raised at conference sessions. No better tone could have been set ahead of the two days of informal talks between Xi and his US counterpart Barack Obama that begin tomorrow in California. It is what the world expects and needs of a leading global player. 2013, South China Morning Post Reprinted with permission Selected press coverage 85

85 APPENDIX II Selected IISS publications The Adelphi series is the Institute s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Books published since 2007 include: Hokayem, Emile, Syria s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. Adelphi 438. Routledge for the IISS, Le Mière, Christian and Raine, Sarah, Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes. Adelphi Routledge for the IISS, Dodge, Toby, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism. Adelphi Routledge for the IISS, Till, Geoffrey, Asia s Naval Expansion: An arms race in the making?. Adelphi Routledge for the IISS, D. Pollack, Jonathan, No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security. Adelphi Routledge for the IISS, Holslag, Jonathan, Trapped Giant: China s Military Rise. Adelphi 416. Routledge for the IISS, Taylor, Brendan, Sanctions as Grand Strategy. Adelphi 411. Routledge for the IISS, Cortright, David and Väyrynen, Raimo, Towards Nuclear Zero. Adelphi 410. Routledge for the IISS, Bisley, Nick, Building Asia s Security. Adelphi 408. Routledge for the IISS, Raine, Sarah, China s African Challenges. Adelphi Routledge for the IISS, Hughes, Christopher W., Japan s Remilitarisation. Adelphi 403. Routledge for the IISS, Perkovich, George and Acton, James M., Abolishing Nuclear Weapons. Adelphi 396. Routledge for the IISS, Cronin, Audrey Kurth, Ending Terrorism: Lessons for defeating al-qaeda. Adelphi 394. Routledge for the IISS, Akkoyunlu, Karabekir, Military Reform and Democratisation: Turkish and Indonesian experiences at the turn of the millennium. Adelphi 392. Routledge for the IISS, Murphy, Martin N., Contemporary Piracy and Maritime Terrorism: The threat to international security. Adelphi 388. Routledge for the IISS, Goh, Evelyn, Developing the Mekong: Regionalism and regional security in China Southeast Asian relations. Adelphi 387. Routledge for the IISS, The Shangri-La Dialogue