World Peace Index Its Significance and Contribution to the Scientific Study of World Peace

Transcription

1 World Peace Index Its Significance and Contribution to the Scientific Study of World Peace The 3 rd OECD WORLD FORUM October 29, 2009, BUSAN, KOREA Sang-Hyun Lee Acting Director, The World Peace Forum Senior Research Fellow, The Sejong Institute

2 Overview Background UNESCO and the Culture of Peace World Peace Index Project Methodology Conceptualization Structure of the Index World Peace Index 2009 Rankings and Main Features Policy Implications 2

3 WPI: Its Background Project Launched in 2000 Initiated in 2000 by Peace Forum of the Munhwa Ilbo Daily as a company project Collaborated with Presidential Commission for New Millennium and the Korea Commission for UNESCO World Peace Forum separated from Munhwa Ilbo, becoming an independent think tank in 2002 Goals of the Project Spread the paradigm of peace as a universal value Enhance public awareness of peace Alert the global community of the state of non-peace Stimulate a world-wide peace movement, and Promote peace studies and the level of peace throughout the world 3

4 UNESCO and the Culture of Peace Why Culture of Peace? Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defences of peace must be constructed. Constitution of UNESCO, 1945, Preamble What is Culture of Peace? As defined by the United Nations, the Culture of Peace is a set of values, attitudes, modes of behaviour and ways of life that reject violence and prevent conflicts by tackling their root causes to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation among individuals, groups and nations (UN Resolutions A/RES/52/13 : Culture of Peace and A/RES/53/243, Declaration and Programme of Action on a Culture of Peace). 4

5 Measuring Peace: Similar Attempts Social, Economic Indicators Gini index (measure of inequality), Happiness index, Human Development Reports (UNDP), World Development Indicators (World Bank) and other general statistics International Politics Correlates of War, WEIS (World Events Interaction Survey), COPDAB (Conflict and Peace Data Bank), Freedom House index, Index of State Weakness Others Global Peace Index 5

6 Index of State Weakness 6

7 GPI and Index of State Weakness 7

8 Conceptualizing the Peace Negative vs. Positive Peace Peace is not simply a lack of war ; not a dichotomous value (i.e, peace-war) Peace at Different Levels of Society Macro/societal level: security would be the central element of peace Micro/individual level: safety of individuals Structure and Change in Peace Level Structural elements historical events Behavioral elements current events Peace at Three Different Social Dimensions Political peace freedom from fear Military/diplomatic freedom from violence and conflict Social/economic freedom from want, quality of life, security and safety 8

9 Constructing the Index A. Political Dimension B. Military/Diplomatic Dimension 1. Historical experiences of Domestic political conflict 1-1. Civil Wars 1-2. Political conflicts such as coup d etat or riots 1. Historical experiences of international conflict 1-1. Wars 1-2. Colonial experience 1-3. Geopolitical conditions C. Socio-Economic Dimension 1. Social safety and stability 1-1. Ecological and social safety 1-2. Personal stability 1-3. Social stability 2. Democracy and capacity of the state 2-1. Democratization 2-2. Human rights 2-3. Political transparency 3. Outstanding/ongoing domestic political conflicts 3-1. Civil wars 3-2. Political conflicts such as coup d etat or riots 3-3. Measures for democratization (Negotiation or agreement for resolution) 2. Militarization 2-1. Military expenditures 2-2. Armed forces 2-3. International treaties against weapons of mass destruction 3. International conflict 3-1. Wars 3-2. Use of force other than wars 3-3. Use of violence 3-4. Non-military violence 3-5. Establishing/breaking off diplomatic relations 2. Inequality and exclusion 2-1. Poverty and deficiency 2-2. Differences and inequalities 3. Qualify of life and social safety net 3-1. Quality of life 3-2. Social security 9

10 Operationalization and Measurement Variables and Coding Example Political dimension Historical experience of domestic political conflicts A1-1: Civil wars A11a frequency of civil wars in 1943~1972 (0: none, 1: once, 2: twice or more) A11b size of casualties from civil wars in 1943~1972 (0: less than 1/10,000 population, 1: 1/10,000 or more) A11c frequency of civil wars in 1973~2002 (0: none, 1: once, 2: twice or more) * (weighted twice) A11d - size of casualties from civil wars in 1973~2002 (0: less than 1/10,000 population, 1: 1/10,000 or more) * (weighted twice) A1-2: Coup d etat and other types of political conflicts A12 coup d etat and other types of political conflicts (0: none from 1943~2002, 1: occurred from 1943~1992, 2: occurred from 1993~2002) A1 = ((A11a+A11b)+(A11c+A11d)*2)+A12)/11 A01 = (1-A1)*100 greater values mean more peaceful historical experience 10

11 Operationalization and Measurement Calculating Composite Index Discrete measure for each individual variables Sum up and scale so that each categorical variables vary between 0 and 100 (positive values indicates more peaceful state) World Peace Index = (A 01 +A 02 +A 03 +B 01 +B 02 + B 03 +C 01 +C 02 +C 03 )/9. Political Peace Index = (A 01 +A 02 +A 03 )/3. Military/diplomatic Peace Index = (B 01 +B 02 +B 03 )/3. Social/Economic Peace Index = (C 01 +C 02 +C 03 )/3. 11

12 Data and Coding Principles Data Sources Correlates of War data set UNDP, Human Development Report World Bank, World Development Indicators Freedom House Survey of political freedom Corruption perception index Facts on File CIA, World Factbook Encyclopedia Britannica The Military Balance Major public media of the world Coding Reliability Cross-check among graduate student coders for inter-coder reliability Check on raw data for suspicious coding Extrapolation for missing values, using SPSS statistical analysis tool 12

13 WPI 2009 Rankings (76 Countries) Rank Nation WPI Rank Nation WPI Rank Nation WPI Rank Nation WPI 1 Sweden Costa Rica Croatia Bangladesh Denmark Belgium Malaysia Thailand Switzerland Czech Venezuela Morocco Netherlands Japan France Israel Germany Chile Argentina Kenya Austria Brazil South Africa Egypt Norway United Kingdom South Korea Indonesia Finland Bulgaria Kazakhstan China Canada Jamaica Ecuador Turkey Australia Lithuania Romania Iran New Zealand Trinidad & Tobago Russia Philippines Ireland Ukraine El Salvador Colombia Hungary Spain United States Zimbabwe Luxemburg Italy Nicaragua Syria Portugal Singapore Greece Algeria Poland Albania Bolivia Nigeria Slovenia Mauritus Belarus Sri Lanka Uruguay Mexico Peru India Panama Tunisia Jordan Pakistan

14 WPI 2009: by Region and Income Category N WPI 2009 Political PI Military- Diplomatic PI Socio- Economic PI World Average America Europe Region Sub-Saharan Arab & North Africa Asia-Pacific High(Above $16,000) Income Level Mid($3,000~15,999) Low(Below $2,999 ) (For 76 countries) 14

15 평화지수 세계평화지수 Trends in WPI, 2002~2009 그림1. 세계평화수준의변화 그림2. 영역별평화수준의변화 연도 연도 정치 군사외교 사회경제 15

16 Military-Diplomatic Index (140 Countries) Rank Nation WPI Rank Nation WPI Rank Nation WPI Rank Nation WPI 1 Germany Canada Singapore Lebanon Japan South Africa South Korea Angola Zambia Jamaica Oman India Switzerland Mauritus Namibia United States Sweden Iceland Tanzania Georgia Denmark Romania Malawi Armenia Netherlands Belgium Qatar Iran Italy Ireland Thailand Egypt Guatemala Indonesia Chad Russia Austria Norway Kuwait Myanmar Poland Mongolia Gabon Pakistan Costa Rica Nigeria Libya Azerbaijan Panama Venezuela Ethiopia Colombia Australia Sri Lanka Saudi Arabia Jordan Nicaragua Philippines Uzbekistan North Korea Portugal Bolivia Uganda United Arab Emirate Hungary Argentina Sudan Israel New Zealand Uruguay Vietnam Cambodia Brazil Lithuania Burundi Syria Fiji Czech Morocco Iraq

17 Conclusions and Implications Peace is Indivisible Not only military situations, but also socioeconomic conditions are important Holistic approach is necessary Global initiative is strongly required Importance of Geopolitical Location Being the population size and the per capita income being equal, Americas and European region tend to show higher level of peace Need to spread the benefits of globalization more evenly throughout the world 17

18 Conclusions and Implications (cont.) Growing Gaps Military-diplomatic PI and Socio-economic PI s are on the rise Political PI continues to decline Gaps between rich and poor regions are also growing What Should Be Done? Global efforts are essential because peace is indeed a global issue Sharing responsibility particularly those who have more resources 18

19 Thank you. Any comment or question? 19