Office Hours: MW 1:30-2:30, or by appointment Phone:

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1 Prof. Matthew A. Baum Fall 2009 Office: T244 MW 2:40-4 p.m. Location: T301 Office Hours: MW 1:30-2:30, or by appointment Phone: DPI-611/Gov Mass Media, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Syllabus Overview: This course will investigate the various means, both direct and indirect, through which the mass media and public opinion can influence the foreign policy making process. We will review historical perspectives regarding the proper role (or lack thereof) of public opinion in foreign policy, as well as more recent challenges to this perspective. This review will include a discussion of whether and how the media influences what the public thinks about politics in general, and foreign affairs in particular. We will consider such issues as: How does the public learn about foreign policy? Do they care about it? If so, under what circumstances will political leaders be responsive to the public's preferences? Do politics really stop at the water's edge? What effect, if any, has the advent of real-time global news reporting had on U.S. foreign policy (e.g. the so-called "CNN Effect )? Does this represent a qualitative change, or are such claims exaggerated? The goal is to develop a coherent view of the interaction between the mass media, public opinion and political leaders with respect to foreign affairs. Requirements: There will be one paper (20-30 pages, double spaced), based on the material covered in the course. Students will also present their preliminary research to the class, as well as prepare and present to the class brief summaries of select readings. The paper counts for 40% of your grade, the research presentation counts for 10%, oral participation in class counts for 35% and written summaries count for 15%. Paper: The term paper can be either a literature review on one or two of the topics covered in the course or a research paper on a topic of the student s choice. Students must submit a paper proposal, for approval, no later than the fifth meeting of the course. The final paper will be due on the day of the final exam. Readings: There are three books assigned for the course: o Asher, Herbert Polling and the Public, 7 th Edition. Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press. o Popkin, Samuel The Reasoning Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. o Bennett, W. Lance and David L. Paletz, editors Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. All other readings will be available either on-line (on the course page) or in a course packet (or both). Introduction (September 2) No Class September 7 (Labor Day) I. Where Public Opinion Comes From (September 9 & 11) Nature and structure of opinions and belief systems Ideological innocence vs. low-information rationality - Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes The American Voter, New York: Wiley. Ch (pp )

2 - Sniderman, Paul A New Look in Public Opinion Research. In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, edited by Ada Finifter. American Political Science Association: Washington, D.C., pp Popkin, Samuel The Reasoning Voter. Chapters 1-4, pp Kelly, Stanley Jr. and Thad W. Mirer The Simple Act of Voting. American Political Science Review 68(January): (JSTOR) - Rahn, Wendy M., John A. Krosnik and Marijke Breuning Rationalization and Derivation Processes in Survey Studies of Political Candidate Evaluation. American Journal of Political Science 38(August): (JSTOR) - Zaller, John and Stanley Feldman A Simple Theory of Survey Response. American Journal of Political Science, 36: (JSTOR) II. What the Public Thinks/Knows About Foreign Policy (September 14 & 16) Public ignorance and/or knowledge of foreign affairs Mass vs. elite beliefs about foreign affairs Isolationism vs. Internationalism - Holsti, Ole, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Challenges to the Almond- Lippmann Consensus International Studies Quarterly 36(December): (JSTOR) - Hurwitz, J. and Peffley, M How are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model. American Political Science Review 81(4): (JSTOR) - Aldrich, John H., John L. Sullivan and Eugene Borgida Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates Waltz Before a Blind Audience? American Political Science Review, 83:1: (JSTOR) - Herrmann, Richard K., Philip E. Tetlock and Penny S. Visser Mass Public Decisions to Go to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework. American Political Science Review 93(September): (JSTOR) - Brewer, Paul R., Kimberly Gross, Sean Aday, and Lars Willnat International Trust and Public Opinion about World Affairs. American Journal of Political Science 48(January): Page, Benjamin I. and Marshall M. Bouton The Foreign Policy Dis*Connect: What Americans WANT from our Leaders but DON T GET. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Chapter 4: Military Strength and the Use of Force, pp III. How the Public Learns About Foreign Policy (September 21 & 23) Priming, Framing & Agenda Setting The Roles of the Media and Elites - Druckman, James N The Implications of Framing Effects for Citizen Competence. Political Behavior 23: Iyengar, Shanto and Adam Simon News Coverage of the Gulf Crisis and Public Opinion. Ch. 8 in Bennett and Paletz, pp Krosnick, J.A. and L.A. Brannon The Impact of the Gulf War on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations: Multidimensional Effects of Political Involvement. American Political Science Review 87: (JSTOR) - Entman, Robert M Projections of Power: Framing News, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Chapter 2, pp Jordan, D.L. and B.I. Page (1992) Shaping Foreign Policy Opinions: The Role of TV News. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36: (JSTOR) - Zaller, John. Elite Leadership of Mass Opinion: New Evidence from the Gulf War. In Taken by Storm (Chapter 9, pp )

3 - Baum, Matthew A Sex, Lies and War: How Soft News Brings Foreign Policy to the Inattentive Public. American Political Science Review 96 (March): (JSTOR) IV. Determinants of Public Support: Short vs. Longer-term (September 28 & 30) Short Term: The President and The Rally Effect - Brody, Richard A The Rally Phenomenon in Public Opinion. Ch 3 in. Assessing the President. Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp Kernell, Samuel Going Public. Third Edition. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press. Chapter 6, Opinion Leadership and Foreign Affairs, pp Baum, Matthew A The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the- Flag Phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly 46(June): (Available at: Longer Term: Casualties, Principle Policy Objective, Success, Framing - Eichenberg, Richard C Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, International Security 30(Summer): Feaver, Peter D. and Christopher Gelpi Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Chapter 4, pp Baum, Matthew A. and Tim Groeling Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality. International Organization (Forthcoming 2010). - Berinsky, Adam Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict. Journal of Politics 69(November): VI. Who Influences Whom? (October 5 & 7) The Media vs. The Government - Bartels, Larry M Politicians and the Press: Who Leads, Who Follows? Paper presented to the 1996 Meeting of the American Political Science Association. San Francisco, CA (September). - Page, Benjamin and Robert Enteman The News Before the Storm. In Taken by Storm (Chapter 4, pp ). - Entman, Robert M Projections of Power: Framing News, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. (Chapter 1, pp ) - Shapiro, Robert Y. and Lawrence R. Jacobs Who Leads and Who Follows? U.S. Presidents, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy. In Nacos, Brigitte L., Robert Y. Shapiro and Pierangelo Isernia, eds. Decisionmaking in a Glass House: Mass Media, Public Opinion, and American and European Foreign Policy in the 21 st Century. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., Ch. 14, pp Edwards, George C. III and B. Dan Wood Who Influences Whom? The President, Congress, and the Media. American Political Science Association 93(June): (JSTOR) - Patrick, Brian A. and A. Trevor Thrall Beyond Hegemony: Classical Propaganda Theory and Presidential Communication Strategy After the Invasion of Iraq. Mass Communication & Society 10:1: No class October 12 (Columbus Day) V. Measuring Public Opinion (October 14) Public opinion polling: uses and misuses How leaders gauge public opinion

4 Uses and Misuses of Public Opinion Polling - Asher, Herbert Polling and the Public, 7 th Edition. Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press. How Leaders Gauge Public Opinion - Zaller, John Strategic Politicians, Public Opinion and the Gulf Crisis. Ch. 12 in Bennett and Paletz, pp Powlick, Philip J The Sources of Public Opinion for American Foreign Policy Officials. International Studies Quarterly. 39:4: (JSTOR) - Heith, Diane J One for All: Using Focus Groups and Opinion Polls in the George H.W. Bush White House. Congress & The Presidency 30:1: (JSTOR) VII. How the Media Cover Foreign Affairs (October 19 & 21) Incentive structures (economic, political, technological and institutional) Sources of news What gets covered? - Zaller, John A Theory of Media Politics: How the Interests of Politicians, Journalists, and Citizens Shape the News. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Unpublished Manuscript. Chapters 2-3, pp (Available at: pdf - Hamilton, James T All the News That s Fit to Sell: How the Market Transforms Information into News. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Chapter 1. (Available at: - Cook, Timothy Domesticating a Crisis: Washington News Beats and Network News after the Iraq Invasion of Kuwait In Taken by Storm (Chapter. 5, pp ). - Hess, Stephen International News and Foreign Correspondents. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Chapter 3, What Gets Covered and Where?, pp.28-46, and Chapter 5, The Technology of International News, pp Seib, Phillip Beyond the Front Lines: How the News Media Cover a World Shaped by War, Chapters 1-2, pp Zaller, John and Dennis Chiu Government s Little Helper: U.S. Press Coverage of Foreign Policy Crises, In Nacos, Brigitte L., Robert Y. Shapiro and Pierangelo Isernia, eds. Decisionmaking in a Glass House: Mass Media, Public Opinion, and American and European Foreign Policy in the 21 st Century. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., Ch. 5, pp VIII. Influence of Public Opinion on Foreign Policy (October 26 & 28) - Bartels, Larry M Constituency Opinion and Congressional Policy Making: The Reagan Defense Buildup. American Political Science Review 85 (June): (JSTOR) - Page, Benjamin I. and Robert Y. Shapiro Effects of Public Opinion on Policy. American Political Science Review. 77:1: (JSTOR) - Baum, Matthew A Going Private: Presidential Rhetoric, Public Opinion, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(October): Jacobs, Lawrence, R. and Benjamin I. Page Who Influences U.S. Foreign Policy? American Political Science Review 99(February): Aldrich, John H., Christopher Gelpi, Peter Feaver, Jason Reifler, and Kristin Thompson Sharp Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection. Annual Review of Political Science 9:

5 - Canes-Wrone, Brandice Who Leads Whom? Presidents, Policy, and the Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Chapters 1-2, and 4 pp and IX Influence of the Media on Foreign Policy (November 2 & 4) - Baum, Matthew A. and Philip B. K. Potter. The Relationship Between Mass Media, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis. Annual Review of Political Science (Volume 11: 2008). - Choi, Seung-Whan and Patrick James. Media Openness, Democracy, and Militarized Interstate Disputes. British Journal of Political Science 37: Wolfsfeld, Gadi Media and the Path to Peace. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Chapter 1, Building Theory, pp Gilboa E The CNN effect: the Search for a Communication Theory of International Relations. Political Communication 22(1): Jakobsen, Peter Viggo Focus on the CNN Effect Misses the Point: The Real Impact on Conflict Management is Invisible and Indirect. Journal of Peace Research 37(March): (JSTOR) - Mermin, Jonathin Television News and American Intervention in Somalia: The Myth of a Media-Driven Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly 112(Autumn): (JSTOR) - Slantchev, Branislav. Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs. International Studies Quarterly 50(June): November 9: Research Presentations No class on November 11 (Veterans Day) November 16 & 18: Research Presentations X. Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Force (November 23 & 25) - Levy, J.S The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique. Handbook of War Studies. Midlarsky, M.I., editor. New York: Unwin-Hyman, pp Fordham, Benjamin, O Strategic Conflict Avoidance and the Diversionary Use of Force. Journal of Politics 67(February): Smith, Alastair. (1996) Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems. International Studies Quarterly 40: (JSTOR) - Morgan, Clifton T and Kenneth N. Bickers Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36(March): (JSTOR) - Gowa, Joanne Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad. International Organization 52(Spring):2. (JSTOR) - Oneal, John R. and Jaroslav Tir Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict. International Studies Quarterly 50(4): XI. Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy, A Comparative View (November 30 & December 2) - Risse-Kappen, Thomas Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies. World Politics 43(July): (JSTOR) - Robinson, Piers Theorizing the Influence of Media on World Politics: Models of Media Influence on Foreign Policy. European Journal of Communication 16(4): Soroka, Stuart, N Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy. Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics 8(1):

6 - Trumbore, Peter F Public Opinion as a Domestic Constraint in International Negotiations: Two-Level Games in the Anglo-Irish Peace Process. International Studies Quarterly 42: (JSTOR) - Isernia, Peirangelo, Zoltan Juhasz, and Hans Rattinger Foreign Policy and the Rational Public in Comparative Perspective. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(2): Hurwitz, Jon, Mark Peffley, and Mitchell A. Seligson Foreign Policy Belief Systems in Comparative Perspective: The United States and Costa Rica. International Studies Quarterly 3(September): (JSTOR) - Schudson, Michael The News Media as Political Institutions. Annual Review of Political Science 5: Baum, Matthew A A Coalition of the Unrestrained: Mass Media, Electoral Institutions, and the Constraining Effect of Public Opinion Regarding Iraq. Paper presented at the 2008 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA.