Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 Round 1

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1 Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 Round 1 About the Survey A Pre-election Tracker Survey (the first round) was conducted in Gujarat by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from August 9 through August 16, 2017 among 4090 voters in 200 locations (polling stations) spread across 50 assembly constituencies (the State has a total of 182 assembly constituencies). The sampling design adopted was Multistage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, four polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey method and interviewing techniques at a day-long training workshop held in Ahmedabad and Anand. The field investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Gujarati asking them a set of standardized questions. The duration of an interview was about 25 minutes. At some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or substitutions. The achieved raw sample is quite representative of Gujarat s population profile. It has been weighted by gender, locality, religion, and caste group based on Census The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Profile of Achieved Sample in Gujarat Survey Sample (raw) Census 2011 Scheduled Caste Scheduled Tribe Muslim Women Urban The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by Mahashweta Jani (Researcher, Ahmedabad) and Dr. Bhanu Parmar (Associate Professor, Nalini-Arvind & T.V.Patel Arts College, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Anand district). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti. Survey details in a nutshell Conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, for ABP News Dates of fieldwork Aug 9-16, of Assembly Constituencies covered 50. of Polling Stations (Locations) covered 200. of interviews of voters conducted (Sample size) 4090 Overall Margin of Error +/- 2.2 Sampling method Multi-stage random sampling Fieldwork method Standardized face-to-face interview in Gujarati

2 August 31, 2017 BJP way, way ahead of the Congress in Gujarat at the current moment Lokniti team It s going to take no less than a gargantuan effort on the part of the Congress party to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Gujarat Assembly elections due to take place at the end of the year. The first round of the Tracker poll (there will be more rounds in the months ahead) conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS for ABP News, finds the ruling BJP, which has been in power in Gujarat for the last two decades, to be way, way ahead of the Congress at the current moment. As things stand right now, the upcoming election of Gujarat appears like a no-contest with the BJP leading its arch-rival by over thirty percentage points in terms of people s voting intention. Close to three in every five (59%) randomly sampled voters said that they would vote for the BJP if state elections were to take place now. Only about one in three (29%) were found to be rooting for the Congress. This means that the BJP has thus far managed to retain the level of support it received in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the Congress has slid down further. A note of caution is in order here - pre-election surveys done this early when campaigning hasn t begun and candidates haven t been named usually suffer from some amount of over-reporting by voters in favour of the ruling party, so this wide gap between the BJP and Congress could lessen in the weeks and months ahead. However with a gap so massive, bridging it entirely in just four months is going to be a very tall order for the Congress. The survey fielded from August 9 to August 16 among a representative sample of 4090 voters spread across Gujarat found the BJP to be leading the Congress in each and every region of the State and quite handsomely at that. t only does the ruling party continue to dominate the regions where it did well in 2012 assembly elections - Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat, it also appears to be widening its lead over its opponent in Central and rth Gujarat the two areas where the Congress had put up a strong fight five years ago. Moreover, contrary to popular analysis, the recent agitation by some Patel leaders demanding OBC status does not seem to have greatly negatively impacted the BJP s popularity among its staunchest voters, the Patels, with nearly three in every four voters belonging to the dominant community still supporting the party. This is despite the fact that the survey found that six of every ten Patels like Hardik Patel (who has vowed to finish the BJP in Gujarat ) and that close to two-thirds of them support the OBC status demand (which has not been met yet). Other than holding on to its core voters, the BJP seems to have also made some serious inroads among the old voting bloc of the Congress - Kshatriyas, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims - politically known as KHAM. While the Kshatriya drift away from the Congress has been going on since the mid-1990s, what is stunning are the BJP s gains among Dalits, Tribals and Muslims. The Una Dalit flogging incident does not seem to have resulted in a consolidation of Dalits behind the Congress. On the contrary, the party s traditionally high lead over the BJP among Dalits has narrowed considerably. The survey found one in every four Dalits to be unaware of the incident and the BJP leads the Congress among this segment. Even among the three-fourths Dalits who know about the incident, the Congress s lead over the BJP is not too high currently. Among Muslims too, the Congress s stock seems to have fallen with one in every four of them indicating support for the BJP at present. The level of support for the BJP among Muslim men and women is nearly the same. What is most remarkable however is the support that the BJP seems to be getting among Tribals. For the first time in many years, it leads the Congress among this critical segment of voters that constitute about 15 percent of the state s electorate. This tribal shift to the BJP is particularly significant as even during the wave election of 2014, a majority of them had stood by the Congress. Significantly, the survey also found tribal households to have benefitted much more from some of the Central government schemes like Ujjwala (free LPG cylinders to Poor families) than households of other communities.

3 The survey found a sentiment of pro-incumbency to be prevailing in Gujarat as of now. About 70 percent of the voters said they were satisfied with the performance of the State BJP government during the last five years and 63 percent expressed a strong or moderate desire to see the BJP government back in office for yet another term. Nearly three in every five (57%) were also satisfied with the aid work done by the Gujarat government during and after the recent floods that affected some parts of the State. Satisfaction was also fairly high among the few respondents who said that their area had been badly affected by floods. Interestingly, while the survey found farmers, traders, women and the youth to be quite satisfied with the Gujarat government s performance in resolving their concerns, their positive assessment was found to be tilting more towards the moderate zone, that is, all these categories of voters were more likely to say that the Gujarat government had somewhat succeeded in resolving their issues than fully succeeded. In fact, the proportion of those saying the government had fully failed in addressing their concerns was greater than the proportion who said it had fully succeeded. Further, if there is one area in which the Gujarat government doesn t do too well, it is that of caste and community welfare. Voters across all castes and communities, be it Patels, Kshatriyas or Dalits, were more likely to say that the government had failed to address the problems of their caste-community than it had succeeded. What seems to be working in the BJP s favour the most is its decision to replace Anandiben Patel with Vijay Rupani as the chief minister a year ago. When asked whose performance as chief minister had been better among the two, twice as many chose Rupani s term as they did Patel s term (34% to 17%). This perhaps means that any anti-incumbency sentiment that might have existed against Patel s government may now have weakened with Rupani as the State s leader. The survey also tried to measure the likeability of the two leaders and found Rupani to be slightly ahead of his predecessor in this respect as well. While 73 percent of the voters said they like Rupani, 66 percent said they like Patel. Importantly, the survey found Anandiben Patel s supporters (those who have been traditional BJP voters and prefer her tenure to Rupani s) to be nearly as enthusiastic about voting for the BJP as Rupani s supporters. In fact, at the moment there seems to be no major challenger to Vijay Rupani for the position of chief minister within or outside the BJP and he leads the chief ministerial race by a wide margin. In to an open ended question on chief minister preference, 24 percent of the voters said they would like to see Rupani back at the helm. The preference for other leaders on the other hand was in single digits. About 7 percent yearn for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come back and govern Gujarat and around 5 percent said they would like to see Anandiben Patel as CM. Interestingly, 43 percent of the voters did not take the name of any leader. What is however most remarkable is that only one Congress leader, Bharatsinh Solanki made it to the top five choices and even his ratings are abysmally low. Only a few respondents (2% of the sample) said they would like to see him as chief minister. Nearly just as many also took the name of Shankersinh Vaghela, the disgruntled Congress leader who quit the party recently. In fact, the poll found Vaghela to be more liked by the people than Solanki. While 45 percent of the voters said they like Vaghela, only 31 percent said they like Solanki (25% had not even heard about him!). Even among traditional Congress voters, Solanki has no edge over Vaghela in terms of likeability (both leaders were liked by 53% such respondents). Meanwhile, in to another question on who the Congress should declare as its chief ministerial candidate, 4 percent of Congress s traditional voters took Vaghela s name (even though he is no longer in the Congress party) and 13 percent said Solanki. Significantly, 41 percent of them did not take the name of any Congress leader indicating the crisis of leadership within the Gujarat Congress at the moment.

4 t only is the Congress s state leadership unpopular, its national leadership s popularity is also on the decline. Less than half (48%) the respondents said that they like Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi. When the same question had been asked by Lokniti in Gujarat during a survey in July 2013, a much higher proportion - 57 percent had said that they liked Gandhi. On the other hand, Prime Minister Modi s already high popularity in the State has grown further over the last four years. In 2013, Modi was liked by 66 percent of Gujarat s voters. In the latest survey, his likeability has touched 82 percent. Surprisingly, BJP President Amit Shah s popularity does not seem to be all that high. Just 50 percent of the voters said they like him (19% like him a lot and 31% like him somewhat). The survey found high satisfaction with the performance of the Modi government at the Centre (67%), although a majority (50%) was also of the opinion that the Prime Minister had not yet succeeded in bringing the achhe din he had promised during the 2014 campaign. Nevertheless, most voters were found to be highly supportive of both demonetization and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and also quite satisfied with the way they were implemented. However, people s approval of GST and the way it has been implemented is not as enthusiastic as their approval of demonetization. While it is still early days and there could still be some twists and turns in Gujarat s politics before voters vote in December, all in all, as the situation exists today the BJP looks extremely comfortably placed to win another term in its bastion.

5 Important findings from the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 Round 1 Gujarat voters voting intention if assembly elections are held now (August 2017) BJP way, way ahead of the Congress four months before actual polls Voting intention at present (Aug 2017) Change since Vidhan Sabha election 2012 (% points) Change since Lok Sabha election 2014 (% points) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Congress (Cong) Others te: The vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by voters through a secret dummy ballot. Undecided voters who did not disclose their preference have been distributed based on their answers to other questions. The figures have also been adjusted for the known patterns of under reporting for small parties and over reporting for the ruling party during pre-poll surveys. Question asked was: If assembly elections in Gujarat take place tomorrow, then which party will you vote for? Pro-incumbency sentiment across all regions at present; strongest in Saurashtra Present State Govt should continue Present State Govt. should perhaps continue Present State Govt should GO! Opinion All of Gujarat Saurashtra and Kutch rth Gujarat Central Gujarat South Gujarat Question asked was: Should the present BJP government in Gujarat get another chance? Voting intentions of castes and communities at the moment - BJP consolidates base and makes gains Caste-community Voting behaviour at present Upper castes Very strongly with BJP Patels Very strongly with BJP Kshatriya Strongly with BJP Kolis Very Strongly with BJP Other OBCs Strongly with BJP Dalits With Congress but BJP has made major inroads Tribals With BJP, used to be with Cong till 2014 Muslims With Congress, but BJP making inroads Spontaneous Chief Minister Preference -Vijay Rupani way ahead of others right now; 43% took no name Vijay Rupani 24 Narendra Modi 7 Anandiben Patel 5 Bharatsinh Solanki 2 Amit Shah 2 Shankersinh Vaghela 2 Ahmed Patel 2 Shaktisinh Gohil 2 Other names (1% or less) 11 Did not take any name 43 Question asked was: After the upcoming assembly election who would you like to see as the chief minister of Gujarat? The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e., respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous s.

6 Crisis of leadership in Gujarat Congress - Staunch Cong voters seem badly divided on the question of who the party s chief ministerial candidate should be; two in every five could not take any name Bharatsinh Solanki Shaktisinh Gohil Ahmed Patel Arjun Modhwadia Shankersinh Vaghela Other leaders All voters Traditional Cong voters Question asked was: Who should the Congress declare as its chief ministerial candidate in the upcoming assembly election? The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e, respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous s. One in every five Congress voters sympathizes with Vaghela and nearly half refused to take a position on the Vaghela issue Cong disrespected Vaghela, hence he was right in leaving the Vaghela betrayed Congress by quitting just before elections opinion party All voters Cong voters BJP voters Others voters Question asked was: People have different opinions about Shankersinh Vaghela leaving the Congress. Some believe that the Congress disrespected a big leader like Vaghela and hence Vaghela s decision to leave the Congress is right. Some others say that the Congress did a lot for Vaghela and it was Vaghela who betrayed the Congress by leaving the party just a few months before the elections? Which opinion among the two do you agree with? At least one in every four Congress voters wants Vaghela to return to the Congress Vaghela should start his own party Vaghela should join BJP Vaghela should return to Congress Quit politics %) All voters Cong voters BJP voters Others voters te: Row percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Question asked was: What should Shankersinh Vaghela do now should he form his own party, should he join the BJP or should he go back to the Congress? (The option of quit politics was a silent option) Divided opinion on recent defection of Congress MLAs to BJP; many did not express an opinion Cong MLAs joined BJP on their own BJP paid Congress MLAs money to join All voters Cong voters BJP voters Others voters Question asked was: People have different opinions about some Congress MLAs joining the BJP. Some say that these MLAs have joined the BJP of their own volition, while some others say that the BJP paid them money to join the party. What is your opinion?

7 Satisfaction with BJP-led State govt. very high although it has dropped somewhat since last survey in May May 2017 August 2017 Fully satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Fully dissatisfied opinion 5 4 TOTAL SATISFIED TOTAL DISSATISFIED te: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the BJP government in Gujarat over the last five years? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat) May 2017 figures are from the Mood of the Nation Survey 2017 conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 587. There is a general perception that the State govt did a good job in dealing with the recent flood situation; even among the few who said their area was badly affected satisfaction was fairly high Satisfied with aid work by State govt. Dissatisfied with aid work by State govt. during & after floods during & after floods All voters Voters who said their area was badly affected (7%) Voters who said their area was somewhat affected (21%) Voters who said their area was not affected at all (68%) (4%) te: Row percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Questions asked were: 1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the aid work done for the people by the Gujarat government during and after the floods? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat) 2. How much was your area affected by the recent floods in Gujarat a lot, somewhat or not at all? Plurality of staunch BJP voters prefer Vijay Rupani s performance to Anandiben Patel s Vijay Rupani has performed better than Anandiben as CM Anandiben Patel performed better than Rupani as CM Both have performed equally well Both have performed equally poorly All voters Traditional/staunch BJP voters Question asked was: Whose performance has been better as chief minister of Gujarat Vijay Rupani s or Anandiben Patel s? Even staunch BJP supporters who prefer Anandiben over Rupani are rooting for the BJP at the moment, although they are slightly less likely to do so than Rupani supporters Voting for BJP Voting for Cong Voting for Others Staunch BJP voters who prefer Anandiben over Rupani Staunch BJP voters who prefer Rupani over Anandiben

8 Like with State govt., satisfaction with Modi s govt continues to be high, however it s declined since May May 2017 % August 2017 % Fully satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied 9 15 Fully dissatisfied 7 11 opinion 10 7 TOTAL SATISFIED TOTAL DISSATISFIED te: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the Narendra Modi led BJP/NDA government at the Centre over the last three years? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat) May 2017 figures are from the Mood of the Nation Survey 2017 conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 587. Despite high satisfaction with Modi, most including many who voted BJP in 2014 still await Achhe Din Agree that Narendra Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din Disagree that Narendra Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din opinion All voters BJP voters of Congress voters of Dalits Muslims Kolis Question asked was: Narendra Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din (good days). Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Tribal households far more likely to have benefitted from Modi s Ujwala & Awaas schemes than others My household has benefitted from Ujwala yojana My household has benefitted from PM Awaas yojana All voters Tribal voters Questions asked were: Have you or any member of your household benefitted from the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana? Have you or any member of your household benefitted from the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana? Modi most liked leader followed by Rupani, Many haven t heard of Solanki, Hardik Patel disliked by most Like Dislike t heard of him Narendra Modi Vijay Rupani Anandiben Patel Amit Shah Rahul Gandhi Shankersinh Vaghela Bharatsinh Solanki Alpesh Thakore Hardik Patel Jignesh Mevani te: Row percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat like or dislike) Strongly and somewhat like have been merged as Like and strongly and somewhat dislike categories have been merged as Dislike

9 Modi s already high popularity has risen in Gujarat in last four years, Rahul Gandhi s has declined Like Dislike Jul 2013 Aug 2017 Jul 2013 Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat) te: Jul 2013 figures are from the Pre-Lok Sabha Election Tracker survey conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 910. Aug 2017 One in four traditional BJP voters thinks the party will suffer electoral losses due to Modi s absence BJP will suffer Modi s absence BJP will gain opinion losses now that Modi is not in Gujarat won t make a difference to the BJP s prospects now that Modi is not in Gujarat All voters Traditional BJP voters Traditional Cong voters Voters not aligned to a party Question asked was: After 15 years, the BJP will fight the assembly election in Gujarat for the first time without Modi. Some believe that due to this the BJP will suffer losses in the upcoming elections compared to the past. While some others believe that this won t make a difference to the BJP s electoral performance. What is your opinion? Even though Hardik Patel is quite unpopular overall, he is quite liked among Patels Like Dislike t heard of him Hardik Patel (opinion among Patels only) Alpesh Thakore (opinion among Kshatriyas only) Jignesh Mevani (opinion among Dalits only) Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat) Leuva Patels seem to be less supportive of Hardik Patel than Kadva Patels Agree that Hardik Patel used the Patidar agitation for his own personal benefit Disagree that Hardik Patel used the Patidar agitation for his own personal benefit opinion All voters Kadva Patel voters Leuva Patel voters Question asked was: Hardik Patel used the Patidar agitation for his own personal benefit. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? ((If agrees then probe whether fully or somewhat. If disagrees then probe whether fully or somewhat) Most important election issues will be price rise, jobs & poverty; one in four couldn t think of an issue Price rise 13 Unemployment 10 Poverty 9 Development 7 Drinking water supply 5

10 Corruption 5 Poor condition of roads 4 Good condition of roads 3 Housing 3 Farmer problems 3 Other issues (1% or less) Question asked was: If assembly elections in Gujarat take place tomorrow, then what will be the most important issue for you while voting? (te down answer and consult codebook for coding) The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e, respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous s Plurality supports demonetization and GST; but support for GST is much lower than for demonetization Demonetization was a good move 55 Demonetization was a so-so move 22 Demonetization was a bad move 19 opinion 4 GST was a good move 38 GST was a so-so move 22 GST was a bad move 25 opinion 15 Question asked was: In your opinion was the decision of Demonetisation taken by the Modi government good or bad? Question asked was: In your opinion was the decision of GST taken by the Modi government good or bad? Plurality satisfied with how demonetization and GST were implemented, however satisfaction with GST implementation is much lower than with demonetization % Satisfied with Demonetization implementation 67 Dissatisfied with Demonetization implementation 29 opinion 4 Satisfied with GST implementation 52 Dissatisfied with GST implementation 33 opinion 15 Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Demonetisation was implemented? (Probe whether fully or somewhat) Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way GST was implemented? (Probe whether fully or somewhat) Support for Patel demand for OBC status only among Patels Support Patel demand for OBC status Oppose Pated demand for OBC status opinion All voters Patel voters Upper caste voters OBC voters Dalit voters Tribal voters Muslim voters Question asked was: Do you support or oppose the demand by the Patel-Patidar community for inclusion in the OBC category? supports then probe whether fully or somewhat. If opposes then probe whether fully or somewhat) (If

11 Awareness about Una incident higher than average among Dalits, but one in four haven t heard of it Heard of Una flogging incident All voters 58 Dalit voters 74 Question asked was: Have you heard about the incident of atrocity against Dalits in Una? Dalit voters who haven t heard of Una incident far more likely to vote BJP than those who are aware of it Voting for BJP Dalit voters who have heard of Una (74%) 35 Dalit voters who haven t heard of Una (26%) 51 Even as most farmers, traders, youths and women feel the State govt has succeeded in resolving their problems, they are more likely to say somewhat succeeded than fully succeeded ; youths least satisfied Guj. Govt. has Fully succeeded Guj. Govt. has Somewhat succeeded Guj. Govt. has Somewhat Failed Guj. Govt. has Fully failed Resolving farmer problems (farmer s only) Resolving Traders problems (traders s only) Resolving Youths problems (f18-35 year old s only) Resolving Women s problems (women s only) Question asked was: In your opinion has the Gujarat government succeeded or failed in resolving the problems of the following communities? (If succeeded then probe whether fully or somewhat. If failed then probe whether fully or somewhat) State govt gets low ratings on issue of caste welfare; all communities feel it s failed in resolving their woes In resolving my caste-community s problems, the Gujarat govt. has Fully succeeded Somewhat succeeded Somewhat failed Fully failed Opinion Upper castes Patels OBCs Dalits Tribals Muslims Question asked was: In your opinion has the Gujarat government succeeded or failed in resolving the problems of your caste-community? (If succeeded then probe whether fully or somewhat. If failed then probe whether fully or somewhat)