United Nations Development Program. Handbook for practitioners: How to develop a conflict prevention strategy?

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2 United Nations Development Program : Bishkek 2011

3 This methodological handbook was elaborated for practicing users: experts, state employees, NGO staff, researchers and students with an interest in the field of conflict resolution. The purpose of this handbook is to provide a description of the most effective tools available for conflict analysis, and methods of working out strategies for conflict prevention. It is intended to help experts analyze conflict, and develop successful strategies for conflict prevention. The manual was elaborated within the framework of the Trans boundary project of the Peace and development program of UNDP - Kyrgyzstan. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations, the United Nations Development Programme, its programmes/projects or governments. The illustrations used reflect the personal views of the authors and do not constitute the official position of the United Nations, Development Programme, its programmes/projects or governments Author: Azamat Temirkulov is an expert of the Institute for Peacebuilding and Conflict Studies (IPCS), Assistant Professor, Chair of the International and Comparative Politics (ICP) Department at the American University in Central Asia (AUCA). temirkulov_a@mail.auca.kg English translation: Madina Sarkulova, Editor, American University in Central Asia (AUCA). Design: ОП «TotelPrint»,

4 Acknowledgements The author thanks the Peace and development program of UNDP-Kyrgyzstan, and all those who helped to make this publication become possible.

5 Acronyms UNDP - the United Nations Organization Development Program NGO - Non-Governmental Organization LG - Local Government OSCE - Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe

6 Content Acronyms... 4 Content... 5 Glossary... 6 Step 1: Conflict profile (What? Where? When?)... 9 Step 2: Stakeholder analysis (Who?) Step 3: Causes analysis (Why?) Step 4: Determination of indicators Step 5: Determination of tendencies Step 6: Determination of purposes and tasks Step 7: Review of results according to the "do not harm" principle Conclusion... 29

7 Glossary Conflict - a situation in which two or more groups of people have opposing interests and attempt to realize them. Conflict has several phases and is not always violent. Conflict potential causes and factors which act as conditions for a conflict. Conflict trigger a separate key action, event, or expectation which can provoke conflict escalation. For example: a household fight, article in the newspaper, statement by a leader, etc. Conflicting parties those groups involved in a direct clash over the realization of separate or opposing interests. Conflict stakeholder - a designation used for all groups or individuals that have any relation to a specific conflict, whether direct or indirect.

8 Introduction This handbook is the description of the most effective tools for conflict analysis and a method of working out a strategy for conflict prevention. It is intended to help experts to analyze conflict and to develop a strategy for conflict prevention. Conflict analysis and development of conflict preventing strategy are parts of a larger process, which, in addition to the two aforementioned steps, includes field research (expert interviews, focus groups, surveys) and lobbying. Figure 1, Action Result, shows a full cycle of actions and their ensuing results in a chronological order. Figure 1: Action - Result Action Result Data collection Database Data analysis Analytical conclusions Development of strategies for conflict prevention Strategy for conflict prevention Writing of the report Report on strategies for conflict prevention Lobbying Implementation of the strategy in practice The process of developing a strategy for conflict prevention follows this exact logic. For example, it is impossible to start directly with Development of a strategy, without having carried out Conflict analysis, just as it is impossible to begin Conflict analysis without having gone through the Data collection step, and thus, lacking any relevant information. While the full cycle of developing a conflict preventing strategy is not limited to analysis and strategy development, but extends further to data collection and implementation, this guide will discuss only two parts: analysis and strategy development.

9 Nevertheless, it is necessary to underline, that the process of developing a conflict preventing strategy should not be limited to writing of the final report with general recommendations. It would be much more effective if the report is not only published, but is also disseminated among each target group. That way, it will be actively promoted by its authors and developers, as well as lobbied by interested stakeholders (deputies, representatives of local communities, NGOs, etc.). In the given methodology, the focus of study is the conflict potential, rather than its manifestations or consequences. This particular focus helps to better identify the root causes of the conflict, and thus, provides an opportunity to explore these causes before the conflict moved into a more complex stage. Furthermore, it allows you to develop more effective indicators of the conflict. The aim of this methodology is to prevent conflict by reducing conflict potential. The methodology presented here is entirely based on indicators that are central in the development of strategy for reducing conflict potential. This allows us to establish more specific purposes and tasks. Additionally, such an approach can be effectively used in carrying out Early warning. The underlying principle of this guide s methodology is that recommendations should not be developed on the spatial subjective representations of the expert, but should rather follow their own accord from the logically constructed system of analysis. The process of developing a conflict preventing strategy consists of two parts that are divided into seven steps. The first part, entitled Conflict analysis, includes five steps. Conflict analysis is a stepby-step study of factors, causes, and dynamics of the conflict, focused on further actions that would reduce conflict potential. The purpose of conflict analysis is to gain a deeper understanding of the problem in order to formulate a conflict preventing strategy that would palpably lower conflict potential and will contribute to its resolution. Not only experts should be involved in the course of analysis, but also conflict stakeholders, who are an important and an irreplaceable source of information. It is a well-known fact that conflicting groups perceive, remember, and evaluate the same events differently. Therefore, various stakeholders of the conflict can apply the tools described below, thereby making the analysis participatory in nature. Their opinions can be compared and analyzed in order to obtain a more objective picture. Conflict analysis includes the following steps: 1. Conflict description 2. Stakeholders analysis 3. Causes analysis 4. Determination of indicators 5. Determination of tendencies The second part consists of two steps and is a direct stage in the development of a conflict preventing strategy. A conflict preventing strategy is a plan of actions that are necessary for lowering conflict potential. A strategy is derived from the results acquired from the first five steps of conflict analysis. This strategy can be developed for a specific organization, as well as several organizations that have the capabilities and resources to reduce conflict potential (government, donor organizations, NGOs, etc.). The proposed approach to conflict preventing strategy is focused on indicators that play a key role in the development of a strategy. Developing such a strategy involves the following steps: 6. Determination of purposes and tasks 7. Review of results according to the "do not harm" principle

10 Step 1: Conflict profile (What? Where? When?) This step provides a short description of the conflict. Based on a set of key questions, the conflict profile allows the user to briefly overview the causes, extent and development of the conflict. This results in a more realistic understanding of the problem and obstacles facing a conflict preventing strategy. Key questions WHAT: - determines causes and the type of conflict? WHERE: - indicates where and at what level a conflict is taking place? Where are the important areas of the conflict, borders, and disputed territories? WHEN: - projects the time factor, conflict stages, and its development in recent years? What events occurred and when? What is the current stage of the conflict? Tools WHAT: Conflict profile; WHEN: Phases of conflict, Timeline; WHERE: Conflict arena. WHAT? Tool: CONFLICT PROFILE Conflict profile is only a preliminary description, and contains only the assumptions and hypotheses that can be confirmed or revised by subsequent detailed analysis. For example, two different profiles can be created, taking into account the views of both sides of the conflict. Application Gather literature on a particular conflict and identify its experts. Use a list of key questions, working with literature, interviews with experts and conflict stakeholders. Compose a short description of the conflict (approximately 2 pages). WHEN? Tool: PHASES OF CONFLICT Conflicts have their own unique story, each with its own course and various phases, levels of intensity, and violence. It is important to determine these different phases, because each of them presents distinct challenges and opportunities for internal and external stakeholders. The intensity of the conflict in a certain period of time can be represented by a graph. The various parties involved can register phases of conflict differently. It often demonstrates contradictions that provide interesting material for further analysis.

11 It is recommended to use the Phases of conflict tool in conjunction with the Timeline tool (see below) for additional information on major events. In general, five phases of conflict can be discerned: 1. Latent conflict: a situation where there is apparent stability, structural causes of conflict are already present, and at least one of the conflicting parties is aware of them. Relations between the parties are strained. There are opportunities to solve the problem without letting it progress into a more acute form. However, even at this stage, the situation can advance into accidental violence. 2.Conflict escalation: an augmentation of social tension, which has now become a mark of the general public, due to the fact that the behavior of one or more disputing parties became increasingly confrontational (e.g. demonstrations, minor collisions). Degree of mutual trust decreases rapidly and parties are preparing for further confrontation (gathering of resources, formation of coalitions). 3. Open violent conflict: the conflict situation spanned out of control and is at its most intense period. Both conflicting parties mobilized available resources, the level of violence is high, and the dialogue between them is almost impossible. Peaceful solutions of the conflict seem to be out of the question. 4. Conflict resolution: the crisis ended by means of surrender, victory of one party, peaceful negotiations, third party intervention or other causes. The level of violence and tension decreased, and dialogue between conflicting parties becomes possible once again. 5. Transition to post-conflict situations: the situation is stabilized despite the continuous presence of various doubts. If the causes and consequences of the conflict are not examined at this stage, there is a risk of renewed escalation. Application Show the intensity of the conflict during a period of time on a graph (X-axis: time, Y-axis: conflict intensity). Discuss and determine the criteria for evaluation of conflict intensity. Discuss the causes of events depicted in the graph (for example, growth or decline, periods of apparent tranquility). As part of step 5, Determination of trends (see below): discuss the future direction of the conflict. Source: Lund 1997, Fisher et al. 2000, Klingebiel et al. 2000, Leonhardt 2001.

12 Tool: TIMELINE Timeline lists key events of the conflict in chronological order - campaigning, mobilization, armed collisions, truce, exile, peace initiatives, etc. Conflict timeline reflects the timing and duration of events. Since each side can have a subjective perception of events, this tool is particularly well suited for establishing the differences between the conflicting parties views. For example, if there are disagreements among the stakeholders, individual timelines can be drawn for each side. During this process it is important to establish an attitude of respect for different views. Application Together with the participants, determine an appropriate time (day, month, year) to begin formulating a timeline. Stakeholders record the most important events along the axis of time. Discuss with stakeholders the causes of individual events and important consequences. Table 1: Timeline Events from the perspective of side «А» Events from the perspective of side «B» Side «B» conducted an illegal campaign January 2009 Side «А» prevented election campaign of side «B» Side «B» assaulted independent observers February 2009 Side «А» provoked the conflict Side «B» bribed people to participate in a demonstration March 2009 Side «А» blockaded the headquarters of side «B» Side «B» involved the criminal sector to neutralize side «А» April 2009 Side «А» attacked supporters of side «B» Side «B» burnt ships carrying citizens of other islands that supported side «А» May 2009 Side «А» used weapons against side «B» Law enforcement bodies intervened and arrested the leaders of side «B» June 2009 Corrupt officials fell for the manipulations of side «А» International NGOs intervened and organized negotiations between the parties July 2009 Side «B» admitted its wrongdoing and agreed to compromise Conflict is dispelled August 2009 Conflict is dispelled Source: Leonhardt Table by: A. Temirkulov

13 WHERE? Tool: CONFLICT ARENA The tool Conflict arena helps in carrying out territorial analysis of the conflict. In order to receive a visual image of the conflict arena, politically important borders, influential areas, natural resources, important infrastructure, communications, etc. are placed on the map. The purpose of this is to clarify which party controls what territories, and which regions, borders, waterways, etc. are the critical factors in the conflict. The conflict arena can be applied both to local and higher levels. This tool can also be used to create two separate maps with participation of conflicting parties. Further, these maps can be compared and analyzed. Application Make a map of the conflict area including the greatest number of details necessary for the analysis. Create a legend explaining the notations used on the map. Show territories where conflicting parties, their alliances, and sources of influence are concentrated. Identify zones with high levels of violence. Identify disputed objects. Discuss the meaning of territorial factors to this day and in the future. Figure 2: Conflict arena. Source: Leonhardt Map by: Passon and Temirkulov 2004.

14 Step 2: Stakeholder analysis (Who?) The Stakeholder analysis explains interests, positions, strengths and relations between the groups involved in the conflict. In conflict analysis, the term «conflict stakeholders» is used to designate all groups that have any relation to the conflict - direct and indirect. These groups are also the most important participants in the peace process, even if at this time they are not interested in a peaceful resolution of the conflict. This analysis helps to understand relations and coalitions between conflict participants. Stakeholders can be divided into three categories: a) Primary stakeholders, or «conflicting parties», are directly clashing groups and their active supporters (for example, political or armed). b) Secondary stakeholders play the role of intermediaries and possess various means to influence the course of the conflict (for example, government organizations, NGOs, political parties, or religious dignitaries). c) External stakeholders are not directly involved in the conflict, but have specific interests (for example, central government, donors, transnational companies, and neighboring states). External stakeholders often possess influence and resources necessary for successful handling of the conflict, and should, therefore, be engaged in the process of conflict resolution. Some approaches distinguish stakeholders according to the level on which they are active (grassroots, middle, and upper levels). In particular, the theory of conflict management gives high importance to the middle-level leaders, as they can play a crucial role, using their connections with the central and local levels. In any case, it is important to consider relations between stakeholders at various levels. Special attention should be given to impediments, certain groups that are interested in maintaining a negative status quo (for example: arms dealers). They can present an obstacle to peace initiatives. Key questions Who plays what role in the conflict? What are the positions, interests, and demands of the conflicting parties? Who has a stake in the conflict and who does not? Do they have allies? Who influences whom? Who maintains relations with both conflicting parties? What possibilities for continuation or resolution of the conflict do the stakeholders possess? Tools Bulb of conflict stakeholders, Pyramid of conflict stakeholders, Graphic scheme of conflict stakeholders.

15 WHO? Tool: BULB OF CONFLICT STAKEHOLDERS The bulb of conflict stakeholders consists of concentric circles showing the demands, interests, goals and positions of the conflicting parties. The use of this approach is based on the experience that in peaceful times there is a high degree of mutual trust, and people tend to act on the basis of their actual requirements. In a conflict situation the level of trust is decreasing, and, in their minds, people tend to place more abstract, collective interests in the centre of activity. If the conflict expands, people then go further and further to certain positions or requirements that are rooted in the dynamics of the conflict and have little to do with their actual needs. Application Draw an "onion" with three layers: the core should contain demands (what is necessary for us), the first ring - interests (what we really want), and the external ring - positions (what we claim to want). Identify demands, interests, and positions of the most important parties involved in the conflict. Conflicting parties can be represented on the right and left halves of the model or two separate models can be used. Discuss the degree to which each party really wishes to advance their demands, interests, and positions. Determine solutions for the conflict based on the isolated requirements and well-understood interests. Figure 3: Bulb of conflict stakeholders POSITIONS what we claim to want INTERESTS what we really want DEMANDS what is necessary for us Sources: Leonhardt Figure by: A. Temirkulov

16 Tool: PYRAMID OF CONFLICT STAKEHOLDERS The pyramid of conflict stakeholders is especially well adapted for the analysis of various levels of the conflict. In addition, it helps to identify key participants who must be influenced. The pyramid of stakeholders considers distinctions between the upper, middle, and grassroots levels of the conflict. Experience of conflict management in many countries has shown that progress should be reached at all three levels. Leading experts in conflict study give the greatest significance to the middle level, because it is connected with both upper and grassroots levels. To conduct pyramid analysis, important stakeholders on each level should be identified. It is also possible to illustrate relations between participants of one level, and participants of various levels. Moreover, it can be useful to create an individual pyramid for each party and to compare them with each other. At the same time, it is always important to find a key figure that can possibly influence other important participants. Application Draw a pyramid, and label three levels Introduce important organizations, institutions, and people in front of each level Identify levels on which the conflict takes place Discuss relations between the different levels Figure 4: Stakeholder s pyramid. Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 1 - Upper level (central military figures, political and religious leaders, government officials, representatives of the international organizations, etc.) Level 2 - Middle level (respected persons of the society, leaders of ethnic or religious organizations, trade unions, NGOs, etc.) Level 3 - Grassroots level (local leaders, elders, representatives of women s and youth groups, refugees, peace advocates, etc.) Sources: Leonhardt 2001, Fisher et al Figure by: A.Temirkulov

17 Tool: MAPPING OF CONFLICT STAKEHOLDERS The graphic scheme of conflict stakeholders is a tool to create a graphic rendering of conflict participants and their mutual relations. It helps the observer identify the disputing parties, their supporters, and potential partners for cooperation. Two or more maps can be created with participation of various conflicting parties. These maps must be compared and analyzed. Application Identify the important participants of the conflict, representing them in circles of various sizes. The size of a circle depends on the level of influence of each participant. Indicate relations between participants (conflicting, cooperative, etc.) by means of lines, arrows, curves, etc. Figure 5: Mapping of conflict stakeholders. Political party «XYZ» NGO Crime Side «B» Side «A» Government Drug lords OSCE Conflict Support Pressure Mediation Sources: Leonhardt 2001, Fisheretal. 2000, Ropers/Baechler Figure by: A.Temirkulov

18 Step 3: Causes analysis (Why?) The Causes analysis answers the question: What are the sources of the conflict? It studies the long-term structural factors that have created conflict potential. The conflict potential is a combination of factors resulting in tension between two or more parties. These factors can be classified into two complementary types: material causes (resources, social status), and non-material causes (ideology, nationalism, realization of differences). The world experience shows that if there is a strongly institutionalized legal field, in the frameworks of which different conflicts can be resolved, then a transition to open violence is improbable. The threat of open violent conflict arises in the presence of material and non-material causes (i.e. there is a conflict of interests and ideas between two parties), and in the absence of a strongly institutionalized legal field. Thus, conflict potential is a combination of material and non-material causes as well as administrative factors. Each of these three components has its own causal chain. These reasons can belong to different levels. For example, the conflict between two various ethnic and religious groups Makumbu and Gagarimba can conceal a conflict of ideas (non-material causes), a conflict of interests (material causes), and administrative causes of various levels: 1) Material causes of the conflict of interests: a. Unauthorized capture of farmland; a reason for this can, in turn, be: i. Shortage of land as a result of: 1. Absence of sources of income for peasants, except for agriculture; 2. Uncontrolled demographic growth explained by: a. Non-existence of family planning; b. Unwillingness to migrate to other areas of the country, which can be motivated by regionalism or nepotism. 2) Non-material causes of the conflict of ideas: a. Xenophobia; i. A mutual exception of groups (ignorance/misconceptions about each other). 3) Reasons for a weakly institutionalized legal field (administrative factors): a. Corruption; i. Illegal sale of farmland by workers of the local government; ii. Concealment of crimes by workers of law enforcement bodies; iii. Unfair judicial system Additionally, it is necessary to determine the conflict trigger of the conflict. A conflict trigger is a single key action, event, or their anticipation that can spark conflict escalation. For example, a household fight, an article in the newspaper, a leader s statement, etc. It is very important to underline that each conflict is unique, and demands individual analysis and identification of particularities in its causes. The portrayals of conflict causes by the conflicting parties need to be studied, compared, and analyzed. It will help to draw objective conclusions on the real causes of the conflict. While analyzing conflict causes, it is necessary to remember that over time, conflicts are subject to changes. Intolerance, violence, revenge, and need for self-defense grow the longer the conflict lasts. Even if there is a desire to establish peace, factors, such as the developed system, economic interests, and «markets of violence» 1, may impede a peace settlement. 1 The «markets of violence» is a concept developed by George Elwert in It presumes that different economic interests are formed around the conflict and they prevent its peaceful resolution.

19 Key questions Why did this conflict begin? What is the cause of this conflict? The tool Conflict volcano. WHY? Tool: CONFLICT VOLCANO This tool helps to identify the causes of a conflict. A focal problem (volcano) is the conflict potential, rather than a single cause of the conflict or its consequences. It is very important to correctly determine the focal problem, as a wrong determination will inevitably lead to wrong conclusions and results, and consequently, to an incorrectly constructed conflict preventing strategy. Similarly to the other tools, it is useful to create a separate Conflict volcano for each conflicting party. Then, the results need to be compared and analyzed. Following this step, an independent Conflict volcano can be created, taking into account previous results and comparative analysis. This volcano will provide the foundation for developing a conflict preventing strategy. Application Determine conflict potential as the "volcano", i.e. material, non-material and administrative causes. For each of the three components of conflict potential, find their direct factors, designate them under the "volcano", and draw an arrow connecting a cause with an effect. In the following stage, determine secondary causes that led to the primary causes, and so on until the problem is penetrated deep enough to its root causes. Then, place the «conflict trigger» on the "volcano s" crater. The result is a representation in the form of a volcano.

20 Figure 6: Conflict volcano. Escalation Trigger Material causes Administrative causes Non-material causes Illegal seizure of farmland Illegal distribution of farmland by workers of local government Concealment of crimes by workers of Ministry of Internal Affairs Xenophobia Mutual exclusion of groups Lack of farmland Extensive agriculture Absence of alternative economic activity Note: a similar tool - a Problem tree, is described in a number of methodological guidebooks including handbooks studying conflict. However, the proposed method and its application do not correspond to the specific problems of this area. As a consequence, A. Temirkulov adapted the tool Problem tree and has derived the Conflict volcano, which is better suited for the study of conflicts. Figure by: A. Temirkulov

21 Step 4: Determination of indicators Once the conflict causes become known, it is necessary to determine indicators of possible changes of conflict potential. In a way, indicators will become the conflict s pulse. Therefore, observers will be able to determine the direction in which a situation is likely to develop long before escalation, and can take necessary measures in advance. Moreover, indicators are the basis for developing a conflict preventing strategy. One can claim that indicators should serve as a guiding star in conflict prevention. Key questions What can serve as an indicator of conflict potential? Where can one obtain information about these indicators? Tool Matrix of indicators Tool: MATRIX OF INDICATORS Correctly identified causes of the conflict are a good basis for discerning indicators. Indicators can be determined for each cause of conflict potential, obtained in step 3, the Conflict volcano. Indicators are more acute and demonstrative if its cause is close to the conflict volcano. Note that indicators should not be focused on the consequences of conflict potential, but on the original causes of the conflict. Also, it makes sense to identify indicators of the conflict trigger that will indicate a pre-escalation conflict situation. It is of high importance that indicators are based on quantifiable data. Application Create a matrix with four columns; In the first column specify the levels of causes: 1 - level of the original, structural causes, 2 - level of direct causes, 3 conflict trigger(s); In the second column list all those causes deduced in step 3, the Conflict volcano, according to their levels; Determine the indicator (s) for each cause and enter them in the third column; Identify the source(s) of each indicator and enter them in the fourth column.

22 Table 2. Matrix of indicators Causes and possible conflict triggers 1 Absence of alternative economic activities Extensive agriculture Mutual exclusion of groups Indicators Number of enterprises in the alternative sector Amount of illegally-seized farmland (in hectares) Number of inter-ethnic marriages Number of joint projects and cultural events 2 Lack of farmland Correlation between the quantity of available land and population requirements Xenophobia Number of nationalistic public statements and claims, and other incidents exhibiting xenophobia Illegal distribution of Number of reported incidents lands by the workers of local government Concealment of Number of reported incidents crimes by the workers of the Ministry of internal affairs 3 Conflict trigger 1) Minor collisions between representatives of two parties 2) Incidents of collective action and mass mobilizations Sources National Statistical Committee Agencies of local government, National Registry, Ministry of Internal Affairs National Statistical Committee, agencies of local government Agencies of local government National Statistical Committee, agencies of local government Mass media Law enforcement agencies, advocacy organizations, NGOs, etc. Overseeing bodies, advocacy organizations, NGOs, etc. Statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Mass media, statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs

23 Step 5: Determination of tendencies The next task is to assess the present status of the conflict and possible courses of its development. This is done to further monitor the conflict and to gain a clear view of where changes in indicators will lead. One of the objectives of this step is to determine the most favorable scenario for the situation. This outcome will become the goal of the conflict preventing strategy. Key questions In what direction is the conflict developing at present? What is the current state of affairs? What are the possible scenarios of situation development? Tools Conflict scenarios Tool: CONFLICT SCENARIO Conflict scenario predicts the future based on the matrix of indicators. This tool helps to see how the situation will develop if the indicators change. Three variants of situation development can be created: worst-case, middle ground (status quo), and best-case. Thus, we will have an approximate idea of what is expecting us in case of deteriorating indicators, and what needs to be changed to achieve a more favorable scenario. Application Create a matrix with four columns; In the first column specify the levels of indicators: 1 - level of indicators from the original, structural causes, 2 - level of indicators from direct causes, 3 - level of indicators from conflict triggers; In the second enter the indicators acquired from the previous tool, Matrix of indicators, according to their category; In the third column list the anticipated changes of these indicators; In the fourth column entitled "Scenario" describe possible situation development in a given set of indicators; Create three separate tables for the possible scenarios of conflict development: o (a) best-case scenario (description of most favorable outcome); o (b) middle ground scenario or status quo scenario (description of continuous maintenance of current tendencies); and o (c) the worst-case scenario (description of the worst outcome). These three scenarios are ideal types; in reality, they can represent a symbiosis of different indicators, however, tendencies will not change.

24 Table 3. Conflict scenario Worst-case scenario Indicator Indicator change Scenario 1 Number of enterprises in the alternative sector Decreases Structural causes of the conflict changed for the worse. Amount of illegally-seized Increases farmland (in hectares) Number of inter-ethnic marriages Decreasing or absent Number of joint projects and Decreasing or absent cultural events 2 Correlation between the quantity of available farmland and population requirements Decreases Tension between the two opposing sides is increasing. Conflict potential is growing. Number of nationalistic public Increases statements and claims, and other incidents exhibiting xenophobia Number of recorded incidents of corruption within the local government and the Ministry of Internal Affairs Increases 3 1) Minor collisions between representatives of two parties 2) Incidents of collective action and mass mobilization The number increases The number increases A sudden activation of the conflict trigger can lead to conflict escalation. Status quo Indicator Indicator change Scenario 1 Number of enterprises in the alternative sector Remains unchanged Structural causes of the conflict are unchanged. Amount of illegally-seized Remains unchanged farmland (in hectares) Number of inter-ethnic marriages Remains unchanged Number of joint projects and Remains unchanged cultural events 2 Correlation between the quantity of available farmland and population requirements Remains unchanged Number of nationalistic public statements and claims, and other incidents exhibiting xenophobia Number of recorded incidents of corruption within the local government and the Ministry of Internal Affairs 3 1) Minor collisions between representatives of two parties 2) Incidents of collective action and mass mobilization Remains unchanged Remains unchanged Remains unchanged Remains unchanged Tension between two opposing sides remains the same. Conflict potential is neither decreasing, nor increasing. Conflict triggers are activated from time to time, but do not lead to escalation. Conflict does not transgress into violence. Best-case scenario Indicator Indicator change Scenario 1 Number of enterprises in the alternative sector Increases Structural causes of the conflict change for the better. Amount of illegally-seized land (in Decreases hectares) Number of inter-ethnic marriages Increases Number of joint projects and Increases cultural events 2 Correlation between the quantity of available farmland and population requirement Increases Tension between two opposing sides decreases. Conflict potential is losing its former force. Number of nationalistic public Decreases statements and claims, and other incidents exhibiting xenophobia Number of recorded incidents of Decreases corruption within the local government and the Ministry of Internal Affairs 3 1) Minor collisions between representatives of two parties The number decreases Conflict trigger rarely activates, and cannot lead to escalation. 2) Incidents of collective action and mass mobilization The number decreases

25 Step 6: Determination of purposes and tasks Upon determination of possible scenarios, we can start formulating specific purposes and tasks of the conflict preventing strategy. Strategy objectives are determined based on results from step 5, the Conflict scenario tool. A conflict preventing strategy should strive to achieve the best-case scenario in practice. After identification of strategic purposes, it is necessary to establish tasks that need to be realized. Moreover, it is very important to determine potential executors for each task. Key questions: What are the necessary steps for lowering conflict potential? What specific purposes must be achieved? How to reach set goals? Who can contribute to the process? Tool Matrix of purposes and tasks Tool: MATRIX OF PURPOSES AND TASKS Matrix of purposes and goals is developed based on the «best-case scenario» obtained in step 5. Indicators of the best-case scenario are the strategic purposes to be achieved. It is precisely these indicators that are necessary to be accomplished in order to lower conflict potential. Therefore, a conflict preventing strategy should pursue this outcome. Tasks and potential executors need to be identified for each strategic purpose. Tasks are sets of actions required for achievement of set purposes. For each task, it is necessary to determine potential executors who could realize it, such as government, donor organization, NGOs, etc. However, one must pay attention when identifying participants, as some organizations lack resources or legal powers to resolve a problem. Results received in the course of step 2 «Stakeholders analysis» should be employed at this stage. Application: Create a matrix with four columns; In the first column specify the levels of causes: 1 - level of original, structural causes, 2 - level of direct causes, 3 conflict trigger(s); In the second column, Purposes, write out indicator changes necessary for the achievement of the best-case scenario ; Determine tasks from each purpose, and record them in a corresponding column; Identify potential executor(s) for each task, and list them in the "Executors" column.

26 Table 4. Matrix of purposes and tasks Purposes Tasks Executors 1 The number of enterprises in the alternative sector is increasing The amount of illegally-seized farmland is decreasing The number of inter-ethnic marriages is increasing The number of joint projects and cultural events is increasing 2 The correlation between the quantity of available farmland and population requirements is increasing The number of nationalistic public statements and claims, and other incidents exhibiting xenophobia is decreasing The number of recorded incidents of corruption within the local government and Ministry of Internal Affairs is decreasing 3 Number of minor collisions between representatives of two parties is decreasing Number of incidents of collective action and mass mobilization is decreasing 1) Create conditions for the introduction and development of business 2) Introduce and develop new, alternative types of economic activity Enhance accountability for the illegal seizure of farmland on the island of Karishma Implement a cultural program for the promotion of inter-ethnic marriages Realization of various inter-group educational and cultural projects Introduce objective, transparent mechanisms for distribution of farmland (contest, auction, control of local deputies). Introduce a resettlement program from the island of Karishma to Pork Shoulder Increase state control over the application and enforcement of a sentence for inciting ethnic and religious hatred Promote the culture of tolerance Strengthen government and civil control over local government and Ministry of Internal Affairs Strengthen preventive measures Central government, parliament, local government Ministry of economics, local government, donor organizations, private sector, NGOs, etc. Parliament, central government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, local government Ministry of education, Ministry of culture, NGOs Ministry of education, Ministry of culture, NGOs, ethnic and religious organizations, etc. Central government, parliament, local government Parliament, central government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, courts, Main Administration of Punishment Execution Ministry of education, Ministry of culture, NGOs, ethnic and religious organizations, etc. Central government, NGOs Local government, Ministry of Internal Affairs

27 Step 7: Review of results according to the "do not harm" principle Since conflict is a very sensitive issue, even the most carefully thought-out strategies can conceal unexpected adverse consequences, and can, thus, exacerbate the conflict potential. Therefore it is important that experts understand and consider the possible side effects of their work. We must avoid any errors during the analysis process. Purposes must be precisely determined and possible risks need to be identified for each task. Step 7 is a review of the results of the analysis. Key questions: Αre the "purposes" correctly defined? What are the risks that lie in realization of the "tasks"? Tools Pyramid of stability, Matrix of risks Tool: PYRAMID OF STABILITY The Pyramid of stability tool is intended to check the obtained results. It analyzes the correctness of purposes that were established in the previous step. To achieve this, we need to conduct a reverse analysis, that is, we should analyze possible consequences of "Purposes" without considering our previous analysis. Application: Create a note card for each purpose established in step 6; Arrange the note cards in logical sequence, indicating relations between them; If the note cards end up in a logical sequence which ends with the Pyramid of stability (the derivative of the Conflict volcano) then we can assume that the analysis of purposes held true.

28 Figure 7: Pyramid of stability. Resolution of conflict of interests Strongly institutionaliz ed legal field Resolution of conflict of ideas The amount of illegally seized farmland is reduced The number of recorded incidents of corruption decreases The number of nationalistic public statements and claims, and other incidents exhibiting xenophobia decrease The correlation between the quantity of available farmland and population requirement increases The number of joint projects and cultural events increases The number of inter-ethnic marriages increases The number of enterprises in the alternative sector increases Figure by: A. Temirkulov

29 Tool: MATRIX OF RISKS The Matrix of risks subjects the established "Tasks" to analysis, and determines the risks concealed in each task. Application: Create a matrix with three columns; In the first column specify the levels of causes: 1 - level of original, structural causes, 2 - level of direct causes, 3 - level of conflict triggers; In the second enter the "Tasks" obtained in step 6, Determination of purposes and tasks; Then, identify possible risks concealed in each task and list them in the third column. Table 5: Matrix of risks Tasks 1 Create conditions for the introduction and development of business Introduce and develop new, alternative types of economic activity Enhance accountability for the illegal seizure of farmland on the island of Karishma Implement a cultural program for the promotion of inter-ethnic marriages Realization of various inter-group educational and cultural projects 2 Introduce a resettlement program from the island of Karishma to Pork Shoulder Risks There is a risk of discrimination. It is necessary to create equal opportunities for both opposing groups. There is a risk of discrimination. Representatives of both opposing groups should be involved in the development of the new alternative sector. There is a risk of discrimination. Liability should be borne equally by the representatives of the two opposing groups. Minor household conflicts can escalate into a conflict between two opposing groups. Conflict of interests may arise that could lead to confrontation between the two opposing groups. The resettlement program should involve both opposing groups. There is a possibility that the conflict will be exported. Increase state control over the application and enforcement of a sentence for inciting ethnic and religious hatred Strengthen government and civil control over local government and Ministry of Internal Affairs There is a risk of discrimination. Liability should be borne equally by the representatives of the two opposing groups. Minimal risks 3 Strengthen preventive measures There is a risk of discrimination. Liability should be borne equally by the representatives of the two opposing groups.

30 Conclusion A conflict preventing strategy should be first and foremost focused on the root causes for the appearance of conflict potential, rather than on its consequences (escalation, tensions, etc.). Analysis should be comprehensive, encompassing all causes, factors, and stakeholders. This way, we will have an accurate and clear picture of the conflict. A correctly constructed representation of the conflict allows one to better understand the structure of a given problem, and to develop a more effective, multidimensional conflict preventing strategy. The entire range of potential executors should be developed, with clearly defined purposes and tasks. By means of the methods described above, recommendations should follow from the logically constructed system of analysis, and not from the spatial subjective representations of the expert. The development of recommendations should not be based only on the results attained from steps 3-6, but also on the outcomes of other tools: it is necessary to consider the time frameworks (phases of conflict, timeline), the territorial arrangements of the conflict (conflict arena), and the description of conflict stakeholders (the bulb, pyramid, and graphic scheme of conflict stakeholders). When devising recommendations for individual executors, it is very important to consider the results obtained by means of these tools. Table Steps of analysis and tools depicts analysis stages and tools corresponding to each stage. Table 6. Steps of analysis and tools Step of analysis Tool 1 2 Conflict profile (What? Where? When?) 1. Conflict description 2. Conflict arena 3. Phases of conflict 4. Timeline Stakeholder analysis (Who?) 1. Bulb of conflict stakeholders 2. Pyramid of conflict stakeholders 3. Graphic scheme of conflict stakeholders 3 Causes analysis (Why?) 1. Conflict volcano 4 Determination of indicators 1. Matrix of indicators 5 Determination of tendencies 1. Conflict scenario 6 Determination of purposes and tasks 1. Matrix of purposes and tasks 7 Review of results according to the «do not harm» principle 1. Pyramid of stability 2. Matrix of risks Based on the results, one can proceed directly to recommendations, which can be developed separately for each organization. The organization can initiate a project or undertake other necessary actions aimed at execution of "Tasks" based on these recommendations. On the other hand, one can develop a general strategy to decrease conflict potential, which each organization can employ to determine its goals and tasks.

31 Bibliography Hoffman, Mark, Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment Methodology, Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management, <http: // Leonhard, Manuela, Conflict analysis for project planning and management, GTZ, Nyheim, David, Leonhardt, Manuela, and Gaigals, Cynthia, Development in Conflict: A Seven Step Tool for Planners, FEWER, International Alert, Saferworld, Passon, Daniel and Temirkulov, Azamat, Analysis of Peace and Conflict Potential in Batken Oblast, Kyrgyzstan, ARC GTZ, Berlin, Strelein, Christian, Handbook: Conflict analysis, GTZ. Strelein, Christian, Handbook: Do no harm, GTZ. Strelein, Christian, Handbook: Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment - PCIA, GTZ. Young, Eoin and Quinn, Lisa, Writing Effective Public Policy Paper, OSI/LGI, Budapest, Fisher, Simon et al., 2000: Working with Conflict. Skills and Strategies for Action. London: Zed Books.

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