ALBANIA AND NATO WHY WE DO NEED NATO?

Transcription

1 ALBANIA AND NATO WHY WE DO NEED NATO? Tirana 8

2 This study was made possible through the financial support of the Public Affairs Section American Embassy in Tirana. Analyses and Writing Maklen Misha Data Processing Dr. Guven Guneren Editor Dr. Albert Rakipi Research and Data Entry Dori Hyseni, Marsida Gjocaj, Alba Çela Translation Dori Hyseni Copyright Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS) Tirana 8 ALBANIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (AIIS) Rr. Dëshmorët e 4 Shkurtit, Nr. 7/1 Tirana., Albania Tel Fax aiis@aiis-albania.org Website: 2

3 Acknowledgments The Albanian Institute for International Studies is grateful to the American Embassy, whose support in the implementation of this survey is gratefully acknowledged. 3

4 INTRODUCTION Few issues interest the Albanians more than their country s Euro-Atlantic integration. However, while accession to the EU must for the moment, remains a distant dream, in recent months expectations have been raised that Albania might receive an invitation to join NATO in the Summit of Bucharest due in April 8. Several ministers have made declarations to that effect and the media has been quite active in discussing the possibility, too. If this indeed proves to be the case, it would be hard to explain the sense of accomplishment Albanians would feel at the realization of their dream. However, although the common belief is that the majority of the Albanians would support the integration of their country into NATO, no proper survey was conducted to date. Furthermore, while one can get a feeling of the existing support, it is difficult to ascertain the level of information the Albanians posses on NATO and their country s membership process. Several surveys conducted by the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS) on the perceptions and realities of the Albanians towards the European Union and the European integration process revealed overwhelming support for Albania s EU membership, but at the same time serious lack of understanding on the EU, on the scope of the process, its costs and potential benefits. Because of the proximity of the Summit of Bucharest and the expectations that prevail in Albania concerning its possible invitation to join NATO in July 7, AIIS decided to conduct a survey with four elite groups of the Albanian society. These groups are involved in the integration process more actively and directly than the ordinary Albanians are. The rationale behind the choice of target groups was based on the belief that these groups because of their position in society and their ability to influence decision-making. Therefore, it is interesting to ascertain the level of expertise that they possess on the NATO integration process. Because these groups, by their very nature, play a primary role in shaping the attitudes and beliefs of the public as a whole, by shaping attitudes one can also expect to gain a sense of what the public as a whole thinks of these issues. With these objectives in mind, the AIIS compiled a 36-question questionnaire and conducted interviews with 45 respondents from the public administration, military, media and civil society. 4

5 Executive Summary The survey shows that support for Albania s NATO accession is very high for the general sample. Thus 91.3 would vote in favour of Albania joining NATO if a hypothetical referendum were to be held on the morrow of the day the survey was conducted. The percentages vary for each of the categories with a high of 94.6 of yes voters in the military and a low of 86.8 in the civil society. Civil society also had the highest percentage of undecided voters with 12.1 responding that they do not know how they would vote. Nevertheless only, a meagre 1.8 of the general sample responded that they were against Albania joining NATO. The responses were somewhat less enthusiastic when it came to the importance of Albania s NATO membership. Only 62.3 responded that they deemed this very important, while a further 31.3 evaluated NATO membership to be important but not a priority. A small percentage of 2 replied that they did not find it important at all. Once again, the military was the group that had the highest percentage of very important answers with 76.1, while civil society had the highest percentage of not important at all with 3.3 of the vote. As we see, civil society leads the group of sceptics although one can hardly conclude from these figures that there is any real opposition to NATO membership. However, these figures could be indicative of the beginning of scepticism or even opposition to NATO membership. A majority of respondents associate NATO membership primarily with improved national security for Albania. Thus, the single highest percentage of respondents for the general sample, or 34.8 claimed that improved national security was the main reason why they would vote in favour of NATO membership. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the military assigned the greatest importance to this reason for supporting NATO membership with.7. Nevertheless the reasons fro supporting Albania s NATO integration were by no means confined to a desire for better security. The respondents revealed that they are aware that Albania has much more to gain from joining NATO than a sense of security. Thus 25.4 of the general sample would have voted yes in the hope that NATO membership would strengthen democracy and the rule of law in Albania. Given the repeated emphasis that NATO and NATO member states have placed on reforms associated with the strengthening of democratic institutions and the rule of law it was to be expected that the respondents would associate NATO membership with an improvement and consolidation in these areas. The third most important reason with 23 of the vote, which was a favourite especially with the media and civil society, was the belief that being accepted into NATO would amount to a recognition and confirmation of Albania s Western values. Indeed this can be said to have been one of the main motivations behind the enthusiasm with which Albanians have embraced Euro-Atlantic integration. Further confirmation for this interpretation can be found in the fact that confirmation of Albania s Western values was deemed to be the second most important benefit Albanians expect to gain from NATO membership after the improvement of national security to which 41.3 of the general sample assigned a grade of in a scale of 1. The respondents appear willing to pay most of the costs associated with NATO integration. Thus 79.2 were in support of increasing military spending to 2 of the state budget as opposed to 9.2 who were against the budget increase. On the issue of financing troop deployments, the support was somewhat lower with 74.9 in favour and 12.9 against. Nevertheless, it is clear that the respondents are willing to pay the financial costs for NATO membership although the figures 5

6 involved, although modest by NATO standards, amount to quite a burden for a small and not developed economy such as Albania. The support is somewhat smaller when it comes to the physical danger in which Albanian troops would find themselves deployed in NATO missions with 51.6 supporting them and 31.9 against the deployment. This is quite an important figure that shows that the Albanian public is quite sensitive to the body-bag phenomenon and that they appear reluctant to place their troops in harm s way. It is also important as to date no surveys of this nature have been undertaken in order to evaluate the support or opposition to deploying troops in conflict areas such as Afghanistan or Iraq. Another cost the respondents appear not so willing to pay relates to the downsizing of Albania s military support such a development while.4 are against while 12 are undecided. There are two possible interpretations for this result. On the one hand, the reluctance to downsize the Albanian military may relate to concerns about security, although such an interpretation appears less likely if one considers that respondents expect NATO membership to improve security. The other and more probable explanation relates to the social costs of such a development. In the recent months, Albania has witnessed several, albeit small scale, demonstrations by former military personnel who have lost their jobs as the result of the reforms. It is perhaps this concern that explains why this cost associated to NATO integration was especially unpopular with the military. Only 48.9 of them were willing to pay this cost while 41.3 were against it, the highest opposition from any of the groups. While the levels of support for NATO integration are quite high, the responses to the question whether Albania is ready to join NATO give cause for caution. Although the single largest group of respondents or 43.5 believed that to be the case, the percentage was lower than half the general sample. The percentage of sceptics was also quite high with 38.2 replying No. The percentage of respondents who did not know was also quite high standing at Public administration was by far the most optimistic of the groups with 58.9 answering yes. This figure however should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt. In the wake of the rotation of power following the elections of July 5, the right wing government replaced much of the existing public administration with its own supporters. It would thus make sense to err on the side of caution when looking at these results as the public administration, now as always, can hardly be expected to be an impartial judge of progress and improvements in the country. In the case of the military on the other hand, 57.6 of them also deemed Albania to be ready the explanation is probably somewhat different. The Albanian military has indeed made progress in NATO relates reforms and as even NATO representatives have pointed out the greatest obstacles to Albania s integration do not so much relate to the state of the military as to political or economic reasons. It is also striking that positive opinion among the media group was much lower standing at 35.2 while in the case of civil society the percentage shrunk to a very meagre Although these two groups have shown a serious lack of information on NATO related issues, they are generally quite well informed on domestic issues and on the pace of reforms in Albania. The fact that such a small percentage of civil society one of whose main functions is precisely to monitor the pace of progress in the country believes the country to be ready shows that Albania is probably not where it should be if it wants to qualify for NATO membership. Civil society is also the most sceptical of the groups when it comes to evaluating the progress made in the last two years. Only 11 of this group was of the opinion that a lot of progress has been made and a further 46.2 responded that some progress has been made. However, 34.1 believe that little progress has been made. For the general sample however 31 believe that a lot of progress has been made and a further 44.5 respondent that Albania has made some progress. In the cased of the 6

7 military, once again positive replies outscored the other groups with a full 51.1 replying that a lot of progress has been made. Once again, it seems that the military is judging the pace of reforms based on their own experience within Albania s armed forces. Nevertheless, the positive opinion the respondents hold on the progress of their country received further confirmation when the respondents were asked to compare Albania s progress to that of other neighbouring countries. Thus although a majority recognized the fact that Croatia is far more progressed than Albania, in all other cases they believed that their country had made better progress. After having evaluated the opinions on the progress of Albania, the next logical step was to ascertain what the respondents understood progress to consist of and what importance they assigned to various factors. Unsurprisingly the military was deemed the most important area where the country should focus its efforts at reform judged this to be the most important factor and 45.5 of the respondents assigned this factor a in a range of 1. Significantly, politics received the second highest percentage of s with 43.1 of the vote followed by failure of rule of law with 35 and the need for free and fair elections with 34.6 granting it a. Religion on the other hand was deemed the least important of all the factors. Whatever the views on the progress of their country, a majority of respondents believes that NATO should accept Albania even if not ready. Thus 58.3 responded positively to this question and only 23.4 believed this should not happen. A further 18.3 were undecided. The percentages were highest among the military and public administration with respectively 68.5 and 64.4 responding positively while even in the case of the media that had the lowest percentage of positive replies more than half the group or 5.4 replied positively. One the one hand one can interpret these figures as being indicative of a desire to join NATO at all costs. If one keeps in mind, the rather positive opinions of the respondents on the scale of progress Albania has made it would appear that they expect NATO to meet them halfway and close an eye to any shortcomings as a reward for the progress made and the will shown to undertake the reforms. On the other hand, the results speak of a worrying lack of local ownership of the process, as the respondents seem to believe that the integration process starts with NATO and ends with Albania. If NATO only wished, it could easily accept Albania whatever its condition, seems to be the prevailing opinion. When one considers the previous results, it becomes somewhat difficult to find the reasons behind the expectations of the respondents concerning the potential year of accession for Albania. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of respondents are quite optimistic concerning the year of membership, with more than three quarters of them expecting that to take place at the latest by. Thus, the single largest group standing at 35 believes to be the likeliest year. The second highest percentage standing at 29.5 believes this will happen in 8. This group however seems to be suffering from a misunderstanding. At the Summit of Bucharest in 8, Albania hopes to receive an invitation into NATO, but in itself this would not amount to NATO membership and Albania would have to wait for some time yet before actual membership. It is hard to say whether the expectations of the respondents were shaped by their trust in the progress made by Albania or due to some naive belief that NATO will grant Albania membership even if the country is not ready. 7

8 The last area where the AIIS focused in its survey concerned the information the respondents had on NATO. The results revealed a worrying picture. Only the military could be said to possess satisfying levels of information on NATO with 62 responding that they did posses adequate information. In the case of public society, the difference was much narrower with 43.8 responding positively as opposed to 41.8 responding that they did not posses adequate information. The most surprising results of all concerned the media and civil society where only a meagre 15.4 of respondents said that they possessed adequate information. The fact that the groups that are supposed to play a very important monitoring and informing role in society had such poor levels of information was in itself a cause for concern. What made matters even worse however was the fact that for all four groups a majority of over 85 responded that they could find information on NATO if they so wished! 8

9 Recommendations The report reveals that Albania s NATO integration enjoys very high levels of support among the four groups surveyed. All four groups think of NATO integration as being either very important of important and an overwhelming majority would vote positively in a hypothetical referendum on the issue. The respondents show quite a mature evaluation of the benefits they expect to gain from membership stressing the security aspect but not neglecting other important areas such as improvements in democracy and confirmation of Western values. Nevertheless, the report also reveals that serious misunderstandings and lack of information do exist even among four groups that are supposed to be some of the best informed in Albania. Furthermore, there appears to be a serious lack of local ownership in the process of integration. The results give rise to a number of recommendations for all the actors involved in the survey as well as for the Albanian government and NATO. In the first place, the high levels of support for NATO membership and the high importance respondents place on membership provide the Albanian government with a number of opportunities: - The government should utilize the support in order to undertake and implement the needed reforms, which can be painful and encounter opposition. The fact that such high percentages of these groups support NATO membership is indicative of the broader popular support that NATO integration enjoys. Furthermore, these groups are precisely the most affected and whose support is vital in order to complete the judicial, military and electoral reforms. Thus, their support gives a quite significant leverage to the government. - The survey reveals that although supportive of Albanian troop deployments abroad, there is significant opposition on the part of these groups. The government should be cautious in not taking their support for granted when placing the lives of Albanian soldiers in peril as such developments might cause support for NATO integration to vane. - The government is correctly considered to bear the greatest responsibility for NATO related reforms, thus making any evaluation of the current state of reforms an evaluation of the work of the government as a whole. The fact that the respondents believe that politics, the rule of law, and the electoral system should be improved should serve as a note of caution to the government on what is expected from it and in what directions its efforts should be focused. The report reveals serious lack of information on NATO and the integration process on the part of significant percentage of respondents. Misconceptions and misunderstandings persist and the information is lacking on the conditions and reforms needed to take the country into NATO. Given the position of these groups and the public role, they are supposed to play in keeping society as a whole informed on NATO integration issues this situation is unacceptable and cannot continue much longer. Therefore, it becomes imperative for these groups to: Civil society and media should make an effort to gain a better understanding of NATO and the integration process. The fact that such overwhelming percentages of all groups do not posses adequate information on NATO although they could do so if they wished is inexcusable. Ignorance of these issues is bound to reflect in the public, which relies on them for information, thus making it imperative that they improve their levels of information. 9

10 The government should reach out to these groups and through them to all citizens through information campaigns designed to explain and elucidate the different aspects of the integration process and of what NATO membership entails. Do more to establish local ownership of the process. Such a step is needed if the government wants to enjoy the support of these groups in the painful reforms it needs to undertake. Explain their costs and benefits and invite them to participate because they have a right to. The government should not abdicate from its responsibilities in keeping the public informed. It has become clear from the responses to the survey that the overwhelming majority of respondents hold the government responsible for informing them and that misunderstandings on the nature of NATO and the integration process persist. Cooperate with local authorities, the media, schools, businesses in organizing ways of informing the public through public awareness campaigns, TV programs and documentaries, publications, translations, lectures and workshops in Tirana and in other regions of the country. Carry out studies, surveys, analysis on the different aspects of the integration process, and the reforms Albania need to undertake, and disseminate such information to the public at large. NATO representatives in Albania should raise its profile and become more accessible and active in providing information on the integration process. The study showed that thus far this institution has not play a significant played a role in informing the Albanian public.

11 Sample Description General Sample As can be seen from figure 1 the general sample reflects a rough equilibrium between males and females, although males are slightly better represented. Thus 5.4f the sample or 226 respondents were males, 47.5 or 213 were female while the gender of 9 respondents was not ascertained. Figure 1. Gender distribution of the responders Sex No. responder Percent MALE FEMALE Not verified 9 2. Total 448. The single largest group of respondents, 146 or 32.6 of them came from the public administration, followed by respondents employed in the military forces who represented the second largest group with 92 respondents or.5 of the sample. This group was followed closely by two groups of equal size representing the media and civil society constituting.3 of the sample or 91 respondents each. The remaining 24 respondents came from various other employment backgrounds such as teachers. Figure 2. Place of Employment Percent Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs Media Military Forces and Academia) Q2_Place of Employment Other 11

12 Due to their professional backgrounds, it comes as no surprise that the overwhelming majority of the respondents are well educated. Thus, only 2.2 of the sample or a mere respondents had not completed university studies. The single largest group, 65.2 had completed their university studies while a considerable portion of 31.5 has also completed postgraduate studies. Figure 3. Education levels Q3_Education Level 6 Percent Middle School High School University Postgraduate Q3_Education Level As for the age of the sample the single largest group,.8 were between 26 and 35 years of age, followed by respondents between 36 and 55 years of age who represented the second largest group standing at were between 18 and 25 years old while only 5.1 were older than 55. In the whole, one can say that the respondents represented a relatively young sample. Figure 4. Age Distribution of Respondents Age Distribution () Over 55 years old years old years old years old 12

13 SURVEY FINDINGS General Knowledge about NATO The first aim of the survey was to evaluate the levels of information of the respondents on some basic facts about NATO. Thus, in question five the respondents were asked to identify the document upon which the Alliance was founded. As we see from the Figure 5, the overwhelming majority of the respondents, 84.2, made the correct choice. Of those who did not correctly identify the North Atlantic Treaty as the founding document of NATO, the single largest group believed the Alliance to be based upon the Charter of the United Nation. The opinion that probably reflects a confusion caused by the close cooperation between NATO and the UN in several areas in the word, and especially in Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Afghanistan which are of special relevance to the Albanian public. However, due to the lack of more detailed information on this issue this must remain for the moment in the realm of speculation. Figure 5. Question5: NATO Alliance was founded at Answers for general sample No. Responder Percent Helsinki Charter United Nations Charter Northern Atlantic Treaty Maastricht Treaty 4.9 Don't know Total 448. As figure 6 shows the military is the better-informed group in relation to question of them as opposed to 87.5 from the group representing respondents of various employments not included in the four main groups who came second and 86.8 of the media. The result seems to hint at a better level of information of the military who in the case of Albania have been more directly involved in the NATO integration than the other groups. In any case, it remains to be seen whether that is indeed true. 13

14 Figure 6. Question5 by Employment Q5_NATO Alliance was founded at United Nations Helsinki Charter Charter Row N Row N Count Count Q2_Place of Northern Atlantic Maastricht Treaty Don't know Employment Treaty Row N Row N Count Count Count Public Administration ,4 Civil Society (NGOs and ,2 Academia) Media , Military Forces ,3 Other , Row N When asked on the year when NATO was founded, once again the overwhelming majority or 69.2 made the correct choice of Nevertheless this time the percentage of correct answers, was significantly lower than in the responses to question 5. (See figure 7) Figure 7. Question 7: When was NATO founded in? Answers for general sample Frequency Percent Don't know 4.5 Total 448. In the replies to question 7 it was the public administration group that had the highest percentage of correct answers of this group provided the correct answer as opposed to 23.9 from the military which constituted the second best informed category. (see figure 8) 14

15 Figure 8. Question 7 by employment Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) Media Military Forces Other Don't know In the responses to question 8 once again the majority of respondents provided the correct answers. However there was a significant degree of confusion in the responses which varied from country to country. It is perhaps not surprising that the USA received the highest percentage of correct answers, with 93.3 of the respondents correctly identifying it as a NATO member, followed by Greece with 92.2 and Turkey with a somewhat smaller percentage of correct answers. What came as somewhat of a surprise, given the levels of education and professional background of the respondents, is the fact that a considerable percentage of them,.3, identified Russia as a NATO member. (see figure 9) Figure 9. Question 8: Which of the following are NATO members? Answers for general sample YES NO Don't know Austria USA Russia Greece Switzerland Turkey Belgium Bulgaria 15

16 When the replies to question 8 were divided according to category the most noticeable fact concerned the percentage of incorrect answers provided by the media group on the case of Russia. 43 of this group, more than twice the figure for the general sample, was of the opinion that Russia is a member of NATO; a fact that does not comment well on the levels of information on international politics of this group who bears significant responsibility for informing the public at large as well as the other groups surveyed. Figure. Question 8/3 by employment Q8_3_Russia is a NATO member? 5 Q2_Place of Employment: Media Percent YES NO Q8_3_Russia is a NATO member? Don't know In the answers to question 11 too there was some confusion. Thus although a majority gave correct answers in the case of Kosovo (76.1 yes), Bosnia and Herzegovina (75.4 yes), Afghanistan (81.3 yes) and Israel (63.6 no) in the case of Iraq the majority, 51.3 made the wrong choice. It must also be noted that in the case of Israel and Iraq quite significant numbers of respondents were not able to provide an answer due to their lack of knowledge on the issue. (see figure 11). When analyzed by place of employment the answers reveal a confused picture with each of the groups providing the highest percentage of correct answers in one case and the lowest in others, thus making it impossible to draw any far reaching conclusions or comparisons between the various groups, except that they all are short of information on these issues. 16

17 Figure 11. Question 11. Where does NATO have a mission?) Answers for the general sample, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5,,,,, YES NO Don't know, Kosovo Iraq Bosnia&H. Afganistan Israel In response to question 6 a majority correctly identified ensuring the collective defense of member states as the main goal of NATO with 68.1 of the respondents or 5 of them making this choice. The second largest group 19.6 thought of the promotion of peace and democracy as the main mission of NATO while a further 7.8 saw NATO as engaged mainly in the protection of the values of Western civilization. The smallest group if the 1.1 who did not know are excluded or 3.3 of the respondents thought that NATO s mission was to fight terrorism. Although these choices were wrong it is easy to understand why the respondents may have been confused given the ever more active role that NATO has played in promoting peace and democracy and fighting terrorism in the years following the end of the Cold War as well as its engagement in Afghanistan. (see figure 12) Figure 12 Question 6: What is the main goal of NATO? Answers for general sample No. Resp. Percent Ensure the collective defense of member states Protect the values of the western civilization Fight terrorism Promote peace and democracy Don't know Total

18 It is interesting to note that, as can be seen in figure, in relation to question 6 males gave a significantly higher percentage of correct answers than females. Almost twice as high a percentage of females than male ones thought that NATO s main mission was to fight terrorism. Figure 13 Answers to Question 6 by Gender MALE FEMALE Not verified 6 5 Ensure the collective defense of member states Protect the values of the western civilization Fight terrorism Promote peace and democracy A similar pattern of correct and incorrect replies as in question 6 can also be discerned in the replies to question 9 relating to the decision making in NATO in case of attack against a non-member state (see figure 14). Thus although the majority of respondents, 52.7 or 236 of them, correctly responded that such a decision has to be taken unanimously, quite a large percentage of respondents, 25.2 and 13.6 respectively, incorrectly believed that the decision would be taken by either a qualified majority vote or by a simple majority vote. Figure 14. Question 9: In cases of use of NATO violence towards a non-member state, how is the decision made? Answers to Question 9 for general sample Frequency Percent The decision is made by the United States of America by the NATO military commander by the NATO member states by simple majority vote by the NATO member states by qualified majority vote by NATO member states in unanimity Total 448. Surprisingly when the replied are analyzed in accordance with the place of employment, it appears that the public administration group is the best informed of them as opposed to 28.9 from the military who came in second gave the correct answers. It is gradually becoming clear that the 18

19 military is not necessarily the best informed group although they are without a doubt the group of professionals more directly involved in the process. Another troubling trend that is starting to become clear relates to the poor levels of information on the part of the media group and the civil society groups (see figure 15). Figure 15. Question 9 by employment Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) Media Military Forces Other The decision is made by the United States of America by the NATO military commander by the NATO member states by simple majority vote by the NATO member states by qualified majority vote by NATO member states in unanimity As can be seen from figure 16, the respondents have given various answers which due to a flaw in the conception of the question and with the exception of is not obliged to respond, can all to some extent be seen as correct. Thus member states are obliged to respond militarily (.1 of respondents), but that response will be conducted in accordance with orders coming from Brussels (55.4) and, in accordance with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty members are obliged to respond as they deem appropriate. In short it would be hard to draw any conclusions on the knowledge of the respondents based on the replied to this question. In any case it is clear that the overwhelming majority of respondents are aware that the Alliance is obliged to respond to any attack on its member states. 19

20 Figure 16. Question : In cases of an attack of a non-member state on a NATO member state, each member state of the alliance is obliged to: Answers to Question for general sample 6 Q_NATO Decisions_attack FROM 5 Percent Is not obliged to re Respond as it deems Respond to the aggre Don't know Comply to the orders Q_NATO Decisions_attack FROM a non-membe

21 NATO and Albania The second section of the interview aimed to evaluate the level of information on the part of the respondents as it concerns Albania s relationship to NATO. Thus, question 12 presented the respondents with three different sub-questions regarding the Partnership for Peace, the Adriatic Charter and the involvement of Albania in NATO led missions. In the replies to question 12/1 a majority or 53.3 gave incorrect answers, while only a small percentage of 17.6 was aware that Albania was indeed the first former Communist country that applied for NATO membership (see figure 17). Figure 17. Question 12/1: Which of the following answers is true about NATO s relationship with Albania: Was Albania the First former Communist country to apply for membership? Frequency Percent YES NO Don't know The question is not clear! 47.5 Total 448. In the responses to question 12/2 concerning the Partnership for Peace the overwhelming majority of respondents, 83 provided the correct answer (see figure 18). Indeed it would have been surprising had they not done so given the publicity this has received in Albania. It is also becoming clear that in matters concerning Albania directly the respondents posses high levels of information, as opposed to a serious lack of information on NATO matters that do not direcvtly relate to Albania. Figure 18. Question 12/2: Which of the following answers is true about NATO s relationship with Albania: Has Albania has signed the document for Partnership for Peace? Frequency Percent YES NO Don't know Total

22 Similarly in response to question 12/3 once again the overwhelming majority of respondents correctly identified Albania as being a member of the Adriatic Charter. It is however somewhat surprising that a significant percentage of respondents 17.6 are not aware of this very publicized development. (see figure 19) Figure 19. Question 12/3: Which of the following answers is true about NATO s relationship with Albania: Is Albania is a member of Adriatic Charter Frequency Percent YES NO Don't know Total 448. In the responses to question 12/4 once again the absolute majority of respondents 84.4, of those interviewed provided the correct answer. In this case too the publicity these deployments have received in Albania probably account for the good levels of information. (see figure ) Figure. Question 12/4: Which of the following answers is true about NATO s relationship with Albania: Does Albania take part in military mission in B&H and Afghanistan? Frequency Percent YES NO 45. Don't know Total 448. The replies to question 13 however show that the respondents still have lack of information on some basic issues concerning Albania s history with NATO. Thus the single largest group of 175 respondents, or 39.1 of the sample identified December 1994 or the time when Albania joined the Partnership for Peace as the time when Albania applied for NATO membership, when in fact Albania had done so two years earlier, in December 1992, as 25.7 of the respondents correctly replied (see figure 21). 22

23 Figure 21. Question 13: Albania has applied for membership in: Frequency Percent December December December December Don't know Total 448. In the responses to question 14 although a majority of respondents were aware of the Reform Plan (6.9) a significant number of respondents replied negatively. All in all one can say that the levels of information on the relations between Albania and NATO although generally satisfactory leave room for improvement, especially if one keeps in mind that the groups interviewed probably represent the best informed sections of Albanian society (see figure 22). Figure 22. Question 14: Have you heard of the 1- Reform Plan approved by the Albanian government with the goal to prepare the Albanian armed forces for NATO membership? Heard of 1- Reform Plan? YES NO Don't know In the replies to question 14 the military provided by far the highest percentage of positive answers with 85.9 as opposed to 68.5 for the public administration which came second. These groups that are directly involved in the implementation of the reform are much better informed on the existence of the plan while the media and civil society although one would have expected them at the very least to show awareness of the existence of the plan gave a very small percentage of positive answers (see figure 23). 23

24 Figure 23. Question 14 by employment Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) Media Military Forces Other YES NO Don't know 24

25 Evaluation of NATO Given the nature of NATO and its concern with security the AIIS staff decided to evaluate the perceptions of threats to security of the respondents before continuing with the evaluation of NATO. Thus in question 16 the respondents were presented with a number of potential threats to Albania s security and invited to evaluate them on a scale of 1 to where 1 meant that the threat was not at all serious and meant that the threat was very serious. As can be seen from figure 24 opinions of the respondents on the possibility of Albania s security being threatened by attack from another country are divided. The single largest group thought of this threat as not being important at all, but the second largest group on the other hand thought of attack by another country as being a very important threat to security. The tense situation in the region, the historical mistrust between neighbors in the Balkans, as well as the traditional concern about the threat their country faced from outside enemies, nurtured during decades of Communist isolation are probably the factors behind this evaluation. Figure 24. Question 16: The security of Albania may be threatened by many factors. Evaluate on a scale from 1 to the following factors, bearing in mind that the higher the number, the more important you consider the factor to be: 1- the factor is not at all important, - the factor is very important. Question 16/1: Military threat from another country. Percent Q16_1_Military attack by another country Of all the groups surveyed the media seems to be the most worried about military attacks on Albania by another country, as can be seen from figure 25, while the public administration reveals the lowest level of concern with such an eventuality. 25

26 Figure 25. Question 16 by employment Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) Media Military Forces Other Level 5of Importance Nevertheless as figure 26 shows the threat stemming from the Kosovo status is correctly deemed as being much more serious in nature. The single largest group of respondents assigned a to this threat, while only very small groups assigned this factor grades lower than 5. These figures go to the high level if uncertainty and concern shared by most Albanians on the potential consequences of the Kosovo issue to the region as a whole as especially to Albania which is bound to be affected very closely by any developments in Kosovo. Although the percentages varied from one category to the other, on the whole all respondents deemed this threat to be quite serious. Figure 26. Question 16/2: Threats from unclear status of Kosovo. Percent Q16_2_Unclear status of Kosovo 26

27 On Macedonia once again the opinions were divided, although one must say that the balance favors those who did not deem this factor to be a very serious threat to Albania s security (see figure 27). Nevertheless a significant percentage of respondents do consider the destabilization of Macedonia as a potentially serious threat to Albania. On this point too the opinions of the different categories were broadly similar. Figure 27. Question 16/ Percent Q16_3_Potential destabilization in Macedonia In replies to question 16/4 the respondents revealed that threats stemming from poverty and economic issues were in their opinion more serious. Given the high levels of crime Albania suffers from and the close connection between poverty and crime this evaluation does not come as a surprise, nor does the fact that all the categories viewed these factors with some apprehension. Figure 28, Question 16/ Percent Q16_5_Poverty and economic issues 27

28 Asked on the issue of religion as a threat to security figure 29 reveals that an overwhelming majority of respondents do not deem this issue to be relevant to the Albanian context. Given the historically excellent inter-religious relations in Albania, which has never experienced the horrors of wars between various religious groups these evaluations do not come as a surprise at all. In fact these results can be seen as further confirmation of the fact that the importance of being Albanian transcends any sense of religious belonging. Figure 29, Question 16/5 Percent Q16_6_Religious conflicts Property rights too, which have plagued Albania ever since the collapse of the Communist system, were not deemed to be important. Although these issues have caused some social conflicts and tensions, the groups or individuals involved in such disputes are very small to represent a threat to Albania and to their credit most have traditionally followed the legal course of action in order to solve their problems (see figure ). Figure, Question 16/6 Percent Q16_7_Property issues 28

29 Terrorism on the other hand was deemed to be a very serious threat with a majority of respondents assigning grades in the top half of the scale. Albania s involvement in the so-called War on Terror by sending small contingents of troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, a small number of high profile arrests of suspected international terrorists in Albania in the near past have probably contributed to raising awareness on this issue among those interviewed. However given the fact that thus far Albania has been spare the horrors of a terrorist attack, it is not surprising that this factor was not assigned the same importance as the issue of Kosovo s status (see figure 31). Figure 31. Question 16/7 Percent Q16_8_Terrorism The military and the public administration assigned the highest importance to terrorism as a threat to Albania perhaps unsurprisingly give the emphasis the government has placed on its role, albeit modest, in the War on Terror. As far as the military is concerned this awareness of the threat from terrorism seems to reflect the changing nature of the Albanian armed forces and the shift in focus from conventional forces deployed in the defense of the country towards a more versatile and easily deployable force that can be used in combating terrorism or asymmetrical combat, in line with the vision of transformation of NATO. Figure 32 Question 16/8 by employment Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) Media Military Forces Other Level 5of Importance

30 The issue of globalization was also not deemed to constitute a very serious threat to security, by the general sample as well as by the various categories, although a small percentage seems to evaluate it as somewhat of a threat to Albania (see figure 33). Figure 33, Question 16/8 Percent Q16_9_Globalization Perhaps not surprisingly when asked to identify which foreign country the respondents deemed to pose a more serious threat to Albania, the United States of America, had the best score, i.e. by far the highest percentage of grades of 1 in a scale of 1 to, approximating 8 of the general sample. Serbia on the other hand (see figure 34) was perceived as the greatest threat to Albania s security with more than half the respondents assigning grades in the top half of the scale. Thus 19.4 assigned a ten, 14.7 a nine, and.9 an eight a further 15.5 was roughly split between a six or a seven. Given the tense situation over the future independence of Kosovo as well as the perception of the respondents on the threat originating from that issue such a result was to be expected. Figure 34. Question 17. If you think the security of Albania could be threatened by another country, evaluate on a scale 1 to the following countries. Bear in mind that the higher the number, the more important you consider the factor to be: 1 the factor is not at all important, the factor is very important. Perception of Serbia as threat. Percent Q17_1_Threatened by Serbia

31 But while the grades assigned to Serbia could hardly have come as a surprise, the fact that Greece was ranked as the second highest perceived threat to Albania was indeed unexpected. Although the two countries have had their share of disputes and tense moments, in recent years relations between the two countries have been good. It is thus hard to explain the 41.1 who assigned grades of between and 7 to the seriousness of the threat coming from Greece (see figure 35). Figure 35. Question 17. Perception of Greece as threat. Percent Q17_4_Threatened by Greece The results on Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy and Russia on the other hand, although they varied somewhat from country to country, revealed that the respondents do not perceive any of them as posing a serious threat to Albania. For instance Russia which was perceived as the most serious threat of all four countries received a mere 14.4 of grades in the 8 range (see figure 36). Figure 36. Question 17. Perception of Russia as threat. Percent Q17_6_Threatened by Russia 31

32 Given the perceptions of threats the respondents hold as well as the enthusiasm that has generally characterized Albanians during their country s efforts in meeting the criteria required for Euro- Atlantic integration it was perhaps to be expected that the majority of respondents, 62.3 consider Albania s integration in NATO as very important. A further 31.3 think of NATO integration as important although not a priority and only a meager 2 deemed as not important at all. Figure 37. Question 18: Personal importance of Albania s integration in NATO Frequency Percent Very important Important, but not a priority Not at all important 9 2. DON'T KNOW 4.5 Total 448. As figure 38 shows the military are the most enthusiastic group about NATO integration with 76.1 saying that they find it very important as opposed to 68.5 from the public administration who had the second highest score. Nevertheless when the first two responses are combined, i.e. those that find it very important and those who find it important but not a priority the differences are reduced significantly. (see figure 38). Figure 38 Question 18 by employment Q2_Place of Employment Civil Society Q18_Important? Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Count Column N Count Column N Count Count Column N Count Very important Important, but not a priority Not at all important I DON'T KNOW Total The positive attitude of the respondents vis-à-vis NATO integration is demonstrated even more clearly in the responses to question 19. A full 91.3 would vote yes in a hypothetical referendum on integration, while only 1.8 were against (see figure 39). These results once again show how 32

33 committed these categories of Albanian elites and one suspects the population as a whole are to integration in NATO 15 years after Albania first applied for membership. Figure 39. Question 19. If a referendum were held tomorrow regarding Albania s membership in NATO, how would you vote? Would you vote For membership, or Against? Q19_Vote for NATO? 8 Percent 6 For Against Q19_Vote for NATO? I don't know Once again the military was the most enthusiastic group with 94.6 saying they would vote in favor of NATO integration as opposed to 93.4 for the media who came second. The least enthusiastic of the four main categories were the civil society where 86.8 would have voted yes. It must also be noted that for each of the groups the percentage who is undecided is far more significant that the percentage of those who would vote against. This percentage is highest in the case of the civil society group where 12.1 are undecided. Figure. Question 19 by employment Q19_Vote for NATO? Q2_Place of Employment Public Civil Society (NGOs Administration and Academia) Media Military Forces Other Count Count Count Count Count For Against I don't know Total