CCSP CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT BACKGROUNDER AND RECOMMENDED READING. WORKSHOP on THE CLIMATE CHANGE-SECURITY NEXUS:

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1 CCSP CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT WORKSHOP on THE CLIMATE CHANGE-SECURITY NEXUS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CANADIAN DEFENCE POLICY BACKGROUNDER AND RECOMMENDED READING Margaret Purdy Leanne Smythe JANUARY 2010 SECURITY AND DEFENCE FORUM PROGRAM LIU INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL ISSUES

2 BACKGROUNDER ~ 1 THE CLIMATE CHANGE-SECURITY NEXUS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CANADIAN DEFENCE POLICY AND OPERATIONS BACKGROUNDER AND RECOMMENDED READING The potential security implications of climate change have received less attention in Canada than in many other countries. A January 28-29, 2010 workshop in Ottawa organized by a research team at the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia will help fill this gap by: exposing participants to some of the world s leading researchers and authors on climate change from both the science and security perspectives, examining the experiences of other countries in addressing this issue, providing a by-invitation forum where officials from a dozen federal government departments and agencies can learn about and discuss the possible security-related impacts of climate change in and on Canada over the next 20 years, including representatives from Canadian universities, think tanks and non-governmental organizations, as well as from foreign diplomatic missions. The specific goal of the workshop is to examine the implications of a changing climate on Canadian defence policy and operations over the next two decades. To this end, the event will include several speakers with military backgrounds and/or expertise, as well a session devoted to this topic. The workshop organizers recognize, however, that climate change is a broad and complex issue requiring an integrated, horizontal response on the part of Canadian organizations with public safety, national security, and international security responsibilities and accountabilities. For this reason, most of the workshop sessions will be of more general in scope focusing on the latest scientific projections and their implications for global, regional and national-level security. This document sets out some the key issues to be explored in each of the workshop sessions, as well as suggestions for pre- or post-workshop reading, viewing and listening. Following the workshop, the UBC team will provide all participants with a report and analysis based the presentations and discussions over the 1½-day event. Information on the UBC research project including a research guide, presentations and articles by team members, and links to relevant web sites can be found at under Research Projects.

3 BACKGROUNDER ~ 2 SESSION 2: GLOBAL AND CANADIAN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS This session will focus on the most recent scientific projections with respect to temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level and extreme weather particularly those projections which have implications for security at the community, regional, national or international levels. Suggested Readings Fourth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), This report is the current go-to document for the scientific consensus on climate change. Scientific academies and societies around the world including the Royal Society of Canada endorsed its conclusions. A summary for policy makers can be found at On the eve of the December 2009 climate change meetings in Copenhagen, the release of exchanges among scientists based in the United Kingdom generated controversy about the IPCC findings. IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri defended the fairness, comprehensiveness and objectivity of IPCC work in his speech to the conference. For an analysis of the controversy, see In a critical development insofar as security is concerned, scientists are now concluding that the IPCC even in the worst-case emission scenarios in its 2007 report underestimated many aspects of climate change. The next IPCC assessment is due in 2014, and will include a special report on mitigating the risks of extreme events and disasters. From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007, Natural Resources Canada, This report is a significant national resource, organized by Natural Resources Canada and drawing upon the expert knowledge of hundreds of Canadian scientists. Through a primarily regional approach, the report discusses current and future risks and opportunities that climate change presents to Canada. The report focuses on the need to adapt, that is, to make adjustments in Canadian decisions, activities and thinking in order to moderate harm or take advantage of new opportunities. The report concludes that integrating climate change into existing planning processes, using risk management methods, offers an effective approach to adaptation. Key chapters (which may be accessed separately) are Synthesis, Chapter 1 Introduction, and Chapter 9 Canada in an International Context this last examining implications for Canada of climate change impacts and adaptation elsewhere in the world. Dr. Donald S. Lemmen, one of the report s editors, will speak in Session 2. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, based in Arlington, Virginia, is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to providing credible information, straight answers and innovative solutions to address climate change. The

4 BACKGROUNDER ~ 3 Center s web site includes many reports relating directly to the themes of the January workshop. Dr. Jay Gulledge, Senior Scientist and Manager for Science and Impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, will speak in Session 2. The following two documents will form the foundation of Dr. Gulledge s presentation: Key Scientific Developments Since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Science Brief 2, June th-Assessment.pdf Dr. Gulledge also co-authored The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change see Session 3 below. SESSION 3: GLOBAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS This session will explore how climate change is expected to affect stability and security at the global level. While climate change may not be the sole trigger for future international security crises, the phenomenon may worsen already dire situations in the world s most vulnerable areas. Suggested Readings/Viewings Several think tanks and research institutes in the United States, Europe, Asia and Australia released major reports in on the climate change-national security nexus. Two of the most-cited are: Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action, Council on Foreign Relations, November This report concludes that climate change presents a serious threat to the security and prosperity of the United States and other countries. It proposes a portfolio of policy options to reduce the vulnerability of US and other nations to the predictable effects of climate change. The report also suggests bureaucratic reforms that would increase the likelihood that the US government will formulate effective domestic and foreign policy in this increasingly important area. Dr. Joshua W. Busby, the report s author, will speak in Session 3. The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Center for a New American Security (CNAS), November This joint CSIS-CNAS report was the culmination of a project involving US leaders in the fields of climate science, foreign policy, national security, political science, oceanography and history. Employing the best-available evidence and climate models, the group

5 BACKGROUNDER ~ 4 imagined three future worlds that fall within the range of scientific plausibility and three corresponding national security futures for the US. Dr. Jay Gulledge, a Senior Fellow at the CNAS and one of the report s authors, will speak in Session 2. Dr. Gulledge and his co-authors discuss the report in a video clip found at: The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is a Canada-based, notfor-profit, research institute that promotes change towards sustainable development. The ISSD publishes regularly on the security-related impacts of climate change. Among recent papers on this topic are the following -- all posted to the IISD web site : Battling the Elements: the security threat of climate change (Oli Brown and Alec Crawford), December 2009 A Recurring Anarchy? The emergence of climate change as a threat to international peace and security (Oli Brown and Robert McLeman), October 2009 Climate Change and Security in Africa (Oli Brown and Alec Crawford), March 2009 Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East (Oli Brown and Alec Crawford), Richard Matthew, a Senior Fellow with the ISSD, will speak in Session 3. Dr. Matthew discusses Climate Change and Peace in the video clip found at: A selected list of Dr. Matthew s publications can be found at SESSION 4: SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES This session will consider how individual nations such as Canada could and should respond to the potential security implications of climate change. Starting with its success in organizing the first-ever climate security debate in the United Nations Security Council In 2007, the United Kingdom has been among the most progressive nations with respect to tackling the climate change-security issue. The topic appears regularly in speeches by Ministers and senior public servants and in key policy documents. For example, the 2008 United Kingdom National Security Strategy described climate change as potentially the greatest challenge to global stability and security, and therefore to national security. Frances Wood, Head of the Climate Security, Climate Change and Energy Group in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London, will speak in Session 4. Margaret Purdy, co-director of the climate change-security research project at the University of British Columbia, will also speak in Session 4. Information about the UBC project, including

6 BACKGROUNDER ~ 5 several presentations and papers by Margaret Purdy on the potential implications of a changing climate for Canada s public safety, national security and international security interests, can be found at under Research Projects. SESSION 5: ARCTIC SECURITY CHALLENGES AND ISSUES In Northern and Arctic Canada, increased navigability of Arctic waters, expansion of land-based transportation networks, and access to new oil and gas sources may generate challenges and tensions on many fronts. Dr. Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary, one of Canada s foremost experts on Arctic matters, will provide a keynote address in Session 5. Canada must be prepared to deal with challenges to its Arctic sovereignty and security now, in a concise and effective manner. To do so later, or to do so now in some half measure, will ensure that Canadian Arctic sovereignty and security is merely a theory, and never a reality. That was Dr. Huebert s conclusion in a 2008 paper entitled Canadian Arctic Security and Canadian Arctic Sovereignty and Security in a Transforming Circumpolar World, published by the Canadian International Council. SESSION 7: CLIMATE CHANGE: A GREAT YET MISUNDERSTOOD CHALLENGE Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, United States Navy (Retired) will provide a keynote address on the security implications of climate change. Admiral Gunn is President of the American Security Project (ASP), a non-profit, bipartisan, public policy research and education initiative focusing on national security and foreign policy issues. In 2008, the ASP launched Secure American Future, a comprehensive and long-term initiative designed to analyze and communicate the threats posed by a changing climate. In November 2009, as part of this initiative, the ASP launched a paid advertising campaign on the national security implications of climate change. Find a link to the ASP radio advertisement at: In October 2009, Admiral Gunn published an article entitled Climate change could be the next great military threat in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. SESSION 8: IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE ORGANIZATIONS AND FORCES This session will provide an opportunity to reflect on the discussions and presentations of the workshop, and to extrapolate issues and challenges of specific relevance to defence policy makers and military forces. Suggested Readings National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, a 2007 report compiled by 11 retired United States 3- and 4-star flag and general officers, attracted international

7 BACKGROUNDER ~ 6 attention. The CNA Corporation, a non-profit research organization, assembled the Military Advisory Board and issued its report, which concluded that climate change could affect Americans at home, impact US military operations, and heighten global tensions. The report can be found at: The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence has issued a Climate Change Strategy, setting out how the MoD will adapt its defence planning to identify the risks to global security presented by the complex geopolitical interactions resulting from a changing climate as well as how the MoD will reduce its own emissions. The Climate Change Strategy can be found on the MoD web site: Climate Change and the Military: First Statement of the Military Advisory Council, October The Military Advisory Council is an international initiative led by the Institute for Environmental Security in The Hague and 10 other think tanks in Europe, Asia and North America. Dr. Kent Butts of the United States Army War College will speak in Session 8. In February 2009, Dr. Butts discussed how the US military is reacting to climate change as part of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars distinguished speaker series. At a US House of Representatives hearing in 2008, Dr. Butts provided testimony on the concerns of military planners about climate change, and on how the military and intelligence communities should plan for various climate change scenarios. Major General Stuart Beare, Chief of Force Development with the Canadian Forces, will also speak in Session 8. A recent publication from General Beare s organization is entitled The Future Security Environment : Part 1: Current and Emerging Trends. Pages of this document analyse the potential long-term impacts of environmental and resource trends, including climate change, on the Canadian Forces. Prepared by Margaret Purdy and Leanne Smythe UBC Climate Change-Security Project January 16, 2010

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