Table 1: Lok Sabha elections - Pre poll estimated vote share for Uttar Pradesh BJP maintains big lead over opponents. Survey-based vote estimate (%)

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1 Uttar Pradesh Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off; hence they may not add up to 100 where they should. 2. Weighted Data. 3. Figures for January and February based on Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Tracker Polls conducted in Uttar Pradesh. 4. Figures for March based on Lokniti, CSDS-IBN NES Pre Poll survey conducted in Uttar Pradesh (fresh sample). 5. March survey fieldwork conducted between 19th and 24th March in 38 Parliamentary seats. 6. Sample size for March is 2633; Sample size for February was 2860; Sample size in January was Table 1: Lok Sabha elections - Pre poll estimated vote share for Uttar Pradesh BJP maintains big lead over opponents Party/Alliance Actual vote in 2009 Lok Sabha Elections Survey-based vote estimate February Survey-based vote estimate March BJP+Apna Dal SP BSP Cong+RLD AAP Others Question asked: If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box.

2 Table 2: The regional picture Regions Western UP Ruhelkhand Awadh Doab Bundelkhand Poorvanchal BJP ahead, benefitting from divided vote among opponents SP and BJP neck and neck BJP leads; Cong second BJP leads; SP second BJP and SP neck and neck BJP leads; BSP and SP its main opponents Table 3: BJP leads opponents by a wide margin in rural areas; contest closer in urban areas BJP SP BSP Cong Rural Urba n The rest of the respondents indicated a vote preference for other parties Question asked: If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box.

3 Table 4: Caste Upper castes & Lower OBCs with BJP; Yadavs with SP; Jatavs with BSP; Muslim vote divided between SP, BSP and Congress. BJP SP BSP Cong Upper caste Yadav Other OBC Jatavs Other SC Muslim The rest of the respondents indicated a vote preference for other parties Question asked: If Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box. Table 5: PM choice of Uttar Pradesh No change since February survey, Modi maintains wide lead over others Prime Minister choice in Uttar Pradesh Opinion in Uttar Pradesh Feb Mar Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi 2 3 Manmohan Singh 3 1 Mayawati Mulayam Singh Yadav Arvind Kejriwal 4 2 Akhilesh Yadav 2 2 Others 7 4 Can t say Question asked: Who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country after the next/ Lok Sabha election?

4 Table 5a: Modi s popularity highest in Eastern UP and Doab Want Modi as PM Eastern UP 38 Doab 38 Western UP 34 Awadh 33 North East UP 31 Ruhelkhand 27 Bundelkhand 27 Table 6: Awareness about Muzaffarnagar riots has increased since January Muzaffarnagar riots Jan Mar Heard of it Not heard of it Question asked: Have you heard of the Muzaffarnagar riots?

5 Table 6a: Handling of Muzaffarnagar riots aftermath Dissatisfaction with SP govt overall, divided opinion among Muslims Handling of aftermath of Muzaffarnagar riots by State govt. All Muslims Satisfied with way SP govt has handled aftermath of riots Dissatisfied with way SP govt has handled aftermath of riots Can t say Question asked: (If heard of riots) Are you satisfied with the way the Uttar Pradesh government has handled the aftermath of the Muzaffarnagar Table 6b: Samajwadi Party gets maximum blame for Muzaffarnagar riots followed by BJP Which party is most % responsible for Muzaffarnagar riots? SP 40 BJP 13 BSP 3 INC 4 Others 3 The rest did not give an opinion Question asked: (If heard of riots) In your opinion which party is most responsible for the Muzaffarnagar riots? (Record answer and code from code book. Take up to two answers, but don t force respondent to give two answers)

6 Table 7: High support for Jat reservation decision of UPA among Jats but not much support among OBCs Decision to give reservation to Jats in Central govt jobs under OBC quota Jats OBCs Support the decision Oppose the decision Can t say 9 42 Question asked: Do you support or oppose the UPA government s decision to give reservation to the Jat community in central government jobs and educational institutions from the OBC quota? Table 8: Net satisfaction with both State and Central governments continues to be low (Net satisfaction is Satisfaction percentage minus dissatisfaction percentage) Net satisfaction with Feb Mar Performance of State govt Performance of Central govt Questions asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the SP govt in Uttar Pradesh over the last two years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last 5 years? Table 9: Strong anti-upa mood continues in Uttar Pradesh Should the UPA govt. get another chance after the Lok Sabha poll? Feb Mar Yes No Can t say Question asked: Should the Congress-led UPA government get another chance after the Lok Sabha election?

7 Table 10: Top five issues in Uttar Pradesh Key voting issues in Uttar Pradesh % Development 20 Price rise 17 Corruption 17 Unemployment 8 Condition of roads 5 The rest of the respondents gave other answers. Question asked: What will be the single most important issue for you when you vote in the Lok Sabha election? (Record first answer and consult code book for coding)